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Re: Buy low trade options for this offseason

Posted: Mon May 14, 2018 11:57 am
by Curry Rage
I don't see any point moving Gardiner.

Re: Buy low trade options for this offseason

Posted: Mon May 14, 2018 12:23 pm
by AGENT ZERO
The dream off-season for me is signing JT, trading for Pysyk/Tanev and promoting: Holl, Leivo, Altonen/Lindholm and Sparks next season.

Hyman - Matthews - Nylander
Johnsson - Tavares - Brown
Marleau - Kadri - Marner
Leivo - Altonen - Kapanen

Rielly - Pysyk
Gardiner - Zaitsev
Dermott - Hainsey
Holl

Andersen
Sparks

Re: Buy low trade options for this offseason

Posted: Mon May 14, 2018 12:24 pm
by AGENT ZERO
Curry Rage wrote:I don't see any point moving Gardiner.


It's funny because most of the people pushing this agenda also acknowledge that the Leafs need to upgrade defensively. Not pointing the finger at you PT, making a lateral move for a RHD makes sense though I don't think it's realistic without downgrading.

Re: Buy low trade options for this offseason

Posted: Mon May 14, 2018 12:56 pm
by Thomas Malthus
I think Gardiner is a very good defenseman and a very reasonable contract. The problem is that he's only got one more year left and that's going to take a big chunk of his value with him. Anyone who's trading for one year of Gardiner is probably a contender and isn't likely to be interested in giving up a top four defender in return. Because they are in such short supply, an equally valuable righty is probably a worse player than Jake (I think this is AZ's point).

That said, even for a slight downgrade on Jake I might consider moving him because a) the drop off from Gardiner to Dermott might not be a large as the gain from Hainsey to the new player since the right side is starting from such a shitty position the marginal benefit to its improvement is significant; and b) multiple years of a slightly less good right D on a reasonable contract ma be more valuable than one more season of Gardiner (depending on which Jake you think shows up next year, the length of the incoming payer's contract, and how large of a drop off in talent there is). I would also consider moving Jake for a package if it included a guy like Andersson/Fox/Honka as the main piece coming back.

Also, pulingl Mascherin from Florida and ink him to an ELC so that he doesn't go back into the draft would be a pretty good move.

Re: Buy low trade options for this offseason

Posted: Mon May 14, 2018 3:24 pm
by Curry Rage
I think we'll probably see him get another contract here. Why would they want to drop a guy they've put that much time into and looks nice on the stat sheet? And why would he want to fuck off elsewhere for money just when this team is getting good. He drives me nuts sometimes, but I recognise the contribution he makes.

Re: Buy low trade options for this offseason

Posted: Mon May 14, 2018 3:31 pm
by Whit Dickman
I don't see why it's a foregone conclusion for Jake to walk after next year

Re: Buy low trade options for this offseason

Posted: Mon May 14, 2018 3:37 pm
by Curry Rage
Whit Dickman wrote:I don't see why it's a foregone conclusion for Jake to walk after next year


I didn't mean to suggest that if I did. I meant that I don't see them trading him and I see him re-signing given the terms can be settled.

Re: Buy low trade options for this offseason

Posted: Mon May 14, 2018 3:50 pm
by mooseOAK
Whit Dickman wrote:I don't see why it's a foregone conclusion for Jake to walk after next year

We all need a reason to live.

Re: Buy low trade options for this offseason

Posted: Mon May 14, 2018 4:18 pm
by Philthy Thrillz
paulster wrote:Re-up Lupul.


I think Gardiner is held in much higher regard among GMs than here. I bet he could land a solid return.


That would be great.

Re: Buy low trade options for this offseason

Posted: Mon May 14, 2018 4:39 pm
by Philthy Thrillz
AGENT ZERO wrote:
Curry Rage wrote:I don't see any point moving Gardiner.


It's funny because most of the people pushing this agenda also acknowledge that the Leafs need to upgrade defensively. Not pointing the finger at you PT, making a lateral move for a RHD makes sense though I don't think it's realistic without downgrading.


I want a shuffling of the chairs kind of trade. In terms of value anyway. We also have a plethora of wingers to turn the "downgrade" into an "upgrade".

The biggest need easily for the Leafs, is a partner for Mo. Even if the player isn't quite as good, it could make Mo that much better.

I do think Gards holds enough value to get a good partner for Mo. (With a small add) I'd aim for a righty maybe overpaid by a little bit, with 2-4 years of term.

Dermott will replace Gardiner

Re: Buy low trade options for this offseason

Posted: Mon May 14, 2018 4:41 pm
by Philthy Thrillz
A mean prick that can skate and has a good first pass.

Re: Buy low trade options for this offseason

Posted: Mon May 14, 2018 4:46 pm
by AGENT ZERO
Whit Dickman wrote:I don't see why it's a foregone conclusion for Jake to walk after next year


I think some of us are working under the dream scenario that a high priced RHD/JT will be added meaning someone has to go, and given the emergence of Dermott and the fact that Gardiner has only 1 year left it makes sense that he would be the one to walk. Of course if no marquee players are added it makes 0 sense not to re-sign him.

Re: Buy low trade options for this offseason

Posted: Mon May 14, 2018 4:55 pm
by AGENT ZERO
Philthy Thrillz wrote:
AGENT ZERO wrote:
Curry Rage wrote:I don't see any point moving Gardiner.


It's funny because most of the people pushing this agenda also acknowledge that the Leafs need to upgrade defensively. Not pointing the finger at you PT, making a lateral move for a RHD makes sense though I don't think it's realistic without downgrading.


I want a shuffling of the chairs kind of trade. In terms of value anyway. We also have a plethora of wingers to turn the "downgrade" into an "upgrade".

The biggest need easily for the Leafs, is a partner for Mo. Even if the player isn't quite as good, it could make Mo that much better.

I do think Gards holds enough value to get a good partner for Mo. (With a small add) I'd aim for a righty maybe overpaid by a little bit, with 2-4 years of term.

Dermott will replace Gardiner


That's fair, though I think it will be hard with Gardiner's term. Stranger things have happened though.

Re: Buy low trade options for this offseason

Posted: Mon May 14, 2018 10:19 pm
by Philthy Thrillz
AGENT ZERO wrote:
Philthy Thrillz wrote:
AGENT ZERO wrote:
It's funny because most of the people pushing this agenda also acknowledge that the Leafs need to upgrade defensively. Not pointing the finger at you PT, making a lateral move for a RHD makes sense though I don't think it's realistic without downgrading.


I want a shuffling of the chairs kind of trade. In terms of value anyway. We also have a plethora of wingers to turn the "downgrade" into an "upgrade".

The biggest need easily for the Leafs, is a partner for Mo. Even if the player isn't quite as good, it could make Mo that much better.

I do think Gards holds enough value to get a good partner for Mo. (With a small add) I'd aim for a righty maybe overpaid by a little bit, with 2-4 years of term.

Dermott will replace Gardiner


That's fair, though I think it will be hard with Gardiner's term. Stranger things have happened though.



Ya that's a concern. Maybe there's a scenario where a rebuilding team wouldn't mind dumping some salary, or better yet a cap team.

Any cap teams with too many right d?

At the draft we could do a Gardiner+Bracco+pick

Re: Buy low trade options for this offseason

Posted: Tue May 15, 2018 12:22 pm
by Thomas Malthus
Apparently everyone on Carolina is available except Aho.

TvR actually looks like a pretty good player who could be somewhat inexpensive.

Re: Buy low trade options for this offseason

Posted: Tue May 15, 2018 1:04 pm
by AGENT ZERO
Slavin please, he will cost alot, but i still think it will be less than hes actually worth. That is the #1 D we need and he is cost controlled. I would probably even flip Nylander for him although I would obviously push for a package deal instead.

Re: Buy low trade options for this offseason

Posted: Tue May 15, 2018 1:49 pm
by Philthy Thrillz
I wouldn't trade Willy. We have a chance at getting him on an avv around 6 mill. That could be huge for us. Too risky.

Re: Buy low trade options for this offseason

Posted: Tue May 15, 2018 2:53 pm
by AGENT ZERO
Philthy Thrillz wrote:I wouldn't trade Willy. We have a chance at getting him on an avv around 6 mill. That could be huge for us. Too risky.


Slavin is one of the best defenders in hockey, and massively underrated. If he played for the Leafs he would be talked about like Vlasic. Pesce is really good too, and plays the right side. If I were Dubas I would be making calls on both.

Re: Buy low trade options for this offseason

Posted: Tue May 15, 2018 2:55 pm
by AGENT ZERO
Also Slavin is signed for 5.3M for the next 7 years. Only Mark Schiefele has a better contract IMO.

Re: Buy low trade options for this offseason

Posted: Tue May 15, 2018 3:47 pm
by Curry Rage
Much like Pickles, I don't look at a guy like that as a #1. Not enough offensive juice. Obviously a great player to have.

Re: Buy low trade options for this offseason

Posted: Tue May 15, 2018 4:16 pm
by Philthy Thrillz
Willy is gonna go beast mode. I see a Kadri like progression with Willy. On another tier. Kessel potential.

Re: Buy low trade options for this offseason

Posted: Tue May 15, 2018 4:20 pm
by AGENT ZERO
Curry Rage wrote:Much like Pickles, I don't look at a guy like that as a #1. Not enough offensive juice. Obviously a great player to have.


Slavin may not put up the raw point totals, but he drives play like a #1 at ES.

Re: Buy low trade options for this offseason

Posted: Tue May 15, 2018 4:26 pm
by Curry Rage
Usually when people say "drives play" they're talking about Corsiwicks. I would be vary wary of taking anyone on CAR using Corsiwicks as my prime mode of evaluation given that the team was historically very good at that under Peters. But, despite that, they didn't score or win much. The old cause and effect problem.

Re: Buy low trade options for this offseason

Posted: Tue May 15, 2018 4:55 pm
by Thomas Malthus
I like Slavin and it seems that his defensive metrics show well. He put up 30 points while getting like 30 seconds of PP time a night, that's like Rielly last year. The GAR and WAR metrics have Slavin as being marginally better or worse than Rielly depending on which one you use (and marginally better or a lot better than Gardiner). If Dermott's next season is just 82 games of him playing like he did in his stint with the Leafs then Slavin would be marginally better than Dermott and Dermott would be right around Gardiner and Rielly.

All of that to say, unless you're planning on playing Rielly or Dermott on their weak sides why trade for Slavin? Especially when there are bargain guys out there to be had. I'd explore it but I'm not a fan of moving Nylander for him. Aside from Nylander having more to give, another reason to be wary about trading him right now is that if he can play centre his value is much higher. On top of that, the right side is bad, no question but so is our centre depth. Losing Nylander hurts our centre depth and flexibility even more, especially if we don't land Tavares.

Re: Buy low trade options for this offseason

Posted: Tue May 15, 2018 5:07 pm
by Curry Rage
Well, yeah. I didn't even want to get into the lunacy of moving Nylander now.

Re: Buy low trade options for this offseason

Posted: Tue May 15, 2018 5:41 pm
by LeafOfBread
Curry Rage wrote:Usually when people say "drives play" they're talking about Corsiwicks. I would be vary wary of taking anyone on CAR using Corsiwicks as my prime mode of evaluation given that the team was historically very good at that under Peters. But, despite that, they didn't score or win much. The old cause and effect problem.

IMO Carolina was one more star forward and decent goalie away from becoming at least a playoff team. They invested in Darling and it failed miserably.

Re: Buy low trade options for this offseason

Posted: Tue May 15, 2018 10:41 pm
by paulster
Philthy Thrillz wrote:Willy is gonna go beast mode. I see a Kadri like progression with Willy. On another tier. Kessel potential.


Best Leaf playmaker since Mitch Marner.

Re: Buy low trade options for this offseason

Posted: Wed May 16, 2018 12:39 am
by Whit Dickman
No way we can afford to lose JVR, Bozie, AND Nylander in one off season. Not happening.

I'd rather Pesce

Re: Buy low trade options for this offseason

Posted: Wed May 16, 2018 8:07 am
by AGENT ZERO
Carolina is way deeper on the left side, but if Pesce can be had for a reasonable price by all means.

Re: Buy low trade options for this offseason

Posted: Wed May 16, 2018 10:47 am
by Whit Dickman
What about Faulk? He seems the most likely to move and the cheapest

Re: Buy low trade options for this offseason

Posted: Wed May 16, 2018 11:28 am
by AGENT ZERO
Whit Dickman wrote:What about Faulk? He seems the most likely to move and the cheapest


The problem with Faulk is that he is nearing FA, and is more of what we already have. An offensive minded defenceman who struggles away from the puck.

Re: Buy low trade options for this offseason

Posted: Wed May 16, 2018 10:29 pm
by cawbber
Curry Rage wrote:Much like Pickles, I don't look at a guy like that as a #1. Not enough offensive juice. Obviously a great player to have.

Pickles are delicious

Re: Buy low trade options for this offseason

Posted: Wed May 16, 2018 10:30 pm
by cawbber
AGENT ZERO wrote:Also Slavin is signed for 5.3M for the next 7 years. Only Mark Schiefele has a better contract IMO.

Only future Leafs John Tavares and Erik Karlsson had better contracts

Re: Buy low trade options for this offseason

Posted: Wed May 16, 2018 11:25 pm
by AGENT ZERO
cawbber wrote:
AGENT ZERO wrote:Also Slavin is signed for 5.3M for the next 7 years. Only Mark Schiefele has a better contract IMO.

Only future Leafs John Tavares and Erik Karlsson had better contracts


Facts

Re: Buy low trade options for this offseason

Posted: Mon Jun 25, 2018 5:42 pm
by Thomas Malthus
Let's just use this as the entire offseason thread instead of making a new one.

Saw an article on Leafs Nation about taking back Ryan to get Karlsson. Author seemed to think Ryan wasn't that bad. I'd say that a huge risk to take on. If you buy him out right away you're stuck with 8 years of Ryan payments. If you wait then you've got over $7M in dead cap space unless you think our sports science team and Babs can revive him. Plus, Karlsson might not even re-sign. Not sure I want anything to do with that train wreck. Unless...we negotiate a Karlsson extension beforehand and they take Zaitsev back?

Re: Buy low trade options for this offseason

Posted: Mon Jun 25, 2018 7:30 pm
by AGENT ZERO
If Karlsson wants to be a Leaf he can wait a year. Zero interest in taking Ryan back.

Re: Buy low trade options for this offseason

Posted: Mon Jun 25, 2018 7:44 pm
by Honus Joglund
Gene wouldn't let Dorion trade Hoffman inside the division. Zero chance he lets him trade Karlsson to his most hated rival.

Re: Buy low trade options for this offseason

Posted: Mon Jun 25, 2018 7:50 pm
by WTF
Honus Joglund wrote:Gene wouldn't let Dorion trade Hoffman inside the division. Zero chance he lets him trade Karlsson to his most hated rival.


Point in our favour, if Karlsson really wants to piss off Scrooge Melnyk? Wait it out until he hits UFA status and then sign here. Sure, some of the Sens fans will boo him in Ottawa but he's played enough games in Kanata to know that it's basically our second home rink so it won't be that bad.

Re: Buy low trade options for this offseason

Posted: Mon Jun 25, 2018 10:59 pm
by Thomas Malthus
WTF wrote:
Honus Joglund wrote:Gene wouldn't let Dorion trade Hoffman inside the division. Zero chance he lets him trade Karlsson to his most hated rival.


Point in our favour, if Karlsson really wants to piss off Scrooge Melnyk? Wait it out until he hits UFA status and then sign here. Sure, some of the Sens fans will boo him in Ottawa but he's played enough games in Kanata to know that it's basically our second home rink so it won't be that bad.


It would be pretty amazing to see the Sens fans compete with boos against the Leafs fans cheering Karlsson every time he touched the puck. Would be legendary.

Re: Buy low trade options for this offseason

Posted: Tue Jun 26, 2018 11:21 am
by vf
Thomas Malthus wrote:Let's just use this as the entire offseason thread instead of making a new one.

Saw an article on Leafs Nation about taking back Ryan to get Karlsson. Author seemed to think Ryan wasn't that bad. I'd say that a huge risk to take on. If you buy him out right away you're stuck with 8 years of Ryan payments. If you wait then you've got over $7M in dead cap space unless you think our sports science team and Babs can revive him. Plus, Karlsson might not even re-sign. Not sure I want anything to do with that train wreck. Unless...we negotiate a Karlsson extension beforehand and they take Zaitsev back?


Zaitsev>>>>>>>>>Ryan In 16/17 Zaitsev had more points then Ryan and if we're betting which one has the better chance at rebounding into form regardless of contract status I know who I'm putting my money on.

Re: Buy low trade options for this offseason

Posted: Sun Jul 01, 2018 7:40 pm
by AGENT ZERO
AGENT ZERO wrote:The dream off-season for me is signing JT, trading for Pysyk/Tanev and promoting: Holl, Leivo, Altonen/Lindholm and Sparks next season.

Hyman - Matthews - Nylander
Johnsson - Tavares - Brown
Marleau - Kadri - Marner
Leivo - Altonen - Kapanen

Rielly - Pysyk
Gardiner - Zaitsev
Dermott - Hainsey
Holl

Andersen
Sparks


Almost there fellas

Re: Buy low trade options for this offseason

Posted: Mon Jul 02, 2018 3:49 pm
by paulster
paulster wrote:John Tavares


Got him “low.”

Jussayin’

Re: Buy low trade options for this offseason

Posted: Mon Jul 02, 2018 5:49 pm
by Thomas Malthus
How do we feel about de Haan? Does anyone know if he can play the left side? I read some comments from a NYI fan saying that he played a bit of right side with Leddy but I have no idea how long that was for.

His zone stats seem to show that over the past two seasons he's been about as good at defending the blueline as Zaitsev but much better at transitioning the puck and entering the offensive zone. His CF% and xGF% relative to his teammates were good and he played with pretty shit quality of teammates while facing softer competition but similar zone starts to Zaitsev and Hainsey.

He seems like he'd be an upgrade on Zaitsev and Hainsey but if he's playing on his strong side and we move him to the left then some of that upgrade gets eaten up. Maybe he plays on the left side while we move Rielly over to play beside Jake?

Re: Buy low trade options for this offseason

Posted: Mon Jul 02, 2018 6:21 pm
by Curry Rage
Do these stats on "defending the blue line" take any stock of how a team plays?

Re: Buy low trade options for this offseason

Posted: Mon Jul 02, 2018 6:37 pm
by AGENT ZERO
Thomas Malthus wrote:How do we feel about de Haan? Does anyone know if he can play the left side? I read some comments from a NYI fan saying that he played a bit of right side with Leddy but I have no idea how long that was for.

His zone stats seem to show that over the past two seasons he's been about as good at defending the blueline as Zaitsev but much better at transitioning the puck and entering the offensive zone. His CF% and xGF% relative to his teammates were good and he played with pretty shit quality of teammates while facing softer competition but similar zone starts to Zaitsev and Hainsey.

He seems like he'd be an upgrade on Zaitsev and Hainsey but if he's playing on his strong side and we move him to the left then some of that upgrade gets eaten up. Maybe he plays on the left side while we move Rielly over to play beside Jake?


I really like him, he is a good second pairing guy that can defend and move the puck. His underlying numbers are strong, according to Isles fans he passes the eye test and there seems to be a disconnect between his production and perceived value which means that he can potentially be had for a bargain.

Re: Buy low trade options for this offseason

Posted: Mon Jul 02, 2018 6:48 pm
by AGENT ZERO
My only concern with De Haan is his health. He has struggled with shoulder issues even dating back to his time with the Oshawa Generals. Still, at the right price I think he provides good depth and insurance in the event that Gardiner prices himself out of the Leafs plans.

Re: Buy low trade options for this offseason

Posted: Mon Jul 02, 2018 7:52 pm
by Thomas Malthus
Curry Rage wrote:Do these stats on "defending the blue line" take any stock of how a team plays?


Nope. So, it's entirely possible that a team has instructed their D to be more or less aggressive at the blue line and we're seeing that in the numbers. Like, I'm not sure how a guy like Marincin would look for example because he never stood anyone up but used his reach to keep guys wide. That said, I'd rather a guy not enter the zone at all rather than keep him wide. Of course there's limitations to the stats (including that they are usually based on like a dozen or so games) but I still think they're quite useful.

Re: Buy low trade options for this offseason

Posted: Tue Jul 03, 2018 1:19 am
by LeafOfBread
AGENT ZERO wrote:
Thomas Malthus wrote:How do we feel about de Haan? Does anyone know if he can play the left side? I read some comments from a NYI fan saying that he played a bit of right side with Leddy but I have no idea how long that was for.

His zone stats seem to show that over the past two seasons he's been about as good at defending the blueline as Zaitsev but much better at transitioning the puck and entering the offensive zone. His CF% and xGF% relative to his teammates were good and he played with pretty shit quality of teammates while facing softer competition but similar zone starts to Zaitsev and Hainsey.

He seems like he'd be an upgrade on Zaitsev and Hainsey but if he's playing on his strong side and we move him to the left then some of that upgrade gets eaten up. Maybe he plays on the left side while we move Rielly over to play beside Jake?


I really like him, he is a good second pairing guy that can defend and move the puck. His underlying numbers are strong, according to Isles fans he passes the eye test and there seems to be a disconnect between his production and perceived value which means that he can potentially be had for a bargain.

I'm not sure he can be had for a bargain. There's not really much D available and he's probably the best of the group of I'm not mistaken.

Re: Buy low trade options for this offseason

Posted: Tue Jul 03, 2018 9:24 am
by AGENT ZERO
LeafOfBread wrote:
AGENT ZERO wrote:
Thomas Malthus wrote:How do we feel about de Haan? Does anyone know if he can play the left side? I read some comments from a NYI fan saying that he played a bit of right side with Leddy but I have no idea how long that was for.

His zone stats seem to show that over the past two seasons he's been about as good at defending the blueline as Zaitsev but much better at transitioning the puck and entering the offensive zone. His CF% and xGF% relative to his teammates were good and he played with pretty shit quality of teammates while facing softer competition but similar zone starts to Zaitsev and Hainsey.

He seems like he'd be an upgrade on Zaitsev and Hainsey but if he's playing on his strong side and we move him to the left then some of that upgrade gets eaten up. Maybe he plays on the left side while we move Rielly over to play beside Jake?


I really like him, he is a good second pairing guy that can defend and move the puck. His underlying numbers are strong, according to Isles fans he passes the eye test and there seems to be a disconnect between his production and perceived value which means that he can potentially be had for a bargain.

I'm not sure he can be had for a bargain. There's not really much D available and he's probably the best of the group of I'm not mistaken.


It seems strange to be undecided this late into the process if he had a lucrative offer on the table. Typically when players last past the first couple of days of FA they sign below market value deals.

Re: Buy low trade options for this offseason

Posted: Tue Jul 03, 2018 9:33 am
by Thomas Malthus
The two contract projections I've seen for him are like $1.7M and $3M+. He's just coming off making $3.3M. There seems to be a lot of interest though, so who knows.