Whore Island 3.0

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Re: Whore Island 3.0

Post #301 by Dynrehab » Fri Jan 15, 2016 6:39 pm

Thomas Malthus wrote:Friend in my program is interested in hockey. We have a term paper to do. Decided to do it on the impact of coaches.

Initial stages hut likely the way to go is try and create an estimate for wins via players and use the regression residual to account for coaches contribution. Obviously there I'll he unobservables so the interpretation will he muddy but as of right now that's the approach. Direct modelling seems unlikely.

We dis cussed it over pints so I'm kind of tipsy.

Let me know of concerns that you have. It will help us troubleshoot and specify our model.


Can I write an intro for you on culture, espoused values and basic assumptions to help you see why coaches have impact, and why past coaches also have an impact?
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Re: Whore Island 3.0

Post #302 by Thomas Malthus » Fri Jan 15, 2016 7:10 pm

Dynrehab wrote:
Thomas Malthus wrote:Friend in my program is interested in hockey. We have a term paper to do. Decided to do it on the impact of coaches.

Initial stages hut likely the way to go is try and create an estimate for wins via players and use the regression residual to account for coaches contribution. Obviously there I'll he unobservables so the interpretation will he muddy but as of right now that's the approach. Direct modelling seems unlikely.

We dis cussed it over pints so I'm kind of tipsy.

Let me know of concerns that you have. It will help us troubleshoot and specify our model.


Can I write an intro for you on culture, espoused values and basic assumptions to help you see why coaches have impact, and why past coaches also have an impact?


I mean, I'd love to read your thoughts but I kind of want to write my own paper. I have no problem incorporating other people's ideas (I think they call that "research").

The basic idea we're working with is that if you can create an estimate of expected wins provided by each player and sum those up, provided that you have no unobservables that are correlated with wins the residual would be random shocks and coaching impact. I don't think I need to say it but of course we can't observe everything so the residual won't have such a clean interpretation.

Another method would be examining misses on coaching changes and using something like differences-in-differences.
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Re: Whore Island 3.0

Post #303 by Dynrehab » Fri Jan 15, 2016 7:16 pm

Thomas Malthus wrote:
Dynrehab wrote:
Thomas Malthus wrote:Friend in my program is interested in hockey. We have a term paper to do. Decided to do it on the impact of coaches.

Initial stages hut likely the way to go is try and create an estimate for wins via players and use the regression residual to account for coaches contribution. Obviously there I'll he unobservables so the interpretation will he muddy but as of right now that's the approach. Direct modelling seems unlikely.

We dis cussed it over pints so I'm kind of tipsy.

Let me know of concerns that you have. It will help us troubleshoot and specify our model.


Can I write an intro for you on culture, espoused values and basic assumptions to help you see why coaches have impact, and why past coaches also have an impact?


I mean, I'd love to read your thoughts but I kind of want to write my own paper.


:nucks:
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Re: Whore Island 3.0

Post #304 by Philthy Thrillz » Sun Feb 14, 2016 8:23 pm

Frankie leading the league in CF% :stare:

That will give the pedo's a raging boner.
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Re: Whore Island 3.0

Post #305 by Curry Rage » Thu Feb 18, 2016 3:13 pm

https://mapleleafshotstove.com/2016/02/ ... -playbook/

I'm still left wondering "cause or effect"?
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Re: Whore Island 3.0

Post #306 by vf » Thu Feb 18, 2016 4:48 pm

I want my time back Rage. God if only we could get rid of boat anchors like JvR off this team we might win something!
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Re: Whore Island 3.0

Post #307 by Thomas Malthus » Thu Feb 18, 2016 4:52 pm

Based on the R2 above, GAR has the ability to predict roughly 72% of how a team will end up in the standings (retroactively).


Retroactive prediction, huh?

Those are some pretty fucking important outliers on the left side of that graph (and to a lesser extent on the far right) - they could be driving all of the results since without them the slope of the line appears much flatter (to my eye).

If Keith, Sharp, Seabrook and Hossa are all overpaid (and Kane is adequately compensated) if appears to me that perhaps there may be somewhat of a problem. Similar to Burtch's problem with dCorsi weighing too negatively on D with big minutes.

As an aside—why bother putting different colours and symbols if you're going to put the players' names on the graph?

If you combine the result that nearly all of the players on a bad team are overpaid and generating negative value while most of the players on a good team are overpaid, I'm left wondering what the fuck good is this tool.

However, what this result tells me is that a big part of effectively managing a roster will come down to simply not overpaying players. It is extremely hard to find a player that can be signed for less than he is worth


Or you know, that perhaps you forgot to control for contract status in determining whether a guy is overpaid or not (always be thinking of the counterfactual). The real implication is that unless a guy is elite I should comprise my roster entirely of ELCs and never give RFAs more than the required raise (if they want more then I trade 'em).

The point about ensuring that your highest paid guys are "worth their money" is a fair one and certainly one that's been brought up by less quanty people in more accessible language/format. Is this GAR the tool to help determine what guys are worth? Nothing I've seen so far leads me to believe that it's there yet (especially for defensemen and goaltenders).
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Re: Whore Island 3.0

Post #308 by vf » Thu Feb 18, 2016 5:00 pm

Anything that values bulk shots as one of it's components is just hugely flawed. Patches shoots more then Patty Kane. I'm sure his pretty graph loves patches.
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Re: Whore Island 3.0

Post #309 by Curry Rage » Thu Feb 18, 2016 5:20 pm

If you combine the result that nearly all of the players on a bad team are overpaid and generating negative value while most of the players on a good team are overpaid, I'm left wondering what the fuck good is this tool."


Who the fuck has got a guy like Keith who can play 27:00 ATOI and produce like he does for less money?
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Re: Whore Island 3.0

Post #310 by Curry Rage » Thu Feb 18, 2016 5:23 pm

vf wrote:I want my time back Rage. God if only we could get rid of boat anchors like JvR off this team we might win something!


Hey man, this is Whore Island. You takes your chances.
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Re: Whore Island 3.0

Post #311 by Thomas Malthus » Fri Feb 19, 2016 10:06 am

Courage 3.0 wrote:Who the fuck has got a guy like Keith who can play 27:00 ATOI and produce like he does for less money?


That's a real confounder there, innit?
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Re: Whore Island 3.0

Post #312 by Curry Rage » Fri Feb 19, 2016 10:08 am

I'd like the opportunity to overpay him, thankyouverymuch.
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Re: Whore Island 3.0

Post #313 by Honus Joglund » Fri Feb 19, 2016 7:20 pm

I'd rather have Marincin.
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Re: Whore Island 3.0

Post #314 by Thomas Malthus » Sat Feb 20, 2016 1:37 am

Honus Joglund wrote:I'd rather have Marincin.


Than Yandle?
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Re: Whore Island 3.0

Post #315 by Honus Joglund » Sat Feb 20, 2016 8:11 am

Thomas Malthus wrote:
Honus Joglund wrote:I'd rather have Marincin.


Than Yandle?


Duncan Keith.

You saw the numbers.
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Re: Whore Island 3.0

Post #316 by Curry Rage » Sat Feb 20, 2016 8:12 am

This is even worser: https://www.reddit.com/r/hockey/comment ... semen_and/

Here's the top 25 in order:

    Duncan Keith
    Ryan Suter
    John Klingberg
    Marc-Edouard Vlasic
    Brent Burns
    Dustin Byfuglien
    Victor Hedman
    T.J. Brodie
    Jared Spurgeon
    Alex Goligoski
    Hampus Lindholm
    Mattias Ekholm
    Colton Parayko
    Drew Doughty
    Ryan Ellis
    Mark Giordano
    Oliver Ekman-Larsson
    Kris Letang
    Nicklas Hjalmarsson
    Jake Gardiner
    Aaron Ekblad
    Travis Hamonic
    Jake Muzzin
    Erik Karlsson
    Oscar Klefbom


Drew Doughty sucking on Colton Parayko's fumes with Ryan Ellis nipping at his heels. :paulrus:


And never mind all the "should haves" in the making of the metric. As in "I looked at the numbers and things didn't look like they should've. So I added this other number and that made them look more like I think they should. But it still didn't conform to my preconceptions, so I added some more numbers and things looked a little more like I think they should..." The method seems to be, "where one stat is shit, just add a few more shitty ones and eventually it turns to gold!"
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Re: Whore Island 3.0

Post #317 by Philthy Thrillz » Sat Feb 20, 2016 9:15 am

Gardiner top 10 dman :stare:
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Re: Whore Island 3.0

Post #318 by Honus Joglund » Sat Feb 20, 2016 9:28 am

Babz must be a wizard considering he coaxed a flawless defensive tournament and a gold medal out of Team Canada with not-a-top-25-defenseman Shea Weber leading the team in ice time.

Also incredible that the Rangers are 12th in GA despite having the three worst defensemen in the league all playing 19 minutes or more.

By the way, Reddit Hockey is pure garbage unless you love people pandering for internet points, social justice agendas (have you heard of the new NWHL?), John Scott and threads with virtually zero insightful hawkey talks. This dildo just posted a top 25 d-man list with Weber, Josi, McDonagh, Chara, Carlson and Subban absent and Erik Karlsson at #24 and the highest rated comment is about how high quality the post was!

:donger:
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Re: Whore Island 3.0

Post #319 by WTF » Sat Feb 20, 2016 10:21 am

It's juvenile but I can't stop chuckling at the fact that the link in Courage's post shortens to: "https://www.reddit.com/r/hockey/comment ... semen_and/"

As for the contents of the link itself, I stopped reading after a while because if those are the mental contortions required to try to cram a square peg into a round role to make the fancy stats work, I'd rather pass. Trying to make the data fit your expectations is shoddy stuff rather than either analyzing the data collected or examining the metrics used to determine if they're faulty.
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Re: Whore Island 3.0

Post #320 by mooseOAK » Sat Feb 20, 2016 11:31 am

Gardiner for Ekblad and a 5th.
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Re: Whore Island 3.0

Post #321 by Philthy Thrillz » Sat Feb 20, 2016 12:00 pm

You want to trade a top ten dman, ugh....
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Re: Whore Island 3.0

Post #322 by Curry Rage » Sat Feb 20, 2016 12:09 pm

Philthy Thrillz wrote:You want to trade a top ten dman, ugh....


He's like 20th on that list.
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Re: Whore Island 3.0

Post #323 by Philthy Thrillz » Sat Feb 20, 2016 12:15 pm

Ahh I was looking at the last coloum of the overall graph.
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Re: Whore Island 3.0

Post #324 by Curry Rage » Sat Feb 20, 2016 12:25 pm

Whatever you do, don't look at the columned lists...
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Re: Whore Island 3.0

Post #325 by Dynrehab » Sat Feb 20, 2016 1:47 pm

Can anyone explain correlation to me?

What does correlation of .91 mean?
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Re: Whore Island 3.0

Post #326 by Curry Rage » Sat Feb 20, 2016 2:15 pm

Well, presuming they're using Pearson's r-value (very likely) 1.0 would be the strongest possible correlation.

A basic guide:

Image

You can also have negative correlations up to -1.0.
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Re: Whore Island 3.0

Post #327 by Curry Rage » Sat Feb 20, 2016 2:21 pm

Waiting on Malthus to arrive and tell me I'm a peon and I've got it all wrong.
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Re: Whore Island 3.0

Post #328 by Dynrehab » Sat Feb 20, 2016 2:25 pm

So, what does that mean?

If the comparison is Traditional (religious) values vs secular rational values with a correlation of "respondent believes in heaven" rate is .89
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Re: Whore Island 3.0

Post #329 by Curry Rage » Sat Feb 20, 2016 2:35 pm

Then there's a very strong correlation of that idea with Traditional (religious) values. (I presume it's not the other category)
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Re: Whore Island 3.0

Post #330 by Dynrehab » Sat Feb 20, 2016 3:00 pm

Courage 3.0 wrote:Then there's a very strong correlation of that idea with Traditional (religious) values. (I presume it's not the other category)


Thanks. So then what is the correlation to the other category? It says in the secular rational it is the opposite? So .12 or -.88?

Or is it that not believing in heaven is .88.

At that is not a % but just a relative scale from -1.0 to 1.0?
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Re: Whore Island 3.0

Post #331 by Thomas Malthus » Sat Feb 20, 2016 3:04 pm

Courage is write.

A correlation is just a fancy way of talking about a relationship but using numbers. The closer the correlation coefficient is to 1 (or -1) the stronger the relationship. Obligatory "correlation is not causation".

Assuming the relationship is between traditional values and belief in heaven (the correlation coefficient wouldn't make much sense if it was the other category) you could alternatively say, "Having traditional religious values has a strong positive association with belief in heaven." You can think of them as moving together or being found together frequently.
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Re: Whore Island 3.0

Post #332 by vf » Sat Feb 20, 2016 4:07 pm

Dynrehab wrote:
Courage 3.0 wrote:Then there's a very strong correlation of that idea with Traditional (religious) values. (I presume it's not the other category)


Thanks. So then what is the correlation to the other category? It says in the secular rational it is the opposite? So .12 or -.88?

Or is it that not believing in heaven is .88.

At that is not a % but just a relative scale from -1.0 to 1.0?


The correlation for secular ideals would be entirely independent from the correlation of religious views and believing in heaven I believe.
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Re: Whore Island 3.0

Post #333 by Curry Rage » Wed Mar 02, 2016 2:17 pm

Putting this here for my next case of insomnia.

https://mapleleafshotstove.com/2016/03/ ... ve-player/
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Re: Whore Island 3.0

Post #334 by LeafOfBread » Wed Apr 13, 2016 1:37 pm

Colin Greening told The Globe and Mail’s James Mirtle that he looks at the analytics provided by the club to its players. What kinds of things are talked about there? Under intense pressure, Greening gave a bit of a window: "Things like what kinds of plays I make after recovering the puck. Do I cycle it, do I pass it, do I make a play?" I told him I’d heard forcing a defender to switch also gets counted and his facial expression gave it away. Scotty Bowman used to do some similar stuff, such as counting who won what puck battles or who recovered dump-ins.
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Re: Whore Island 3.0

Post #335 by Curry Rage » Wed Apr 13, 2016 3:15 pm

I knew it. That's the sort of shit I'm talking about. Corsis are for kids, yo.

Those are the sorts of things my cousin who works in English football tabulates. Then he puts together film packs for the player(s) to see. It's stuff the player can actually use to improve their play. Not just "shoot more!" though that might be part of it.
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Re: Whore Island 3.0

Post #336 by Curry Rage » Wed Apr 20, 2016 5:25 pm

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Re: Whore Island 3.0

Post #337 by Curry Rage » Thu Apr 21, 2016 3:34 pm

Trade things for Andersen or sign Reimer? Too bad Mrazek is an RFA and not a UFA.

^
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Re: Whore Island 3.0

Post #338 by LeafOfBread » Thu Apr 21, 2016 3:50 pm

Interesting. I think I'm more surprised about Bernier not being dead last on there, I guess the second half of the season salvaged his numbers more than I thought.

Leafs should definitely try and make a pitch for Andersen. Anaheim can't keep both guys and with Gibson locked up, Freddie is the odd man out. The buyers market for goalies is also fairly soft right now, with only Calgary and Toronto being the teams who are truly desperate for a goalie. And since Calgary is in Anaheim's division, I can't see Andersen being traded there. Plus Toronto has a good trading relationship with Anaheim already. With the abundance of forward prospects and picks, I'm sure the Leafs could come up with a reasonable package.

My only worry is if Andersen goes on a hot streak in the playoffs. After losing the first two games to Nashville with Gibson in net, Anaheim turned back to Andersen and he shut the door for game 3. If he keeps that up it may just drive up his price.
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Re: Whore Island 3.0

Post #339 by Curry Rage » Thu Apr 21, 2016 4:00 pm

Yeah, but why trade for a goaler whose statistics don't suggest he's better than Reimer, who is available as a UFA? I don't think Andersen is a long term solution either. So, if you're just looking for a guy *for now*, maybe save your assets?
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Re: Whore Island 3.0

Post #340 by Philthy Thrillz » Thu Apr 21, 2016 4:02 pm

Looks like we should have just kept Reimer for free.
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Re: Whore Island 3.0

Post #341 by Curry Rage » Thu Apr 21, 2016 4:21 pm

I was okay with getting some assets for his expiring contract, though I did expect them to try and move Bernier first. Who knows if they did.

Anyway, we didn't really need great goaltending down the stretch. I'm not sure if the trade signaled the end of the relationship or not.
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Re: Whore Island 3.0

Post #342 by LeafOfBread » Thu Apr 21, 2016 6:15 pm

Courage 3.0 wrote:Yeah, but why trade for a goaler whose statistics don't suggest he's better than Reimer, who is available as a UFA? I don't think Andersen is a long term solution either. So, if you're just looking for a guy *for now*, maybe save your assets?

I think Andersen has good long term potential and he's been really good so far in his career. Even earlier this year when the Ducks were shit and couldn't score any goals, he was sporting over a .930 sv% during that time. Only reason he lost his job was because he got ill for a bit and then the Ducks started winning games with Gibson in net in his absence.

Don't get me wrong I am a big fan of Reimer and would be happy to have him back, but the problem is his durability. He always gets injured at least once a season...
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Re: Whore Island 3.0

Post #343 by Curry Rage » Thu Apr 21, 2016 6:20 pm

Sure. I guess I'm not really sold on either guy being The Solution.
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Re: Whore Island 3.0

Post #344 by vf » Fri Apr 22, 2016 1:30 pm

Griess is a UFA who could be a solid stop gap as well. He's strung a couple of solid seasons together now.
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Re: Whore Island 3.0

Post #345 by Thomas Malthus » Fri Apr 22, 2016 2:22 pm

Interesting snapshot but I want to know how well a previous season's quality start percentage predicts the next season's share of quality starts. Goalie performance is so volatile, I wouldn't put much stock in this. It's certainly within the realm of possibility that Bernier is near the top of that list next season while Reimer or Andersen is lower down.
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Re: Whore Island 3.0

Post #346 by Curry Rage » Sat Apr 23, 2016 5:52 am

Yeah, I agree with that. In the case of Reimer and Andersen it's interesting though, because despite the perception of Andersen being better than Reimer, statistically they're very similar and Andersen played on a better club for much of the year. There is a 2 year age difference, though, and in the lifetime of a goaltender that could be significant as it's possible Andersen may have another gear when he hits his late 20s.
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Re: Whore Island 3.0

Post #347 by Zardoz » Sat Apr 23, 2016 10:10 am

I just don't see the point in trading for goalies. Have we not learned our lesson? Raycroft, Toskala, Bernier. How many combined assets are we doomed to waste before we get a Ben Bishop for Conacher deal?

Goalies are volatile, better to waste UFA money on guys like Reimer until something can rise to the top from within.
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Curry Rage
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Re: Whore Island 3.0

Post #348 by Curry Rage » Sat Apr 30, 2016 5:25 am

*Buy Oil Stocks!*
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cawbber
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Re: Whore Island 3.0

Post #349 by cawbber » Sat Apr 30, 2016 10:37 am

Courage 3.0 wrote:https://mapleleafshotstove.com/2016/04/29/toronto-maple-leafs-scoring-chances-and-zone-entries-season-review/

Tables!

Thanks, 'Rage.
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Re: Whore Island 3.0

Post #350 by LeafErikson » Thu May 12, 2016 6:46 pm


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