Ebola

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Ebola

Post #1 by Craig » Tue Sep 16, 2014 10:25 am

So like, a bunch of Aftricans are dying and shit. Mostly because they keep fucking up their own quarantine efforts, but still. Ebola is scary. MSF have been taking the lead so far, but they're admitting they're overwhelmed and can't contain it on their own.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/09/16/us-health-ebola-obama-idUSKBN0HB08S20140916

Obama is getting involved in a pretty big way. 3000 troops, 17 treatment centres and a military command centre. I can't recall a similar effort from the US outside of disaster relief. Can anyone else?
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Post #2 by Shawnathan Horcoff » Tue Sep 16, 2014 10:50 am

[CENTER] :getzyawnf: [/CENTER]
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Post #3 by Dog » Tue Sep 16, 2014 11:03 am

Yeah. You watch too many movies, greg.
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Post #4 by jester » Tue Sep 16, 2014 12:52 pm

http://www.wired.com/2014/09/r0-ebola/

The Eurosurveillance paper, by two researchers from the University of Tokyo and Arizona State University, attempts to derive what the reproductive rate has been in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone. (Note for actual epidemiology geeks: The calculation is for the effective reproductive number, pegged to a point in time, hence actually Rt.) They come up with an R of at least 1, and in some cases 2; that is, at certain points, sick persons have caused disease in two others.

You can see how that could quickly get out of hand, and in fact, that is what the researchers predict. Here is their stop-you-in-your-tracks assessment:

In a worst-case hypothetical scenario, should the outbreak continue with recent trends, the case burden could gain an additional 77,181 to 277,124 cases by the end of 2014.

That is a jaw-dropping number.


Safe to say ... it's pretty bad over there.
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Post #5 by MP » Tue Sep 16, 2014 12:54 pm

Madagascar has closed their ports.
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Post #6 by Shawnathan Horcoff » Tue Sep 16, 2014 12:56 pm

I've been shining a light on it for years, but you guys had to wait for Newsweek to report it.
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Post #7 by Hossa » Wed Sep 17, 2014 3:53 am

Craig wrote:So like, a bunch of Aftricans are dying and shit. Mostly because they keep fucking up their own quarantine efforts, but still. Ebola is scary. MSF have been taking the lead so far, but they're admitting they're overwhelmed and can't contain it on their own.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/09/16/us-health-ebola-obama-idUSKBN0HB08S20140916

Obama is getting involved in a pretty big way. 3000 troops, 17 treatment centres and a military command centre. I can't recall a similar effort from the US outside of disaster relief. Can anyone else?


The humanitarian community has limited (if any?) experience coordinating a response to a public health emergency of this scale. Humanitarian response is typically triggered either by armed conflict or natural disasters, and for better or worse there are already massive systems in place to coordinate those types of responses. While you sometimes get public health issues mixed into those disasters (eg. famine and Somalia), the Ebola crisis is a different challenge because it isn't just be a component a broader coordination structure. There is no agency with the capacity, experience or mandate to lead this kind of response. WHO isn't an operational agency that can put boots on the ground, while MSF is almost too operational to lead and coordinate something like this.

In other words, a massive military response is probably the only option now that it's clear that individual state institutions can't contain the outbreak, particularly as commercial airports and national borders are shut down. It could set an interesting precedent, that's for sure.
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Post #8 by NyQuil » Wed Sep 17, 2014 8:52 am

The challenge is that capacity building efforts in the region have been foiled for years by a variety of reasons:
1. Civil wars and dictatorships siphon off resources and supplies from national health systems.
2. Training personnel is futile because once they are trained, they emigrate to Europe, North America or elsewhere.
3. Laboratory capacity is limited. Attempts at technology transfer (e.g. SmartCyclers, ELISA testing) are short-term at best because they don't have the trained resources to maintain, repair and supply the equipment with reagents. There are labs with brand new equipment that is no longer functional because of the lack of regular maintenance.

Add on to that the cultural taboos for many interventions and paranoid suspicion of Western aid agencies and scientists and you have yourself a perfect storm for Ebola.
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Post #9 by PredsFan77 » Sat Sep 20, 2014 7:10 am

I hear Obama has ebola
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Post #10 by Shawnathan Horcoff » Tue Sep 30, 2014 7:51 pm

It begins.
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Post #11 by Dog » Tue Sep 30, 2014 8:01 pm

dong perimong wrote:It begins.


I always thought the end would start in Texas.
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Post #12 by AD » Tue Sep 30, 2014 8:02 pm

I'm gonna be in 7 different international airports over the next few weeks. Pray for me, broads.
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Post #13 by Dog » Tue Sep 30, 2014 8:06 pm

Move to quarantine AD to the Coyotes forum.
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Post #14 by Zardoz » Thu Oct 02, 2014 5:17 pm

Reports of zombies all over twitter now, but it's false according to snopes. Suddenly my emergency survival kit doesn't seem so crazy!
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Post #15 by clawfirst » Thu Oct 02, 2014 6:14 pm

I wonder what the death rate of ebola would actually be in a non shit hole country with simple luxuries like plumbing, chicken soup, and Tylenol.


WE'LL FIND OUT SOON
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Post #16 by Dog » Thu Oct 02, 2014 7:47 pm

You ever get that easily defendable land, banana?
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Post #17 by PredsFan77 » Thu Oct 02, 2014 7:52 pm

HEY GUYS JUST WANTED TO LET YOU GUYS KNOW WHAT I AM WEARING ON MY FLIGHT TO LEXINGTON, KENTUCKY TOMORROW

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Post #18 by PredsFan77 » Thu Oct 02, 2014 8:39 pm

CANT STOP WONT STOP
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Post #19 by PredsFan77 » Thu Oct 02, 2014 8:43 pm

AND OF COURSE SOME FUCKING NBC JOURNAL GOT EBOLA. EVERYONE TRYING TO BE A HERO THESE DAYS. WE SHOULD SEND THE REAL HOUSEWIVES OVER TO LIBERIA FOR A MONTH.
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Post #20 by AD » Thu Oct 02, 2014 9:55 pm

Dog wrote:You ever get that easily defendable land, banana?


Easily defensible land is getting more and more expensive (at a rate that I can safely assume is due to the conspiracy).
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Post #21 by PredsFan77 » Thu Oct 02, 2014 10:28 pm

That's not true. You can always get australia easily in risk.
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Post #22 by Zardoz » Fri Oct 03, 2014 11:40 am

Anyone else notice that 'Ebola' and 'Obama' rhyme?

:ford_stare:
[CENTER]Image[/CENTER]
[SIZE="1"]Bring us your idiots, your hussies, your blue and your dreamy. Your steady, your huddled, your fisted and creamy. Your villains, your filthy, your cunts and your meese. Your carpenters and fishers and pastors and beasts. Your rednecks, your Safas, your trolls and your Brits. And like all good sailors, we like us some tits.[/size]
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Post #23 by Captain Roy Bringus » Fri Oct 03, 2014 5:57 pm

Zardoz wrote:Anyone else notice that 'Ebola' and 'Obama' rhyme?

:ford_stare:


The right is already calling him President Ebola.
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Post #24 by Shawnathan Horcoff » Thu Oct 09, 2014 3:14 pm

It is getting downright comical, fellas.
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Post #25 by Transplanted Caper » Mon Oct 13, 2014 12:12 pm

Someone's in the Ottawa Hospital with ebola-like symptoms. Test results expected this afternoon. If you need me, I'll be robbing a Costco and a liquor store.
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Post #26 by PredsFan77 » Tue Oct 14, 2014 6:48 pm

we should send the ebola to israel.
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Post #27 by Craig » Wed Oct 15, 2014 12:53 pm

Geez, a second nurse got Ebola from that dude. There must have been a serious flaw with their handling of him.
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Post #28 by AD » Wed Oct 15, 2014 12:55 pm

Threesome?
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Post #29 by Dog » Wed Oct 15, 2014 1:33 pm

Craig wrote:Geez, a second nurse got Ebola from that dude. There must have been a serious flaw with their handling of him.


I don't understand why they don't treat patients in a few specialized locations. From the start it's sounded to me a bad idea to trust whatever hospital they came into.

Nurse's union saying today that protocol kept changing, equipment wasn't well adjusted to staff, etc.
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Post #30 by jester » Wed Oct 15, 2014 1:46 pm

Dog wrote:I don't understand why they don't treat patients in a few specialized locations. From the start it's sounded to me a bad idea to trust whatever hospital they came into.

Nurse's union saying today that protocol kept changing, equipment wasn't well adjusted to staff, etc.


... my wife is a NP at a very highly rated hospital. I'm here to say I used to have great confidence, and I no longer do based on the shit I am hearing from her--and this was before the stuff came out about the protocols in Dallas and the 2nd patient.

CDC needs to get its shit together and take a more proactive approach. The idea that these random hospitals are where we should be trying to contain this is absurd. At the very least, trained CDC professionals need to be on site making sure that proper protocol is being followed.
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Post #31 by Dog » Wed Oct 15, 2014 1:52 pm

jester wrote:... my wife is a NP at a very highly hospital. I'm here to say I used to have great confidence, and I no longer do based on the shit I am hearing from her--and this was before the stuff came out about the protocols in Dallas and the 2nd patient.

CDC needs to get its shit together and take a more proactive approach. The idea that these random hospitals are where we should be trying to contain this is absurd. At the very least, trained CDC professionals need to be on site making sure that proper protocol is being followed.


Was with a cousin of mine over the weekend that is one of those semi-doctors you have in the States in a large Mass hospital and she said they have minimal training and next to no idea what to do in case somebody shows up.

It's beyond ridiculous to think these patients can be treated wherever based on minimal training.

I wonder what the issue preventing centralized care is. Is it a jurisdiction thing with CDC?
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Post #32 by jester » Wed Oct 15, 2014 1:57 pm

Dog wrote:Was with a cousin of mine over the weekend that is one of those semi-doctors you have in the States in a large Mass hospital and she said they have minimal training and next to no idea what to do in case somebody shows up.

It's beyond ridiculous to think these patients can be treated wherever based on minimal training.

I wonder what the issue preventing centralized care is. Is it a jurisdiction thing with CDC?


It's a good question, the director just said that he wished they had been more proactive in Dallas ... I really don't get why the CDC did not assert itself immediately. And, yeah, there is a general confusion about what to do if/when an Ebola patient shows up, and I'm equally concerned about how hospital management teams are going to deal with these patients.

The smart thing to do is to test anyone and everyone that you're remotely suspicious of ...
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Post #33 by MP » Wed Oct 15, 2014 1:58 pm

Meh, checks and balances to the human population. Ebola or other diseases transmitted human to human are bound to come and go.
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Post #34 by jester » Wed Oct 15, 2014 1:59 pm

MP wrote:Meh, checks and balances to the human population. Ebola or other diseases transmitted human to human are bound to come and go.


Sure ... but this is about response, not the existence of protocol. Cars are bound to wind up in accidents, but we still want working traffic lights.
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Post #35 by Craig » Wed Oct 15, 2014 2:31 pm

jester wrote:It's a good question, the director just said that he wished they had been more proactive in Dallas ... I really don't get why the CDC did not assert itself immediately. And, yeah, there is a general confusion about what to do if/when an Ebola patient shows up, and I'm equally concerned about how hospital management teams are going to deal with these patients.

The smart thing to do is to test anyone and everyone that you're remotely suspicious of ...


The thing is, the CDC has to worry about all the potential diseases, not just the one that has caught popular attention right now. I mean there are 3000 or so patients with Leprosy in the US right now. Right now Ebola is about as common in the US as the Plague. Never mind the diseases that are much more likely to spread and do damage like influenza or the various ones that cause nephritis.

Should they be sending everyone with any communicable disease to some sort of central hospital? I think you'd find that we're better off just training hospital staff the proper procedures for identifying communicable diseases (which is essential regardless, since that's where people go when they're sick) and proper procedures for quarantining them.
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Post #36 by MP » Wed Oct 15, 2014 2:36 pm

I have a sore throat. You guys think it's Ebola?
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Post #37 by Craig » Wed Oct 15, 2014 2:37 pm

I hope so.
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Post #38 by AD » Wed Oct 15, 2014 2:38 pm

Yes.

Edit: I want Price.
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Post #39 by Dog » Wed Oct 15, 2014 2:39 pm

Craig wrote:The thing is, the CDC has to worry about all the potential diseases, not just the one that has caught popular attention right now. I mean there are 3000 or so patients with Leprosy in the US right now. Right now Ebola is about as common in the US as the Plague. Never mind the diseases that are much more likely to spread and do damage like influenza or the various ones that cause nephritis.

Should they be sending everyone with any communicable disease to some sort of central hospital? I think you'd find that we're better off just training hospital staff the proper procedures for identifying communicable diseases (which is essential regardless, since that's where people go when they're sick) and proper procedures for quarantining them.


It's because of people like you, Greg, that we will all die!!!
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Post #40 by jester » Wed Oct 15, 2014 2:40 pm

Craig wrote:The thing is, the CDC has to worry about all the potential diseases, not just the one that has caught popular attention right now. I mean there are 3000 or so patients with Leprosy in the US right now. Right now Ebola is about as common in the US as the Plague. Never mind the diseases that are much more likely to spread and do damage like influenza or the various ones that cause nephritis.


You're actually making the argument for why they can and should be more proactive with Ebola. It's a limited patient population (meaning limited number of personnel are necessary), and, more importantly, one that can be stopped before it becomes a bigger problem (and thus require a larger effort). Yes, there are much more communicable diseases, but the hospital system is very well versed in dealing with things like the flu.

Should they be sending everyone with any communicable disease to some sort of central hospital? I think you'd find that we're better off just training hospital staff the proper procedures for identifying communicable diseases (which is essential regardless, since that's where people go when they're sick) and proper procedures for quarantining them.


No, but probably the ones with a 50% mortality rate and a limited patient population.

As said, I have lost confidence in the hospital system based on conversations. And it is worth stressing, she is not at some boondocks hospital. She's at a major hospital, with considerable resources and expertise. If she has concerns about their ability to handle a situation, what are we to think about hospitals with weaker staff and resources?
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Post #41 by Craig » Wed Oct 15, 2014 2:41 pm

Dog wrote:It's because of people like you, Greg, that we will all die!!!


It's because of people like me that the organizations tasked with keeping us safe can focus on doing their jobs efficiently, rather than overreacting to things that show up on the news at the expense of our collective health.

If people like you were in charge, we'd all have leprosy.
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Post #42 by jester » Wed Oct 15, 2014 2:43 pm

Nah, leprosy isn't very contagious. We're good on that one.
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Post #43 by MP » Wed Oct 15, 2014 2:44 pm

jester wrote:Nah, leprosy isn't very contagious. We're good on that one.


Neither is Ebola :squint:
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Post #44 by AD » Wed Oct 15, 2014 2:44 pm

Dog wrote:It's because of people like you, Greg, that we will all die!!!


We will definitely all die.
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Post #45 by Craig » Wed Oct 15, 2014 2:45 pm

jester wrote:You're actually making the argument for why they can and should be more proactive with Ebola. It's a limited patient population (meaning limited number of personnel are necessary), and, more importantly, one that can be stopped before it becomes a bigger problem (and thus require a larger effort). Yes, there are much more communicable diseases, but the hospital system is very well versed in dealing with things like the flu.



No, but probably the ones with a 50% mortality rate and a limited patient population.

As said, I have lost confidence in the hospital system based on conversations. And it is worth stressing, she is not at some boondocks hospital. She's at a major hospital, with considerable resources and expertise. If she has concerns about their ability to handle a situation, what are we to think about hospitals with weaker staff and resources?


Did you really just bold and italicize a word in your reply Jester? Really?

Why should we focus on things with limited patient populations? Focus on saving the most lives and/or preventing the most harm.

My point was there are lots and lots of diseases that do damage comparable to Ebola that you and I don't even know the names of. Expecting the CDC to fly them all to some central location is silly. Quarantines aren't that fucking complicated and they apply to all sorts of things, we should be able to trust hospitals to take care of it.
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Post #46 by Dog » Wed Oct 15, 2014 2:45 pm

AD wrote:We will definitely all die.


Fucking Greg.
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Post #47 by Craig » Wed Oct 15, 2014 2:46 pm

jester wrote:Nah, leprosy isn't very contagious. We're good on that one.


That's the point.

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