Our Fast and Happy Boys host Dallas Stars - 7:00 PM SNET

Results: Will still lose to Boston in 7 games
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Our Fast and Happy Boys host Dallas Stars - 7:00 PM SNET

Post #1 by Honus Joglund » Thu Feb 13, 2020 12:15 am

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Re: Our Fast and Happy Boys host Dallas Stars - 7:00 PM SNET

Post #2 by AZ » Thu Feb 13, 2020 9:24 am

Hopefully the flu bug is behind the team, and they can go back to playing an exciting brand of offensive hockey again. Freddie is also expected to start this one.
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Re: Our Fast and Happy Boys host Dallas Stars - 7:00 PM SNET

Post #3 by LeafOfBread » Thu Feb 13, 2020 11:25 am

Keefe seems to be rolling with that Nylander-Matthews-Marner combination again. Not sure how I feel about that, I understood it last game as both Nylander and Tavares were coming off the flu, but I'd like to see Nylander go back with Tavares now.

On another note, Nick Robertson's older brother Jason is making his NHL debut tonight for Dallas. Good prospect who has 20 goals in 49 AHL games as a rookie, and won the OHL scoring title last year. He's also 6'2" and 200+ lbs. Perfectly ripe to get his first NHL goal...
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Re: Our Fast and Happy Boys host Dallas Stars - 7:00 PM SNET

Post #4 by AZ » Thu Feb 13, 2020 11:41 am

LeafOfBread wrote:Keefe seems to be rolling with that Nylander-Matthews-Marner combination again. Not sure how I feel about that, I understood it last game as both Nylander and Tavares were coming off the flu, but I'd like to see Nylander go back with Tavares now.


I don't mind it, Tavares looked great with Hyman and Kerfoot, and it wasn't fair to judge the big 3 because of the fact that Nylander wasn't 100%. If those three gel it could be magic like the top line in Boston or Colorado when they play their big three together. The only difference is that the Leafs actually have the depth to dress a competent second and third line even when they play their best players together.
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Re: Our Fast and Happy Boys host Dallas Stars - 7:00 PM SNET

Post #5 by AZ » Thu Feb 13, 2020 2:51 pm

The Stars are missing Radulov and Pavelski tonight,

Hintz-Seguin-Perry
Benn-Dickinson-Gurianov
Cogliano-Faksa-Comeau
Robertson-Janmark-Kiviranta

Lindell-Klingberg
Heiskanen-Johns
Oleksiak-Polak

Bishop
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Re: Our Fast and Happy Boys host Dallas Stars - 7:00 PM SNET

Post #6 by Thomas Malthus » Thu Feb 13, 2020 6:40 pm

Corey Perry on the first line seem less than ideal in 2020.
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Re: Our Fast and Happy Boys host Dallas Stars - 7:00 PM SNET

Post #7 by stoney » Thu Feb 13, 2020 7:20 pm

Good thing Keefe gave them yesterday off. They look really fresh and ready
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Re: Our Fast and Happy Boys host Dallas Stars - 7:00 PM SNET

Post #8 by stoney » Thu Feb 13, 2020 7:59 pm

Solid start to the 2nd as well.

Pussies
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Re: Our Fast and Happy Boys host Dallas Stars - 7:00 PM SNET

Post #9 by LeafOfBread » Thu Feb 13, 2020 8:02 pm

Lol, no Radulov no Pavelski no problem
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Re: Our Fast and Happy Boys host Dallas Stars - 7:00 PM SNET

Post #10 by Thomas Malthus » Thu Feb 13, 2020 8:03 pm

So many horrible decisions.

WTF Travis? Matthews covered for Barrie great but then then stopped skating to lazily try swatting that out of the air as the last man back.
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Re: Our Fast and Happy Boys host Dallas Stars - 7:00 PM SNET

Post #11 by Thomas Malthus » Thu Feb 13, 2020 8:03 pm

This team is fucking brain dead.
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Re: Our Fast and Happy Boys host Dallas Stars - 7:00 PM SNET

Post #12 by Philthy Thrillz » Thu Feb 13, 2020 8:11 pm

Easy Kyle, we don’t need any pulled vaginas.
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Re: Our Fast and Happy Boys host Dallas Stars - 7:00 PM SNET

Post #13 by Thomas Malthus » Thu Feb 13, 2020 8:48 pm

Ooooof Kassian.
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Re: Our Fast and Happy Boys host Dallas Stars - 7:00 PM SNET

Post #14 by Thomas Malthus » Thu Feb 13, 2020 8:54 pm

Tavares barely even touched him FFS.
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Re: Our Fast and Happy Boys host Dallas Stars - 7:00 PM SNET

Post #15 by LeafOfBread » Thu Feb 13, 2020 8:55 pm

Refs are a joke, that's probably game
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Re: Our Fast and Happy Boys host Dallas Stars - 7:00 PM SNET

Post #16 by Thomas Malthus » Thu Feb 13, 2020 8:58 pm

Hit the fucking net Tyson.
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Re: Our Fast and Happy Boys host Dallas Stars - 7:00 PM SNET

Post #17 by Thomas Malthus » Thu Feb 13, 2020 9:08 pm

Stars playing a real clean game...
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Re: Our Fast and Happy Boys host Dallas Stars - 7:00 PM SNET

Post #18 by Thomas Malthus » Thu Feb 13, 2020 9:20 pm

Fred is killing us lately.
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Re: Our Fast and Happy Boys host Dallas Stars - 7:00 PM SNET

Post #19 by Thomas Malthus » Thu Feb 13, 2020 9:26 pm

Pissed away an entirely winnable game.
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Re: Our Fast and Happy Boys host Dallas Stars - 7:00 PM SNET

Post #20 by LeafOfBread » Thu Feb 13, 2020 9:26 pm

Really disappointing, they needed that effort consistently. Refs were also a disgrace. Good thing the Panthers suck balls too
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Re: Our Fast and Happy Boys host Dallas Stars - 7:00 PM SNET

Post #21 by WTF » Thu Feb 13, 2020 9:32 pm

Wasted opportunity to at least get a point tonight.
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Re: Our Fast and Happy Boys host Dallas Stars - 7:00 PM SNET

Post #22 by AZ » Thu Feb 13, 2020 10:01 pm

Andersen sucks
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Re: Our Fast and Happy Boys host Dallas Stars - 7:00 PM SNET

Post #23 by AZ » Thu Feb 13, 2020 10:03 pm

Thomas Malthus wrote:Fred is killing us lately.


Outside of November he has been among the worst starting goalies. I've never really been a fan of his, and think he is largely overrated.
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Re: Our Fast and Happy Boys host Dallas Stars - 7:00 PM SNET

Post #24 by Thomas Malthus » Thu Feb 13, 2020 11:18 pm

My faith in Fred is shaken. I didn’t like the deal for him and contract initially but he was great for us and I warmed up. I thought his numbers underrated him because pre-shot movement isn’t in xGA and GSAA stats but the Leafs porous defense allows a lot of it. Now I’m not so sure. He has great consistency at the season-level but game to game you never know what you’re in for. And his performances heading into the end of the season and playoffs have been atrocious.

I think that’s it for me until after the deadline. The hockey isn’t even fun to watch. At least spending 3 hours on foot rubs gets me a blowjob and some brownie points.
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Re: Our Fast and Happy Boys host Dallas Stars - 7:00 PM SNET

Post #25 by Curry Rage » Fri Feb 14, 2020 2:39 am

But we took the Babcock and gave you the Keefe.

We gave you many short passes and the circling back.

We unleashed the Tyson Barrie.

We have changed the lines very many times.

We said the nice things.

We take many shots and score many goals.

Why do you all have the sads?
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Re: Our Fast and Happy Boys host Dallas Stars - 7:00 PM SNET

Post #26 by Curry Rage » Fri Feb 14, 2020 3:04 am

So, Tavares gives the puck away while we’re doing that cute little breakout pass thing we do and Gurianov gets to walk in alone, we cheat to offence and shit the bed giving Faksa a long breakaway (what did Auston think he was going to do, knock the puck out of mid air?) and Seguin is all alone backdoor with “pre-shot movement” but it’s the goaltender’s fault?

Save percentage is in great degree a team stat. I think it’s even more of one at the margins. That’s where contesting shots, altering the shooter’s angle, boxing out and allowing shots from predictable locations all come into play. We still give up Grade A chances regularly due to individuals and due to the system. Rask wouldn’t be throwing up .930 behind this team.

Good teams make goalies better. Good teams play in a way that helps cover for goaltenders when they aren’t at their best. Good GMs have good backups and don’t get to blame the lack of one on 20 year old kids strong-arming them in negotiations. Good teams don’t look at their soft, unbalanced defence and think “Shit, Imma add me some Tyson Barrie to this mofo!” Management, the coach and the skills of the players are to blame for the up and down results. Pinning it all on one guy is a cop out for the rest of them. We do a high wire act every night. When it works out, it’s beautiful. When it doesn’t, there’s a fucking puddle on the pavement. Maybe if we weren’t so busy trying to rewrite the rules of winning hockey we’d find a happy medium.

We can score. As long as we’re in the shitter for high danger chances against (take that relative percentage stat and shove it) we’ll feel like it’s Groundhog Day.
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Re: Our Fast and Happy Boys host Dallas Stars - 7:00 PM SNET

Post #27 by stoney » Fri Feb 14, 2020 8:43 am

This about sums it up for me.

I was going to attempt an insight, but I care about as much as they do.
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Re: Our Fast and Happy Boys host Dallas Stars - 7:00 PM SNET

Post #28 by paulster » Fri Feb 14, 2020 8:54 am

There’s always next year.
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Re: Our Fast and Happy Boys host Dallas Stars - 7:00 PM SNET

Post #29 by AZ » Fri Feb 14, 2020 9:04 am

Curry Rage wrote:So, Tavares gives the puck away while we’re doing that cute little breakout pass thing we do and Gurianov gets to walk in alone, we cheat to offence and shit the bed giving Faksa a long breakaway (what did Auston think he was going to do, knock the puck out of mid air?) and Seguin is all alone backdoor with “pre-shot movement” but it’s the goaltender’s fault?

Save percentage is in great degree a team stat. I think it’s even more of one at the margins. That’s where contesting shots, altering the shooter’s angle, boxing out and allowing shots from predictable locations all come into play. We still give up Grade A chances regularly due to individuals and due to the system. Rask wouldn’t be throwing up .930 behind this team.

Good teams make goalies better. Good teams play in a way that helps cover for goaltenders when they aren’t at their best. Good GMs have good backups and don’t get to blame the lack of one on 20 year old kids strong-arming them in negotiations. Good teams don’t look at their soft, unbalanced defence and think “Shit, Imma add me some Tyson Barrie to this mofo!” Management, the coach and the skills of the players are to blame for the up and down results. Pinning it all on one guy is a cop out for the rest of them. We do a high wire act every night. When it works out, it’s beautiful. When it doesn’t, there’s a fucking puddle on the pavement. Maybe if we weren’t so busy trying to rewrite the rules of winning hockey we’d find a happy medium.

We can score. As long as we’re in the shitter for high danger chances against (take that relative percentage stat and shove it) we’ll feel like it’s Groundhog Day.


The Leafs defense is below average, but you still need your goalie to bail you out every now and again. Andersen has not done that this year, and it's not like he hasn't played behind a bad defense before.
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Re: Our Fast and Happy Boys host Dallas Stars - 7:00 PM SNET

Post #30 by AZ » Fri Feb 14, 2020 9:09 am

stoney wrote:This about sums it up for me.

I was going to attempt an insight, but I care about as much as they do.


I don't think that is a fair comment to make about the whole team. Matthews, Marner, Tavares, Hyman (and now Clifford) have clearly been working. Matthews in particular has been a beast at both ends for well over a month now, and regardless of how this season goes, that is huge for the long term outlook of this team. A big issue, which doesn't seem to be talked about much, is that our bottom 6 has been fucking atrocious. Outside of the occasional Kapanen flash we aren't getting anything from them, and their defense and energy don't help to offset the complete lack of offense.
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Re: Our Fast and Happy Boys host Dallas Stars - 7:00 PM SNET

Post #31 by paulster » Fri Feb 14, 2020 9:14 am

AZ wrote:
Curry Rage wrote:So, Tavares gives the puck away while we’re doing that cute little breakout pass thing we do and Gurianov gets to walk in alone, we cheat to offence and shit the bed giving Faksa a long breakaway (what did Auston think he was going to do, knock the puck out of mid air?) and Seguin is all alone backdoor with “pre-shot movement” but it’s the goaltender’s fault?

Save percentage is in great degree a team stat. I think it’s even more of one at the margins. That’s where contesting shots, altering the shooter’s angle, boxing out and allowing shots from predictable locations all come into play. We still give up Grade A chances regularly due to individuals and due to the system. Rask wouldn’t be throwing up .930 behind this team.

Good teams make goalies better. Good teams play in a way that helps cover for goaltenders when they aren’t at their best. Good GMs have good backups and don’t get to blame the lack of one on 20 year old kids strong-arming them in negotiations. Good teams don’t look at their soft, unbalanced defence and think “Shit, Imma add me some Tyson Barrie to this mofo!” Management, the coach and the skills of the players are to blame for the up and down results. Pinning it all on one guy is a cop out for the rest of them. We do a high wire act every night. When it works out, it’s beautiful. When it doesn’t, there’s a fucking puddle on the pavement. Maybe if we weren’t so busy trying to rewrite the rules of winning hockey we’d find a happy medium.

We can score. As long as we’re in the shitter for high danger chances against (take that relative percentage stat and shove it) we’ll feel like it’s Groundhog Day.


The Leafs defense is below average, but you still need your goalie to bail you out every now and again. Andersen has not done that this year, and it's not like he hasn't played behind a bad defense before.


Andersen blew Game 7 last spring as well. We need a new goalie. NEXT!
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Re: Our Fast and Happy Boys host Dallas Stars - 7:00 PM SNET

Post #32 by AZ » Fri Feb 14, 2020 9:21 am

Curry Rage wrote:Good teams don’t look at their soft, unbalanced defence and think “Shit, Imma add me some Tyson Barrie to this mofo!” Management, the coach and the skills of the players are to blame for the up and down results.


I am the furthest thing from a Tyson Barrie truther, but it is misleading to pretend like he was added just to add moar goalz! The Leafs were abused by the Bruins the last two years on the forecheck because they continually targeted our RS D (Polak, OZ, Zaitsev, Hainsey, Marincin) and none of them could make a pass to relieve the pressure. Barrie was added to help facilitate a breakout from the RS, and he has helped to do that. You can pin the lack of balance on our blueline on Dubas, but realistically who was available that would have been improvement on what we already have? Brodie didn't want to come here, and I don't know who else could have been targeted that would have changed the outlook of our defense.
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Re: Our Fast and Happy Boys host Dallas Stars - 7:00 PM SNET

Post #33 by AZ » Fri Feb 14, 2020 9:25 am

paulster wrote:
AZ wrote:
Curry Rage wrote:So, Tavares gives the puck away while we’re doing that cute little breakout pass thing we do and Gurianov gets to walk in alone, we cheat to offence and shit the bed giving Faksa a long breakaway (what did Auston think he was going to do, knock the puck out of mid air?) and Seguin is all alone backdoor with “pre-shot movement” but it’s the goaltender’s fault?

Save percentage is in great degree a team stat. I think it’s even more of one at the margins. That’s where contesting shots, altering the shooter’s angle, boxing out and allowing shots from predictable locations all come into play. We still give up Grade A chances regularly due to individuals and due to the system. Rask wouldn’t be throwing up .930 behind this team.

Good teams make goalies better. Good teams play in a way that helps cover for goaltenders when they aren’t at their best. Good GMs have good backups and don’t get to blame the lack of one on 20 year old kids strong-arming them in negotiations. Good teams don’t look at their soft, unbalanced defence and think “Shit, Imma add me some Tyson Barrie to this mofo!” Management, the coach and the skills of the players are to blame for the up and down results. Pinning it all on one guy is a cop out for the rest of them. We do a high wire act every night. When it works out, it’s beautiful. When it doesn’t, there’s a fucking puddle on the pavement. Maybe if we weren’t so busy trying to rewrite the rules of winning hockey we’d find a happy medium.

We can score. As long as we’re in the shitter for high danger chances against (take that relative percentage stat and shove it) we’ll feel like it’s Groundhog Day.


The Leafs defense is below average, but you still need your goalie to bail you out every now and again. Andersen has not done that this year, and it's not like he hasn't played behind a bad defense before.


Andersen blew Game 7 last spring as well. We need a new goalie. NEXT!


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Re: Our Fast and Happy Boys host Dallas Stars - 7:00 PM SNET

Post #34 by Curry Rage » Fri Feb 14, 2020 10:09 am

AZ wrote:
stoney wrote:This about sums it up for me.

I was going to attempt an insight, but I care about as much as they do.


I don't think that is a fair comment to make about the whole team. Matthews, Marner, Tavares, Hyman (and now Clifford) have clearly been working. Matthews in particular has been a beast at both ends for well over a month now, and regardless of how this season goes, that is huge for the long term outlook of this team. A big issue, which doesn't seem to be talked about much, is that our bottom 6 has been fucking atrocious. Outside of the occasional Kapanen flash we aren't getting anything from them, and their defense and energy don't help to offset the complete lack of offense.



Matthews was an asshole on Faksa’s goal. It’s totally fair.
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Re: Our Fast and Happy Boys host Dallas Stars - 7:00 PM SNET

Post #35 by Curry Rage » Fri Feb 14, 2020 10:12 am

AZ wrote:
Curry Rage wrote:Good teams don’t look at their soft, unbalanced defence and think “Shit, Imma add me some Tyson Barrie to this mofo!” Management, the coach and the skills of the players are to blame for the up and down results.


I am the furthest thing from a Tyson Barrie truther, but it is misleading to pretend like he was added just to add moar goalz! The Leafs were abused by the Bruins the last two years on the forecheck because they continually targeted our RS D (Polak, OZ, Zaitsev, Hainsey, Marincin) and none of them could make a pass to relieve the pressure. Barrie was added to help facilitate a breakout from the RS, and he has helped to do that. You can pin the lack of balance on our blueline on Dubas, but realistically who was available that would have been improvement on what we already have? Brodie didn't want to come here, and I don't know who else could have been targeted that would have changed the outlook of our defense.


That’s management’s problem. What Barrie gives you on the breakout he takes away with soft in-zone play. That’s a dog of a trade when you get a putative top 4 guy who can’t be trusted in top 4 minutes.
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Re: Our Fast and Happy Boys host Dallas Stars - 7:00 PM SNET

Post #36 by AZ » Fri Feb 14, 2020 10:31 am

Curry Rage wrote:
AZ wrote:
stoney wrote:This about sums it up for me.

I was going to attempt an insight, but I care about as much as they do.


I don't think that is a fair comment to make about the whole team. Matthews, Marner, Tavares, Hyman (and now Clifford) have clearly been working. Matthews in particular has been a beast at both ends for well over a month now, and regardless of how this season goes, that is huge for the long term outlook of this team. A big issue, which doesn't seem to be talked about much, is that our bottom 6 has been fucking atrocious. Outside of the occasional Kapanen flash we aren't getting anything from them, and their defense and energy don't help to offset the complete lack of offense.



Matthews was an asshole on Faksa’s goal. It’s totally fair.


And was a stud the rest of the game with a positive shot share and expected goal share.
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Re: Our Fast and Happy Boys host Dallas Stars - 7:00 PM SNET

Post #37 by AZ » Fri Feb 14, 2020 10:35 am

Curry Rage wrote:
AZ wrote:
Curry Rage wrote:Good teams don’t look at their soft, unbalanced defence and think “Shit, Imma add me some Tyson Barrie to this mofo!” Management, the coach and the skills of the players are to blame for the up and down results.


I am the furthest thing from a Tyson Barrie truther, but it is misleading to pretend like he was added just to add moar goalz! The Leafs were abused by the Bruins the last two years on the forecheck because they continually targeted our RS D (Polak, OZ, Zaitsev, Hainsey, Marincin) and none of them could make a pass to relieve the pressure. Barrie was added to help facilitate a breakout from the RS, and he has helped to do that. You can pin the lack of balance on our blueline on Dubas, but realistically who was available that would have been improvement on what we already have? Brodie didn't want to come here, and I don't know who else could have been targeted that would have changed the outlook of our defense.


That’s management’s problem. What Barrie gives you on the breakout he takes away with soft in-zone play. That’s a dog of a trade when you get a putative top 4 guy who can’t be trusted in top 4 minutes.


Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but doesn't Barrie have a positive CF% and xG% since the Keefe hiring. He definitely sucks defensively, but I was under the impression that he was hovering above water since the coaching change.
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Re: Our Fast and Happy Boys host Dallas Stars - 7:00 PM SNET

Post #38 by LeafOfBread » Fri Feb 14, 2020 11:02 am

AZ wrote:
Curry Rage wrote:
AZ wrote:
I am the furthest thing from a Tyson Barrie truther, but it is misleading to pretend like he was added just to add moar goalz! The Leafs were abused by the Bruins the last two years on the forecheck because they continually targeted our RS D (Polak, OZ, Zaitsev, Hainsey, Marincin) and none of them could make a pass to relieve the pressure. Barrie was added to help facilitate a breakout from the RS, and he has helped to do that. You can pin the lack of balance on our blueline on Dubas, but realistically who was available that would have been improvement on what we already have? Brodie didn't want to come here, and I don't know who else could have been targeted that would have changed the outlook of our defense.


That’s management’s problem. What Barrie gives you on the breakout he takes away with soft in-zone play. That’s a dog of a trade when you get a putative top 4 guy who can’t be trusted in top 4 minutes.


Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but doesn't Barrie have a positive CF% and xG% since the Keefe hiring. He definitely sucks defensively, but I was under the impression that he was hovering above water since the coaching change.


Keefe's first game was Nov 21, 5v5 score-adjusted numbers filtering out for at least 200 min played:

He's got the 3rd best CF% amongst D, 10th overall on the team. Muzzin has an insane 56%, which is the best on the entire team, but he did miss some time (25 games vs 30-35 games for most of the other players), and Holl is second in D with 53.73%, slightly higher than Barrie's 53.42%.

In terms of CA/60, the only player who is worse than Tyson Barrie is Morgan Rielly. For comparison, Muzzin gives up 50 shot attempts against/60 while Barrie is at 57 and Rielly at an ugly 60.

xGF%, he's 54% but he's actually 4th amongst D as even Travis Dermott is better there, and he's 10th overall again on the team. Again, in terms of xGA/60 the only D worse is Rielly.

In terms of scoring chances against, both total and high danger, Holl and Rielly rank worse than Barrie. However, it's important to note that Barrie starts 60% of his shifts in the offensive zone, which is the highest of any Leafs D and 4th highest on the whole team.

His numbers are good, but nothing to really write home about considering that most of the team is putting up some pretty gaudy possession and expected goal numbers. Only Ceci is under 50% CF and Kapanen under 50% xGF. If anything these numbers highlight the importance of Muzzin even more. And despite Barrie supposedly being an offensive stud and getting fed these prime offensive opportunities (don't get me wrong, his production is very good and he's done a good job on the PP in particular), he isn't even the leader in CF/60 or xGF/60 amongst the D.

I disliked the trade then and I fucking hate it now. The only solace that can be had is that Barrie has at least handled the offensive responsibilities at a respectable level with Rielly out, but this trade never really addressed the key concerns on the back end which was actually being able to play some fucking defense.
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Re: Our Fast and Happy Boys host Dallas Stars - 7:00 PM SNET

Post #39 by AZ » Fri Feb 14, 2020 11:29 am

Thanks for the insight LOB. FTR, I also dislike the Barrie trade in hindsight, but I understand the rationale and with Kadri's age and style of play I have serious doubts that he will be an effective player for much longer.
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Re: Our Fast and Happy Boys host Dallas Stars - 7:00 PM SNET

Post #40 by LeafOfBread » Fri Feb 14, 2020 12:15 pm

I mean, he's only got 2 years left at this point at a pretty reasonable cap hit. He's still produced at a 30 goal, 60 pt pace this season while playing some hard minutes and has been good on the PP for them. The Leafs also have an inconsistent and often invisible third line this season with Kerfoot not even playing C and Spezza and Engvall rotating in and out. With Keefe here as well he would've also used Nazem differently than Babs did and as we've seen he's not shy about loading up or double shifting so he would've gotten to play much more and get reps in with Tavares or Matthews (and he looked good doing so in the odd times Babs did that last year). It's a real shame that never materialized and I wonder what could've been. It's also just nice to have a sparkplug player that draws the team in, they've been missing that this season and you could even see yesterday after the Clifford fight how it ignited the team a bit. Also there aren't too many players who go through as much adversity in this market as he did and still love playing here as much as he did; the guy wanted to retire a Leaf and he gave his heart and soul.

The injuries are a bit concerning though, I will give you that. He's been a fairly durable/healthy player for most of his career but he missed some time last season and this season he's missed 5 games and is now out week-to-week apparently. Seems like he's been dealing a lot with groin/hammy issues which is never good. His underlying numbers are also not great, but he's still above 50% in possession and he's played mostly with Donskoi, Compher and Burakovsky who have been tweener players for most of their careers thus far and are not really good play drivers (Bura to his credit is having a good season though).
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Re: Our Fast and Happy Boys host Dallas Stars - 7:00 PM SNET

Post #41 by AZ » Fri Feb 14, 2020 12:27 pm

LeafOfBread wrote:I mean, he's only got 2 years left at this point at a pretty reasonable cap hit. He's still produced at a 30 goal, 60 pt pace this season while playing some hard minutes and has been good on the PP for them. The Leafs also have an inconsistent and often invisible third line this season with Kerfoot not even playing C and Spezza and Engvall rotating in and out. With Keefe here as well he would've also used Nazem differently than Babs did and as we've seen he's not shy about loading up or double shifting so he would've gotten to play much more and get reps in with Tavares or Matthews (and he looked good doing so in the odd times Babs did that last year). It's a real shame that never materialized and I wonder what could've been. It's also just nice to have a sparkplug player that draws the team in, they've been missing that this season and you could even see yesterday after the Clifford fight how it ignited the team a bit. Also there aren't too many players who go through as much adversity in this market as he did and still love playing here as much as he did; the guy wanted to retire a Leaf and he gave his heart and soul.

The injuries are a bit concerning though, I will give you that. He's been a fairly durable/healthy player for most of his career but he missed some time last season and this season he's missed 5 games and is now out week-to-week apparently. Seems like he's been dealing a lot with groin/hammy issues which is never good. His underlying numbers are also not great, but he's still above 50% in possession and he's played mostly with Donskoi, Compher and Burakovsky who have been tweener players for most of their careers thus far and are not really good play drivers (Bura to his credit is having a good season though).


I agree with all of this, like I said I don't like the trade in hindsight and even at the time had some reservations. That said, I still trust in Dubas, he has had some missteps but the overall scope of his work has been positive IMO.
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Re: Our Fast and Happy Boys host Dallas Stars - 7:00 PM SNET

Post #42 by LeafOfBread » Fri Feb 14, 2020 3:00 pm

Curry Rage wrote:So, Tavares gives the puck away while we’re doing that cute little breakout pass thing we do and Gurianov gets to walk in alone, we cheat to offence and shit the bed giving Faksa a long breakaway (what did Auston think he was going to do, knock the puck out of mid air?) and Seguin is all alone backdoor with “pre-shot movement” but it’s the goaltender’s fault?

Save percentage is in great degree a team stat. I think it’s even more of one at the margins. That’s where contesting shots, altering the shooter’s angle, boxing out and allowing shots from predictable locations all come into play. We still give up Grade A chances regularly due to individuals and due to the system. Rask wouldn’t be throwing up .930 behind this team.

Good teams make goalies better. Good teams play in a way that helps cover for goaltenders when they aren’t at their best. Good GMs have good backups and don’t get to blame the lack of one on 20 year old kids strong-arming them in negotiations. Good teams don’t look at their soft, unbalanced defence and think “Shit, Imma add me some Tyson Barrie to this mofo!” Management, the coach and the skills of the players are to blame for the up and down results. Pinning it all on one guy is a cop out for the rest of them. We do a high wire act every night. When it works out, it’s beautiful. When it doesn’t, there’s a fucking puddle on the pavement. Maybe if we weren’t so busy trying to rewrite the rules of winning hockey we’d find a happy medium.

We can score. As long as we’re in the shitter for high danger chances against (take that relative percentage stat and shove it) we’ll feel like it’s Groundhog Day.


I get where you're coming from Rage, but the Leafs are not so porous defensively that they can completely tank their goalie's sv% to a bottom 10 level. There's a lot of issues around the consistency of this team and how they structurally play D, but having a sv% that is sub .900 on the season and only receiving one month of goaltending above .900 (November) is unacceptable.

For comparison's sake, even in the 13/14 season where they had the 18-wheeler collapse and relied on run & gun Carlyle hockey and set historic records with how badly they were getting outshot every night, they still had the 10th best sv% in the league and that was with fucking Bernier and Reimer. Please don't tell me that this team is worse defensively than that one.
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Re: Our Fast and Happy Boys host Dallas Stars - 7:00 PM SNET

Post #43 by stoney » Fri Feb 14, 2020 4:10 pm

AZ wrote:
Curry Rage wrote:
AZ wrote:
I don't think that is a fair comment to make about the whole team. Matthews, Marner, Tavares, Hyman (and now Clifford) have clearly been working. Matthews in particular has been a beast at both ends for well over a month now, and regardless of how this season goes, that is huge for the long term outlook of this team. A big issue, which doesn't seem to be talked about much, is that our bottom 6 has been fucking atrocious. Outside of the occasional Kapanen flash we aren't getting anything from them, and their defense and energy don't help to offset the complete lack of offense.



Matthews was an asshole on Faksa’s goal. It’s totally fair.


And was a stud the rest of the game with a positive shot share and expected goal share.


Which one of those went in the Dallas net?

(Good to see you back by the way)
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Re: Our Fast and Happy Boys host Dallas Stars - 7:00 PM SNET

Post #44 by AGENT ZERO » Fri Feb 14, 2020 4:46 pm

stoney wrote:
AZ wrote:
Curry Rage wrote:

Matthews was an asshole on Faksa’s goal. It’s totally fair.


And was a stud the rest of the game with a positive shot share and expected goal share.


Which one of those went in the Dallas net?

(Good to see you back by the way)


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Re: Our Fast and Happy Boys host Dallas Stars - 7:00 PM SNET

Post #45 by stoney » Fri Feb 14, 2020 5:05 pm

AGENT ZERO wrote:
stoney wrote:
AZ wrote:
And was a stud the rest of the game with a positive shot share and expected goal share.


Which one of those went in the Dallas net?

(Good to see you back by the way)




Sorry I wasn't clear. I should have highlighted the positive and expected share part was what I was getting at.

He's a wash that game on the scoreboard and it's a shame because he fucked the dog on an easy blueline cover.
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Re: Our Fast and Happy Boys host Dallas Stars - 7:00 PM SNET

Post #46 by Curry Rage » Sun Feb 16, 2020 12:46 pm

LeafOfBread wrote:
Curry Rage wrote:So, Tavares gives the puck away while we’re doing that cute little breakout pass thing we do and Gurianov gets to walk in alone, we cheat to offence and shit the bed giving Faksa a long breakaway (what did Auston think he was going to do, knock the puck out of mid air?) and Seguin is all alone backdoor with “pre-shot movement” but it’s the goaltender’s fault?

Save percentage is in great degree a team stat. I think it’s even more of one at the margins. That’s where contesting shots, altering the shooter’s angle, boxing out and allowing shots from predictable locations all come into play. We still give up Grade A chances regularly due to individuals and due to the system. Rask wouldn’t be throwing up .930 behind this team.

Good teams make goalies better. Good teams play in a way that helps cover for goaltenders when they aren’t at their best. Good GMs have good backups and don’t get to blame the lack of one on 20 year old kids strong-arming them in negotiations. Good teams don’t look at their soft, unbalanced defence and think “Shit, Imma add me some Tyson Barrie to this mofo!” Management, the coach and the skills of the players are to blame for the up and down results. Pinning it all on one guy is a cop out for the rest of them. We do a high wire act every night. When it works out, it’s beautiful. When it doesn’t, there’s a fucking puddle on the pavement. Maybe if we weren’t so busy trying to rewrite the rules of winning hockey we’d find a happy medium.

We can score. As long as we’re in the shitter for high danger chances against (take that relative percentage stat and shove it) we’ll feel like it’s Groundhog Day.


I get where you're coming from Rage, but the Leafs are not so porous defensively that they can completely tank their goalie's sv% to a bottom 10 level. There's a lot of issues around the consistency of this team and how they structurally play D, but having a sv% that is sub .900 on the season and only receiving one month of goaltending above .900 (November) is unacceptable.

For comparison's sake, even in the 13/14 season where they had the 18-wheeler collapse and relied on run & gun Carlyle hockey and set historic records with how badly they were getting outshot every night, they still had the 10th best sv% in the league and that was with fucking Bernier and Reimer. Please don't tell me that this team is worse defensively than that one.



Here’s the thing, a different team plays in a way that makes Freddie’s sv% lull better by 10 points. Still average/below average but probably more easily countered by what they do at the other end of the ice.

Are we to understand that his worst stretch of play for this club (he’s always swung between his stretches of .900 and .930) just happens to coincide with Keefe arriving? Or is it a confluence of individual and environmental factors? There’s an argument to be made that it has been compounded by not having a competent backup to spell him to give him more rest/practice/favourable starts to get his game together. Fred has had a rough go outside of November, but Hutchinson was even worse.

Oh, and wouldn’t more shots against tend to pad sv% stats depending on location, etc? I seem to recall that argument being made against Reims/Bernier at the time given that that team used to collapse to the house and give up point shots galore. But my memory is foggy, compounded by having been out at a cider festival all day yesterday. Lol

I’m not here to say that Freddie has been good. But I think the troubles we have are way more complicated than one player. For me, when I see a team near the top of the league in SCF and HDSCF but in the bottom five for both SCA and HDSCA, I think there’s more to blowing leads, etc. than Freddie’s five hole.

And here’s a case where those simple observational stats (not attempts at complex modelling like xG) agree with the eye test when we see the two EV goals they gave up the other night, for instance.
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Re: Our Fast and Happy Boys host Dallas Stars - 7:00 PM SNET

Post #47 by clawfirst » Sun Feb 16, 2020 2:44 pm

Freddy is our best goalie since belfour. He just cant handle playing this many games. He needs more rest
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Re: Our Fast and Happy Boys host Dallas Stars - 7:00 PM SNET

Post #48 by Curry Rage » Sun Feb 16, 2020 2:55 pm

AZ wrote:
paulster wrote:
AZ wrote:
The Leafs defense is below average, but you still need your goalie to bail you out every now and again. Andersen has not done that this year, and it's not like he hasn't played behind a bad defense before.


Andersen blew Game 7 last spring as well. We need a new goalie. NEXT!




Behind a club that doesn’t give up a bottom-5 number of high danger chances, do you think that number could be a league average .910? We’re talking about stopping 1-2 additional shots out of 100 every three games or so.

To make it concrete, what if we don’t try the ol’ Ron Wilson chip off the boards into the Stars’ waiting traffic and Gurianov doesn’t get such a nice look on a rusty/injured goalie a couple of minutes in? Or Matthews does his impression of a good defensive forward (think Bergeron or Ratface would’ve floated there?) and hustles to close that gap on Faksa? Are we seeing one of those shots stopped because it’s coming from a different place or not even taken?
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Re: Our Fast and Happy Boys host Dallas Stars - 7:00 PM SNET

Post #49 by chicpea » Sun Feb 16, 2020 2:59 pm

I think Andersen is better than Hutch. But it's close, as your numbers show, Paul.
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Re: Our Fast and Happy Boys host Dallas Stars - 7:00 PM SNET

Post #50 by Curry Rage » Sun Feb 16, 2020 2:59 pm

Lol
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