ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #1351 by Philthy Thrillz » Sat Feb 10, 2018 2:24 pm

I like his honesty, but his words really take away the hard work the other players put in that he demands.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #1352 by AGENT ZERO » Sat Feb 10, 2018 2:25 pm

I hope we don't give up another 2nd rounder for a 4th line rental C. We can fill that hole with Komarov, plus the real problem is 3C and on D. Adding a Vermette barely moves the needle.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #1353 by Philthy Thrillz » Sat Feb 10, 2018 2:32 pm

Mirtle confirms Sosh has been extended.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #1354 by mooseOAK » Sat Feb 10, 2018 3:30 pm

AGENT ZERO wrote:I hope we don't give up another 2nd rounder for a 4th line rental C. We can fill that hole with Komarov, plus the real problem is 3C and on D. Adding a Vermette barely moves the needle.

Vermette would be an excellent 4th line centre and insurance against injuries. Komarov is neither.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #1355 by Whit Dickman » Sat Feb 10, 2018 4:54 pm

MonkeyWrench wrote:I'm assuming he'd be part of a package for a depth forward/dman. For Vermette maybe like Sosh + a 2nd.

This is a decent idea
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #1356 by clawfirst » Sat Feb 10, 2018 5:33 pm

Jvr and 2018 first plus waiver guy they want for patch of spaghetti from les habs
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #1357 by clawfirst » Sat Feb 10, 2018 5:36 pm

This was a fun deal i heard on the radio
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #1358 by clawfirst » Sat Feb 10, 2018 5:37 pm

I dont think we will do much. A 3rd or 4th line upgrade via creative deck chair shuffle
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #1359 by WTF » Sat Feb 10, 2018 6:08 pm

Maybe dump a few contracts/spare parts for some breathing room (a la the Grabner deal from a few years back).
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #1360 by vf » Sat Feb 10, 2018 7:07 pm

Philthy Thrillz wrote:I like his honesty, but his words really take away the hard work the other players put in that he demands.


The Leafs minus Matthews is still deep in rebuild mode.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #1361 by Philthy Thrillz » Sat Feb 10, 2018 7:36 pm

I understand how good he is.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #1362 by AGENT ZERO » Sun Feb 11, 2018 12:05 am

mooseOAK wrote:
AGENT ZERO wrote:I hope we don't give up another 2nd rounder for a 4th line rental C. We can fill that hole with Komarov, plus the real problem is 3C and on D. Adding a Vermette barely moves the needle.

Vermette would be an excellent 4th line centre and insurance against injuries. Komarov is neither.


If a top 3 center goes down, it will be Marleau or Nylander that shift over. If Vermette is the guy taking those minutes we are fucked. Aaltonen has been on fire in the AHL the past month, I would rather give him an opportunity for free than give up assets for a soon to be 36 year old who is probably not a viable option beyond this season.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #1363 by LeafOfBread » Sun Feb 11, 2018 2:10 am

The Maple Leafs rank 29th in transition plays by defencemen, 31st in completed offensive zone passes, 29th in offensive zone loose puck recoveries, 28th in completed neutral zone passes, and 31st in completed outlet passes.

The outlet pass issue is a big one, as that’s the main way teams organize zone exits in the NHL, however it seems to be a systemic choice, because while 31st in completed outlet passes, the Leafs are second in completed stretch passes. What’s odd is that they also have the worst stretch pass completion rate in the NHL, so they’re attempting those at an absurd rate. It’s an odd, risky choice.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #1364 by Curry Rage » Sun Feb 11, 2018 5:23 am

clawfirst wrote:I dont think we will do much. A 3rd or 4th line upgrade via creative deck chair shuffle


That's my impression too, but this management group plays everything so tight to their vests it's hard to guess. Disappointing that Moore didn't really turn out. I figured we'd already made our "smart, responsible, vet C for the playoffs" move for the year. Boyle didn't entirely fit our system with his lack of speed but he ended up being a real plus for us last year.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #1365 by Curry Rage » Sun Feb 11, 2018 5:33 am

LeafOfBread wrote:
The Maple Leafs rank 29th in transition plays by defencemen, 31st in completed offensive zone passes, 29th in offensive zone loose puck recoveries, 28th in completed neutral zone passes, and 31st in completed outlet passes.

The outlet pass issue is a big one, as that’s the main way teams organize zone exits in the NHL, however it seems to be a systemic choice, because while 31st in completed outlet passes, the Leafs are second in completed stretch passes. What’s odd is that they also have the worst stretch pass completion rate in the NHL, so they’re attempting those at an absurd rate. It’s an odd, risky choice.


Where's that from? Interesting. I guess the thing that strikes me is that despite not completing passes in the offensive zone - or anywhere really - we've scored the 3rd most goals in the league, and it's not like we're riding some crazy shooting percentage bubble. Given those numbers, you'd assume we wouldn't have the puck enough to score at the rate we do - following the usual narrative of possession = offense, that is. There's a big piece of the puzzle missing.

One thing I notice is that we seem to be trying to take advantage of our speed and force teams to bring the puck 200' by getting the puck out of our zone and down the ice as fast as possible, creating foot races all over the ice. Our breakout strategy essentially uses the entire area from our end to the far blue line as a single zone. Quick stretch pass to a winger waiting to tip it all the way down into the opponent's zone and guys coming with speed to retrieve and pressure. Or multiple shoot-and-tip options up the wall, getting one zone at a time. That's going to make your own-zone completed passes look shitty, your neutral zone passes look shitty, your stretch pass completion rate look shitty, etc.

And it's not that risky if you have guys in the right positions to defend if the pass doesn't work and you trust your team's ability to win D-zone faceoffs after the inevitable icings.

Either way, it's curious. I'd love a candid chat with Babs sometime.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #1366 by Curry Rage » Sun Feb 11, 2018 6:32 am

BTW, I'll just add that it's not a given that the goal of the game is simply to have the puck. That's a supposition made by people collecting stats during an era when that was self-consciously the goal of the game. What if we start from the supposition that the goal of the game is to create as many high danger scoring chances as possible and to eliminate them against? Suddenly, some of the ways in which the online stats community currently tend to think - and the measures they think are important - go right out the window. *Finally* figuring out that not all shots are created equally was a big step forward for them, but have they actually taken that finding to its logical extensions? Assuming that, it stands to reason that holding the puck and passing it around isn't as important as getting it to areas where it's easier to score as many times as possible. So, perhaps you continually run the same sorts of plays knowing a certain percentage are going to get broken up but that when they do work you make your hay. Maybe keep throwing the long bomb and force teams to back up to compensate, which then leaves them with fewer guys in your zone to pressure you and/or make plays. Maybe not. But, it's an interesting thought experiment.
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Re: RE: Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #1367 by Zardoz » Sun Feb 11, 2018 7:14 am

Curry Rage wrote:BTW, I'll just add that it's not a given that the goal of the game is simply to have the puck. That's a supposition made by people collecting stats during an era when that was self-consciously the goal of the game. What if we start from the supposition that the goal of the game is to create as many high danger scoring chances as possible and to eliminate them against? Suddenly, some of the ways in which the online stats community currently tend to think - and the measures they think are important - go right out the window. *Finally* figuring out that not all shots are created equally was a big step forward for them, but have they actually taken that finding to its logical extensions? Assuming that, it stands to reason that holding the puck and passing it around isn't as important as getting it to areas where it's easier to score as many times as possible. So, perhaps you continually run the same sorts of plays knowing a certain percentage are going to get broken up but that when they do work you make your hay. Maybe keep throwing the long bomb and force teams to back up to compensate, which then leaves them with fewer guys in your zone to pressure you and/or make plays. Maybe not. But, it's an interesting thought experiment.
This pretty much sums up what I see out of Babs. Leafs are probably right up there in high danger shots. Also thought it was pretty obvious about the stretch passes. I mean, we ice the puck at an absurd rate, but part of that is keeping pressure on the neutral zone and limiting opposition defence from jumping up (because they'll get burned or caught if there's a turnover). That also means opposition D are taking a lot of outside low quality shots at Freddy.

And honestly, icing is such a non issue 95% of the time. I mean, yeah, once and a while a line has been out there too long, but most of the time it's not a tired line, or they stall, or they 50/50 win the draw and get off. The payoff of setting the pace to their blueline is way higher than the d-zone faceoff.
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Re: RE: Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #1368 by Curry Rage » Sun Feb 11, 2018 7:28 am

Zardoz wrote:[This pretty much sums up what I see out of Babs. Leafs are probably right up there in high danger shots. Also thought it was pretty obvious about the stretch passes. I mean, we ice the puck at an absurd rate, but part of that is keeping pressure on the neutral zone and limiting opposition defence from jumping up (because they'll get burned or caught if there's a turnover). That also means opposition D are taking a lot of outside low quality shots at Freddy.

And honestly, icing is such a non issue 95% of the time. I mean, yeah, once and a while a line has been out there too long, but most of the time it's not a tired line, or they stall, or they 50/50 win the draw and get off. The payoff of setting the pace to their blueline is way higher than the d-zone faceoff.


We're second in the league in the number of high danger chances for and 22nd against: https://www.naturalstattrick.com/teamtable.php. I seem to remember Freddie had super high danger sv% stats going back to ANA, so that helps mitigate some of the chances against, but obviously we'd all like our D corps to be a bit better. Under Babs, this team has consistently been much better on faceoffs so Babs doesn't have to worry about an icing now and again.

I also thought the stretch pass thing was kind of obvious. A lot of teams' strategy is to swarm and overload the puck in the O-zone. They won't want to do that if every time the puck squirts free you're firing a pass 100' or chipping it behind them and you've got guys who can beat their D in footraces. It explains *some* of Babs' lineup decisions too - i.e. Kapanen over Leivo.

Perhaps "play fast" doesn't just mean skating fast, but having the puck moving quickly - i.e. *tipping* it to dangerous areas that force the defense to turn and adapt plus make fast - and therefore shittier - decisions under pressure. In the offensive zone, you don't pass it around endlessly, you get it into the zone fast, get it to the net as fast as possible and create "controlled chaos" forcing the defense out of shape. Keep banging away and sooner or later your chances will come. Hit it and quit it!
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #1369 by Curry Rage » Sun Feb 11, 2018 8:04 am

I'm yammering on here today, but as much as I'd love to corner Babs for a candid discussion of what he's doing, it might be equally enlightening to hear the perspective of top flight opposition coaches. What would Hitch or Q have to say about what we're doing?
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #1370 by stoney » Sun Feb 11, 2018 8:46 am

Curry Rage wrote:I'm yammering on here today, but as much as I'd love to corner Babs for a candid discussion of what he's doing, it might be equally enlightening to hear the perspective of top flight opposition coaches. What would Hitch or Q have to say about what we're doing?


I would even just want to watch a few practices to see what they work on for zone exits. I've been harping on it for a while. We are rolling the dice with chips up the boards at least 50% of the time.

I guess, if the intent is to keep the opposition D from a pinch situation, it will work.

When I watched Nashville support with 5 players in all three zones and march the puck up the ice, I was envious.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #1371 by Curry Rage » Sun Feb 11, 2018 9:21 am

stoney wrote:
Curry Rage wrote:I'm yammering on here today, but as much as I'd love to corner Babs for a candid discussion of what he's doing, it might be equally enlightening to hear the perspective of top flight opposition coaches. What would Hitch or Q have to say about what we're doing?


I would even just want to watch a few practices to see what they work on for zone exits. I've been harping on it for a while. We are rolling the dice with chips up the boards at least 50% of the time.

I guess, if the intent is to keep the opposition D from a pinch situation, it will work.

When I watched Nashville support with 5 players in all three zones and march the puck up the ice, I was envious.


And here I didn't feel like NSH really dominated that game. We had PK running around all night. FWIW, high danger chances ended up 15-12 in their favour in that game.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #1372 by stoney » Sun Feb 11, 2018 9:42 am

Curry Rage wrote:
stoney wrote:
Curry Rage wrote:I'm yammering on here today, but as much as I'd love to corner Babs for a candid discussion of what he's doing, it might be equally enlightening to hear the perspective of top flight opposition coaches. What would Hitch or Q have to say about what we're doing?


I would even just want to watch a few practices to see what they work on for zone exits. I've been harping on it for a while. We are rolling the dice with chips up the boards at least 50% of the time.

I guess, if the intent is to keep the opposition D from a pinch situation, it will work.

When I watched Nashville support with 5 players in all three zones and march the puck up the ice, I was envious.


And here I didn't feel like NSH really dominated that game. We had PK running around all night. FWIW, high danger chances ended up 15-12 in their favour in that game.


The game wasn't as tilted as the reporting claimed. But they did look like the better team, while missing their #1 C. Having better zone exits doesn't mean they dominated start to finish, but they were leaving their zone under control consistently.

We still took 2 points.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #1373 by MonkeyWrench » Sun Feb 11, 2018 9:45 am

It's an interesting discussion.
I definitely feel as though the leafs held their own for 2/3 of that nashville game, but other 1/3 was fairly tough to watch.
Having the thought of the stretch pass in the head of the opposition defense and maybe 1 other forward, forces them to be further up the ice as insurance. A common play for Babs, aswell as the NHL, is when chipping the puck from D to FWD from behind the net to the half-wall, that FWD doesn't really have the intention of bringing the puck out himself or making a stretch pass. Since 1 or 2 of the opposition players have backed off protecting against the stretch, in theory, it clears some of the traffic so that when that FWD bumps it back to the D that just chipped it over to him, or to the middle of the ice for another FWD for an attempt at a successful clear/outlet.

Now...much of this process is fairly chaotic. But thankfully alot of our roster is aware of how this works, our D rarely over commit or cheats offensively, and also has good sticks.
I've also started to think, and don't necessarily like, that Babock is purposefully inducing that chaotic nature of no puck possession for a breakout. Why? Because the speed and IQ of some of these players can take advantage of that uncertainty and poke holes.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #1374 by Curry Rage » Sun Feb 11, 2018 10:42 am

Total tangent, but I see the HNIC guys were talking about us having interest in Maroon. I can't figure out why. Perhaps he replaces JVR for the playoffs and allows us to move JVR to one of the two teams said to be interested in him? Recoup a couple of picks and have a big body to plant in front of the net on the PP? Otherwise, other than being an upgrade on Martin for the 4th line if Babs wanted to dress a "big" lineup, I can't see where he'd fit.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #1375 by MonkeyWrench » Sun Feb 11, 2018 11:16 am

Leo would have to move to center and I don't foresee Babcock doing that unless it was a considerable upgrade.
I haven't seen Maroon play in a coon's age, so I can't say.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #1376 by Curry Rage » Sun Feb 11, 2018 11:23 am

MonkeyWrench wrote:Leo would have to move to center and I don't foresee Babcock doing that unless it was a considerable upgrade.
I haven't seen Maroon play in a coon's age, so I can't say.


Or Leo could play the other wing. He's done that a bit this year.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #1377 by MonkeyWrench » Sun Feb 11, 2018 1:00 pm

Curry Rage wrote:
MonkeyWrench wrote:Leo would have to move to center and I don't foresee Babcock doing that unless it was a considerable upgrade.
I haven't seen Maroon play in a coon's age, so I can't say.


Or Leo could play the other wing. He's done that a bit this year.


Yea he's had time at all fwd slots, but Kapy/Brown aren't losing their spots.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #1378 by Philthy Thrillz » Sun Feb 11, 2018 5:37 pm

Just like to point out that the top 3 teams in the Atlantic have accumulated more points than any of the other divisions top 3.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #1379 by AGENT ZERO » Sun Feb 11, 2018 6:02 pm

Soshnikov's extended conditioning stint ends tonight meaning the Leafs will either have to trade a player off of the 23 man roster or waive someone by tomorrow. Here's hoping it is Polak/Martin that are waived, I doubt either would be claimed.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #1380 by Philthy Thrillz » Sun Feb 11, 2018 6:11 pm

Polak might be. A team with alot of D injures may need a cheap free depth move. No chance for Martin.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #1381 by AGENT ZERO » Sun Feb 11, 2018 6:43 pm

Philthy Thrillz wrote:Polak might be. A team with alot of D injures may need a cheap free depth move. No chance for Martin.


It would be a dream if another team claimed Polak.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #1382 by Philthy Thrillz » Sun Feb 11, 2018 7:24 pm

AGENT ZERO wrote:
Philthy Thrillz wrote:Polak might be. A team with alot of D injures may need a cheap free depth move. No chance for Martin.


It would be a dream if another team claimed Polak.


It would be a big statement if either were waived, signifying they feel the kids are ready. This was the plan. Huge confidence boost for Dermott or Kappanen.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #1383 by Philthy Thrillz » Sun Feb 11, 2018 7:27 pm

Is there a list of the number of contracts each team is at. Cimbined that with teams in the playoff hunt and their injuries. And you'd get potential suitors.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #1384 by Curry Rage » Sun Feb 11, 2018 7:37 pm

AGENT ZERO wrote:Soshnikov's extended conditioning stint ends tonight meaning the Leafs will either have to trade a player off of the 23 man roster or waive someone by tomorrow. Here's hoping it is Polak/Martin that are waived, I doubt either would be claimed.

Or send Dermott down until they clear space at the deadline.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #1385 by AGENT ZERO » Sun Feb 11, 2018 8:44 pm

Philthy Thrillz wrote:
AGENT ZERO wrote:
Philthy Thrillz wrote:Polak might be. A team with alot of D injures may need a cheap free depth move. No chance for Martin.


It would be a dream if another team claimed Polak.


It would be a big statement if either were waived, signifying they feel the kids are ready. This was the plan. Huge confidence boost for Dermott or Kappanen.


Agreed
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #1386 by MonkeyWrench » Sun Feb 11, 2018 9:16 pm

Philthy Thrillz wrote:Is there a list of the number of contracts each team is at. Cimbined that with teams in the playoff hunt and their injuries. And you'd get potential suitors.


Capfriendly main page.
Arizona and Toronto at 50 max.
Florida and Dallas with the least with 41.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #1387 by Zardoz » Sun Feb 11, 2018 11:11 pm

It would be hilarious if we waived Polak and Boston or Tampa claimed him.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #1388 by Dynrehab » Sun Feb 11, 2018 11:39 pm

Zardoz wrote:It would be hilarious if we waived Polak and Boston or Tampa claimed him.


It would be funnier if the Sharks paid 2-2nds for him.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #1389 by LeafOfBread » Mon Feb 12, 2018 10:17 am

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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #1390 by LeafOfBread » Mon Feb 12, 2018 10:19 am

Curry Rage wrote:
LeafOfBread wrote:
The Maple Leafs rank 29th in transition plays by defencemen, 31st in completed offensive zone passes, 29th in offensive zone loose puck recoveries, 28th in completed neutral zone passes, and 31st in completed outlet passes.

The outlet pass issue is a big one, as that’s the main way teams organize zone exits in the NHL, however it seems to be a systemic choice, because while 31st in completed outlet passes, the Leafs are second in completed stretch passes. What’s odd is that they also have the worst stretch pass completion rate in the NHL, so they’re attempting those at an absurd rate. It’s an odd, risky choice.


Where's that from? Interesting. .


https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/erik-gudbranson-wont-solve-maple-leafs-problems-defence/

I believe the stats are from Sportlogiq, they have a deal in place with the NHL and started collecting these stats about a year ago. Unfortunately there appears to be no public access to them; the only time I've seen them is in Sportsnet articles otherwise I imagine the stats are mostly internally used by teams.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #1391 by MonkeyWrench » Mon Feb 12, 2018 10:31 am

All this talk about the options.
Do we trade a roster player?
Do we send down Kapanen/Dermott?
Do we waive Bab's pet donkey/martin/Carrick?

How about we just waive Sosh?
I'd understand the hesitation if he was playing well prior to getting injured, but he's been 'meh' for a while. Good tools.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #1392 by Curry Rage » Mon Feb 12, 2018 10:38 am

MonkeyWrench wrote:All this talk about the options.
Do we trade a roster player?
Do we send down Kapanen/Dermott?
Do we waive Bab's pet donkey/martin/Carrick?

How about we just waive Sosh?
I'd understand the hesitation if he was playing well prior to getting injured, but he's been 'meh' for a while. Good tools.


He or Leivo is more likely to be waived than the guys who've been playing regularly most of the year.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #1393 by stoney » Mon Feb 12, 2018 10:39 am

Waive Sosh. If someone grabs him, best of luck.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #1394 by clawfirst » Mon Feb 12, 2018 10:40 am

Ya but if they dont play some make believe how else will AZ be outraged when Martin plays out his entire contract as a Leaf?
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #1395 by clawfirst » Mon Feb 12, 2018 10:42 am

Its got to be sosh unless its a trade. Then the boss man can say "we really like you and extended your rehab stint to give us and you time to show other clubs what you are..."
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #1396 by mooseOAK » Mon Feb 12, 2018 10:43 am

Send Dermott down until the trade deadline. No harm will be done.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #1397 by Curry Rage » Mon Feb 12, 2018 10:48 am

But...but...but...how will we live another 2 weeks/6 games without him?
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #1398 by mooseOAK » Mon Feb 12, 2018 10:48 am

LeafOfBread wrote:
The Maple Leafs rank 29th in transition plays by defencemen, 31st in completed offensive zone passes, 29th in offensive zone loose puck recoveries, 28th in completed neutral zone passes, and 31st in completed outlet passes.

The outlet pass issue is a big one, as that’s the main way teams organize zone exits in the NHL, however it seems to be a systemic choice, because while 31st in completed outlet passes, the Leafs are second in completed stretch passes. What’s odd is that they also have the worst stretch pass completion rate in the NHL, so they’re attempting those at an absurd rate. It’s an odd, risky choice.

Many stretch passes aren’t even designed to be completed, just tipped into the offensive zone.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #1399 by Curry Rage » Mon Feb 12, 2018 10:50 am

So we've been saying. That's a play PIT has been using a lot since Sullivan took over as well.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #1400 by Philthy Thrillz » Mon Feb 12, 2018 12:04 pm

Sosh put on the IR?

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