Robots will replace us all (including Habs Broads talking nonesense about Costco)

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Post #51 by NyQuil » Thu Aug 14, 2014 1:55 pm

AD wrote:Human labour is slowly getting more expensive.

But more importantly, robot/software labour is quickly getting cheaper.


I'm sure one can draw some kind of diagram with intersecting curves.

Human labour is expensive in the Western world - not so sure about the Third World.

With inflation what it is, is labour actually getting more expensive?
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Post #52 by AD » Thu Aug 14, 2014 1:57 pm

NyQuil wrote:I'm sure one can draw some kind of diagram with intersecting curves.

Human labour is expensive in the Western world - not so sure about the Third World.

With inflation what it is, is labour actually getting more expensive?


Actually, I believe human labour cost is decreasing in the western world. Its increasing in China and India so thats about 1/3 of the world population there.

Ex: In China, labour cost has tripled in 10 years.
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Post #53 by NyQuil » Thu Aug 14, 2014 1:58 pm

AD wrote:Actually, I believe human labour cost is decreasing in the western world.


True, but it's still higher than elsewhere.

AD wrote:Its increasing in China and India so thats about 1/3 of the world population there.


Their economies relied on cheap labour as an advantage.

There's still unspoiled territory out there, no?
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Post #54 by AD » Thu Aug 14, 2014 2:00 pm

NyQuil wrote:True, but it's still higher than elsewhere.



Their economies relied on cheap labour as an advantage.

There's still unspoiled territory out there, no?


I'm sure you can still find places for real cheap labour. Bengladesh comes to mind.

But in any case, accross the board, labour is getting more expensive (slowly) and automation is getting cheaper (fast).
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Post #55 by mayoradamwest » Thu Aug 14, 2014 2:11 pm

Big#D wrote:i'm guessing that even when the west runs out of asian places to make things, they'll start looking towards africa. at least until someone else's economy tanks and the cost of living plummets and the cycle can start again.


If that were true, Newfoundland would have jobs.
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Post #56 by NyQuil » Thu Aug 14, 2014 2:12 pm

mayoradamwest wrote:If that were true, Newfoundland would have jobs.


If drinking was a job, Newfoundland would have 100% employment.
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Post #57 by mayoradamwest » Thu Aug 14, 2014 2:13 pm

NyQuil wrote:If drinking was a job, Newfoundland would have 100% employment.


Or else they'd finally be sober.
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Post #58 by NyQuil » Thu Aug 14, 2014 2:20 pm

Thomas Malthus wrote:Newfoundland's cost of living in St. John's is actually expensive (for housing): http://www.statcan.gc.ca/tables-tableaux/sum-som/l01/cst01/manuf12-eng.htm

Nearly 50 percentage points more expensive than in 2007 and nearly 40 percentage points higher than the country average.

Inflation in Newfoundland is also among the highest in the country: http://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quotidien/140718/dq140718a-eng.htm


Is it in any way related to expatriated Newfoundlanders making too much seasonal income in Fort McMurray?
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Post #59 by AD » Thu Aug 14, 2014 2:27 pm

NyQuil wrote:Is it in any way related to expatriated Newfoundlanders making too much seasonal income in Fort McMurray?


Actually, the newfies have become big oil barons dontcha'know by screech something something.
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Post #60 by NyQuil » Thu Aug 14, 2014 2:29 pm

AD wrote:Actually, the newfies have become big oil barons dontcha'know by screech something something.


I'm pretty sure I saw this Republic of Doyle episode.
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Post #61 by mayoradamwest » Thu Aug 14, 2014 4:30 pm

Pretty sure nobody has seen an episode of republic of Doyle.
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Post #62 by NyQuil » Thu Aug 14, 2014 4:53 pm

mayoradamwest wrote:Pretty sure nobody has seen an episode of republic of Doyle.


It's how I imagine Republic of Doyle.
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Post #63 by mayoradamwest » Thu Aug 14, 2014 4:56 pm

It's no Murdoch.
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Post #64 by Craig » Thu Aug 14, 2014 8:14 pm

mayoradamwest wrote:Pretty sure nobody has seen an episode of republic of Doyle.


I watch every episode. I like Republic of Doyle.
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Post #65 by RTWAP » Thu Aug 14, 2014 9:23 pm



Thanks. Interesting reads.

The first one refutes the idea that we'll all retire and let the robots do our work, which isn't exactly the point the video was making.

The second is making the point that our laws are written to be enforced by people. There's nothing stopping us from writing software that exercises the same judgements as a human would (or changing the law to reflect the laws that are actually enforced). Ticket people exceeding the speed limit by a certain amount. It also describes instances where our early law enforcement automation is crappy. That's to be expected. It's early. If those systems don't get better with time then they'll be unique in human history.

The third makes a number of points, but they're mostly already countered in the video. Replacing the bottom third of jobs with robots may just result in different jobs for people. But the pace of change to reach that point has been slow. If it speeds up, and we reach the point where many more of the jobs we do can be done better and cheaper by robot then what will all the people do?

I expect there would be a bit of a backlash in some places against robots or automated services. ATM? No thanks, I'll use a real teller. Robot McDonalds? No thanks, I'll eat at the Burger King that employs local teens.

But I doubt that would have a huge impact in the end. The world could end up very stratified into people whose jobs have not yet been automated, and everyone else. I expect socialism would start looking a lot more attractive. The masses may really buy into the idea that the natural wealth of a country should first serve to provide a decent standard of living, and then the remainder should go to reward those who generate wealth.
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Post #66 by PPJ » Thu Aug 14, 2014 9:48 pm

AD wrote:Actually, the newfies have become big oil barons dontcha'know by screech something something.


Gonna blow it all on crap whiskey and ugly Inuit whores.
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Post #67 by Craig » Thu Aug 14, 2014 10:22 pm

RTWAP wrote:Thanks. Interesting reads.

The first one refutes the idea that we'll all retire and let the robots do our work, which isn't exactly the point the video was making.

The second is making the point that our laws are written to be enforced by people. There's nothing stopping us from writing software that exercises the same judgements as a human would (or changing the law to reflect the laws that are actually enforced). Ticket people exceeding the speed limit by a certain amount. It also describes instances where our early law enforcement automation is crappy. That's to be expected. It's early. If those systems don't get better with time then they'll be unique in human history.

The third makes a number of points, but they're mostly already countered in the video. Replacing the bottom third of jobs with robots may just result in different jobs for people. But the pace of change to reach that point has been slow. If it speeds up, and we reach the point where many more of the jobs we do can be done better and cheaper by robot then what will all the people do?

I expect there would be a bit of a backlash in some places against robots or automated services. ATM? No thanks, I'll use a real teller. Robot McDonalds? No thanks, I'll eat at the Burger King that employs local teens.

But I doubt that would have a huge impact in the end. The world could end up very stratified into people whose jobs have not yet been automated, and everyone else. I expect socialism would start looking a lot more attractive. The masses may really buy into the idea that the natural wealth of a country should first serve to provide a decent standard of living, and then the remainder should go to reward those who generate wealth.


A couple of points on the laws things. One, with speeding as the example, there are jurisdictions where the speed limit is actually the speed limit. People know it, get ticketed above it, and just generally obey it. It was strange for me going West and seeing everyone driving within 5 km/h of the limit, but it seemed to work just fine for them. Two, when the robots get good enough to police that sort of stuff we'll have moved beyond the need to police it anyway. You don't need to enforce the speed limit when cars drive themselves. Ditto for pretty much every other traffic offense, potentially including drunk driving too.
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Post #68 by Dog » Thu Aug 14, 2014 10:38 pm

Just have the tickets printed automatically from your dashboard everytime you go over the limit. Shouldn't be hard with a gps system.
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Post #69 by Craig » Fri Aug 15, 2014 10:21 am

The only way I think socialism will be appealing again is if we reach a point as a society where automation produces most everything and we've figured out an effectively limitless source of energy. In other words, when we can support a high standard of living for everyone without the need for most people to put in a day's work. I wouldn't hold your breath.
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Post #70 by mayoradamwest » Fri Aug 15, 2014 10:53 am

Craig wrote:I watch every episode. I like Republic of Doyle.


yeah, but you're Craigging when you do that.
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Post #71 by Craig » Fri Aug 15, 2014 10:54 am

Am not!
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Post #72 by mayoradamwest » Fri Aug 15, 2014 10:59 am

Craig wrote:The only way I think socialism will be appealing again is if we reach a point as a society where automation produces most everything and we've figured out an effectively limitless source of energy. In other words, when we can support a high standard of living for everyone without the need for most people to put in a day's work. I wouldn't hold your breath.


when can have socialism, as long as we don't use the word socialism. We can all agree that actions which could theoretically fall within the broad definition are the way to go, but as soon as we use the word we're done.
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Post #73 by Craig » Fri Aug 15, 2014 6:02 pm

dempsey_k wrote:Star Trek post-scarcity where non-land property is effectively meaningless and we're all Georgians suddenly.


More or less.
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Post #74 by RTWAP » Fri Aug 15, 2014 8:18 pm

dempsey_k wrote:I don't think socialism will ever appear attractive on a broad scale. There's nothing inherent in these discussions that say it's necessary for *government control of capital* to solve anything. Socialism doesn't solve that, it's a completely orthogonal problem and socialism is meant as a means to create a superior mode of production to capitalism based on a specific reading of human nature. I and most people with their heads screwed on right would tell you that was a terrible misreading of human nature and reintroducing it won't solve anything put forth by the vid. I think what you mean by "socialism" isn't necessary socialism, but rather expansion of the safety net. And that's where we come back to the basic income, which isn't socialism any more than Obamacare is. Reintroducing socialism to address these problems is almost the exact goof that Bastiat pointed out 150yrs ago: we should blot out the sun as a boon to the candlemakers union.


Yah. Bad use of the term by me. I'm not talking about strict socialism, but merely a system that places first priority on the production of goods and services to meet the need for all to have a reasonable standard of living.

That's an idea that I wouldn't support in other circumstances. Basic needs? Yes. Reasonable standard of living? That's too rich. Get a fucking job. But if there are so few jobs to be had then something's got to give.

I guess another solution would be to restrict work hours. Keep reducing it to match the labour supply to the demand. EDIT: Probably better to just raise the taxes (employee and employer) on hours worked above a certain amount. Some people just love work.

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