ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #1451 by LeafOfBread » Fri Feb 16, 2018 10:43 am

clawfirst wrote:If i was a betting man id put more money on the Rags than leafs.

I doubt it'd be NYR, they've publicly declared they are going to undergo a rebuild and they've got a pretty barren prospect pool. Like AZ said, if it's just money he'll stay in NYI, but if he wants to legitimately win he'll go to a contender or team with good potential. (again, don't think it'll be the Leafs)
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #1452 by Thomas Malthus » Fri Feb 16, 2018 10:53 am

Which contender is going to have room? Which teams have as much potential as the Leafs over the course of JT's next deal? Legitimately asking.

Maybe Calgary? They have goaltending, defense and good young offensive players.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #1453 by LeafOfBread » Fri Feb 16, 2018 11:34 am

Thomas Malthus wrote:Which contender is going to have room? Which teams have as much potential as the Leafs over the course of JT's next deal? Legitimately asking.

Maybe Calgary? They have goaltending, defense and good young offensive players.

Calgary will have lots of cap space, as will Winnipeg. Though, Winnipeg has Enstrom hitting UFA, Trouba and Morrissey hitting RFA. Wheeler also has only one more year left on his deal. Still around 20M in cap space though and most of the core guys like Ehlers and Scheifele are locked up otherwise. Winterpeg is a shithole though so that alone may deter him.

If he wants to stay close to where he is, NJ is an option. Young team with potential, ~20M in cap space and Shero has done some nice work.

If Carolina added him, and brought in a real goaltender they are also a major threat, however the ownership situation is not great.

San Jose is another possibility, he would be the alpha there since Thornton is on his last legs and Tavares is better than either of Pavelski or Couture.

STL could also make it work, but almost the entire defense with the exception of Parayko is going to be UFA by 2020.They would also have to let Stastny walk, which I'm sure they're okay with if they're getting Tavares anyways.

I'm sure teams like Vancouver, Detroit, Buffalo and Montreal will also try and make pitches but obviously all those are terrible teams.

There's also Vegas :bettman:
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #1454 by AGENT ZERO » Fri Feb 16, 2018 1:24 pm

I think it's 60-40 with the odds slightly in favor of JT resigning in Long Island.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #1455 by Geo » Fri Feb 16, 2018 6:19 pm

I absolutely expect Tavares to re-sign.

If there's a question, I guess it's how far do the Isles go with their mega-offer extension for Tavares who turns 28 years old in September? McDavid will be at 12.5, Eichel at 10, but those guys signed their extensions before their 21st birthday. Toews and Kane signed at 10.5 when they were 26 and 25 respectively, after helping the Blackhawks win two Cups in the previous 5 years, and then going on to win their third Cup that season. Kopitar signed at 10 per when he was 28, having helped the LA Kings win two Cups in the previous 4 seasons. Benn was three days away from turning 27 when he signed at 9.5, and unbelievably, Carey Price was two weeks from 30 when he signed a 10.5M-per extension that starts with him on the ice at the age of 31. Of course, all of those guys got the 8th year on their deal.

Stamkos at 26 notably re-signed with the Lightning at 8.5 per as, thanks especially to that exclusive 8th year and no income tax in Florida, that contract was more lucrative than what may have been offered from the biggest markets/suitors.

Assuming Tavares is offered that 8-year mega-deal from the Isles, which may he have already in some form, how does he not take that? He knows as well as anyone that injury can strike at anytime, plus he does like it there provided the new arena comes through. Tavares will give them a few seasons to deliver, and if they don't, he will engineer his way out. He'll have given the organization more than enough for him to worry about the situation that leaves them in, especially as he's ensured them getting some assets back as opposed to leaving outright as an unrestricted free agent.

If Tavares does leave, thinking about it, it is hard not to wonder if the Leafs do have the best chance. His greatest success after leaving junior is winning Olympic gold and the World Cup of Hockey with Mike Babcock as his coach, maybe that would be a strong draw for him. Maybe he really does want to play for the Toronto Maple Leafs when things are going well. Problem is, how close are the Leafs going to get with a contract offer when they have Matthews, Nylander, and Marner, among other potential players, to sign to extensions?

They can afford Tavares next season with Nylander's extension kicking in, and they can probably even afford "The Big Four" starting the season after that: (1) depending on the figures involved; (2) requiring extremely cheap depth at a considerable number of positions - particularly on defense; and (3) dealing away Marleau's relatively inflated cap hit in the remaining third year of his deal, which perhaps we can only speculate about at this point?

Obviously Tavares has a big decision to make, but how aggressive the Leafs will actually be and what that would entail going forward is interesting. What would the lines look like if they did add Tavares for example, given the success we're seeing them discover now? We'll see how it all pans out.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #1456 by LeafOfBread » Fri Feb 16, 2018 7:32 pm

Geo wrote:I

Assuming Tavares is offered that 8-year mega-deal from the Isles, which may he have already in some form, how does he not take that? He knows as well as anyone that injury can strike at anytime, plus he does like it there provided the new arena comes through. Tavares will give them a few seasons to deliver, and if they don't, he will engineer his way out. He'll have given the organization more than enough for him to worry about the situation that leaves them in, especially as he's ensured them getting some assets back as opposed to leaving outright as an unrestricted free agent.



Hasn't he already done this for almost 10 years though?
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #1457 by Geo » Fri Feb 16, 2018 7:47 pm

LeafOfBread wrote:
Geo wrote:I

Assuming Tavares is offered that 8-year mega-deal from the Isles, which may he have already in some form, how does he not take that? He knows as well as anyone that injury can strike at anytime, plus he does like it there provided the new arena comes through. Tavares will give them a few seasons to deliver, and if they don't, he will engineer his way out. He'll have given the organization more than enough for him to worry about the situation that leaves them in, especially as he's ensured them getting some assets back as opposed to leaving outright as an unrestricted free agent.



Hasn't he already done this for almost 10 years though?

You are correct.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #1458 by Philthy Thrillz » Sat Feb 17, 2018 10:07 am

I don't think this is like the stamkos situation. The organizations they play for are at the other ends of the spectrum. I don't think he re signs with them.

I think it comes down to the Leafs, Scabs, and the Rangers. Montreal needs that 1c, they will offer him a huge contract, they have the space. The Rags are the Rags. They throw money at every star that hits UFA. I think there "rebuild" plan starts and ends with JT. The Leafs went after Stamkos. That tells me they feel there is room for another star down the middle. They will meet with JT. He'll have to decide if he wants to win here. Looking at the Leafs situation, I put them at 50/50 for landing him.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #1459 by WTF » Sat Feb 17, 2018 10:12 am

Philthy Thrillz wrote:I don't think this is like the stamkos situation. The organizations they play for are at the other ends of the spectrum. I don't think he re signs with them.

I think it comes down to the Leafs, Scabs, and the Rangers. Montreal needs that 1c, they will offer him a huge contract, they have the space. The Rags are the Rags. They throw money at every star that hits UFA. I think there "rebuild" plan starts and ends with JT. The Leafs went after Stamkos. That tells me they feel there is room for another star down the middle. They will meet with JT. He'll have to decide if he wants to win here. Looking at the Leafs situation, I put them at 50/50 for landing him.


With regards to the Stamkos offer, that was before the Leafs really knew what they had in Auston. I think we'll still go after JT if he makes it to free agency but it'll temper how far management will be willing to go as far as the offer is concerned. I'm sure it'll still be a generous offer but in terms of both cap management and setting the tone for a long-term deal for Matthews, they can't go absolutely nuts on an offer to Tavares. Maybe if we're really lucky, JT will be willing to take a minor hometown discount.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #1460 by mooseOAK » Sat Feb 17, 2018 11:12 am

Backlund just signed a long term deal with the Flames. Guess that makes Bozak the second best free agent centre.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #1461 by MonkeyWrench » Sat Feb 17, 2018 12:18 pm

When someone like Bonino gets 4.1, I shudder a little bit about bringing Bozak back.
Now he didn't return to a stanley cup winner, so the nasvhille contract was likely one of the top offers.
Quality/quantity/demand/etc.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #1462 by AGENT ZERO » Sat Feb 17, 2018 2:12 pm

Signing a 32 year old Bozak is not something I want to see the Leafs do. I'd rather overpay for a winger and shift Nylander to the middle.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #1463 by mooseOAK » Sat Feb 17, 2018 2:57 pm

I’d rather not take a player who is doing very well where he is and change his job. The Peter Principle would be in effect.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #1464 by AGENT ZERO » Sat Feb 17, 2018 3:42 pm

It beats signing a declining 3rd liner that is turning 32. That contract has disaster written all over it.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #1465 by Curry Rage » Sat Feb 17, 2018 4:11 pm

"Disaster".
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #1466 by AGENT ZERO » Sat Feb 17, 2018 4:32 pm

I wouldn't hate JG Pageau as a Bozak replacement. He shouldn't cost too much and is still young enough that you can project some upside.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #1467 by MonkeyWrench » Sat Feb 17, 2018 4:48 pm

Pageau would be a tremendous buy low opportunity. However the cost will likely be too great, and I simply don't see Ottawa trading with the leafs.
The Phaneuf deal was out of left field. Was more of a last ditch effort to keep them going aswell as evening the salaries.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #1468 by Thomas Malthus » Sat Feb 17, 2018 7:00 pm

I have way more interest in Stastny than I do in Bozak returning.

Looking at his stats, Pageau is a weird player. Awful numbers this year on a tire fire Ottawa team. His xGF numbers are much, much better than his CF numbers. He ranks out slightly better than Bozak at exiting his own zone but worse entering the offensive zone. In terms of generating offense he's worse than Bozak but his zone starts and QoC are much more difficult than Bozak's. Pageau spends the most time with Pyatt and then either Smith or Hoffman as the third linemate.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #1469 by clawfirst » Sat Feb 17, 2018 7:01 pm

Id kinda like to see him come back for the trololololol
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #1470 by Philthy Thrillz » Sat Feb 17, 2018 7:27 pm

I'd bring him back for 3/3.5 on a three/four year deal. And play him on the fourth line.

Matthews 11
JT 11
Kadri 4.5?
Bozak 3.5

We have one year with Matthews on the cheap. All in

Championship.

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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #1471 by Thomas Malthus » Sat Feb 17, 2018 10:02 pm

This team need to upgrade their defence badly.

Zaitsev is bad. He just is. Hainsey needs to play #4/5 minutes. Polak needs to be shot into the sun.

Tanev to play with Mo. Hainsey with Jake. Dermott with Zaitsev (ideally trade Zaitsev and either play Carrick with Jake again while Hainsey flips to Dermott or play Carrick with Dermott).
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #1472 by AGENT ZERO » Sat Feb 17, 2018 10:20 pm

I'm with you TM, I was hopeful that Zaitsev would get better with easier minutes and some experience under his belt, but at some point you just need to call a spade a spade.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #1473 by AGENT ZERO » Sat Feb 17, 2018 10:22 pm

Philthy Thrillz wrote:I'd bring him back for 3/3.5 on a three/four year deal. And play him on the fourth line.

Matthews 11
JT 11
Kadri 4.5?
Bozak 3.5

We have one year with Matthews on the cheap. All in

Championship.

Purge.


Make a play for Karlsson at the draft

Rielly - Karlsson
Gardiner - Hainsey
Dermott - Zaitsev
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #1474 by Dynrehab » Sat Feb 17, 2018 11:18 pm

clawfirst wrote:Id kinda like to see him come back for the trololololol


I’d rather Bozak than Grabovsky.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #1475 by clawfirst » Sun Feb 18, 2018 12:30 am

Dynrehab wrote:
clawfirst wrote:Id kinda like to see him come back for the trololololol


I’d rather Bozak than Grabovsky.

It aged well.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #1476 by Curry Rage » Sun Feb 18, 2018 8:12 am

Fuck Tanev. He'll never play a full season and he doesn't move the puck that well. And if we do overpay for the guy based on shot suppression and Corsiwicks, I don't want him anywhere near my top pairing on a long term basis. Ron Hainsey is 1000 years old and still scores at the same rate. Meh.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #1477 by AGENT ZERO » Sun Feb 18, 2018 11:31 am

I actually like Tanev's first pass whenever I've watched him, but the most important thing is that he is strong in his own end without the puck which is where Rielly struggles. We would need to do more than just add Tanev, but I think it would be a good starting point provided the price is right.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #1478 by Curry Rage » Sun Feb 18, 2018 12:13 pm

What's the right price for 60G of defensively reliable and offensively shit? He's a 4 at best.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #1479 by Dynrehab » Sun Feb 18, 2018 1:32 pm

AGENT ZERO wrote:I actually like Tanev's first pass whenever I've watched him, but the most important thing is that he is strong in his own end without the puck which is where Rielly struggles. We would need to do more than just add Tanev, but I think it would be a good starting point provided the price is right.


I think he’d be a good add at the right price, but I am astonished at the price Canuck fans say he is worth, not that they are ever right about the value of their players.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #1480 by AGENT ZERO » Sun Feb 18, 2018 1:34 pm

Curry Rage wrote:What's the right price for 60G of defensively reliable and offensively shit? He's a 4 at best.


1st rounder and mid tier prospect IMO
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #1481 by AGENT ZERO » Sun Feb 18, 2018 1:35 pm

Dynrehab wrote:
AGENT ZERO wrote:I actually like Tanev's first pass whenever I've watched him, but the most important thing is that he is strong in his own end without the puck which is where Rielly struggles. We would need to do more than just add Tanev, but I think it would be a good starting point provided the price is right.


I think he’d be a good add at the right price, but I am astonished at the price Canuck fans say he is worth, not that they are ever right about the value of their players.


Nucks fans are idiots
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #1482 by Curry Rage » Sun Feb 18, 2018 1:46 pm

AGENT ZERO wrote:
Curry Rage wrote:What's the right price for 60G of defensively reliable and offensively shit? He's a 4 at best.


1st rounder and mid tier prospect IMO


Hard no.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #1483 by Philthy Thrillz » Sun Feb 18, 2018 1:58 pm

We need that 1st for JT.

Where the fuck is paulie, lets do this!
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #1484 by Philthy Thrillz » Sun Feb 18, 2018 1:59 pm

All you jaded fuckers get on the JT wagon. It's lonely on here.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #1485 by AGENT ZERO » Sun Feb 18, 2018 2:00 pm

Curry Rage wrote:
AGENT ZERO wrote:
Curry Rage wrote:What's the right price for 60G of defensively reliable and offensively shit? He's a 4 at best.


1st rounder and mid tier prospect IMO


Hard no.


What is your ideal solution to the RD problem?
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #1486 by Curry Rage » Sun Feb 18, 2018 2:15 pm

Haven't put a tonne of thought into it. But tossing away 1st rounders on declining defensive specialists who are hurt 1/3 of the time isn't part of it.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #1487 by AGENT ZERO » Sun Feb 18, 2018 3:02 pm

Whoever the Leafs acquire to play the RS is going to be expensive unless they trade for someone who hasn't proven anything yet. There just aren't many good RD available unfortunately.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #1488 by mooseOAK » Sun Feb 18, 2018 3:08 pm

Gudbranson might be on the market.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #1489 by Curry Rage » Sun Feb 18, 2018 3:17 pm

AGENT ZERO wrote:Whoever the Leafs acquire to play the RS is going to be expensive unless they trade for someone who hasn't proven anything yet. There just aren't many good RD available unfortunately.


I don't deny that a top-4 player is going to cost. RD even more. I'd pay for a whole player. I wouldn't pay premium value for a guy who can't stay healthy and whose numbers have declined accordingly.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #1490 by Dynrehab » Sun Feb 18, 2018 3:44 pm

I don’t know what it matters, but the Bruins remaining schedule is as fucked up as the Leafs schedule in November/December. They have 5 more games than the Leafs with lots of road trips from March 1st to April 8th.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #1491 by Curry Rage » Sun Feb 18, 2018 3:48 pm

Yeah, we're finally getting a string of games against the crappy teams in the East. BOS already had a bunch of those.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #1492 by LeafOfBread » Sun Feb 18, 2018 4:44 pm

Boston has lost to Buffalo and Vancouver in the same week. Got their asses handed to them by the Canucks.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #1493 by vf » Sun Feb 18, 2018 5:41 pm

AGENT ZERO wrote:I'm with you TM, I was hopeful that Zaitsev would get better with easier minutes and some experience under his belt, but at some point you just need to call a spade a spade.


So 125 NHL games is the limit? Imagine the Leafs dumping Kadri Dec. 2013.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #1494 by paulster » Sun Feb 18, 2018 5:43 pm

JT is coming. Shanahan has learned from their over the top Stamkos proposal and won’t be so weird this time.

Plus they got Lou now right? He wasn’t there before was he?
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #1495 by Thomas Malthus » Sun Feb 18, 2018 5:49 pm

vf wrote:
AGENT ZERO wrote:I'm with you TM, I was hopeful that Zaitsev would get better with easier minutes and some experience under his belt, but at some point you just need to call a spade a spade.


So 125 NHL games is the limit? Imagine the Leafs dumping Kadri Dec. 2013.


Kadri at least looked good based on some metrics and was on the right side of the age curve. Zaitsev looks awful with just about every metric available—Corsi, expected goals, zone entries and exits, passing stats, even those Sportlogiq micro stats don't have anything nice to say about him. He's had the benefit of the doubt based on "adjusting to North American ice and the league. What reason is there exactly to be optimistic about his future performance?
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #1496 by LeafOfBread » Sun Feb 18, 2018 6:01 pm

paulster wrote:JT is coming. Shanahan has learned from their over the top Stamkos proposal and won’t be so weird this time.

Plus they got Lou now right? He wasn’t there before was he?

Lou was there.
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LeafOfBread
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #1497 by LeafOfBread » Sun Feb 18, 2018 6:05 pm

IMO Zaitsev's issues are all mental. He has some real confidence problems. I usually don't use that to defend a player but just reading some of his interviews and how hard he is on himself, as well as how in Russia they develop dmen with little creativity, I think he has some sort of mental block. The skills are there, he can pass, he can skate, he can shoot. We've seen glimpses of this, especially early this season. I'm not sure what it is with him but it's disappointing because he was a stud for the best KHL team as well as for Russia at the World championships and then the World Cup as well. The potential is there, we'll see whether he reaches it or not. Yes he's not a green 20 year old but he is a late bloomer who is only in his second NHL season.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #1498 by clawfirst » Sun Feb 18, 2018 7:53 pm

Zaitsev isnt good
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #1499 by vf » Sun Feb 18, 2018 7:55 pm

Thomas Malthus wrote:
vf wrote:
AGENT ZERO wrote:I'm with you TM, I was hopeful that Zaitsev would get better with easier minutes and some experience under his belt, but at some point you just need to call a spade a spade.


So 125 NHL games is the limit? Imagine the Leafs dumping Kadri Dec. 2013.


Kadri at least looked good based on some metrics and was on the right side of the age curve. Zaitsev looks awful with just about every metric available—Corsi, expected goals, zone entries and exits, passing stats, even those Sportlogiq micro stats don't have anything nice to say about him. He's had the benefit of the doubt based on "adjusting to North American ice and the league. What reason is there exactly to be optimistic about his future performance?


The organization has faith. For now I'll take Shanahan, Lou, and Babcocks opinions over any current stat publicly available. None of them can account for learning, confidence or system.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #1500 by AGENT ZERO » Sun Feb 18, 2018 8:28 pm

It's not just the stats vf, Zaitsev looks awful to the eye. Blindly ignoring stats and performance just because management extended him doesn't make much sense.

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