Regular Season General Hockey Shit

And some artists..
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Re: Regular Season General Hockey Shit

Post #3201 by Dog » Fri Oct 13, 2017 11:31 am

Corsi is a proxy for possession (cause time clocks are beyond current technology) and possession is a proxy for "good team" because good teams tend to have more possession.

This is why this is all largely stupid if you take a metric (that's only supposed to "help" discover the underlyinng story) and make it an end in of itself.
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Re: Regular Season General Hockey Shit

Post #3202 by vonbonds » Fri Oct 13, 2017 11:31 am

Retarder S wrote:I don't understand how you can base your analysis on shots. It's fucking lazy. Team deserves to be 1-3 at this point, could easily be 0-4.

I mean, the point of offense is not solely shooting the puck, it's to truly challenge and destabilize your opponent's defense, which the habs do way too sparingly for me to even entertain the "we dominate, but we're unlucky" narrative. The defence the first 3 games (didn't watch last game) was breaking down on command. While the offence generated shots, the habs are obviously struggling to generate meaningful offense. Much less with a deficit.

At least Julien is emphasizing that message to the team instead of the "Why me?" shit-show we got from Therrien.

This message is how all Devils fans thought for years until just recently. Not a good sign for you guys.
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Re: Regular Season General Hockey Shit

Post #3203 by Retarder S » Fri Oct 13, 2017 11:44 am

vonbonds wrote:
Retarder S wrote:I don't understand how you can base your analysis on shots. It's fucking lazy. Team deserves to be 1-3 at this point, could easily be 0-4.

I mean, the point of offense is not solely shooting the puck, it's to truly challenge and destabilize your opponent's defense, which the habs do way too sparingly for me to even entertain the "we dominate, but we're unlucky" narrative. The defence the first 3 games (didn't watch last game) was breaking down on command. While the offence generated shots, the habs are obviously struggling to generate meaningful offense. Much less with a deficit.

At least Julien is emphasizing that message to the team instead of the "Why me?" shit-show we got from Therrien.

This message is how all Devils fans thought for years until just recently. Not a good sign for you guys.

I personally have my reservations about this roster, and I think it ultimately falls on that, but at least we have a coach that Tells it like it is™. :vince:
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Re: Regular Season General Hockey Shit

Post #3204 by Mufasa » Fri Oct 13, 2017 12:23 pm

Galchenyuk has 2 goals in his last 28 games.
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Re: Regular Season General Hockey Shit

Post #3205 by Macbeth » Fri Oct 13, 2017 12:59 pm

Mufasa wrote:Galchenyuk has 2 goals in his last 28 games.

À madné falloir accepter que Gollenchong est une astie d'gage.
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Re: Regular Season General Hockey Shit

Post #3206 by Mufasa » Fri Oct 13, 2017 1:13 pm

Macbeth wrote:
Mufasa wrote:Galchenyuk has 2 goals in his last 28 games.

À madné falloir accepter que Gollenchong est une astie d'gage.


Peut-être qu'il est bon pour soulager les gars dans la chambre. Mais Andrigettho était bon pour les soulager pis jouer au hockey aussi.
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Re: Regular Season General Hockey Shit

Post #3207 by TittiesNBeer » Fri Oct 13, 2017 2:01 pm

Dog wrote:Corsi is a proxy for possession (cause time clocks are beyond current technology) and possession is a proxy for "good team" because good teams tend to have more possession.

This is why this is all largely stupid if you take a metric (that's only supposed to "help" discover the underlyinng story) and make it an end in of itself.


Its also meaningful possession because possession without shots is a problem.

But fine... dont' use corsi.

Here is another stat. HDSC% - High Danger scoring chance percentage. .... ie Number of High Danger Chances your team had divided by Total Number of High Danger Chances of Both Teams.

Again another stat the Habs are dominating early in the season, and the results are not lining up with the early results.

Again an example how hot goaltending in a samll sample can work against these metrics... but in the long run, if we keep getting 55% of high danger scoring chances in a game... we are going to be an excellent team over 82 games.
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Re: Regular Season General Hockey Shit

Post #3208 by TittiesNBeer » Fri Oct 13, 2017 2:09 pm

Retarder S wrote:I don't understand how you can base your analysis on shots. It's fucking lazy. Team deserves to be 1-3 at this point, could easily be 0-4.

I mean, the point of offense is not solely shooting the puck, it's to truly challenge and destabilize your opponent's defense, which the habs do way too sparingly for me to even entertain the "we dominate, but we're unlucky" narrative. The defence the first 3 games (didn't watch last game) was breaking down on command. While the offence generated shots, the habs are obviously struggling to generate meaningful offense. Much less with a deficit.

At least Julien is emphasizing that message to the team instead of the "Why me?" shit-show we got from Therrien.


The Habs shooting percentage at the end of each year for the last five years..... 15th (tied), 21st, 8th, 16th, 11th,

Opposing goalies against habs vary from year to year, but mostly its middle of the pack. They don't do a worse job of getting quality shots than the average NHL team.

In fact no team really gets this "quality" thing better than anyone else. The teams at the top and bottom of shooting percentage are highly variable. A team can be best one year and in the 20s the next year with little change in personnel or systems or whatever.

The teams that score a lot of goals? They do so by generating more quantity of shots, and high danger scoring chances. They don't do it by the quality of the shot itself, but rather by volume. Lots of chances, means more goals end up going in (over the long run).

And yeah the Habs face great goaltending and get lots of shots and don't score some games. And we think this happens to us a lot more than it happens to other teams. But it doesn't. The facts bear that out. We are a middle of the road team in shooting percentage and thus a middle of the road team in what opposing goalies put up as a save percentage against us. The fact is that we just remember the great games against us more, because its our team and its frustrating, and we all watch 70+ habs games a year while being emotionally invested in the outcome, and so it becomes more memorable.

A great goalie performance when we watch two teams we are neutral towards, just isn't that memorable a few weeks and months later. We don't see the trends as we do with Montreal.

Here are some facts

Fact: goaltending has never been as good league wide as it is right now.
Fact: every team runs into hot goalies, statistically the Habs are average in this happening to them.
Fact: scoring more goals and generating more offence, is about quantity of good chances, not quality.
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Re: Regular Season General Hockey Shit

Post #3209 by Dog » Fri Oct 13, 2017 2:28 pm

Maybe the reversion to mean will happen by the habs scoring chances dropping.
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Re: Regular Season General Hockey Shit

Post #3210 by Dog » Fri Oct 13, 2017 2:30 pm

I mean, I don't think the habs will finish the season with a .250 winning percentage. I'm sure they can improve the winning record significantly and end aroung .500.

:danson:
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Re: RE: Re: Regular Season General Hockey Shit

Post #3211 by TittiesNBeer » Fri Oct 13, 2017 3:06 pm

Dog wrote:Maybe the reversion to mean will happen by the habs scoring chances dropping.
Possible. But this is a team that shows a trend if continued improvement in their possession stats and is coached by a coach whos history shows that with his teams too.
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Re: Regular Season General Hockey Shit

Post #3212 by Retarder S » Fri Oct 13, 2017 3:12 pm

TittiesNBeer wrote:
Retarder S wrote:I don't understand how you can base your analysis on shots. It's fucking lazy. Team deserves to be 1-3 at this point, could easily be 0-4.

I mean, the point of offense is not solely shooting the puck, it's to truly challenge and destabilize your opponent's defense, which the habs do way too sparingly for me to even entertain the "we dominate, but we're unlucky" narrative. The defence the first 3 games (didn't watch last game) was breaking down on command. While the offence generated shots, the habs are obviously struggling to generate meaningful offense. Much less with a deficit.

At least Julien is emphasizing that message to the team instead of the "Why me?" shit-show we got from Therrien.


The Habs shooting percentage at the end of each year for the last five years..... 15th (tied), 21st, 8th, 16th, 11th,

Opposing goalies against habs vary from year to year, but mostly its middle of the pack. They don't do a worse job of getting quality shots than the average NHL team.

In fact no team really gets this "quality" thing better than anyone else. The teams at the top and bottom of shooting percentage are highly variable. A team can be best one year and in the 20s the next year with little change in personnel or systems or whatever.

The teams that score a lot of goals? They do so by generating more quantity of shots, and high danger scoring chances. They don't do it by the quality of the shot itself, but rather by volume. Lots of chances, means more goals end up going in (over the long run).

And yeah the Habs face great goaltending and get lots of shots and don't score some games. And we think this happens to us a lot more than it happens to other teams. But it doesn't. The facts bear that out. We are a middle of the road team in shooting percentage and thus a middle of the road team in what opposing goalies put up as a save percentage against us. The fact is that we just remember the great games against us more, because its our team and its frustrating, and we all watch 70+ habs games a year while being emotionally invested in the outcome, and so it becomes more memorable.

A great goalie performance when we watch two teams we are neutral towards, just isn't that memorable a few weeks and months later. We don't see the trends as we do with Montreal.

Here are some facts

Fact: goaltending has never been as good league wide as it is right now.
Fact: every team runs into hot goalies, statistically the Habs are average in this happening to them.
Fact: scoring more goals and generating more offence, is about quantity of good chances, not quality.


How do you quantify high quality scoring chances?

The habs have trouble scoring because they don't generate turmoil in between the dots, this has been the case for so many years. Yes you might see shots coming inside the slot and count them as high scoring chances, but if those shots are easy to read, every goalie at this point in time will save it. Then what do you rely on? Rebounds. Being a small team up front, the habs struggle in front and around the net. Gallagher and Shaw are always trying, but most opponents are bigger than them. And to be fair, there aren't many JVR's and Wayne Simmons out there. I don't remember many great goalie performances against us, because we make it too easy, not because I can't see what other teams achieve against us objectively.

The habs rely far too often on perimetre play with little deception. Now with the lack of puck skills and mobility in the back end, that flaw will be intensified (less speed through the neutral zone, static point men, less destabilization). It's no coincidence they can't score in the playoffs and have very little margin of error coming into games. If they trail, it's almost improbable to come back against the top teams.

The only hope is the PP clicking this year, which I still have faith on because Drouin hasn't scored yet and teams are taking advantage of his generosity early on. Once he pots a couple, Weber will be less covered and slappers will ensue.
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Re: Regular Season General Hockey Shit

Post #3213 by Dog » Fri Oct 13, 2017 3:18 pm

Fine, they'll end with a .550 winning percentage and finish in 6-10th place, depending on number of OT losses.
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Re: Regular Season General Hockey Shit

Post #3214 by TittiesNBeer » Fri Oct 13, 2017 3:20 pm

You quantify high quality chances based on getting the.shot from close to the net and between the hashmarks. Where most goals are scored.

Again this is a team that historically has been around league average at converting their chances. The personnel isnt greatly changed. If anything the forward group is better this year.


Its much more likely that this is a short run of an unsustainable bad luck than it is that suddenly they became a team that only converts at 1/3 the rate of the worst team in nhl history.
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Re: Regular Season General Hockey Shit

Post #3215 by Dog » Fri Oct 13, 2017 3:20 pm

"Turmoil in between the dots".

Telling it like it is. Poetically.
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Re: Regular Season General Hockey Shit

Post #3216 by edgar_dong » Fri Oct 13, 2017 3:23 pm

I genuinely believe they won’t score more than 82 goals this season. :colbert:
Also, let's keep this thread about Galchenyuk's on-ice performance, development and value and NOT bring in his personal life or race.
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Re: Regular Season General Hockey Shit

Post #3217 by Dog » Fri Oct 13, 2017 3:24 pm

TittiesNBeer wrote:You quantify high quality chances based on getting the.shot from close to the net and between the hashmarks. Where most goals are scored.

Again this is a team that historically has been around league average at converting their chances. The personnel isnt greatly changed. If anything the forward group is better this year.


Its much more likely that this is a short run of an unsustainable bad luck than it is that suddenly they became a team that only converts at 1/3 the rate of the worst team in nhl history.


The biggest step down this year is in defense. The offense remains mediocre and the defense slow, old and lacking depth.

Bubble team!
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Re: Regular Season General Hockey Shit

Post #3218 by AD » Fri Oct 13, 2017 3:25 pm

Turmoil in the dangerous zones.
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Re: Regular Season General Hockey Shit

Post #3219 by AD » Fri Oct 13, 2017 3:25 pm

I've never been so turned on by pok tok.
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Re: Regular Season General Hockey Shit

Post #3220 by Retarder S » Fri Oct 13, 2017 3:32 pm

TittiesNBeer wrote:You quantify high quality chances based on getting the.shot from close to the net and between the hashmarks. Where most goals are scored.

Again this is a team that historically has been around league average at converting their chances. The personnel isnt greatly changed. If anything the forward group is better this year.


Its much more likely that this is a short run of an unsustainable bad luck than it is that suddenly they became a team that only converts at 1/3 the rate of the worst team in nhl history.


As I said on my post, that's not enough to provide in depth analysis of the collective play of a team. You get a better picture when you watch them.

I'm not as worried about the current slump, it's an obvious anomaly. I just don't think we've gotten better the last 3-4 seasons and there are no signs of things getting better. It's still early on, but my inclination this year is not to be optimistic because things can't get worse offensively, but be skeptic because the team is not improved in my book.
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Re: Regular Season General Hockey Shit

Post #3221 by Dog » Fri Oct 13, 2017 3:35 pm

Not improved? They've regressed.

This was one very minuscule quasi-window we had, friends.
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Re: Regular Season General Hockey Shit

Post #3222 by Dog » Fri Oct 13, 2017 3:36 pm

Also, look at our prospect cupboard. Lol.

We're fucked.

:why:
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Re: Regular Season General Hockey Shit

Post #3223 by Dog » Fri Oct 13, 2017 3:44 pm

I find it surprising how I can have these strong opinions while having perhaps watched 10 minutes of hockey this season and thought about it less than that.
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Re: Regular Season General Hockey Shit

Post #3224 by Retarder S » Fri Oct 13, 2017 3:46 pm

Dog wrote:I find it surprising how I can have these strong opinions while having perhaps watched 10 minutes of hockey this season and thought about it less than that.


What matters is that you tell it like it is™.
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Re: Regular Season General Hockey Shit

Post #3225 by Retarder S » Fri Oct 13, 2017 3:52 pm

AD wrote:Turmoil in the erogenous zones.


AD wrote:I've never been so turned on by pok tok.
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Re: Regular Season General Hockey Shit

Post #3226 by Dog » Fri Oct 13, 2017 4:27 pm

Where I read poetry, AD reads eroticism. Figures.
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Re: Regular Season General Hockey Shit

Post #3227 by TittiesNBeer » Fri Oct 13, 2017 5:08 pm

To me

Subtract... Radulov, flynn, nolan, ott, martinsen

Add... drouin , hudon, hemsky, dlr.

Healthy gallagher and galchenyuk.

The offense is improved over a year ago.

Defense a little worse overall (#2 d is worse) but schlemko>beaulieu and alzner>emelin.

Overall i dont see a worse team.
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Re: Regular Season General Hockey Shit

Post #3228 by MP » Fri Oct 13, 2017 5:18 pm

When did we stop blocking the word 'corsi'?
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Re: Regular Season General Hockey Shit

Post #3229 by Dog » Fri Oct 13, 2017 6:14 pm

Schlemko is better than beaulieu (i dunno, never saw him)? The big downgrade in defense is of course markov to streit.

The lack of quality center is killing them too.
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Re: Regular Season General Hockey Shit

Post #3230 by Dog » Fri Oct 13, 2017 6:15 pm

Always a Malkin and Seth Jones away from contending.

:why:
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Re: Regular Season General Hockey Shit

Post #3231 by Boring Choice #2 » Fri Oct 13, 2017 6:22 pm

MP wrote:When did we stop blocking the word 'corsi'?

Some whiny person made someone change it. At least Fenwick still works.
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Re: Regular Season General Hockey Shit

Post #3232 by Craig » Fri Oct 13, 2017 7:18 pm

Why do people think the D is slower than last year? The top 4 traded Markov and Emelin for Mete and Alzner.
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Re: Regular Season General Hockey Shit

Post #3233 by Retarder S » Fri Oct 13, 2017 9:19 pm

Craig wrote:Why do people think the D is slower than last year? The top 4 traded Markov and Emelin for Mete and Alzner.


Alzner is less mobile than Emelin, and I'd say Emelin is a slightly better puck mover also. Markov wasn't the fastest, but our best puck mover thanks to his IQ and passing ability. As for the defence being slow, Streit and a lack of cohesion between the D and the fwds in transition affect the optics. They've looked slower than last year, but I suspect it's an early season/getting used to a new partner thing. Petry is also really low in confidence without the puck and looks like Patrick Traverse.

Let's hope Mete can take more responsibilities in a couple of months. If not we'll be missing a puck mover who can play a bigger role.
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Re: Regular Season General Hockey Shit

Post #3234 by Dog » Fri Oct 13, 2017 9:56 pm

Told, the way it is.
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Re: Regular Season General Hockey Shit

Post #3235 by Craig » Fri Oct 13, 2017 10:58 pm

Emelin is not a better puck mover. Jesus.

Mete is vastly more mobile than Markov. We obviously miss his puck movement, but the mobility of the D is largely unchanged.
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Re: Regular Season General Hockey Shit

Post #3236 by chiclet » Sat Oct 14, 2017 5:37 am

What we lack is Ulanov.

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Re: Regular Season General Hockey Shit

Post #3237 by Retarder S » Sat Oct 14, 2017 11:54 pm

Craig wrote:Emelin is not a better puck mover. Jesus.


Yes he is and you know what? He's not only slightly better, he's much much better. :vince:
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Re: Regular Season General Hockey Shit

Post #3238 by Mufasa » Sun Oct 15, 2017 12:10 am

Retarder S wrote:
Craig wrote:Why do people think the D is slower than last year? The top 4 traded Markov and Emelin for Mete and Alzner.


Alzner is less mobile than Emelin, and I'd say Emelin is a slightly better puck mover also. Markov wasn't the fastest, but our best puck mover thanks to his IQ and passing ability. As for the defence being slow, Streit and a lack of cohesion between the D and the fwds in transition affect the optics. They've looked slower than last year, but I suspect it's an early season/getting used to a new partner thing. Petry is also really low in confidence without the puck and looks like Patrick Traverse.

Let's hope Mete can take more responsibilities in a couple of months. If not we'll be missing a puck mover who can play a bigger role.


Tabarouette!
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Re: Regular Season General Hockey Shit

Post #3239 by Dog » Sun Oct 15, 2017 8:27 am

You people just can't deal.
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Re: Regular Season General Hockey Shit

Post #3240 by PPJ » Sun Oct 15, 2017 8:51 am

All I know is, Beaulieu and Tinordi not being developed properly fucked this team up. No reason we needed the likes of Alzner if player development was worth shit.
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Re: Regular Season General Hockey Shit

Post #3241 by Mufasa » Sun Oct 15, 2017 10:00 am

Tinordi and Brolieu are shit, they were developed properly.
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Re: Regular Season General Hockey Shit

Post #3242 by Dog » Sun Oct 15, 2017 10:16 am

Tinordi? I'm still miffed about Brent Bilodeau.
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Re: Regular Season General Hockey Shit

Post #3243 by Mufasa » Sun Oct 15, 2017 10:27 am

In the next video, you will see Nate Beaulieu pass the puck to the opponent right in front of the net, that's Sly Lefebvre fault.

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Re: Regular Season General Hockey Shit

Post #3244 by mcphee » Sun Oct 15, 2017 10:32 am

Retarder S wrote:
Craig wrote:Emelin is not a better puck mover. Jesus.


Yes he is and you know what? He's not only slightly better, he's much much better. :vince:


Emelin could skate and move the puck. He had some good offensive instincts, he could hit, close down forwards but he couldn't do it consistently. Measure players shot velocity or mph on skates and the best numbers don't make the best player. Emelin would be fine until he wasn't, and the 'wasn't' periods were happening more often and lasting longer. That was the team's gripe, consistency.
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Re: Regular Season General Hockey Shit

Post #3245 by PPJ » Sun Oct 15, 2017 10:33 am

Dog wrote:Tinordi? I'm still miffed about Brent Bilodeau.


For me it's Lindsay Vallis
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Re: Regular Season General Hockey Shit

Post #3246 by PPJ » Sun Oct 15, 2017 10:34 am

Mufasa wrote:Tinordi and Brolieu are shit, they were developed properly.


:creeper2:
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Retarder S
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Re: Regular Season General Hockey Shit

Post #3247 by Retarder S » Sun Oct 15, 2017 11:02 am

mcphee wrote:
Retarder S wrote:
Craig wrote:Emelin is not a better puck mover. Jesus.


Yes he is and you know what? He's not only slightly better, he's much much better. :vince:


Emelin could skate and move the puck. He had some good offensive instincts, he could hit, close down forwards but he couldn't do it consistently. Measure players shot velocity or mph on skates and the best numbers don't make the best player. Emelin would be fine until he wasn't, and the 'wasn't' periods were happening more often and lasting longer. That was the team's gripe, consistency.


I fully agree. I think Emelin was better suited as a bottom pairing guy for that reason. That said, with Mete and Schlemko, the D wont lack mobility overall, but a guy who can eat up minutes in that mold. Remains to be seen wether Mete will be able to take a heavier charge, but he's been solid so far with what he's been given.
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Re: Regular Season General Hockey Shit

Post #3248 by mcphee » Sun Oct 15, 2017 11:24 am

Retarder S wrote:
mcphee wrote:
Retarder S wrote:
Yes he is and you know what? He's not only slightly better, he's much much better. :vince:


Emelin could skate and move the puck. He had some good offensive instincts, he could hit, close down forwards but he couldn't do it consistently. Measure players shot velocity or mph on skates and the best numbers don't make the best player. Emelin would be fine until he wasn't, and the 'wasn't' periods were happening more often and lasting longer. That was the team's gripe, consistency.


I fully agree. I think Emelin was better suited as a bottom pairing guy for that reason. That said, with Mete and Schlemko, the D wont lack mobility overall, but a guy who can eat up minutes in that mold. Remains to be seen wether Mete will be able to take a heavier charge, but he's been solid so far with what he's been given.

You can see how the game changes year to year and while the emphasis is on quick puck movement, quick plays off the rush, quick everything, d men have to join the rush.

You don't have to have speed to do his though, you have to be willing. Teams play their positions too well, the d man has to give an extra passing option, even a bad one. Mtl seems to have too many guys slow to read each other right now. Guys like Hudon are a lot more valuable if they can choose an option with the puck, rather than trying to win battles he can't win.
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Re: Regular Season General Hockey Shit

Post #3249 by Mufasa » Sun Oct 15, 2017 12:06 pm

Retarder S wrote:
mcphee wrote:
Retarder S wrote:
Yes he is and you know what? He's not only slightly better, he's much much better. :vince:


Emelin could skate and move the puck. He had some good offensive instincts, he could hit, close down forwards but he couldn't do it consistently. Measure players shot velocity or mph on skates and the best numbers don't make the best player. Emelin would be fine until he wasn't, and the 'wasn't' periods were happening more often and lasting longer. That was the team's gripe, consistency.


I fully agree. I think Emelin was better suited as a bottom pairing guy for that reason. That said, with Mete and Schlemko, the D wont lack mobility overall, but a guy who can eat up minutes in that mold. Remains to be seen wether Mete will be able to take a heavier charge, but he's been solid so far with what he's been given.


I still wanna see Morrow, he's a great skater with good offence, i guess he's been treated arshly as both Davidson and Streit were as bad as him in pre-season, except they got a second chance.
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Re: Regular Season General Hockey Shit

Post #3250 by Mufasa » Sun Oct 15, 2017 1:08 pm

Here's how i'd go.

Patch -Danolt - Drouin
Lehkonen - Galchenyuk - Gallagher
Hudon - Plek - Shaw
Byron - DLR - Hemsky

Mete - Weber
Alzner - Petry
Morrow - Shlemale

Price
Fucalé

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