Rob Ford: Scholar, Lover, Poet

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Post #101 by MP » Thu Aug 28, 2014 1:15 pm



They won a big game, who are we to question the coaching strategies of a winning coach?!
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Post #102 by senate » Fri Aug 29, 2014 9:14 pm

Yeah it's old, but it's new to me, damnit.

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Post #103 by PPJ » Tue Sep 02, 2014 10:17 pm

Latest polls have Tory 14 in front of Ford, 16 in front of Chow. Great news for Toronto if it holds.

Bad news for lovers of comedy.
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Post #104 by Dog » Wed Sep 03, 2014 7:56 am

Ford is ahead of Chow?
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Post #105 by habfan4 » Wed Sep 03, 2014 9:44 am

Dog wrote:Ford is ahead of Chow?


Not surprising. Olivia Chow is a spent force politically without smiling Jack. She has no widespread appeal and her electoral triumphs of the past were in one of the most orange ridings/wards in the entire country (Trinity/Spadina)
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Post #106 by habfan4 » Wed Sep 03, 2014 9:58 am

Big#D wrote:it also doesn't help that she wants to take away an additional $20k+ from rich people every time they sell their houses.


I'm sure that appeals to renters and others who don't live in two million dollar homes.

I'm really hoping Tory manages to pull it off. Having a grown up centrist running the City would be a nice change of pace.
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Post #107 by habfan4 » Wed Sep 03, 2014 10:10 am

Big#D wrote:it'll be interesting to say the least. that's quite the list of recent mayors. that david miller is the most sane one in almost 20 years, is a damning indictment on the city.


It defies logic that mongs like Lastman and Ford were elected :facepalm:
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Post #108 by Craig » Wed Sep 03, 2014 10:30 am

habfan4 wrote:Not surprising. Olivia Chow is a spent force politically without smiling Jack. She has no widespread appeal and her electoral triumphs of the past were in one of the most orange ridings/wards in the entire country (Trinity/Spadina)


It's a little surprising just because she held a lead much like Tory's for about a year, then seems to have had her support disappear for what seems like no reason.

I'm pulling for Tory too, although that's largely on reputation. I haven't bothered to look into the policy differences between him and Chow yet, nor will I bother if Ford is 2nd in the polls in the runup to the election.
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Post #109 by PPJ » Wed Sep 03, 2014 11:19 am

Big#D wrote:it also doesn't help that she wants to take away an additional $20k+ from rich people every time they sell their houses.


That's not necessarily a bad idea. It's just her idea of rich that probably makes people nervous. In her world, Craig selling his newly renovated place would be considered 'rich'.
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Post #110 by PPJ » Wed Sep 03, 2014 11:22 am

Craig wrote:It's a little surprising just because she held a lead much like Tory's for about a year, then seems to have had her support disappear for what seems like no reason.

I'm pulling for Tory too, although that's largely on reputation. I haven't bothered to look into the policy differences between him and Chow yet, nor will I bother if Ford is 2nd in the polls in the runup to the election.


Believe it or not, most Torontonians believe in the basic Ford message. Too much tax and expenses are too high. Not suprising that the two right wing candidates are pulling in about 65% combined support. Now if that 30% that support Ford, would come to their senses and throw with Tory, who in essense stands for alot of what they believe in, Toronto might have a respectable mayor for a change.
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Post #111 by PPJ » Wed Sep 03, 2014 11:27 am

Big#D wrote:craig's house wouldn't be hit by that, but i'm guessing if craig's renovated place were to sell in say five years, it'd be just under half that amount.

and 20k extra on the sale of a home is a lot. especially when the city's land transfer tax under the current amount is already 40k. 60k in total could make you go from making a decent profit to losing your shirt on selling your home.


Eat the rich D.

That said, I don't think to many houses sell at that level. Doesn't seem like that big of an overall revenue producer.
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Post #112 by Craig » Wed Sep 03, 2014 11:30 am

Big#D wrote:craig's house wouldn't be hit by that, but i'm guessing if craig's renovated place were to sell in say five years, it'd be just under half that amount.

and 20k extra on the sale of a home is a lot. especially when the city's land transfer tax under the current amount is already 40k. 60k in total could make you go from making a decent profit to losing your shirt on selling your home.


Yeah, having a $2 million house still means you're rich, even in Toronto. My house is like a third of that.
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Post #113 by PPJ » Wed Sep 03, 2014 11:40 am

Craig wrote:Yeah, having a $2 million house still means you're rich, even in Toronto. My house is like a third of that.


My house is worth more than Craig's :chicken:
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Post #114 by Ernie » Wed Sep 03, 2014 11:41 am

Psycho Papa Joe wrote:Believe it or not, most Torontonians believe in the basic Ford message. Too much tax and expenses are too high. Not suprising that the two right wing candidates are pulling in about 65% combined support. Now if that 30% that support Ford, would come to their senses and throw with Tory, who in essense stands for alot of what they believe in, Toronto might have a respectable mayor for a change.


It's weird, but that message might be somewhat accurate. Taxes are about double in Toronto as they are in Vancouver. Toronto is on the hook for more things, like some transit and social housing related stuff, but it's hard to figure out how that doubles the taxation levels.
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Post #115 by Craig » Wed Sep 03, 2014 11:50 am

Ernie wrote:It's weird, but that message might be somewhat accurate. Taxes are about double in Toronto as they are in Vancouver. Toronto is on the hook for more things, like some transit and social housing related stuff, but it's hard to figure out how that doubles the taxation levels.


Vancouver has by far the lowest taxes of any major Canadian municipality. Toronto is actually considerably below the national average.

Big#D wrote:yeah, but then you raise property taxes, so that you get that money over time.

if you raise the land transfer tax for rich people, it becomes an impediment to sales. it also has a trickle down impact on lower end homes in that people wanting to move up are going to be blocked because the people above them are less willing to sell. fewer sales equates to higher housing prices, which in turn squeezes out the lower end home buyers. and those people would be renting instead, increasing the demand for rental properties, which also increases the prices of rents.

olivia chow's platform to tax the rich would also have a negative impact of the poor, the people who she thinks she's championing.


600 home sales in the region in the last couple of years with that value. It wouldn't impact the lower end at all.
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Post #116 by PPJ » Wed Sep 03, 2014 11:52 am

Craig wrote:Vancouver has by far the lowest taxes of any major Canadian municipality. Toronto is actually considerably below the national average.



600 home sales in the region in the last couple of years with that value. It wouldn't impact the lower end at all.


Well that's just bad policy. Pissing off people with money for a mere 6mil in revenue is just dumb. No wonder Tory's support is increasing at her expense.
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Post #117 by mayoradamwest » Wed Sep 03, 2014 11:57 am

Not sure I trust municipal polls. Ford voters seem like the most likely to answer a poll, but then it's tricky.
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Post #118 by Ernie » Wed Sep 03, 2014 11:58 am

You shouldn't really trust any polls. Methodology is fucked in this day and age.

What you can do is look at polls put out by a polling firm using the same methodology to look for trends. But the top line numbers are ass more often than not.

Polling averages are better, or a weighted model like Nate Silver's. But you need a lot more polls in the field for those to work.
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Post #119 by habfan4 » Wed Sep 03, 2014 12:08 pm

mayoradamwest wrote:Not sure I trust municipal polls. Ford voters seem like the most likely to answer a poll, but then it's tricky.


Normally I'd be inclined to agree. However given the carnival barker antics of the Ford brothers I think the polling might be accurate this time out. Ford voters might be more likely to answer polls but people who are fed up with Mayor crackhead are equally motivated.
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Post #120 by Craig » Wed Sep 03, 2014 12:30 pm

Psycho Papa Joe wrote:Well that's just bad policy. Pissing off people with money for a mere 6mil in revenue is just dumb. No wonder Tory's support is increasing at her expense.


Meh, she had been criticized for getting away from her base. So far she's mostly pandered to the middle and her support has evaporated. So now she's veering left and hoping there are enough votes there to top the Tory/Ford split.
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Post #121 by habfan4 » Wed Sep 03, 2014 12:42 pm

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Post #122 by Craig » Wed Sep 03, 2014 12:47 pm

Ford made 14 transit promises in the last election and kept none of them. At least he's not pretending corporations will pay for it all this time around.
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Post #123 by clawfirst » Wed Sep 03, 2014 12:59 pm

So far bobert has indeed lied to me the best about solving transit/congestion...

uh oh
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Post #124 by habfan4 » Wed Sep 03, 2014 2:09 pm

I think we should extend the Yonge subway line all the way to the Ring of Fire. We could get a mining company to pay the freight. It's win-win.
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Post #125 by Craig » Wed Sep 03, 2014 2:14 pm

Underground the whole way. Can't have Magnetewan operating on a two-tier transit system.
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Post #126 by Craig » Wed Sep 03, 2014 2:39 pm

It's easy enough to do, you just have to confuse Magnetewan the town with Magnetewan the river or the lake and you've basically got it.

I can't remember who it was, but that was here.
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Post #127 by mayoradamwest » Wed Sep 03, 2014 4:57 pm

Ernie wrote:You shouldn't really trust any polls. Methodology is fucked in this day and age.

What you can do is look at polls put out by a polling firm using the same methodology to look for trends. But the top line numbers are ass more often than not.

Polling averages are better, or a weighted model like Nate Silver's. But you need a lot more polls in the field for those to work.


Yeah, I like 308.com but when you average municipal numbers it's kinda.. Meh. I guess Toronto is better to do than elsewhere.
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Post #128 by Transplanted Caper » Wed Sep 03, 2014 4:59 pm

Tory's advantage may be as a compromise candidate. Both Chow and Ford are both pretty polarizing. Among those who are 'unattached' voters, I'd imagine Tory is the most palatable compared to either Chow or Ford.

The Nanos poll also had Tory leading throughout the GTA, other than in Etobicoke where he still trails Ford. He was ahead on questions of competence and trustworthiness, and his transit plan was more popular than either of his main opponents. Things can change, and this poll could be wrong, but from top to bottom it gives Tory a big advantage even if the topline numbers tighten.
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Post #129 by clawfirst » Wed Sep 03, 2014 5:09 pm

whenever they auto poll me on the phone I have been pressing Tory's buttons. though I may just spoil or decline another god damn ballot.

polls are stupid.
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Post #130 by AD » Wed Sep 03, 2014 7:36 pm

Psycho Papa Joe wrote:My house is worth more than Craig's :chicken:


:stare:
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Post #131 by Ernie » Thu Sep 04, 2014 12:08 am

mayoradamwest wrote:Yeah, I like 308.com but when you average municipal numbers it's kinda.. Meh. I guess Toronto is better to do than elsewhere.


The guy who runs it is no Nate Silver. Kinda funny watching him make justifications for blowing provincial elections.

But even then, Silver came up with a huge turd when he tried to build a model for the UK election. His tactics don't work very well when it comes to multipolar parliamentary systems.
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Post #132 by Fruity Pebbles » Thu Sep 04, 2014 1:39 am

How dare you criticize the greatness that is Nate Silver.
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Post #133 by Craig » Thu Sep 04, 2014 11:13 am

So I took the time to look into my local riding today. It's actually a pretty interesting race. OK fine, a relatively interesting race. Slightly more interesting than nothing.

The incumbent is Paula Fletcher. She's a NDP crony who has held the riding ever since Jack Layton left. Basically everything you would assume comes along with that is true. She opposed the pedestrian link to the Island airport, which is a minus for me. She's also widely seen as one of the more partisan members of city hall, I think she's part of the cohort that's just as responsible for the gridlock at city hall as the far right are. She also walked uninvited into my house one day when Claw and I were there and I really didn't enjoy interacting with her at all. I want to turf her.

Her top challenger is Liz West. She lost the election last time around by like 300 votes. She's a relative political newcomer, who is more famous for being an entertainment reporter and TV personality. She makes a big deal out of promoting herself as an independent, but really she's right-leaning in general. Not as crazy as the Ford clan though, I think. Her main talking points seem to be making connected bike paths (good), getting a law on the books that once a transit project is approved council can't change it (I want to think this is bad, but Toronto has such a long history of scrapping started transit projects to our detriment it seems necessary now) and the normal shitting all over the incumbents and partisan garbage at city hall. She's also a bit of a fox.

Then there's Jane Farrow. Author, LBGT activist, radio host and executive director of Jane's Walk. She's very progressive and she's coming at Fletcher from the left, basically saying she's only running because it looks like West is going to beat Fletcher, so she wants to give the left a place to vote that has a chance at winning. Her big thing seems to be urban planning, she talks a lot about working with developers to make sure things like green spaces, bike lanes and walkability make it into development planning (good). Her campaign seems totally devoid of actual positions though. I get the sense she likes bike lanes and is a big community-type, but I don't get the feeling there's much in the way of actual vision there.

I think I'm going to vote for West. I'm a little worried that she's too green and will end up out of her depth, but the upside of a rational centrist is too good to ignore. Plus she's cute, which is nice.
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Post #134 by Craig » Thu Sep 04, 2014 11:34 am

Big#D wrote:doesn't "coming from the left" and wanting "to give the left a place to vote that has a chance at winning" contradict one another in that she's essentially just splitting the left of centre vote even further?


Pretty much. But the left vote is pretty big in this riding, so it's possible that she could win if she takes back the "center" from West, which is actually left-leaning, and decimate Fletcher's support from her base. It's actually a lot like John Tory running against Ford in the main campaign, just with left and right switched.
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Post #135 by habfan4 » Thu Sep 04, 2014 11:47 am

I'm in Ward 28 - Toronto Centre. Incumbent is Pam McConnell who I can't fucking stand and who unfortunately wins by a landslide. The demographics of the Ward have changed somewhat so perhaps Howard Bortenstein (her only challenger with any kind of name recognition) might have a shot at unseated her.
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Post #136 by Murphy » Thu Sep 04, 2014 1:16 pm

I wish it was as simple as when I was in Quebec and only had to vote Liberal.
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Post #137 by Transplanted Caper » Thu Sep 04, 2014 1:48 pm

Murphy wrote:I wish it was as simple as when I was in Quebec and only had to vote Liberal.


RoFo can slip a couple twenties into a paper bag and give it to you if that makes you feel more comfortable.
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Post #138 by Craig » Thu Sep 04, 2014 2:06 pm

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Post #139 by zamboner » Thu Sep 04, 2014 2:08 pm

Kristyn Wong-Tam will likely get my vote. I have met with her a few times and she knows development in an Adam Vaughan kind of way. She's a mean Asian lesbian who likes to milk developers for Section 37 funds.

John Tory is the poster boy for Nepotism. He has been handed things his whole like, and forgive me for not being in awe of him running the most hated company in Canada. And "Smart-track" sucks balls.

Socknacki is my guy: a pragmatic technocrat who knows the ins and outs of the municipal bureaucracy and budget. Unfortunately a Nenshi-like surge is unlikely, so I will have to hold my nose and vote for Tory or Chow. Chow's campaign has been abysmal though....
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Post #140 by Craig » Thu Sep 04, 2014 2:11 pm

I'm not a fan of the smartrack proposal either. Sucks, I really want to vote for Tory but I think his transit plan is the worst, only because he favours that over the DRL. So I guess I'm for Chow now? Ugh.
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Post #141 by habfan4 » Thu Sep 04, 2014 2:18 pm

Socknacki is unfortunately unelectable. Not surprising that he appeals to broads voters - Deputy Mayor perhaps?

Tory may be a lacklustre candidate but he's miles better than Ford and/or Chow. Ford is a fucking tool and Chow is way too polarizing to effectively build consensus and manage City Hall.

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