ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #2001 by Philthy Thrillz » Fri May 04, 2018 10:32 am

I'm surprised we weren't dead last to be honest.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #2002 by Curry Rage » Fri May 04, 2018 10:52 am

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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #2003 by AGENT ZERO » Fri May 04, 2018 12:51 pm

We all just need to micro-dose some shrooms for a bit.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #2004 by Curry Rage » Fri May 04, 2018 1:31 pm

Why fuck around?

Heroic Dose or GTFO.

Blow the doors off then take a year to pick your shit up.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #2005 by Philthy Thrillz » Fri May 04, 2018 1:47 pm

What is a micro-dose, two grams?
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #2006 by Curry Rage » Fri May 04, 2018 1:49 pm

Philthy Thrillz wrote:What is a micro-dose, two grams?


Heh. It's all relative.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #2007 by cawbber » Fri May 04, 2018 5:52 pm

Thomas Malthus wrote:Dellow has a piece up in the Athletic looking at league wide icing trends.

He notes that tactics are hard to pin down because there are incentives to not reveal tactical changes. He wanted to look at this after his finding of the Leafs sucking after faceoffs, especially defensive zone faceoffs and in light of everyone talking about the Leafs' defense.

He starts with some simple graphs showing that the Leafs iced the puck second most this season, behind only Dallas, and that they say the largest increase in icings from the year before (though even if their icing rate hadn't changed they still would have been around or slightly above league average in icings. The increase was about one additional icing per game and they iced the puck nearly 7 times a game in 2017-2018. He then points out that Babs' teams haven't historically iced the puck all that much and since the roster didn't change between last year and this year all that much perhaps tactics are involved.

He breaks things down into shift types based on faceoff location and outcomes the way he normally does and points out (like in the piece comparing Leafs to Bruins) that for on the fly shifts (that don't begin in a faceoff) the Leafs are pretty, pretty good. So do they ice the puck a lot in certain situations? He finds some trends league-wide with defensive zone faceoffs but that the Leafs are particularly bad after wins (40% higher than league average) and that they are also icing the puck more for on the fly shifts and neutral zone loses (also 40% higher) and wins (20% higher).

He points out that this year of many icings coincided with Babs' poorest corsi results after faceoff wins going back to 2010-2011. But he thinks that the icings are a sign that something is wrong rather than being the reason that those numbers are so bad. He doesn't really provide much evidence as to why he believes that but based on how the article was setup I suspect that he means the tactics following these set plays, which he dug into previously.

It has to mean something is wrong. I can't see any advantage to a disproportionate number of defensive zone faceoffs. Sounds like playing with fire, if you ask me.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #2008 by Thomas Malthus » Fri May 04, 2018 7:28 pm

I agree with you, cawbber.

If you believe that the Leafs are trading more low danger chances for fewer high danger ones by playing a primarily stretch pass driven offense instead of the short passes through the neutral zone offense it becomes a question of whether or not the higher quality chances outweigh those costs—most likely losing territorial battle since stretch passes tend to generate fewer shots per entry than other zone entries, those additional defensive zone faceoffs from the icings, etc.

Based on the Dellow piece we're currently talking about and his piece from earlier in the season looking at our Corsi woes and another recent one where he explicitly talks about evaluating tactics before making trades, really do make it seem like something's broken and hints that perhaps those benefits aren't outweighing the costs. On top of those articles, Ian Tulloch has a piece from a while ago that points out the Leafs are much better on the road than at home, which he attributes to Babs' lineup decisions and line matching decisions. It sure looks like there's some smoking guns on the tactical/coaching side of things.

I'm actually more concerned if things aren't broken and that this is the system working as intended. Because if things aren't broken, how does this team push itself into Cup contender territory? Right now it sure seems like the parts are greater than their sum and it's tough to win multiple championships like that.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #2009 by Philthy Thrillz » Fri May 04, 2018 7:40 pm

Easy fix, get better passers. Gardiner also needs to make better decisions but I'm not sure if that's possible.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #2010 by Philthy Thrillz » Fri May 04, 2018 8:13 pm

IMO, Gardiner needs to play with speed. He should be slicing and dicing the neutral zone everytime he has the puck. That's his strength, his agility and speed. He spends way too much time thinking about what he should do with it. Skate Skate Skate FFS. And if they are going to make the drop pass, Gards should be on the recieving end, his timing sucks on those.

I like Gards, but Claw is right.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #2011 by AGENT ZERO » Fri May 04, 2018 11:04 pm

Philthy Thrillz wrote:What is a micro-dose, two grams?


Its like .2 grams to .4 grams
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #2012 by paulster » Sat May 05, 2018 9:29 am

You're supposed to casually eat shrooms like potato chips out of a bag until they kick in. At least, that's how we did it up in Muskoka 18 years ago.

If you live in BC, then yeah - measure that shit and go slow. Those glowing purple things are INTENSE. And stay out of the bathroom - there's too much shit to look at in there.

Fuck now I want to do shrooms again.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #2013 by AGENT ZERO » Sat May 05, 2018 11:04 am

[youtube][/youtube]
paulster wrote:You're supposed to casually eat shrooms like potato chips out of a bag until they kick in. At least, that's how we did it up in Muskoka 18 years ago.

If you live in BC, then yeah - measure that shit and go slow. Those glowing purple things are INTENSE. And stay out of the bathroom - there's too much shit to look at in there.

Fuck now I want to do shrooms again.


It depends on what you are going for. If you are looking for a trip then by all means go hero dose or take DMT. Microdosing doesnt give you a hallucination, the best way i cam describe it is that it allows you to feel like the grass is greener, and not just for a couple of hours or days either. It can last months.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #2014 by MonkeyWrench » Sat May 05, 2018 11:54 am

Months? AZ has had experience with some prime tyme stuff!
Have never tried it straight up myself. It was always incorporated/mixed with something else. Like chocolate. Or Pizza.
Have never gone deep, but the amount I tried had me seeing a ghost outside the window that wanted to come inside.
:vince:
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #2015 by Curry Rage » Sat May 05, 2018 12:25 pm

Wait until you're the ghost. And the guy inside.



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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #2016 by Curry Rage » Sat May 05, 2018 12:26 pm

Did some mushrooms back in the day. They weren't my favorite. I get a bit achy and nauseous on them. Was a bigger fan of LSD.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #2017 by AGENT ZERO » Sat May 05, 2018 3:05 pm

MonkeyWrench wrote:Months? AZ has had experience with some prime tyme stuff!
Have never tried it straight up myself. It was always incorporated/mixed with something else. Like chocolate. Or Pizza.
Have never gone deep, but the amount I tried had me seeing a ghost outside the window that wanted to come inside.
:vince:


I took .2 grams of psilocybin mushrooms for a week straight and then it had the aforementioned effect.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #2018 by AGENT ZERO » Sat May 05, 2018 3:06 pm

Curry Rage wrote:Did some mushrooms back in the day. They weren't my favorite. I get a bit achy and nauseous on them. Was a bigger fan of LSD.


How was your experience of LSD if you dont mind my asking?
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #2019 by Philthy Thrillz » Sat May 05, 2018 4:21 pm

Had a guy throw a quater pound down on the table and its was an all you can eat buffet. That party was fucked. Good times. No fights, arrests, and no one tried to fly off the 6th floor.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #2020 by cawbber » Sat May 05, 2018 4:47 pm

AGENT ZERO wrote:
Curry Rage wrote:Did some mushrooms back in the day. They weren't my favorite. I get a bit achy and nauseous on them. Was a bigger fan of LSD.


How was your experience of LSD if you dont mind my asking?

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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #2021 by clawfirst » Sat May 05, 2018 5:00 pm

It's sorta like what you already know az without that god damn feeling of forgetting what you are supposed to be doing and just enjoying the ride....so more like the decent euphoria of the mush with more visuals
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #2022 by clawfirst » Sat May 05, 2018 5:00 pm

I mean....ive heard its kinda sorta like that from a friend
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #2023 by clawfirst » Sat May 05, 2018 5:01 pm

That fungus stuff is cool for going and doing something ..like sports
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #2024 by paulster » Sat May 05, 2018 5:38 pm

In BC we were right fucked and ended up watching a TLC documentary on these two chicks Lori and Dori who were joined at the head. My god we came up with some hilarious shit watching that. To this day ive never laughed harder.

I could also make the ceiling go up and down with my breath so that was fun as well.

BC mushroom tea. Jesus Christ that’s some powerful stuff.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #2025 by Curry Rage » Sat May 05, 2018 8:39 pm

AGENT ZERO wrote:
Curry Rage wrote:Did some mushrooms back in the day. They weren't my favorite. I get a bit achy and nauseous on them. Was a bigger fan of LSD.


How was your experience of LSD if you dont mind my asking?


Which one?

Seriously, though, LSD starts off fun the first few times. All giggles and sparkling piss. Lots of little "Aha!" moments. Then, as you up the ante, it can become work. Had some of the most poignant experiences of my life as well as some very difficult ones. Made it back okay, I think. Would do it again now.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #2026 by Curry Rage » Sat May 05, 2018 8:40 pm

clawfirst wrote:It's sorta like what you already know az without that god damn feeling of forgetting what you are supposed to be doing and just enjoying the ride....so more like the decent euphoria of the mush with more visuals


I don't suppose you did large doses. I've ended up on the other end of town and not known what possessed me to leave the place I was at. "Came to" walking down the center of Davenport Road at stupid o'clock in the morning once. Realised I was trouble to myself and managed to make a call for help from a payphone.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #2027 by Curry Rage » Sat May 05, 2018 8:40 pm

cawbber wrote:
AGENT ZERO wrote:
Curry Rage wrote:Did some mushrooms back in the day. They weren't my favorite. I get a bit achy and nauseous on them. Was a bigger fan of LSD.


How was your experience of LSD if you dont mind my asking?

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Yup.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #2028 by clawfirst » Sat May 05, 2018 8:59 pm

Curry Rage wrote:
clawfirst wrote:It's sorta like what you already know az without that god damn feeling of forgetting what you are supposed to be doing and just enjoying the ride....so more like the decent euphoria of the mush with more visuals


I don't suppose you did large doses. I've ended up on the other end of town and not known what possessed me to leave the place I was at. "Came to" walking down the center of Davenport Road at stupid o'clock in the morning once. Realised I was trouble to myself and managed to make a call for help from a payphone.

Clearly not as large as you..lol
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #2029 by Thomas Malthus » Sat May 05, 2018 9:27 pm

So according to Friedman Babcock is going to visit Matthews' home in Arizona to iron things out.

Update: Babs also going to see Freddie in Denmark.

I don't really see why this is a story. Doesn't Babs keep in touch with his guys over the summer? I'm pretty sure he's mentioned it before. Starting to get annoyed with Friedman a bit, his opinions on the game are rough he's becoming essentially a gossip columnist, stoking those flames where he can find them.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #2030 by MonkeyWrench » Sat May 05, 2018 11:38 pm

Thomas Malthus wrote:So according to Friedman Babcock is going to visit Matthews' home in Arizona to iron things out.

Update: Babs also going to see Freddie in Denmark.

I don't really see why this is a story. Doesn't Babs keep in touch with his guys over the summer? I'm pretty sure he's mentioned it before. Starting to get annoyed with Friedman a bit, his opinions on the game are rough he's becoming essentially a gossip columnist, stoking those flames where he can find them.


I'm kind of annoyed you even brought up "why is this a story" about a non story.
Talking heads just making noise about the leafs.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #2031 by Curry Rage » Sun May 06, 2018 10:11 am

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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #2032 by mooseOAK » Wed May 09, 2018 9:38 am

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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #2033 by Curry Rage » Wed May 09, 2018 2:46 pm

He's a bit mean and can skate from what I've seen.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #2034 by Thomas Malthus » Wed May 09, 2018 5:15 pm

Tulloch has a new piece at The Athletic looking at some potential RHD targets (there will be a follow up piece tomorrow looking at some others). He does a quick little blurb going through the pros and cons for each player or group of similar players. He looks at Hamilton, Carlson, Trouba, Ellis, Hjalmarsson, and Tanev. The quick and dirty is that Trouba and Ellis probably aren't available despite some smoke around them. Hamilton is the most likely to be dealt but it's hard not to think that the ask will be Marner or Nylander or that the package will rob us of our depth. Hjalmarsson and Tanev are two of the best defensive defenseman in the league and according to the goals above replacement metric he uses they are both top pairing guys. The concern is injury and age related, though neither has a ton of term left on their existing deals.

Dellow has a nice piece on Carlson whgre he breaks down Carlson powerplay production and notes that Carlson isn't doing anything exceptional here other than getting Ovi the puck. That's not to say that Carlson couldn't drive a powerplay but we can't tell how good he'd be on a powerplay without Ovi and he almost certainly won't be putting up similar numbers to this year anywhere else. Tulloch's piece discusses Carlson's even strength stats and he thinks the numbers undersell Carlson a bit because he's been paired with Alzner and Orpik a lot which really messes things up. He's going to be expensive, but it's tough to tell if he'll be worth it.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #2035 by LeafOfBread » Wed May 09, 2018 6:15 pm

^ looks pretty bleak. Hopefully management can pull a rabbit out of their hat.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #2036 by Thomas Malthus » Wed May 09, 2018 7:14 pm

I'd be okay with Hjalmarsson as a stop gap measure while we wait for Tim and a shot at Doughty/Karlsson. He has one year left on his contract but I wouldn't really want to pay a whole lot for him though because the downside risk is real. I'm still pretty high on Pysyk (who has two years left).

I have this pipe dream where we trade Zaitsev for one of those guys because Arizona needs players that will be around for a while and nobody wants to sign there, or because Tallon loves players like Zaitsev. He's cut from that Dave Bolland cloth.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #2037 by LeafOfBread » Thu May 10, 2018 2:26 pm

mooseOAK wrote:Leafs might be signing this RHD:

https://www.tsn.ca/milstein-noncommitta ... -1.1080311

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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #2038 by Curry Rage » Thu May 10, 2018 2:50 pm

Perhaps waiting on Shanny's GM decision, or at least a nod that whoever is in charge will want him as Lou did.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #2039 by Philthy Thrillz » Thu May 10, 2018 4:11 pm

Just hire Hunter and get on with it.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #2040 by Curry Rage » Thu May 10, 2018 5:50 pm

Philthy Thrillz wrote:Just hire Hunter and get on with it.


There's some sort of function for estimating the number of squint panties that will twist over that but I don't give a shit to know it.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #2041 by vf » Thu May 10, 2018 6:48 pm

I don't what will create more twisting. Dubas being snubbed for old school Hunter or Dubas getting the nod and revealing himself to not be a super squint.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #2042 by Curry Rage » Thu May 10, 2018 7:08 pm

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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #2043 by Philthy Thrillz » Thu May 10, 2018 7:52 pm

vf wrote:I don't what will create more twisting. Dubas being snubbed for old school Hunter or Dubas getting the nod and revealing himself to not be a super squint.


You'd think that would be obvious.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #2044 by Thomas Malthus » Thu May 10, 2018 8:28 pm

That Dubas isn't a super squint?

Also, I'm kind of skeptical about the whole "Dubas is going to leave if he isn't hired" thing. Guys like Futa, Fenton, and Brisebois have had their names tossed around for every GM opening for the past few years and none of them have moved on. The point being, they've all apprenticed at very good organizations their time and have been very serious candidates for openings but still did not get them. Isn't it a little funny to think that Dubas, who has spent not a whole lot of time as an apprentice would be such a hot commodity over those guys who are already fairly hot commodities? There aren't that many positions out there and I'm sure Dubas would rather stick around to learn from someone that Shanahan thinks is better than the heir apparent rather than jump ship to the first organization to offer him a job (part of the reason those guys haven't moved on is because they don't want to walk into an unwinnable situation and subsequently get blacklisted from the league). Like I think Dubas seems to be progressive and have a good hockey mind and track record of success so far but can we please cool it before painting him as the second coming of Yzerman or Bowman (if you want to go there) or some shit?
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #2045 by cawbber » Thu May 10, 2018 10:09 pm

Thomas Malthus wrote:That Dubas isn't a super squint?

Also, I'm kind of skeptical about the whole "Dubas is going to leave if he isn't hired" thing. Guys like Futa, Fenton, and Brisebois have had their names tossed around for every GM opening for the past few years and none of them have moved on. The point being, they've all apprenticed at very good organizations their time and have been very serious candidates for openings but still did not get them. Isn't it a little funny to think that Dubas, who has spent not a whole lot of time as an apprentice would be such a hot commodity over those guys who are already fairly hot commodities? There aren't that many positions out there and I'm sure Dubas would rather stick around to learn from someone that Shanahan thinks is better than the heir apparent rather than jump ship to the first organization to offer him a job (part of the reason those guys haven't moved on is because they don't want to walk into an unwinnable situation and subsequently get blacklisted from the league). Like I think Dubas seems to be progressive and have a good hockey mind and track record of success so far but can we please cool it before painting him as the second coming of Yzerman or Bowman (if you want to go there) or some shit?

Pretty sure that's a media narrative, Tommy.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #2046 by stoney » Fri May 11, 2018 9:08 am

Dubas it is boys.
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #2047 by WTF » Fri May 11, 2018 9:08 am



Confirmed.
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Thomas Malthus
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #2048 by Thomas Malthus » Fri May 11, 2018 9:52 am

:ferreturbation: Looks like it’s now the onseason, boys.
"If you torture the data long enough, it will confess to anything." - Ronald Coase
"[...]all models are wrong, some are useful." - George E. P. Box
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Transplanted Caper
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #2049 by Transplanted Caper » Fri May 11, 2018 9:54 am

TIME TO OVERREACT, EITHER PRO OR CON, ONE WAY OR ANOTHER.

PICK A FUCKING LANE, LADS.
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cawbber
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Re: ongoing 2017-2018 season discussion

Post #2050 by cawbber » Fri May 11, 2018 11:51 am

Transplanted Caper wrote:TIME TO OVERREACT, EITHER PRO OR CON, ONE WAY OR ANOTHER.

PICK A FUCKING LANE, LADS.

PRO DUBIE!

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