ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

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Re: ongoing transactions fred 2017-2018

Post #451 by Dynrehab » Tue Oct 10, 2017 7:01 pm

AGENT ZERO wrote:Bobby Mac was just on Leafs Overdrive and said JVR really wants to stay in Toronto and may be amenable to an 8 year deal to drive down the cap hit. Interesting if true, I always assumed JVR would be a cap casualty this summer, but if he is willing to do 8 years at like 4M does he become an option? Moreover, is it worth it for the Leafs to explore such a deal or is that too long a term?


That takes him to 37. I think $4 million is a pipe dream, even at an 8 year deal.
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Re: ongoing transactions fred 2017-2018

Post #452 by vonbonds » Tue Oct 10, 2017 7:05 pm

I'd kill for Middletown, NJ's finest to be on the Devils!












































































































































Yes, I'm from Middletown, NJ
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Re: ongoing transactions fred 2017-2018

Post #453 by AGENT ZERO » Tue Oct 10, 2017 7:07 pm

Dynrehab wrote:
AGENT ZERO wrote:Bobby Mac was just on Leafs Overdrive and said JVR really wants to stay in Toronto and may be amenable to an 8 year deal to drive down the cap hit. Interesting if true, I always assumed JVR would be a cap casualty this summer, but if he is willing to do 8 years at like 4M does he become an option? Moreover, is it worth it for the Leafs to explore such a deal or is that too long a term?


That takes him to 37. I think $4 million is a pipe dream, even at an 8 year deal.


Maybe, but if JVR wants to remain a Leaf it's going to take something in that neighborhood.
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Re: ongoing transactions fred 2017-2018

Post #454 by Honus Joglund » Tue Oct 10, 2017 7:31 pm

So basically he wants Abdelkader's contract. Adbelkader signed a 7 year/$4.25M AAV that started in 16/17 when he was 29, same age as JVR next year.

I don't know if I would do that. We could let him leave, save money to spend elsewhere and replace him with Brown/Leivo/Kapanen. Or we could let Bozak go and replace him with Nylander and move one of those wingers up the lineup.
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Re: ongoing transactions fred 2017-2018

Post #455 by AGENT ZERO » Tue Oct 10, 2017 7:31 pm

LeafOfBread wrote:I don't really like JVR much anymore, nor do I feel good about the idea of keeping both him and Bozak, one of them has to go for sure. That line is porous defensively and I'm sick of watching him fuck the dog with his constant flybys. It sucks because the guy oozes talent and could be a serious game breaker if he tried harder.


Me neither, but to be fair to JVR if he had a better center who was better at transitioning the puck out of the defensive zone (one of JVR's biggest weaknesses) you would probably get more out of him, and his net front ability (passing and scoring) seems like a skill that will age well.
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Re: ongoing transactions fred 2017-2018

Post #456 by AGENT ZERO » Tue Oct 10, 2017 8:00 pm

Hyman - Matthews - Nylander
Leivo - Tavares - Marner
Marleau - Kadri - Brown
Martin - Moore - Kapanen

:creeper2:
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Re: ongoing transactions fred 2017-2018

Post #457 by mooseOAK » Tue Oct 10, 2017 8:55 pm

AGENT ZERO wrote:
LeafOfBread wrote:I don't really like JVR much anymore, nor do I feel good about the idea of keeping both him and Bozak, one of them has to go for sure. That line is porous defensively and I'm sick of watching him fuck the dog with his constant flybys. It sucks because the guy oozes talent and could be a serious game breaker if he tried harder.


Me neither, but to be fair to JVR if he had a better center who was better at transitioning the puck out of the defensive zone (one of JVR's biggest weaknesses) you would probably get more out of him, and his net front ability (passing and scoring) seems like a skill that will age well.

What is "transitioning the puck out of the defensive zone"?

The line has is very good at creating rushes out of the zone, winning puck battles is their weakness.
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Re: ongoing transactions fred 2017-2018

Post #458 by AGENT ZERO » Tue Oct 10, 2017 9:21 pm

mooseOAK wrote:
AGENT ZERO wrote:
LeafOfBread wrote:I don't really like JVR much anymore, nor do I feel good about the idea of keeping both him and Bozak, one of them has to go for sure. That line is porous defensively and I'm sick of watching him fuck the dog with his constant flybys. It sucks because the guy oozes talent and could be a serious game breaker if he tried harder.


Me neither, but to be fair to JVR if he had a better center who was better at transitioning the puck out of the defensive zone (one of JVR's biggest weaknesses) you would probably get more out of him, and his net front ability (passing and scoring) seems like a skill that will age well.

What is "transitioning the puck out of the defensive zone"?

The line has is very good at creating rushes out of the zone, winning puck battles is their weakness.


They turn over the puck alot when trying to exit the defensive zone, it's a big reason they get hemmed in so often.
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Re: ongoing transactions fred 2017-2018

Post #459 by Philthy Thrillz » Tue Oct 10, 2017 9:27 pm

Maybe then they struggle to win puck battles in the d zone and therefore suck at transitioning the puck?

I concur AZ, JT is the play.

Edit: slow on the draw
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Re: ongoing transactions fred 2017-2018

Post #460 by mooseOAK » Tue Oct 10, 2017 10:00 pm

AGENT ZERO wrote:
mooseOAK wrote:
AGENT ZERO wrote:
Me neither, but to be fair to JVR if he had a better center who was better at transitioning the puck out of the defensive zone (one of JVR's biggest weaknesses) you would probably get more out of him, and his net front ability (passing and scoring) seems like a skill that will age well.

What is "transitioning the puck out of the defensive zone"?

The line has is very good at creating rushes out of the zone, winning puck battles is their weakness.


They turn over the puck alot when trying to exit the defensive zone, it's a big reason they get hemmed in so often.

That is because they are trying to create offence and intercepted passes tend to happen when the safe play isn't made.
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Re: ongoing transactions fred 2017-2018

Post #461 by Whit Dickman » Wed Oct 11, 2017 1:11 am

JVR at $4million would be a steal. Wouldn't hurt our cap much at all. He's the type of player who will be effective as an older player as well.

He wouldn't sign that deal though. Not even with a NMC
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Re: ongoing transactions fred 2017-2018

Post #462 by MonkeyWrench » Wed Oct 11, 2017 9:45 am

His skating isn't the best so you're not losing much there. What you'd be paying for after ~30 is his instincts around the net. His shot/tips/bump passes/body positioning/etc. Our very own Holmstrom! :babs:

I don't think he'll accept a deal that's cheap enough for this future roster to succeed when it comes managing the cap. Will be interesting to see if another player shows growth with that particular net precense skill. I noticed Kadri in the last season made a realization that his shot is shit, so he's been doing alot of tips. Especially on the PP.
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Re: ongoing transactions fred 2017-2018

Post #463 by vonbonds » Wed Oct 11, 2017 10:31 am

There's no way you guys give him 8 years and there's no way he takes anywhere close to $4M.

Next topic fellers
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Re: ongoing transactions fred 2017-2018

Post #464 by Whit Dickman » Wed Oct 11, 2017 12:10 pm

New topic: What makes vonbonds' mother such a nurturing lover?
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Re: ongoing transactions fred 2017-2018

Post #465 by Thomas Malthus » Wed Oct 11, 2017 12:15 pm

It's gotta be the cuddling she gives me afterwards. It's divine, makes all my fears go away.
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Re: ongoing transactions fred 2017-2018

Post #466 by vonbonds » Wed Oct 11, 2017 12:23 pm

Whit Dickman wrote:New topic: What makes vonbonds' mother such a nurturing lover?

Jokes on you, she’s from Scotland..ain’t nothing nurturing about her
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Re: ongoing transactions fred 2017-2018

Post #467 by vonbonds » Wed Oct 11, 2017 12:24 pm

Thomas Malthus wrote:It's gotta be the cuddling she gives me afterwards. It's divine, makes all my fears go away.

Be a man and admit you love the beatings she gives you..literally for no reason at all sometimes
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Re: ongoing transactions fred 2017-2018

Post #468 by Thomas Malthus » Wed Oct 11, 2017 12:25 pm

vonbonds wrote:
Thomas Malthus wrote:It's gotta be the cuddling she gives me afterwards. It's divine, makes all my fears go away.

Be a man and admit you love the beatings she gives you..literally for no reason at all sometimes


Given that I'm the foot rub guy around here, would this really surprise anyone?
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Re: ongoing transactions fred 2017-2018

Post #469 by vonbonds » Wed Oct 11, 2017 12:26 pm

Thomas Malthus wrote:
vonbonds wrote:
Thomas Malthus wrote:It's gotta be the cuddling she gives me afterwards. It's divine, makes all my fears go away.

Be a man and admit you love the beatings she gives you..literally for no reason at all sometimes


Given that I'm the foot rub guy around here, would this really surprise anyone?

Link me to that story..I missed that :vince:
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Re: ongoing transactions fred 2017-2018

Post #470 by vf » Wed Oct 11, 2017 12:52 pm

vonbonds wrote:
Thomas Malthus wrote:
vonbonds wrote:Be a man and admit you love the beatings she gives you..literally for no reason at all sometimes


Given that I'm the foot rub guy around here, would this really surprise anyone?

Link me to that story..I missed that :vince:

It's multiple stories all over the broad at this point.
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Re: ongoing transactions fred 2017-2018

Post #471 by vf » Wed Oct 11, 2017 12:54 pm

mooseOAK wrote:
AGENT ZERO wrote:
mooseOAK wrote:What is "transitioning the puck out of the defensive zone"?

The line has is very good at creating rushes out of the zone, winning puck battles is their weakness.


They turn over the puck alot when trying to exit the defensive zone, it's a big reason they get hemmed in so often.

That is because they are trying to create offence and intercepted passes tend to happen when the safe play isn't made.


Cheating to create offence. They don't have a safe play because one or more of them blow the zone trying to get going the other way. If they'd sacrifice that offence by offering better support to the dmen and blowing the zone later they'd be a much better balanced line, but, alas they don't seem to have figured it out yet.
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Re: ongoing transactions fred 2017-2018

Post #472 by LeafOfBread » Wed Oct 11, 2017 1:41 pm

Where's LE these days?
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Re: ongoing transactions fred 2017-2018

Post #473 by mooseOAK » Wed Oct 11, 2017 3:27 pm

vf wrote:
mooseOAK wrote:
AGENT ZERO wrote:
They turn over the puck alot when trying to exit the defensive zone, it's a big reason they get hemmed in so often.

That is because they are trying to create offence and intercepted passes tend to happen when the safe play isn't made.


Cheating to create offence. They don't have a safe play because one or more of them blow the zone trying to get going the other way. If they'd sacrifice that offence by offering better support to the dmen and blowing the zone later they'd be a much better balanced line, but, alas they don't seem to have figured it out yet.

Yes, they are cheating to create offence. That isn't necessarily because they don't care it's because it is better for them to do what they are good at and apply their skills than playing defensively which they aren't.

Brian Burke type hockey.
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Re: ongoing transactions fred 2017-2018

Post #474 by AGENT ZERO » Wed Oct 11, 2017 3:39 pm

In what world is being a terrible defensive line better? That trio would be far more effective if they supported the puck and traded some offense for better defense and more responsible puck management.
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Re: ongoing transactions fred 2017-2018

Post #475 by mooseOAK » Wed Oct 11, 2017 3:44 pm

In your opinion. The coach sees what we see and has kept the line together to the point that they are playing together more than any line in the league the last two seasons.
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Re: ongoing transactions fred 2017-2018

Post #476 by AGENT ZERO » Wed Oct 11, 2017 3:55 pm

mooseOAK wrote:In your opinion. The coach sees what we see and has kept the line together to the point that they are playing together more than any line in the league the last two seasons.


Babcock keeps all of his lines together for the most part so that isn't really saying much. Looking at ESTOI it is pretty evident that Babcock trusts that line the least of the top 9.
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Re: ongoing transactions fred 2017-2018

Post #477 by clawfirst » Wed Oct 11, 2017 4:12 pm

It totally says a lot. One of the top 4 coaches in the NHL has them play that way. To a positive goal differential of 10.

Its their best usage. Gotta piss with the dick satan gave ya
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Re: ongoing transactions fred 2017-2018

Post #478 by AGENT ZERO » Wed Oct 11, 2017 4:17 pm

clawfirst wrote:It totally says a lot. One of the top 4 coaches in the NHL has them play that way. To a positive goal differential of 10.

Its their best usage. Gotta piss with the dick satan gave ya


Where do you find goal differentials for a line?
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Re: ongoing transactions fred 2017-2018

Post #479 by Thomas Malthus » Wed Oct 11, 2017 4:24 pm

Whether or not they would be more effective if they shifted focus to be more defensively responsible (even assuming that such a transition could be made) would depend on the rate at which they're trading goals for for goals against. In order for such a shift to be an improvement, goals against would need to go down by more than goals for would.

On one hand, we might think that there are diminishing marginal returns for cheating on offense—going from cheating 60% of the time to 70% of the time gives a bigger increase in goals for than going from 70% to 80%. As such, we might think that shifting away from this degree of cheating could lead to a greater decrease in goals against since going from defending 20% to 30% would be more beneficial than going from defending 30% to 40% (if we also believe there are diminishing marginal returns in defending).

On the other hand, this tradeoff depends on the relative size of the effects. And if that line is bad defensively, the efficiency at which they are converting defensive effort to fewer goals against might be low. Lower even than the smaller increase in goals for you might expect from cheating even when you're already cheating a lot.

But that's probably just a long winded way of saying what everyone already knew.
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Re: ongoing transactions fred 2017-2018

Post #480 by LeafOfBread » Wed Oct 11, 2017 4:28 pm

AGENT ZERO wrote:
clawfirst wrote:It totally says a lot. One of the top 4 coaches in the NHL has them play that way. To a positive goal differential of 10.

Its their best usage. Gotta piss with the dick satan gave ya


Where do you find goal differentials for a line?

https://leftwinglock.com/line-production/

Only shitty thing is they don't let you view past seasons once the new season is underway. IIRC, for the Bozak line, they scored 48 goals but were on for 38 against, highest in the league for both.
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Re: ongoing transactions fred 2017-2018

Post #481 by AGENT ZERO » Wed Oct 11, 2017 4:57 pm

Thomas Malthus wrote:Whether or not they would be more effective if they shifted focus to be more defensively responsible (even assuming that such a transition could be made) would depend on the rate at which they're trading goals for for goals against. In order for such a shift to be an improvement, goals against would need to go down by more than goals for would.

On one hand, we might think that there are diminishing marginal returns for cheating on offense—going from cheating 60% of the time to 70% of the time gives a bigger increase in goals for than going from 70% to 80%. As such, we might think that shifting away from this degree of cheating could lead to a greater decrease in goals against since going from defending 20% to 30% would be more beneficial than going from defending 30% to 40% (if we also believe there are diminishing marginal returns in defending).

On the other hand, this tradeoff depends on the relative size of the effects. And if that line is bad defensively, the efficiency at which they are converting defensive effort to fewer goals against might be low. Lower even than the smaller increase in goals for you might expect from cheating even when you're already cheating a lot.

But that's probably just a long winded way of saying what everyone already knew.


My only issue with judging the relative effects of offense vs defense this way is that I don't believe raw goal totals for or against are the best way to judge offense and defense and tend not to be great predictors of future offense or defense because they are subject to other factors like shooting luck and quality of teammates. Theoretically though I hear what you are saying, and agree.
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Re: ongoing transactions fred 2017-2018

Post #482 by Whit Dickman » Wed Oct 11, 2017 5:04 pm

Having a dangerous Bozak line is really important for our depth. Unlike Edmonton, teams who focus on Matthews will get burned.

Kadris line is important for limiting (or even reversing) the goal differential from the opposing team's top line. But they can't be expected to be relied upon for offense given their rightful focus on defense.
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Re: ongoing transactions fred 2017-2018

Post #483 by vf » Wed Oct 11, 2017 5:13 pm

clawfirst wrote:It totally says a lot. One of the top 4 coaches in the NHL has them play that way. To a positive goal differential of 10.

Its their best usage. Gotta piss with the dick satan gave ya


Can you guess the only line in Toronto to have a negative goal and negative shot differential this season?
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Re: ongoing transactions fred 2017-2018

Post #484 by clawfirst » Wed Oct 11, 2017 5:29 pm

LeafOfBread wrote:
AGENT ZERO wrote:
clawfirst wrote:It totally says a lot. One of the top 4 coaches in the NHL has them play that way. To a positive goal differential of 10.

Its their best usage. Gotta piss with the dick satan gave ya


Where do you find goal differentials for a line?

https://leftwinglock.com/line-production/

Only shitty thing is they don't let you view past seasons once the new season is underway. IIRC, for the Bozak line, they scored 48 goals but were on for 38 against, highest in the league for both.


Answer is my memory
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Re: ongoing transactions fred 2017-2018

Post #485 by clawfirst » Wed Oct 11, 2017 5:30 pm

vf wrote:
clawfirst wrote:It totally says a lot. One of the top 4 coaches in the NHL has them play that way. To a positive goal differential of 10.

Its their best usage. Gotta piss with the dick satan gave ya


Can you guess the only line in Toronto to have a negative goal and negative shot differential this season?

3 games does not a season make
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Re: ongoing transactions fred 2017-2018

Post #486 by Thomas Malthus » Wed Oct 11, 2017 5:38 pm

AGENT ZERO wrote:
Thomas Malthus wrote:Snip.


My only issue with judging the relative effects of offense vs defense this way is that I don't believe raw goal totals for or against are the best way to judge offense and defense and tend not to be great predictors of future offense or defense because they are subject to other factors like shooting luck and quality of teammates. Theoretically though I hear what you are saying, and agree.


You could replace "goals" with "expected goals". I used goals as a short hand stand in for some measure of offensive and defensive success. The point is that theory doesn't give us an unambiguous answer, so the question is an empirical one and could very well result in evidence that Babs is using that line optimally.
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Re: ongoing transactions fred 2017-2018

Post #487 by vf » Wed Oct 11, 2017 7:28 pm

clawfirst wrote:
vf wrote:
clawfirst wrote:It totally says a lot. One of the top 4 coaches in the NHL has them play that way. To a positive goal differential of 10.

Its their best usage. Gotta piss with the dick satan gave ya


Can you guess the only line in Toronto to have a negative goal and negative shot differential this season?

3 games does not a season make


Well duh. They're still a shit defensive line that needs to be sheltered to get offence out of them.
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Re: ongoing transactions fred 2017-2018

Post #488 by mooseOAK » Wed Oct 11, 2017 8:07 pm

vf wrote:
clawfirst wrote:
vf wrote:
Can you guess the only line in Toronto to have a negative goal and negative shot differential this season?

3 games does not a season make


Well duh. They're still a shit defensive line that needs to be sheltered to get offence out of them.

If they are sheltered and they produce then who cares? The Leafs have two other strong lines.
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Re: ongoing transactions fred 2017-2018

Post #489 by AGENT ZERO » Wed Oct 11, 2017 8:38 pm

^ Right now no one, but once it comes time to pay them it will be an issue if management thinks it can get similar production or better at a lower cost.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #490 by LeafOfBread » Thu Oct 12, 2017 11:29 am

Image
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #491 by AGENT ZERO » Fri Oct 13, 2017 5:12 pm

Well this changes things a bit I would think:

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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #492 by Honus Joglund » Fri Oct 13, 2017 5:51 pm

Same issue St. Louis had with Ben Bishop. They still got a second rounder for him at the trade deadline even though he hadn't proven himself in the NHL at that point.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #493 by LeafOfBread » Fri Oct 13, 2017 5:59 pm

AGENT ZERO wrote:Well this changes things a bit I would think:


RIP
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #494 by mooseOAK » Fri Oct 13, 2017 7:06 pm

When I saw them put Matt Martin out there to stand in front of the net on the power play I thought that Leivo could probably do a better job.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #495 by MonkeyWrench » Fri Oct 13, 2017 8:15 pm

mooseOAK wrote:When I saw them put Matt Martin out there to stand in front of the net on the power play I thought that Leivo could probably do a better job.


True. That was less about trying to get a productive pp unit out there though. More about getting the next line going post-special teams. Was something like 10-20 seconds remaining. There was alot of special teams work that game. Needed to get those guys that don't participate on the pp/pk some time to skate.

I could see Leivo kickin in for Martin the odd day. First call if someone goes DTD with somethin. He should get atleast one game in the first 8-10.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #496 by AGENT ZERO » Fri Oct 13, 2017 8:52 pm

I think with injuries Leivo is going to get 39 games, and I hope that he does because next season when we lose a player or two or three, we are going to need a cheap fill in who can score 20.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #497 by Curry Rage » Sat Oct 14, 2017 10:27 am

AGENT ZERO wrote:I think with injuries Leivo is going to get 39 games, and I hope that he does because next season when we lose a player or two or three, we are going to need a cheap fill in who can score 20.


Or they string him along and sign him to a nice "hey, we've got a good thing going here" deal with promises of a spot once those guys leave.
*Buy Oil Stocks!*
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #498 by LeafOfBread » Sat Oct 14, 2017 11:48 am

Curry Rage wrote:
AGENT ZERO wrote:I think with injuries Leivo is going to get 39 games, and I hope that he does because next season when we lose a player or two or three, we are going to need a cheap fill in who can score 20.


Or they string him along and sign him to a nice "hey, we've got a good thing going here" deal with promises of a spot once those guys leave.

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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #499 by paulster » Sat Oct 14, 2017 1:38 pm

Did you know that he “messed up” on purpose because he realized there would be a clip of him saying “shame on me,” so he just changed it at the last second to something stupider but less damaging?

Dubya was a real G.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #500 by WTF » Sat Oct 14, 2017 3:59 pm

He gave us a gift and the onus anus is on us to keep it.


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