ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #801 by Thomas Malthus » Thu Dec 14, 2017 1:08 pm

That Dom guy has a nice piece at the Athletic breaking down the difference in TOI since that awful road trip that precipitated the Leafs' change of play. Leo is up like 1.5 minutes a game while Nylander is down 2 minutes a game. Brown is up huge too.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #802 by LeafOfBread » Thu Dec 14, 2017 2:51 pm

Thomas Malthus wrote:That Dom guy has a nice piece at the Athletic breaking down the difference in TOI since that awful road trip that precipitated the Leafs' change of play. Leo is up like 1.5 minutes a game while Nylander is down 2 minutes a game. Brown is up huge too.

I find that Babcock seems to be chasing the match-ups when really he should be dictating them instead. Seems counterproductive
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #803 by stoney » Thu Dec 14, 2017 2:58 pm

Thomas Malthus wrote:That Dom guy has a nice piece at the Athletic breaking down the difference in TOI since that awful road trip that precipitated the Leafs' change of play. Leo is up like 1.5 minutes a game while Nylander is down 2 minutes a game. Brown is up huge too.


The team is winning, so it's hard to really question it.

However, Komarov plays a game that doesn't leave him in many positions to do wrong, but also very few to do right on the score sheet. Babs leans on these guys because he "doesn't have to worry about them". Same as Zaitsev. He's on record saying he plays 22 minutes and you don't notice him.

If I am making the lines. Leo is on the 4th line and wins some shifts over Brown/Leivo/Nylander on the 3rd line in a tight game we are winning.

I would be curious to see behind closed doors. Is Babcock (or assistants) working with Nylander or are they leaving him in the cold? His game seems consistent to me, but his minutes do not.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #804 by stoney » Thu Dec 14, 2017 2:59 pm

LeafOfBread wrote:
Thomas Malthus wrote:That Dom guy has a nice piece at the Athletic breaking down the difference in TOI since that awful road trip that precipitated the Leafs' change of play. Leo is up like 1.5 minutes a game while Nylander is down 2 minutes a game. Brown is up huge too.

I find that Babcock seems to be chasing the match-ups when really he should be dictating them instead. Seems counterproductive


Well. Playing an entire month on the road will do that
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #805 by LeafOfBread » Thu Dec 14, 2017 3:14 pm

stoney wrote:
LeafOfBread wrote:
Thomas Malthus wrote:That Dom guy has a nice piece at the Athletic breaking down the difference in TOI since that awful road trip that precipitated the Leafs' change of play. Leo is up like 1.5 minutes a game while Nylander is down 2 minutes a game. Brown is up huge too.

I find that Babcock seems to be chasing the match-ups when really he should be dictating them instead. Seems counterproductive


Well. Playing an entire month on the road will do that

That's kinda my point though. With the obsession around combating match-ups guys like Komarov are playing way more than they need to be. Put Willy on the top line and if the other team wants to try and shut him down then let them try, Nylander and Matthews together dominate the ice.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #806 by Curry Rage » Thu Dec 14, 2017 4:22 pm

It's a little harder to just roll lines when you know Auston isn't 100% or isn't on the roster. He has to be a lot more careful.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #807 by Philthy Thrillz » Thu Dec 14, 2017 4:40 pm

The grinders buy in to the system easier than the fancy puck carriers. Babcock is paritcular and putting alot more pressure on Marner and Nylander to play the Babs way. I think thats why Marner didn't look great at the beginning but now is adjusting and is find his way. Nylander not so much. He made a couple cross ice passes that turned into bad giveaways last game where the safe/right play was to get it in deep. He will learn, just like Kadri did.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #808 by Zardoz » Thu Dec 14, 2017 5:01 pm

Yeah, that attempted backhand pass just inside the offensive blue line at one point was fucking awful (and was obviously intercepted). Willy is better than that. It was very young Kadri like.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #809 by Thomas Malthus » Sat Dec 16, 2017 12:21 pm

Dellow has a nice piece over at the Athletic where he has a look at some of the Leafs' possession struggles. In particular they are terrible after defensive zone faceoffs and he has some clips from the Wild game showing just how awful our puck management is.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #810 by Philthy Thrillz » Sat Dec 16, 2017 7:39 pm

Thomas Malthus wrote:Dellow has a nice piece over at the Athletic where he has a look at some of the Leafs' possession struggles. In particular they are terrible after defensive zone faceoffs and he has some clips from the Wild game showing just how awful our puck management is.


Thats what Babcock is trying to instill into this team. The team needs to learn how to grind and cycle along the boards. I can't remember the last time the Leafs had a good cycle. 15 years ago?
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #811 by Curry Rage » Sun Dec 17, 2017 4:51 am

Mats was a one man cycle even with the rules allowing guys to water ski. Gary never met a corner he didn't like. I bet Wade Redden still has nightmares.

As for this year's team, I felt like we did a better job of maintaining possession in the O-zone last year. In the D-zone, Babs seems to have taken away the option up the middle, which was how we were avoiding a lot of forechecking pressure. We tend to push the puck up the wall to a guy with no close support leaving him the option of trying to relay it up the wall to the other winger who has crossed over in the neutral zone.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #812 by Philthy Thrillz » Sun Dec 17, 2017 7:35 am

I miss those two men.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #813 by AGENT ZERO » Sun Dec 17, 2017 10:42 am

Lower offensive zone time is to be expected when you reduce controlled entries and increase dump and chase attempts.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #814 by Philthy Thrillz » Sun Dec 17, 2017 11:29 am

Getting it in deep reduces fuck ups and scoring chances against.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #815 by Transplanted Caper » Sun Dec 17, 2017 12:09 pm

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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #816 by Philthy Thrillz » Sun Dec 17, 2017 12:58 pm

Balls
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #817 by stoney » Sun Dec 17, 2017 1:05 pm

I actually like the idea of Marincin. He can take the 6th spot.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #818 by AGENT ZERO » Sun Dec 17, 2017 1:06 pm

Philthy Thrillz wrote:Getting it in deep reduces fuck ups and scoring chances against.


Evidently not because we are actually giving up just as many high danger scoring chances, we just aren't creating as many now.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #819 by Transplanted Caper » Sun Dec 17, 2017 1:07 pm

Zaitsev and Gardiner have struggled most of the year, I'll be interested to see how Jake does with a new partner.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #820 by MonkeyWrench » Sun Dec 17, 2017 1:12 pm

Was hoping to get another look at Dermott or Rosen, but Z hitting the IR leaves a massive hole in penalty killing.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #821 by Thomas Malthus » Sun Dec 17, 2017 1:16 pm

I actually would have liked to see Zaitsev paired with Marincin. Maybe that would have brought out the offensive side of Zaitsev's game and made him less hesitant about what his role is. This is Marty's time to shine, he could play himself into the plans. I know for the past few years Babs has said that they thought Marincin could be a top four guy but he never put it together. Evidently Babs has time for a guy like Marincin.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #822 by Philthy Thrillz » Sun Dec 17, 2017 1:32 pm

AGENT ZERO wrote:
Philthy Thrillz wrote:Getting it in deep reduces fuck ups and scoring chances against.


Evidently not because we are actually giving up just as many high danger scoring chances, we just aren't creating as many now.


Not doubting you, intrested to see the numbers, do you have them? What was the game the system changed? (It was reported a number of times)

Ideally it should. Like I said, the Leafs really suck at the cycle game. This is a young team, they have alot to learn.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #823 by LeafOfBread » Sun Dec 17, 2017 1:33 pm

What I'd like - Carrick comes back in and plays with Gardiner, they were decent last year.

Darkest timeline - Borgman bumped up with Gardiner, Marincin with Polak giving us a sweet immobile and unplayable bottom pairing.

What will probably happen? Marincin with Gardiner, which isn't the worst idea.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #824 by AGENT ZERO » Sun Dec 17, 2017 3:24 pm

Watch it be Gardiner - Polak :why:
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #825 by AGENT ZERO » Sun Dec 17, 2017 3:25 pm

Philthy Thrillz wrote:
AGENT ZERO wrote:
Philthy Thrillz wrote:Getting it in deep reduces fuck ups and scoring chances against.


Evidently not because we are actually giving up just as many high danger scoring chances, we just aren't creating as many now.


Not doubting you, intrested to see the numbers, do you have them? What was the game the system changed? (It was reported a number of times)

Ideally it should. Like I said, the Leafs really suck at the cycle game. This is a young team, they have alot to learn.


LOB posted a Burtch tweet with them on the previous page.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #826 by LeafOfBread » Sun Dec 17, 2017 3:42 pm

AGENT ZERO wrote:Watch it be Gardiner - Polak :why:

Fuck I didn't consider that. That's certainly a possibility as well
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #827 by LeafOfBread » Wed Dec 20, 2017 2:27 pm

It's probably worthwhile to assess where James van Riemsdyk is at, after another big game — three points — in an 8-1 blowout against Carolina.

Top 10 in goals, with a pace set for 38, which would be a career high over the 30 he scored in 2013-14. Sixth in the NHL in goals per 60 minutes — with 1.97 — and top 30 in points per 60 — with 3.08, right behind Chicago's Patrick Kane.

Van Riemsdyk is also tied for fourth in the league in power-play goals and is top 20 in power-play points.

Perhaps just as noteworthy, he is producing the best two-way stats of his career. With JVR on the ice, the Leafs are at 55 per cent possession — tops on the team — and have generated 57.5 per cent of the scoring chances.

Those are not only career highs but rank 31st and 16th among all NHL forwards who have played at least 300 even-strength minutes this season.

By any measure, it has been a great start for JVR — even though his ice time is down to 14.5 minutes a game, as Mike Babcock uses him in more of an offensive specialist role.

Van Riemsdyk credits a bit of a secret weapon for that success: Hall of Famer turned skills coach Adam Oates, who he worked with intensively in the off-season and keeps in touch with during the year by email and video chats.

“One hundred per cent,” van Riemsdyk said when asked if Oates has been a big factor in his improvement.

He declined, however, to offer many specifics. He knows Oates likes to keep his methods quiet.

“Let’s just say this: His personality is he wants to know the reason why things happen,” van Riemsdyk said. “There’s different details he looks for and different things that he can help you adjust to improve in certain areas. There’s very specific things he kind of sees and helps you work on that help translate onto the ice. I don’t know if that was detailed enough (an answer) without giving away too much. You might want to call him and see what he has to say.”

Oates, who has been at the centre of several controversies over his work with other team's star players, wasn't saying much.

“I don't do articles about it,” he said via text. “Sorry.”

That's a change on his part. There was a time that Oates' name was everywhere in connection with his skills work, thanks to his willingness to write for The Players' Tribune and even more so to who his clients were. It's a group of the elite that includes Steven Stamkos, Mark Scheifele, Blake Wheeler, Max Pacioretty, Zach Parise and Jack Eichel.

“There are some guys that are having really good years this year that worked with him,” van Riesmdyk said, which could be a reference to Stamkos, Scheifele or Wheeler, three of the NHL's top 15 point producers as we near the halfway point.

Not everyone is enamoured with Oates' work. Some coaches and GMs got upset back in 2015-16, especially when it came to his relationship with Parise and Stamkos and how it impacted their teams. Elliotte Friedman covered that off nicely here in his 30 Thoughts column.

One source I talked to said that friction has led to some long-term acrimony between Oates and Lightning GM Steve Yzerman, who were teammates in Detroit many moons ago. The Wild, meanwhile, seem to tolerate Oates' involvement with their stars rather than encourage it.

Oates is a different cat, as far as the hockey world is concerned. He always has a lot going on and seems to have friends and enemies all over the place. He was even registered as an agent and had one client — Vancouver's Alex Burmistrov — but that ended rather abruptly over the summer.

He is no longer listed on the NHLPA's website as one.

Van Riemsdyk lives and trains in Minnesota in the off-season, so he was aware for years that players like Parise were using Oates for private tutorials. But it was actually a former classmate at the University of New Hampshire, Matt De Mado — who does work as a video director for Oates — who convinced him to give it a try.

Van Riemsdyk was blown away by what he started to learn from one of the best passers to ever play the game.

“The style of player he was was obviously different than the style of player I am, but there are certainly some things that I can try to incorporate,” he said. “Everyone wants to be a more well-rounded player and less predictable. There’s different skill sets you can add to your game. It’s obviously huge.

“Just the way that he sees the game, too, that wouldn’t pigeonhole him from only seeing it from that lens (of how he played). The way he views the game – I mean he was going through some stuff out there with my brother, a defenceman (with Carolina), this summer and it’s just little things that help him with his game.

“I think it’s just different skills that every single player can use. It’s not just particularly if you’re a playmaking forward or a shooting forward. It’s global skills that can improve your game as a player altogether.”

Van Riesmdyk has gained a real reputation in Toronto for all of the off-ice work that he does. He is way into supplements and different training methods, more than perhaps any other player I've met covering the Leafs the last 10 years.

His brother, Trevor, said even he is still blown away by how meticulous James is with his off-season preparation.

“That’s something I marvel at,” the younger van Riemsdyk said. “The little things that he’s done throughout the years to keep him at top shape and bounce back from whatever adversity he’s faced. In the summer, he doesn’t really take any sort of time off. He’s always looking for ways to improve himself, to get different perspectives, and he’s constantly using that. Sometimes he wants to see it and decides it’s not for him. But he’s always looking at different players and seeing different things that they do.

“Without him, I wouldn’t even realize there were all these things you can do, on the ice or off the ice. Treatments and different people to talk to. He really stays on top of it. He’s always bringing stuff and asking me to come be with him and letting me know he’s got stuff lined up if I wanted to join him. I’m always hoping to get those texts from him to see that stuff. It’s definitely nice to be around him in the summer and getting to see all the stuff that he does and be a part of it.”

Some NHL players who hire skill coaches or special trainers rationalize it like so: The heavy investment up front financially will pay off in their next contract far more than they've spent, if the results show up on the ice. Five more goals, or 10 more points, go a long way in contract negotiations.

Van Riemsdyk, however, flat out said getting a big payday as a free agent isn't his motivation. One gets the sense, at least in casual conversation, that money isn't that high on his priority list, even if he's coming off a deal where he has been underpaid for years. (His agent may well have other ideas of course.)

He seems to just be one of those athletes that wants to get better and better, to the point he can be an impact player in the NHL for a very long time. He looks at hockey — and talks about it — like a craft, one that can be honed again and again. And he intends — as long as his health holds up — to play as long as possible, following in the path of someone like ageless teammate Patrick Marleau.

Van Riemsdyk believes working with Oates — who charges clients tens of thousands of dollars for even basic consultations — is one new tool that will help him do so.

“He’s a brilliant hockey resource to have,” van Riemsdyk said. “Someone who’s had the career he had, to hear what he has to say, and the different kind of avenues he sees in the game. It’s definitely been interesting to work with him.

“The way we approach it in the off-season is you kind of have some stuff in your mind you want to work on. Some of that comes from feedback with the team: 'We’d like you to do this, this and this and get better at this.' With Oatesy, he helps put together a different plan. It’s something you can go out there and actively work on. In the summer, unless you really have that 1-on-1 time with someone, it’s tough to really make huge strides in certain areas. It can be stuff that’s pretty particular.

“Sometimes you feel like you’re beating your head against the wall. I’ve been working at this, why am I not making any progress? He’ll be like oh it’s because you’re blah blah blah. It’s been interesting.”

NHL teams often don't have time to do that type of 1-on-1 work during the season. There are fewer practice days than ever, especially with sports science teams now advocating for more rest. Even wealthy clubs like the Leafs only have a few assistant coaches and maybe a couple in skills or development roles. The assistants are often drilling home systems, not skills work. Not everyone gets equal time with Darryl Belfry, who was heavily focused on Auston Matthews this past summer.

One thing van Riemsdyk points to is that goalies have their own dedicated off-season coaches, something he believes scorers are going to have to do more to keep up with how much better netminders have become.

Save percentages have gone up and up over the years. Shooting percentages have, as a result, gone down.

“The goalies have been doing that for years,” van Riemsdyk said. “It’s interesting. If you look at the position that’s made the most progress in hockey in the last 25, 30 years, it’s been goaltending. Obviously they’ve caught up and surpassed skaters. We wonder, too, if that (extra skills work) is why goal scoring is down.

“The goalies should get some credit for the work that they’ve put in to get themselves to be that successful. That template (of paying your own off-season staff) is pretty common for goalies. I wouldn’t say it’s as common for players. But again if you can get different skills to work on to create more offence and be a better player stuff like that it’s going to lead to more goals. That’s the interesting part.”

Early on this season, it's worked out well. Well enough that he could definitely earn a seven-year deal for big money on the open market, if the Leafs decide not to keep him.

While it is typically a mistake to sign players approaching 30 years old to long-term contracts, van Riemsdyk feels like a better bet than most to be productive for a long time. He will certainly put the work in to be as effective as possible.

“He takes a lot of pride in doing every little thing he can to make sure he stays on top of his game and play as long as he can,” Trevor van Riemsdyk said of his brother, who is two years older. “He loves the game. He’s a student of the game. He really enjoys that part of it.”


mirtle piece on jvr
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #828 by AGENT ZERO » Wed Dec 20, 2017 3:13 pm

I'm still extremely skeptical of signing JVR to an extension, but of all the UFA's this team has he is the only one who has played well enough to even merit consideration.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #829 by AGENT ZERO » Wed Dec 20, 2017 3:16 pm

This sort of reinforces LOB's point last week that Babcock has been over-coaching this season.

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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #830 by Philthy Thrillz » Wed Dec 20, 2017 4:20 pm

And we are 11-5 at home and 10-8-1 on the road.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #831 by AGENT ZERO » Wed Dec 20, 2017 4:44 pm

Philthy Thrillz wrote:And we are 11-5 at home and 10-8-1 on the road.


Looking at raw win-loss totals is a lazy and ineffective way to measure a team. Since Nov 1st, Fredrik Andersen has been one of the best goaltenders in the league, if not the best, that is the reason the record looks the way that it does. Maybe that continues, but I wouldn't bet on it.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #832 by Curry Rage » Wed Dec 20, 2017 5:02 pm

I dunno. How many places are you going to find a 29 goal scorer who plays the front of the net like JVR? Thirty...err...I mean...29 goals is a lot to replace over an off-season.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #833 by AGENT ZERO » Wed Dec 20, 2017 5:20 pm

Curry Rage wrote:I dunno. How many places are you going to find a 29 goal scorer who plays the front of the net like JVR? Thirty...err...I mean...29 goals is a lot to replace over an off-season.


It will be very difficult to replace his production, but how much longer can we reasonably expect JVR to play at this level, and is it enough to justify the likely 6 year term that he will command?
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #834 by Curry Rage » Wed Dec 20, 2017 5:32 pm

Hard to tell. Lots of high end guys stay productive into their 30s. He doesn't have a bad injury history - i.e. nothing chronic or joint-related. As for term and bucks, who knows what he'll want. Rumours are that it's not about that for him. He may want to be part of a team going in the right direction. Babs sure has helped him with his next negotiation. Both Babs and Lou like their vets.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #835 by Philthy Thrillz » Wed Dec 20, 2017 5:33 pm

AGENT ZERO wrote:
Philthy Thrillz wrote:And we are 11-5 at home and 10-8-1 on the road.


Looking at raw win-loss totals is a lazy and ineffective way to measure a team. Since Nov 1st, Fredrik Andersen has been one of the best goaltenders in the league, if not the best, that is the reason the record looks the way that it does. Maybe that continues, but I wouldn't bet on it.



I'll take the team record, great goalie stats, and Mike fucking Babcock over a fancy stat any day. One in which is ineffective and out of touch with reality.

TB has a goalie with a 933 save%, probably contributes to a win here and there.

Minny is 10-4 at home and 8-9 on the road. Undercoached?
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #836 by vf » Wed Dec 20, 2017 5:39 pm

Who cares about wins and losses? I want my expectations built around fucking fenwick and henweigh!
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #837 by AGENT ZERO » Wed Dec 20, 2017 5:46 pm

Philthy Thrillz wrote:
AGENT ZERO wrote:
Philthy Thrillz wrote:And we are 11-5 at home and 10-8-1 on the road.


Looking at raw win-loss totals is a lazy and ineffective way to measure a team. Since Nov 1st, Fredrik Andersen has been one of the best goaltenders in the league, if not the best, that is the reason the record looks the way that it does. Maybe that continues, but I wouldn't bet on it.



I'll take the team record, great goalie stats, and Mike fucking Babcock over a fancy stat any day. One in which is ineffective and out of touch with reality.

TB has a goalie with a 933 save%, probably contributes to a win here and there.

Minny is 10-4 at home and 8-9 on the road.


I think everyone will take it, but these numbers outline a concerning trend that most of us have observed watching the games. There is lots of reason for optimism about this team, but they still have a ways to go.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #838 by Thomas Malthus » Wed Dec 20, 2017 5:51 pm

Depending on his price I'd consider keeping JvR. Speed has never been his calling card, if he loses a bit as he ages it's not big deal so long as he's sheltered at evens and gets heavy PP usage. The counterfactual is, "what would a guy like Leivo or Kapanen put up if he was sheltered at evens and got heavy PP usage?" Based on some articles from earlier in the season it seems I was wrong to think JvR's defense swamped his offense but I still think it's worth considering whether or not Kapanen in JvR minutes + JvR return > JvR extension.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #839 by Philthy Thrillz » Wed Dec 20, 2017 6:06 pm

AGENT ZERO wrote:
Philthy Thrillz wrote:
AGENT ZERO wrote:
Looking at raw win-loss totals is a lazy and ineffective way to measure a team. Since Nov 1st, Fredrik Andersen has been one of the best goaltenders in the league, if not the best, that is the reason the record looks the way that it does. Maybe that continues, but I wouldn't bet on it.



I'll take the team record, great goalie stats, and Mike fucking Babcock over a fancy stat any day. One in which is ineffective and out of touch with reality.

TB has a goalie with a 933 save%, probably contributes to a win here and there.

Minny is 10-4 at home and 8-9 on the road.


I think everyone will take it, but these numbers outline a concerning trend that most of us have observed watching the games. There is lots of reason for optimism about this team, but they still have a ways to go.


Not even sure of the fancy stat I'm arguing against, lol. I was just arguing out of boredom. What is the concern that is observed, home and away? What did the stat mean, and how does it relate to being overcoached? Educate me.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #840 by Curry Rage » Wed Dec 20, 2017 6:21 pm

Thomas Malthus wrote:Depending on his price I'd consider keeping JvR. Speed has never been his calling card, if he loses a bit as he ages it's not big deal so long as he's sheltered at evens and gets heavy PP usage. The counterfactual is, "what would a guy like Leivo or Kapanen put up if he was sheltered at evens and got heavy PP usage?" Based on some articles from earlier in the season it seems I was wrong to think JvR's defense swamped his offense but I still think it's worth considering whether or not Kapanen in JvR minutes + JvR return > JvR extension.


Ehn, I think you'll be waiting a few years (or forever) to see Kapanen pot 30 in limited minutes. JVR is incredible in tight and his size makes a big difference. Leivo ain't got those hands. To be able to have a consistent elite threat from the best place on the ice to score from is ++. A PP threat like that (remember Holmstrom?) can make the difference in a close game or series when everyone is playing not to get scored on at ES. I honestly put JVR in the same company as Andreychuk/Holmstrom in regard to his net front abilities. Andreychuk profited from playing in an era with much worse goaltending. Hell, there was still controversy about the "butterfly" style! "They go down too much!"
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #841 by AGENT ZERO » Wed Dec 20, 2017 6:35 pm

Philthy Thrillz wrote:
AGENT ZERO wrote:
Philthy Thrillz wrote:

I'll take the team record, great goalie stats, and Mike fucking Babcock over a fancy stat any day. One in which is ineffective and out of touch with reality.

TB has a goalie with a 933 save%, probably contributes to a win here and there.

Minny is 10-4 at home and 8-9 on the road.


I think everyone will take it, but these numbers outline a concerning trend that most of us have observed watching the games. There is lots of reason for optimism about this team, but they still have a ways to go.


Not even sure of the fancy stat I'm arguing against, lol. I was just arguing out of boredom. What is the concern that is observed, home and away? What did the stat mean, and how does it relate to being overcoached? Educate me.


Basically the Leafs have a better expected S% on the road then at home. The one key difference being that the Leafs can't line match as much on the road because the opposing coach has last change. This is significant because guys like Komarov, Brown, Marleau etc. have been played heavily at home at the expense of guys like Nylander, JVR and Marner. On the road Babcock can't do that to the same extent, and the results have hurt as at home as you might expect. It's more reactive coaching, which is fine if it limits high danger opportunities against, but some of the data suggests that we are giving up an equal if not greater number of such chances, but at the expense of our offense.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #842 by clawfirst » Wed Dec 20, 2017 6:42 pm

For my lazyness will you please post the home away splits for some other fun things like pdo, pp/pk ratio, ect before i decide whether or not to argue with you for fun
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #843 by LeafOfBread » Wed Dec 20, 2017 6:45 pm

AZ, wouldn't the fact that the Leafs played most of their home games in October (when Andersen was ass) and have been playing mostly on the road since then (when Andersen has been much better) impact those numbers a lot? Or is this is simply a predictive sv% that is based solely on shot quality?
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #844 by AGENT ZERO » Wed Dec 20, 2017 6:46 pm

Curry Rage wrote:
Thomas Malthus wrote:Depending on his price I'd consider keeping JvR. Speed has never been his calling card, if he loses a bit as he ages it's not big deal so long as he's sheltered at evens and gets heavy PP usage. The counterfactual is, "what would a guy like Leivo or Kapanen put up if he was sheltered at evens and got heavy PP usage?" Based on some articles from earlier in the season it seems I was wrong to think JvR's defense swamped his offense but I still think it's worth considering whether or not Kapanen in JvR minutes + JvR return > JvR extension.


Ehn, I think you'll be waiting a few years (or forever) to see Kapanen pot 30 in limited minutes. JVR is incredible in tight and his size makes a big difference. Leivo ain't got those hands. To be able to have a consistent elite threat from the best place on the ice to score from is ++. A PP threat like that (remember Holmstrom?) can make the difference in a close game or series when everyone is playing not to get scored on at ES. I honestly put JVR in the same company as Andreychuk/Holmstrom in regard to his net front abilities. Andreychuk profited from playing in an era with much worse goaltending. Hell, there was still controversy about the "butterfly" style! "They go down too much!"


He's right there with Sid and Pavelski in redirects near the goal front IIRC.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #845 by AGENT ZERO » Wed Dec 20, 2017 6:47 pm

LeafOfBread wrote:AZ, wouldn't the fact that the Leafs played most of their home games in October (when Andersen was ass) and have been playing mostly on the road since then (when Andersen has been much better) impact those numbers a lot? Or is this is simply a predictive sv% that is based solely on shot quality?


The latter.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #846 by AGENT ZERO » Wed Dec 20, 2017 6:49 pm

clawfirst wrote:For my lazyness will you please post the home away splits for some other fun things like pdo, pp/pk ratio, ect before i decide whether or not to argue with you for fun


Navigating through advanced hockey stats websites is like pulling teeth, which is why I usually just post them directly from twatter.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #847 by Whit Dickman » Wed Dec 20, 2017 6:53 pm

I think we should re-sign JVR. We can trade him if we need the cap space at some point (although he might need a NTC).
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #848 by clawfirst » Wed Dec 20, 2017 6:55 pm

AGENT ZERO wrote:
clawfirst wrote:For my lazyness will you please post the home away splits for some other fun things like pdo, pp/pk ratio, ect before i decide whether or not to argue with you for fun


Navigating through advanced hockey stats websites is like pulling teeth, which is why I usually just post them directly from twatter.

Which is why i dont want to do the work. Nice fred doe

Maybe malthus will do it.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #849 by AGENT ZERO » Wed Dec 20, 2017 7:02 pm

clawfirst wrote:
AGENT ZERO wrote:
clawfirst wrote:For my lazyness will you please post the home away splits for some other fun things like pdo, pp/pk ratio, ect before i decide whether or not to argue with you for fun


Navigating through advanced hockey stats websites is like pulling teeth, which is why I usually just post them directly from twatter.

Which is why i dont want to do the work. Nice fred doe

Maybe malthus will do it.


Yeah, TM or LOB are the lone hopes when it comes to this type of work.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #850 by Philthy Thrillz » Wed Dec 20, 2017 7:43 pm

AGENT ZERO wrote:
Philthy Thrillz wrote:
AGENT ZERO wrote:
I think everyone will take it, but these numbers outline a concerning trend that most of us have observed watching the games. There is lots of reason for optimism about this team, but they still have a ways to go.


Not even sure of the fancy stat I'm arguing against, lol. I was just arguing out of boredom. What is the concern that is observed, home and away? What did the stat mean, and how does it relate to being overcoached? Educate me.


Basically the Leafs have a better expected S% on the road then at home. The one key difference being that the Leafs can't line match as much on the road because the opposing coach has last change. This is significant because guys like Komarov, Brown, Marleau etc. have been played heavily at home at the expense of guys like Nylander, JVR and Marner. On the road Babcock can't do that to the same extent, and the results have hurt as at home as you might expect. It's more reactive coaching, which is fine if it limits high danger opportunities against, but some of the data suggests that we are giving up an equal if not greater number of such chances, but at the expense of our offense.


Couple questions.

What is Andersens home and away save%? (This was your reason why they were winning at home)

Whats the teams gaa per game home away split?

Are we jumpong out to leads earlier at home and collapsing into a trap game, inflating the other teams chances and the toi of the 200 foot players?

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