ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #1951 by Thomas Malthus » Mon Apr 30, 2018 12:47 pm

Also, can we just appreciate the A+ job the Leafs did dominating the hockey news cycle during the second round that they aren't even in? Some next level trolling right there, boys.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #1952 by Curry Rage » Mon Apr 30, 2018 1:42 pm

I'm happy with either Hunter or Dubas. Either way, I still think it's going to be a kind of committee approach. Babs didn't take hellabux and a 10-year deal to have to take marching orders without a say.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #1953 by Thomas Malthus » Mon Apr 30, 2018 1:48 pm

Shanny says that there's no timetable on finding a new GM, there's no interim GM. The trolling of the playoffs could continue for quite a while. Shanny is a savage.

I'm genuinely curious as to whether or not Hunter would want to give up exclusively focusing on the draft to run things as GM. I suspect it will be Dubas and that if they conduct interviews with external candidates they are simply using this as an opportunity to get outside evaluations and ideas on the organization.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #1954 by cawbber » Mon Apr 30, 2018 3:31 pm

stoney wrote:Is long hair allowed again?

Hippies galore
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #1955 by Curry Rage » Mon Apr 30, 2018 4:15 pm

I'm so over the beard thing.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #1956 by Thomas Malthus » Mon Apr 30, 2018 4:31 pm

Who can even grow one on this team?
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #1957 by Curry Rage » Mon Apr 30, 2018 5:01 pm

Outside of Kadri, I'm not sure.

Apparently we've signed/will sign Par Lindholm, a smallish 26 year-old C who was 4th in scoring in the SHL this year. He seems to be able to skate and has some skill. There's a video kicking around of him hitting Christian Backman (yeah, I think the guy who used to play in St. Louis) pretty high and ringing his bell. Not sure if that sort of thing features regularly in his game or not. If he can PK and shit he may fight for the 4C spot I guess.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #1958 by Transplanted Caper » Mon Apr 30, 2018 5:02 pm

I'd be stunned if it was an external candidate. What happened today was another step in the plan that was put together three years ago. Shanahan built a strong, but inexperienced, front office. Lou was brought in to be that experience and be a short-term bridge to let someone (Dubas, possibly) get the experience necessary to sit in the big chair.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #1959 by Curry Rage » Mon Apr 30, 2018 5:06 pm

Agreed. An external candidate also likely puts two noses out of joint instead of (perhaps) just one.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #1960 by Curry Rage » Mon Apr 30, 2018 5:12 pm

Another odd note about Lindholm; he played on a line with that Lindstrom guy we picked up for flipping Jokinen a couple of years back. He's still alive.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #1961 by clawfirst » Mon Apr 30, 2018 6:12 pm

AGENT ZERO wrote:
clawfirst wrote:I dont care who it is as long as it pisses off the Squints


Now you are just being a goon.

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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #1962 by vf » Mon Apr 30, 2018 6:35 pm

I think it'll be an internal candidate, but I really doubt anything in their MO changes. All things still run through Shanny and Babs.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #1963 by WTF » Mon Apr 30, 2018 7:03 pm

If there's anything they've learned from Lou, it's likely to keep a tight ship and keep the jackals in the media at bay. No leaks from "unnamed sources" to feed them.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #1964 by Thomas Malthus » Mon Apr 30, 2018 7:04 pm

I wouldn't be surprised if they do end up interviewing other people though. I already mentioned sort of taking Babcock's philosophy of stealing from other smart people to the GM level. On top of taking ideas and getting evaluations of the organization from other people whose opinion they respect, there are at least two reasons I could see for interviewing externally.

The first is that interviewing other people emphasizes that the Shanaplan is about process and not about nepotism, groupthink, and specific personalities (the same kinds of things that can get other organizations into trouble imo). Interviewing other people shows that if Shanahan thinks Dubas is the BEST candidate for the Leafs then he'll get the job but not just because he's the nearest candidate who also happens to look pretty good.

The second is that interviewing other people helps avoid the appearance of a coronation for Dubas or Hunter and demonstrates that they've "earned it". Admittedly, the second one is a bit more PR and seems less appealing but it nicely complements the first one.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #1965 by Thomas Malthus » Mon Apr 30, 2018 9:56 pm

So, Mirtle has an article on the Athletic about why Dubas is the correct choice for GM and in it he says "As GM, Dubas can be a strong and necessary countervailing voice to the other big personalities in the Leafs’ front office. He can battle with Babcock and Hunter and whoever else when the need arises. (Not enough of that has been happening the past two years.)"

So I asked him whether or not the lack of battling and disagreement was speculation or reporting based on sources. He replied with "Not enough was happening because poor decisions got made."

I think it's fine to be skeptical that things are going to change a lot, especially if things are still committee or consensus driven and the only personality to leave is Lou. On top of that, I know we've had many a discussion on here about how just because Dubas is comfortable with analytics or sees value in them doesn't mean he does share opinions with traditional hockey executives, but I think a lot of people could use a similar discussion. Seems to me that most people think that giving him the keys would be equivalent to giving the keys to Dellow or Burtch. Maybe he was marginalized in the management group, but perhaps he was in agreement about extending Zaitsev or bringing in Hainsey. Unless you have sources telling you which it is, talking about a lack of disagreement existing based on the decisions that were made is just speculation based on a model you've created of how Dubas thinks. And that's fine but I certainly value speculation a lot differently than reporting.

/endrant
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #1966 by Philthy Thrillz » Mon Apr 30, 2018 10:01 pm

I'd put my money on Hunter. Long time hockey guy with a good eye for hockey talent. He probably will have more respect from fellow GM's than Dubas. And, from the hiring of Lou, they value a guy that has the respect of other GMs.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #1967 by PredsFan77 » Mon Apr 30, 2018 11:27 pm

Thomas Malthus wrote:
PredsFan77 wrote:PAUL FENTON


I actually really like Fenton. I hope he's Seattle's GM.


he's a plug just like Shero
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #1968 by Thomas Malthus » Tue May 01, 2018 11:19 am

Hyman - Matthews - Marner
Johnsson - Tavares - Nylander
Marleau - Kadri - Kapanen
Grundstrom - Lindholm/Aaltonen - Brown
Lindholm/Aaltonen, Leivo

Rielly - Pysyk
Gardiner - Severson
Dermott - Carrick/Franson
Carick/Franson

I'm pretty sure that roster would be cap compliant. I'm like half convinced we could trade Zaitsev for Pysyk. Not exactly sure what it would take for get Severson but it seems like they don't want his contract anymore so I'm guessing not as much as we might think.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #1969 by Philthy Thrillz » Tue May 01, 2018 11:33 am

One of Borgman/Rosen/Lilegren will be on the team next year.

And is the Cody Franson?
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #1970 by Philthy Thrillz » Tue May 01, 2018 11:34 am

If we did actually sign JT, the next move should be Kadri + for a real RHD.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #1971 by AGENT ZERO » Tue May 01, 2018 11:54 am

Philthy Thrillz wrote:One of Borgman/Rosen/Lilegren will be on the team next year.

And is the Cody Franson?


Borgman is the only one with a shot for next season, IMO. Rosen was awful for the Marlies, and Timothy is still incredibly raw and young.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #1972 by AGENT ZERO » Tue May 01, 2018 11:56 am

Thomas Malthus wrote:Hyman - Matthews - Marner
Johnsson - Tavares - Nylander
Marleau - Kadri - Kapanen
Grundstrom - Lindholm/Aaltonen - Brown
Lindholm/Aaltonen, Leivo

Rielly - Pysyk
Gardiner - Severson
Dermott - Carrick/Franson
Carick/Franson

I'm pretty sure that roster would be cap compliant. I'm like half convinced we could trade Zaitsev for Pysyk. Not exactly sure what it would take for get Severson but it seems like they don't want his contract anymore so I'm guessing not as much as we might think.


I assume the plan is to let Gardiner walk the following year and dump Marleau as well, or is that roster cap compliant in 2020 as well? Also, what are you projecting for Marner? Initially I thought we could get him signed for 8.5M but now some insiders are saying that he could get as much as 9 or 10M.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #1973 by Thomas Malthus » Tue May 01, 2018 12:05 pm

Unless you’re shifting one of Rielly or Dermott to the right side or trading one of those two or Jake, there’s no room for Borgman or Rosen. I think it’s highly unlikely that Timmy makes the jump—possible, but unlikely.

If we sign Tavares and trade Kadri then we’d be one injury away from having Ben Smith as third line center. I say keep the center depth and hunt for guys who look like they should be playing more minutes that can be had for a bargain. If we do trade for a right defender then it should be a left D or winger (or both) going out since those are our strengths.

We have scoring depth but outside of goaltending and left defenders we lack organizational depth, especially down the middle. Considering that, I’m wary of moving a bunch of pieces for a big name on the right side. We’re just not where Tampa is in being able to make a big trade for McDonagh or the like. Maybe as early as next year or the year after but not just yet.

Yeah, that’s Cody Franson. He has great underlying numbers—possession,rate offense, zone entries and defense. Franson helps our breakout struggles on the right side if he plays and he has played both special teams in the past. Sure he may have been playing fairly soft minutes but as increased right side depth I think it makes a lot of sense.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #1974 by Philthy Thrillz » Tue May 01, 2018 12:22 pm

AGENT ZERO wrote:
Philthy Thrillz wrote:One of Borgman/Rosen/Lilegren will be on the team next year.

And is the Cody Franson?


Borgman is the only one with a shot for next season, IMO. Rosen was awful for the Marlies, and Timothy is still incredibly raw and young.


Is that your opinion on Rosen? I can't have one since I don't watch Marlies games. I am tho 99% sure I read Keefe saying he's been great if not the best Marlie D before his injury.

I can say that I like him more than Borgman in the Preseason. Great wheels and a great first pass, better than anyone on the big club.

I'm sure Lilegren will spend more time with the Marlies, but he is the most talented young D we have.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #1975 by LeafOfBread » Tue May 01, 2018 12:23 pm

Philthy Thrillz wrote:If we did actually sign JT, the next move should be Kadri + for a real RHD.

No thanks. That would be a top 3 C group.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #1976 by cawbber » Tue May 01, 2018 12:36 pm

Philthy Thrillz wrote:One of Borgman/Rosen/Lilegren will be on the team next year.

And is the Cody Franson?

I feel Liljigren should spend some more time in the AHL. Would not hurt letting him lead the D core down there. He literally just turned 19 this week.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #1977 by AGENT ZERO » Tue May 01, 2018 1:01 pm

Philthy Thrillz wrote:
AGENT ZERO wrote:
Philthy Thrillz wrote:One of Borgman/Rosen/Lilegren will be on the team next year.

And is the Cody Franson?


Borgman is the only one with a shot for next season, IMO. Rosen was awful for the Marlies, and Timothy is still incredibly raw and young.


Is that your opinion on Rosen? I can't have one since I don't watch Marlies games. I am tho 99% sure I read Keefe saying he's been great if not the best Marlie D before his injury.

I can say that I like him more than Borgman in the Preseason. Great wheels and a great first pass, better than anyone on the big club.

I'm sure Lilegren will spend more time with the Marlies, but he is the most talented young D we have.


I dont watch much Marlies hockey either, but it is what I have read all year from Wheeler, Bourne and fans alike. I actually haven't heard anyone say that Rosen was great, much less the Marlies best D, can you link me to that quote if you have it?
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #1978 by Philthy Thrillz » Tue May 01, 2018 1:31 pm

cawbber wrote:
Philthy Thrillz wrote:One of Borgman/Rosen/Lilegren will be on the team next year.

And is the Cody Franson?

I feel Liljigren should spend some more time in the AHL. Would not hurt letting him lead the D core down there. He literally just turned 19 this week.



For sure. Interesting little tid bit, Lilegren set the AHL record for highest ppg for 18 year old D. I think it said he would have landed 8th or 9th among 19 year olds.

I took a quick look, AZ. I'll search for it later.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #1979 by Curry Rage » Tue May 01, 2018 1:45 pm

Thomas Malthus wrote:If we sign Tavares and trade Kadri then we’d be one injury away from having Ben Smith as third line center. I say keep the center depth and hunt for guys who look like they should be playing more minutes that can be had for a bargain. If we do trade for a right defender then it should be a left D or winger (or both) going out since those are our strengths.


We managed with both Kadri and Bozak making 4+ this season. We can manage that for another year until Matthews gets paid. The Cap is now up in the range of the highest spending years of the early oughties. No one needs to panic about $4 million dollars any longer.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #1980 by Thomas Malthus » Tue May 01, 2018 1:48 pm

AGENT ZERO wrote:
Thomas Malthus wrote:Hyman - Matthews - Marner
Johnsson - Tavares - Nylander
Marleau - Kadri - Kapanen
Grundstrom - Lindholm/Aaltonen - Brown
Lindholm/Aaltonen, Leivo

Rielly - Pysyk
Gardiner - Severson
Dermott - Carrick/Franson
Carick/Franson

I'm pretty sure that roster would be cap compliant. I'm like half convinced we could trade Zaitsev for Pysyk. Not exactly sure what it would take for get Severson but it seems like they don't want his contract anymore so I'm guessing not as much as we might think.


I assume the plan is to let Gardiner walk the following year and dump Marleau as well, or is that roster cap compliant in 2020 as well? Also, what are you projecting for Marner? Initially I thought we could get him signed for 8.5M but now some insiders are saying that he could get as much as 9 or 10M.


I did a quick mapping for 2019-2020. I ditched Martin, Hainsey and Zaitsev as above. Signeded Tavares and Matthews to $11M deals. I signed Nylander and Marner to matching $9M deals and Kapanen and Johnsson to matching $2.5M deals. I brought Borgman back on a Carrick like $800k deal. With Horton on LTIR you get a 20 man roster that's like $1.5-2M too expensive with Marleau but without re-signing Jake. If you can save a bit of money on Marner and Nylander then you're fine. If you can move Marleau while doing that then you can bring back Jake if you want (though Dermott needs a new contract in 2020-2021). By that point Tim is third pairing right side.

Maybe Kapanen, Johnsson, or Brown is part of the deal that brings in Severson and that opens things up (then you can insert Leivo and Grundstrom rather than only Grundstrom and save a bit more than a million).

The point is, they could probably find a way to make it work. This abstracts from bonus overages though, so I'm not sure what impact that would have. Maybe you can only afford to have either Severson or Pysyk and not both in a world with bonus penalties.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #1981 by Curry Rage » Tue May 01, 2018 2:32 pm

cawbber wrote:
Philthy Thrillz wrote:One of Borgman/Rosen/Lilegren will be on the team next year.

And is the Cody Franson?

I feel Liljigren should spend some more time in the AHL. Would not hurt letting him lead the D core down there. He literally just turned 19 this week.


Absolutely. He's still a kid. They were lucky to be able to bring him over so early so he could get started learning the NA game right away. Nice and easy does it. They did a nice job prepping Dermott. More of the same, please.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #1982 by AGENT ZERO » Tue May 01, 2018 2:40 pm

Thomas Malthus wrote:
AGENT ZERO wrote:
Thomas Malthus wrote:Hyman - Matthews - Marner
Johnsson - Tavares - Nylander
Marleau - Kadri - Kapanen
Grundstrom - Lindholm/Aaltonen - Brown
Lindholm/Aaltonen, Leivo

Rielly - Pysyk
Gardiner - Severson
Dermott - Carrick/Franson
Carick/Franson

I'm pretty sure that roster would be cap compliant. I'm like half convinced we could trade Zaitsev for Pysyk. Not exactly sure what it would take for get Severson but it seems like they don't want his contract anymore so I'm guessing not as much as we might think.


I assume the plan is to let Gardiner walk the following year and dump Marleau as well, or is that roster cap compliant in 2020 as well? Also, what are you projecting for Marner? Initially I thought we could get him signed for 8.5M but now some insiders are saying that he could get as much as 9 or 10M.


I did a quick mapping for 2019-2020. I ditched Martin, Hainsey and Zaitsev as above. Signeded Tavares and Matthews to $11M deals. I signed Nylander and Marner to matching $9M deals and Kapanen and Johnsson to matching $2.5M deals. I brought Borgman back on a Carrick like $800k deal. With Horton on LTIR you get a 20 man roster that's like $1.5-2M too expensive with Marleau but without re-signing Jake. If you can save a bit of money on Marner and Nylander then you're fine. If you can move Marleau while doing that then you can bring back Jake if you want (though Dermott needs a new contract in 2020-2021). By that point Tim is third pairing right side.

Maybe Kapanen, Johnsson, or Brown is part of the deal that brings in Severson and that opens things up (then you can insert Leivo and Grundstrom rather than only Grundstrom and save a bit more than a million).

The point is, they could probably find a way to make it work. This abstracts from bonus overages though, so I'm not sure what impact that would have. Maybe you can only afford to have either Severson or Pysyk and not both in a world with bonus penalties.


Thanks for breaking that down TM, I think those numbers are pretty close, and demonstrate that this is doable, but it will require some creativity.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #1983 by AGENT ZERO » Tue May 01, 2018 2:42 pm

Curry Rage wrote:
cawbber wrote:
Philthy Thrillz wrote:One of Borgman/Rosen/Lilegren will be on the team next year.

And is the Cody Franson?

I feel Liljigren should spend some more time in the AHL. Would not hurt letting him lead the D core down there. He literally just turned 19 this week.


Absolutely. He's still a kid. They were lucky to be able to bring him over so early so he could get started learning the NA game right away. Nice and easy does it. They did a nice job prepping Dermott. More of the same, please.


If they can add another future top 4D in this draft the future on defense will be set up very well for the next little bit.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #1984 by Philthy Thrillz » Tue May 01, 2018 3:45 pm

Thought it was over on HF I read the quote, you can find it right here, AZ. Prospect thread, 2nd last post.

Funny enough, it was Wheeler that tweeted it.

I really liked Rosen. His skill set will land him in the NHL.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #1985 by Curry Rage » Tue May 01, 2018 4:24 pm

I read something like that too recently, PT. I think I saw it on MLHS, though. I thought Rosen, a bit like Borgman, needed some more reps. He can skate and carry the puck and I think a lot of the mistakes he made passing the puck in preseason had a lot to do with the speed of the game coming at him faster than he was used to. Whether he's sorted any of that out in the AHL or not...I'll leave that to Keefe.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #1986 by Curry Rage » Tue May 01, 2018 5:14 pm

Philthy Thrillz wrote:One of Borgman/Rosen/Lilegren will be on the team next year.

And is the Cody Franson?


Gah. Never go back.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #1987 by Thomas Malthus » Tue May 01, 2018 5:45 pm

Curry Rage wrote:
Philthy Thrillz wrote:One of Borgman/Rosen/Lilegren will be on the team next year.

And is the Cody Franson?


Gah. Never go back.


Would much rather Franson than Polak. We absolutely need someone on the right side with passing ability. Chris Wideman is another guy who looks like he'd be good in a third pairing depth role. These guys are similar to Carrick but again, it's about depth. We don't have anyone really behind Carrick but we have several guys we can call up from the Marlies on the left side. It's pretty slim pickings out there (Redmond and Trotman are guys I liked last year and would be open to trying them out despite them not playing in the NHL this year in Buffalo and Pittsburgh, respectively).

Though, I have to admit that something needs to change tactically, and that makes our defense look worse by some of these metrics. Based on zone exit stats we suck. Even Rielly and Jake aren't great when compared league-wide. Based on some numbers about stretch passes we tried a lot despite being one of the worst teams at completing them this season. The coaching staff needs to address this because it's systems related and it's really hurting the team. That said, the guys we have on the right side can't pass and changing the system isn't going to change that.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #1988 by AGENT ZERO » Tue May 01, 2018 7:54 pm

I will lose alot of confidence in alot of people if Polak is brought back. I would hapily welcome Franson back, although I do wonder if there are character issues there because no one picked him up off waivers last year, and he made pennies at a position of need for most of the NHL.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #1989 by Philthy Thrillz » Tue May 01, 2018 8:59 pm

Curry Rage wrote:I read something like that too recently, PT. I think I saw it on MLHS, though. I thought Rosen, a bit like Borgman, needed some more reps. He can skate and carry the puck and I think a lot of the mistakes he made passing the puck in preseason had a lot to do with the speed of the game coming at him faster than he was used to. Whether he's sorted any of that out in the AHL or not...I'll leave that to Keefe.


I'm pulling for him. If he's progressing like Keefe has suggested, he's the kind of tape to tape passer the Leafs need.

Maybe Mosse could chim in with his two cents? Please, k thanks.

Franson is way too slow for this club. Easy pass here.

We are terrible at the stretch pass/breakout, eh TM. It's hard for me to objectively realize in game just how bad they are. But after watching other series, its just fucking terrible.

I do think it's a combination of D and the system. It's kind of humorous that Wilson was the antichrist for his blow the zone system and Babs is infallible.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #1990 by Curry Rage » Wed May 02, 2018 3:25 am

Hmm...something's fishy about all this "we can't move the puck or break out or make stretch passes" stuff. For starters, a lot of our stretch passes were for tip-ins. They patently weren't designed to be controlled. We discussed this earlier in the year. I'd like to see how these stats were kept. Moreover, dealing in percentages purely on this stuff wouldn't make much sense because if a team attempts 10 passes and makes 8 of them they'd have a higher percentage of completions than a team who attempted 100 and completed 50 of them. But the team completing 50 of those passes is going to gain the offensive opportunity created by them 6x more. The other thing that stands out to me is that only one team scored more goals than us. We must be doing something right moving the puck up the ice. I know it's "shit all over everything because we lost a playoff series" time, but this team earned 105 points.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #1991 by Curry Rage » Wed May 02, 2018 3:32 am

Oh, and fuck Franson. You guys done lost your fucking minds.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #1992 by Curry Rage » Wed May 02, 2018 3:55 am

Franson has floated around the league, frustrating fan bases and coaching staffs alike. Your memories are too short. He spent more time in the AHL than in the NHL this year while CHI chose to play guys like Oesterle, Ruuta and Forsling ahead of him because he's fucking slow.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #1993 by Honus Joglund » Wed May 02, 2018 6:54 am

I doubt Franson ever plays another game in the NHL. Chicago had the 28th PP in the league and their right side was a mess even before Brent Seabrook's collapse. If Franson can't make this team, what team is he supposed to make?
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #1994 by paulster » Wed May 02, 2018 8:37 am

First of all, I thought we had a good team. What's this talk of Cody Fucking Franson returning to... MAKE US BETTER??!!

:rudy:

Second of all, you know its the off season when Cody Franson is dominating the fan speculation banter. Didn't know we'd peak so soon though.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #1995 by Thomas Malthus » Wed May 02, 2018 10:37 am

Curry Rage wrote:Hmm...something's fishy about all this "we can't move the puck or break out or make stretch passes" stuff. For starters, a lot of our stretch passes were for tip-ins. They patently weren't designed to be controlled.

If you're designing stretch passes for the tip then there are two outcomes. 1) You miss the deflection and ice the puck (which is not good) and 2) You get an uncontrolled zone entry which is much worse than a controlled entry but better than nothing. I don't see why we should be applauding the employment of tactics where you're throwing away opportunities for premium offensive chances. More concerning is the icings, of which we had many, that exacerbate the problems of a weak defensive team, especially one where the data suggests they struggle off of defensive zone faceoffs. Those tip in often just forfeit possession and because the team was so much less aggressive on the forecheck this year the puck was right back down in our end. For a team that is shit at defense we sure seem to like palying in our own end a lot.

We discussed this earlier in the year. I'd like to see how these stats were kept.

This is a fair point.

Moreover, dealing in percentages purely on this stuff wouldn't make much sense because if a team attempts 10 passes and makes 8 of them they'd have a higher percentage of completions than a team who attempted 100 and completed 50 of them. But the team completing 50 of those passes is going to gain the offensive opportunity created by them 6x more.

I agree that it can be misleading and I'm fairly certain that the source of those numbers indicated that the result was the same for rate versions of the stats. The thing to note for me here is that, especially for a skilled team, the opportunity cost of a stretch pass is quite high. To take your example, the team that generated 6 times fewer offensive opportunities from stretch passes could have generated much more offense than the stretch pass team through controlled entries since the per entry offensive generation is much higher when entering with control. I have a hard time believing that this team couldn't generate entries with control more often without using the stretch pass since the risk of icing is much lower and worst case they simply chip it in for an uncontrolled entry which was the most common outcome of the stretch pass anyways. So even if the percentage stats are misleading in the sense that you have a small sample size for some teams, the context of attempting so many while executing them poorly is a huge red flag.

The other thing that stands out to me is that only one team scored more goals than us. We must be doing something right moving the puck up the ice. I know it's "shit all over everything because we lost a playoff series" time, but this team earned 105 points.


Or it could mean that we have a lot of finishing talent (we do) and are scoring in spite of our transition problems. When you have Dermott/Borgman (neither are bad puck movers), Gardiner, and Rielly who are the primary puck movers on your pairings and who have terrible breakout numbers, I don't see how you can say that you have a strong transition game or think that things are even remotely okay. Those guys should be crushing it, they are exceptionally capable puck movers.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #1996 by paulster » Wed May 02, 2018 11:00 am

Thomas needs to apply for the newly-created GM opening.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #1997 by Curry Rage » Wed May 02, 2018 11:11 am

Thomas Malthus wrote:
Curry Rage wrote:Hmm...something's fishy about all this "we can't move the puck or break out or make stretch passes" stuff. For starters, a lot of our stretch passes were for tip-ins. They patently weren't designed to be controlled.

If you're designing stretch passes for the tip then there are two outcomes. 1) You miss the deflection and ice the puck (which is not good) and 2) You get an uncontrolled zone entry which is much worse than a controlled entry but better than nothing. I don't see why we should be applauding the employment of tactics where you're throwing away opportunities for premium offensive chances.


I'm not seeing the evidence that we are throwing away opportunities. We were 4th in SA and scored more goals than everyone but TBL without having a super high team shooting percentage. The strategy plays entirely to one of our greatest strengths: speed. It forces their defense to give up the neutral zone and then also have to get in a footrace to get the puck, which also forces their forwards back to support because otherwise we're overloading on their puck carrier and forcing them to make long passes out of traffic.

More concerning is the icings, of which we had many, that exacerbate the problems of a weak defensive team, especially one where the data suggests they struggle off of defensive zone faceoffs. Those tip in often just forfeit possession and because the team was so much less aggressive on the forecheck this year the puck was right back down in our end. For a team that is shit at defense we sure seem to like palying in our own end a lot.


Then you improve what you do in your own end.

To take your example, the team that generated 6 times fewer offensive opportunities from stretch passes could have generated much more offense than the stretch pass team through controlled entries since the per entry offensive generation is much higher when entering with control.


Except perhaps it doesn't matter. Plus, in reality they didn't. All those controlled entry teams score less than us. We scored the 2nd most goals in the league using the strategy of isolating single defenders in footraces and overloading their exit options. Getting the puck up ice and scoring really isn't our problem.

Or it could mean that we have a lot of finishing talent (we do) and are scoring in spite of our transition problems.


We were in the top shooting percentage teams in the league but basically tied with a bunch of other teams. Nothing out of the ordinary.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #1998 by Thomas Malthus » Wed May 02, 2018 12:43 pm

C'mon Rage, we both know that the question is really about the counterfactual world where we're comparing a stretch pass oriented Leafs offense to a short pass oriented Leafs offense. We have one of the most talented forward groups in the league, of course they are going to score a lot. Using that as evidence is begging the question.

Moving up the ice as a unit plays to our strengths too, both the speed and talent of the team. Nylander and Marner can carve through the neutral zone and it looks like Kapanen can too. Our less fleet of foot or agile players like Kadri and Matthews can make plays or protect the puck well enough to transition through the ice. This kind of transition up the ice builds speed too and because of the speed defenders still have to respect the possibility of our forwards getting in behind them which opens up ice for plays.

As for improving in your own end, I couldn't agree more. There appears to be some tactical decisions that need revised in our own zone too. One way to make playing in your own zone easier is to not ice the puck so much. Another is to not let the other team have the puck, especially in situations where they can build speed in transition. Cutting back on stretch passes and stretch tips do both of those things.

I mean, even abstracting from the numbers, I really don't understand how you can watch this team all year and think, "Nothing wrong with this team's ability to move the puck up the ice".
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #1999 by Philthy Thrillz » Fri May 04, 2018 7:59 am

I'd like to see them attack more as a unit. Rielly, Gardiner, and Dermott are great skaters. They should be joining the rush or leading it up the ice. I hate watching Gardiner standing there and pitching grenades when he could be using his greatest strength to gain forward momentum.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #2000 by Thomas Malthus » Fri May 04, 2018 9:21 am

Dellow has a piece up in the Athletic looking at league wide icing trends.

He notes that tactics are hard to pin down because there are incentives to not reveal tactical changes. He wanted to look at this after his finding of the Leafs sucking after faceoffs, especially defensive zone faceoffs and in light of everyone talking about the Leafs' defense.

He starts with some simple graphs showing that the Leafs iced the puck second most this season, behind only Dallas, and that they say the largest increase in icings from the year before (though even if their icing rate hadn't changed they still would have been around or slightly above league average in icings. The increase was about one additional icing per game and they iced the puck nearly 7 times a game in 2017-2018. He then points out that Babs' teams haven't historically iced the puck all that much and since the roster didn't change between last year and this year all that much perhaps tactics are involved.

He breaks things down into shift types based on faceoff location and outcomes the way he normally does and points out (like in the piece comparing Leafs to Bruins) that for on the fly shifts (that don't begin in a faceoff) the Leafs are pretty, pretty good. So do they ice the puck a lot in certain situations? He finds some trends league-wide with defensive zone faceoffs but that the Leafs are particularly bad after wins (40% higher than league average) and that they are also icing the puck more for on the fly shifts and neutral zone loses (also 40% higher) and wins (20% higher).

He points out that this year of many icings coincided with Babs' poorest corsi results after faceoff wins going back to 2010-2011. But he thinks that the icings are a sign that something is wrong rather than being the reason that those numbers are so bad. He doesn't really provide much evidence as to why he believes that but based on how the article was setup I suspect that he means the tactics following these set plays, which he dug into previously.
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