Buy low trade options for this offseason

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Re: Buy low trade options for this offseason

Post #151 by Thomas Malthus » Tue Jul 03, 2018 12:40 pm



Martin getting mucho interest.
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Re: Buy low trade options for this offseason

Post #152 by AGENT ZERO » Wed Jul 04, 2018 12:09 am

Carolina currently has:

Slavin (LD) ... Faulk (RD)
De Haan (LD) ... Hamilton (RD)
Fleury (LD) ... Pesce (RD)
Bean (LD) ... TVR (RD)

TVR for Leivo + pick? Tobias Enstrom is still on the market too, he could make sense on a cheap 2 year deal.
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Re: Buy low trade options for this offseason

Post #153 by Philthy Thrillz » Wed Jul 04, 2018 10:10 am

What Hamilton is that?
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Re: Buy low trade options for this offseason

Post #154 by Thomas Malthus » Wed Jul 04, 2018 10:31 am

I like TvR. I think he's a solid upgrade on Carrick and could play in our top four. I think he's sort of been in a Colin Miller situation in Carolina.
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Re: Buy low trade options for this offseason

Post #155 by AGENT ZERO » Wed Jul 04, 2018 11:39 am

Thomas Malthus wrote:I like TvR. I think he's a solid upgrade on Carrick and could play in our top four. I think he's sort of been in a Colin Miller situation in Carolina.


Agreed, but I think Carolina is far more likely to trade Faulk. He is more expensive, a UFA in 2 years, and will command more in a trade. The guy to go after that I believe can be had is Rasmus Andersson, Connor Brown likely gets it done. Brian Burke was on the fan590 yesterday and said that alot of teams really value Connor Brown, I am guessing his old club (CGY) is one of those teams.
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Re: Buy low trade options for this offseason

Post #156 by Zardoz » Wed Jul 04, 2018 11:53 am

Philthy Thrillz wrote:What Hamilton is that?


It's Dougie. He was dealt for Hanifin at the draft.
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Re: Buy low trade options for this offseason

Post #157 by Thomas Malthus » Wed Jul 04, 2018 12:25 pm

I'm not sure what to make of Faulk. He might be a suitable replacement for Gardiner if we can try to flip Jake for help on the right hand side. I know that Corsica's WAR doesn't like Faulk but based on some other stats (including Chace McCallum's GAR) Faulk looks pretty good. A quick search pulls up Yost taking a shallow pass at this question.

Carolina’s had bad goaltending for years but it certainly appears exacerbated with Faulk on the ice. And although we know that defenders appear to have very little control over the save percentages their team realizes, Faulk’s numbers stick out because (a) they are objectively bad; (b) have been objectively bad for a considerable period of time; and (c) are an exceptional outlier even in comparison to other players with poor numbers.


This strikes me as being really similar to the argument that Dellow made a while back about Karlsson. And no surprise, Karlsson shows up the list of players when Yost is comparing on-ice to team save percentage.

Here's a season in review kind of thing from the Canes' PPP equivalent with an interesting blurb.

The 26-year-old hasn’t performed to the same level since his longtime defensive partner in Ron Hainsey was let go at the 2017 trade deadline.


Faulk spent time this past season with Slavin, Fleury, Hanifinm and Dhalbeck but mainly the first two. he was awful with Fleury, good with Slavin, and meh elsewhere.
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Re: Buy low trade options for this offseason

Post #158 by Philthy Thrillz » Wed Jul 04, 2018 12:57 pm

Zardoz wrote:
Philthy Thrillz wrote:What Hamilton is that?


It's Dougie. He was dealt for Hanifin at the draft.


I missed that trade.
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Re: Buy low trade options for this offseason

Post #159 by vf » Wed Jul 04, 2018 4:49 pm

Thomas Malthus wrote:I'm not sure what to make of Faulk. He might be a suitable replacement for Gardiner if we can try to flip Jake for help on the right hand side. I know that Corsica's WAR doesn't like Faulk but based on some other stats (including Chace McCallum's GAR) Faulk looks pretty good. A quick search pulls up Yost taking a shallow pass at this question.

Carolina’s had bad goaltending for years but it certainly appears exacerbated with Faulk on the ice. And although we know that defenders appear to have very little control over the save percentages their team realizes, Faulk’s numbers stick out because (a) they are objectively bad; (b) have been objectively bad for a considerable period of time; and (c) are an exceptional outlier even in comparison to other players with poor numbers.


This strikes me as being really similar to the argument that Dellow made a while back about Karlsson. And no surprise, Karlsson shows up the list of players when Yost is comparing on-ice to team save percentage.

Here's a season in review kind of thing from the Canes' PPP equivalent with an interesting blurb.

The 26-year-old hasn’t performed to the same level since his longtime defensive partner in Ron Hainsey was let go at the 2017 trade deadline.


Faulk spent time this past season with Slavin, Fleury, Hanifinm and Dhalbeck but mainly the first two. he was awful with Fleury, good with Slavin, and meh elsewhere.


If only we had a Ron Hainsey to make him feel better. :vince:
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Re: Buy low trade options for this offseason

Post #160 by Thomas Malthus » Thu Jul 05, 2018 10:03 am

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Re: Buy low trade options for this offseason

Post #161 by AGENT ZERO » Thu Jul 05, 2018 10:10 am

Even though I think Gardiner is the better player I think it makes sense because of our need on the RS, and because I think Myers can actually be re-upped at around 5.5M whereas I don't believe that Gardiner can.
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Re: Buy low trade options for this offseason

Post #162 by Thomas Malthus » Thu Jul 05, 2018 10:16 am

Image
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Re: Buy low trade options for this offseason

Post #163 by AGENT ZERO » Thu Jul 05, 2018 10:22 am

Whether or not it enables Rosen to enter into the lineup also factors into this. If they do that I think you can make a very compelling argument that we are a better team with Myers, if they shift Hainsey into the third pairing LS role I am less convinced.
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Re: Buy low trade options for this offseason

Post #164 by Thomas Malthus » Thu Jul 05, 2018 10:37 am

AGENT ZERO wrote:Whether or not it enables Rosen to enter into the lineup also factors into this. If they do that I think you can make a very compelling argument that we are a better team with Myers, if they shift Hainsey into the third pairing LS role I am less convinced.


I think Hainsey would be better than Rosen on the third pairing (next season anyways), especially on the left side since players normally are better on their strong side.

Rielly - Myers
Dermott - Zaitsev
Hainsey - Holl/Carrick
Holl/Carrick

I have two issues with that lineup and neither of them have to do with Hainsey playing on the third pairing. First, the move hasn't really helped us defensively since Myers is still pretty shit at defense. The areas of the game that Myers excels in are the same as Rielly, so having them play together might not be great but we know Zaitsev can't play with Rielly so... Second, I have zero confidence right now that Zaitsev is a capable top four defender.

I'm not even sure that we'd be able to keep Myers in the fold after his contract is up. If Myers had another year left on his deal then I'd be happier to consider it. As it stands I'd rather try to bring in a Pysyk, TvR, Honka, or Andersson and flip Gardiner for futures if needed.
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Re: Buy low trade options for this offseason

Post #165 by AGENT ZERO » Thu Jul 05, 2018 10:59 am

Thomas Malthus wrote:
AGENT ZERO wrote:Whether or not it enables Rosen to enter into the lineup also factors into this. If they do that I think you can make a very compelling argument that we are a better team with Myers, if they shift Hainsey into the third pairing LS role I am less convinced.


I think Hainsey would be better than Rosen on the third pairing (next season anyways), especially on the left side since players normally are better on their strong side.

Rielly - Myers
Dermott - Zaitsev
Hainsey - Holl/Carrick
Holl/Carrick

I have two issues with that lineup and neither of them have to do with Hainsey playing on the third pairing. First, the move hasn't really helped us defensively since Myers is still pretty shit at defense. The areas of the game that Myers excels in are the same as Rielly, so having them play together might not be great but we know Zaitsev can't play with Rielly so... Second, I have zero confidence right now that Zaitsev is a capable top four defender.

I'm not even sure that we'd be able to keep Myers in the fold after his contract is up. If Myers had another year left on his deal then I'd be happier to consider it. As it stands I'd rather try to bring in a Pysyk, TvR, Honka, or Andersson and flip Gardiner for futures if needed.


You have more confidence in Hainsey than I do, he just doesn't look like he can keep up anymore. Whereas Rosen looked like he really turned a corner developmentally in the playoffs this season.

As for the rest of your post, we are on the same page. I too prefer all of those options, and am skeptical at best that Zaitsev can be a top 4 D.
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Re: Buy low trade options for this offseason

Post #166 by Whit Dickman » Thu Jul 05, 2018 11:08 am

No way on Myers. Gardiner is better
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Re: Buy low trade options for this offseason

Post #167 by Philthy Thrillz » Thu Jul 05, 2018 11:10 am

Rosen will surprise I think/hope. Maybe I'm a bit bias, as I'm a big fan. I think he has the upside to replace Gards. I also thought Franson was going to turn into a stud.
:rudy:

Rosen's skating and passing are really really really good.
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Re: Buy low trade options for this offseason

Post #168 by AGENT ZERO » Thu Jul 05, 2018 11:42 am

With an offense as good as the Leafs, I am in favor of any defenceman that can get to the puck quick and make a nice pass up to the forwards. Rosen checks both boxes.
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Re: Buy low trade options for this offseason

Post #169 by Philthy Thrillz » Thu Jul 05, 2018 12:28 pm

Especially with Bab's hantayo blow the zone breakout.
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Re: Buy low trade options for this offseason

Post #170 by Zardoz » Thu Jul 05, 2018 7:54 pm

I can't believe I'm about to say this, but Gradiner is way better than Myers. I don't really see the point in downgrading just to get the right sided guys. Someone may have to just suck it up and play the off side. Talent trumps position on D imo.

If it were a latteral move, then sure.
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Re: Buy low trade options for this offseason

Post #171 by MonkeyWrench » Thu Jul 05, 2018 8:28 pm

Zardoz wrote:I can't believe I'm about to say this, but Gradiner is way better than Myers. I don't really see the point in downgrading just to get the right sided guys. Someone may have to just suck it up and play the off side. Talent trumps position on D imo.

If it were a latteral move, then sure.


Dermott has played the offside with the marlies. Mo has played the offside on occasion. There are options there if Carrick does his usual thing of having an express pass to the penalty box. When we really need another PKer.
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Re: Buy low trade options for this offseason

Post #172 by AGENT ZERO » Thu Jul 05, 2018 8:56 pm

Zardoz wrote:I can't believe I'm about to say this, but Gradiner is way better than Myers. I don't really see the point in downgrading just to get the right sided guys. Someone may have to just suck it up and play the off side. Talent trumps position on D imo.

If it were a latteral move, then sure.


I think Gardiner is better too, but that is also why I think he is gone at seaosons end which plays into the trade value, IMO. I think Myers could be convinced to resign for under 6M, I would be pleasantly surprised if Gardiner could.
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Re: Buy low trade options for this offseason

Post #173 by Thomas Malthus » Thu Jul 05, 2018 9:15 pm

Take Jake off the PP this year and replace him with Zaitsev to depress Gardiner's value and pump Z up to trade him.
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Re: Buy low trade options for this offseason

Post #174 by Curry Rage » Fri Jul 06, 2018 4:16 am

Are we letting Gardiner go because we don't want to pay for top-4 talent?
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Re: Buy low trade options for this offseason

Post #175 by AGENT ZERO » Fri Jul 06, 2018 8:17 am

Curry Rage wrote:Are we letting Gardiner go because we don't want to pay for top-4 talent?


Play with the cap calculator and you will see why. Its essentially impossible to make this roster work with Gardiner at 6M or more unless you trade Nylander or go with Sparks instead of Freddie. The other option is to bridge Marner and Nylander, but that would ensure that we lose multiple players in 2 years.
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Re: Buy low trade options for this offseason

Post #176 by Curry Rage » Fri Jul 06, 2018 12:26 pm

Wouldn't that depend on the length of the bridge deals?
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Re: Buy low trade options for this offseason

Post #177 by Thomas Malthus » Fri Jul 06, 2018 12:35 pm

From a recent Mirtle article:

Calvin de Haan’s agent, Andy Scott, confirmed to me earlier this week that the Leafs were in conversations with them about the free-agent defenceman, who ultimately signed a four-year deal for $4.55-million a season in Carolina.

A separate source indicated that GM Kyle Dubas and the Leafs front office are doing some due diligence on Patrick Maroon, one of the best forwards remaining in a thin group of unsigned candidates.
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Re: Buy low trade options for this offseason

Post #178 by AGENT ZERO » Fri Jul 06, 2018 12:59 pm

Curry Rage wrote:Wouldn't that depend on the length of the bridge deals?


Everything I have read suggests that a bridge deal, if it were to happen, would be for 2 years. In Marner's case I suspect he will want to wait till next year before signing anything.
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Re: Buy low trade options for this offseason

Post #179 by Thomas Malthus » Fri Jul 06, 2018 1:13 pm

With Tavares in the mix and taking less I'm hopeful that the gang wants to stick together and that after Nylander is done Dubas & Co. get started with Matthews and Marner. I don't want to pay Mitch for the Johnny T bump he's gonna get in addition to his own development.
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Re: Buy low trade options for this offseason

Post #180 by LeafOfBread » Fri Jul 06, 2018 1:29 pm

Thomas Malthus wrote:With Tavares in the mix and taking less I'm hopeful that the gang wants to stick together and that after Nylander is done Dubas & Co. get started with Matthews and Marner. I don't want to pay Mitch for the Johnny T bump he's gonna get in addition to his own development.

You gotta believe his agent is probably pushing him to wait until next summer though.
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Re: Buy low trade options for this offseason

Post #181 by mooseOAK » Fri Jul 06, 2018 2:44 pm

Mitch Marner is not Warren Young. Tough to shut down a guy who had a Calder Trophy rookie season with Bozak as his centreman.
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Re: Buy low trade options for this offseason

Post #182 by Thomas Malthus » Fri Jul 06, 2018 3:13 pm

For sure Marner wants to wait. I think he gets Draisaitl money if he signs this summer. If he waits he may get Kane money.
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Re: Buy low trade options for this offseason

Post #183 by paulster » Fri Jul 06, 2018 3:14 pm

The Leafs aren’t going to lose their star players. There’s nothing to worry about.
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Re: Buy low trade options for this offseason

Post #184 by Thomas Malthus » Fri Jul 06, 2018 3:17 pm

paulster wrote:The Leafs aren’t going to lose their star players. There’s nothing to worry about.


I’m not very worried about it. Dubas said they can and will sign and keep the big three plus Tavares. I believe in Dubie.

Turning to the defense, you think you can get Chiarelli to take Zaitsev for Klefbom?
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Re: Buy low trade options for this offseason

Post #185 by Philthy Thrillz » Fri Jul 06, 2018 4:33 pm

Thomas Malthus wrote:For sure Marner wants to wait. I think he gets Draisaitl money if he signs this summer. If he waits he may get Kane money.


I bet he tops out at Drai money, no way he gets 10.5.

Look at the Pasternak and Ehlers deal. I think he's pretty much on their level as of today. I'm sure there are other comparables, but those two are the most used that make sense.
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Re: Buy low trade options for this offseason

Post #186 by Thomas Malthus » Fri Jul 06, 2018 4:54 pm

Philthy Thrillz wrote:
Thomas Malthus wrote:For sure Marner wants to wait. I think he gets Draisaitl money if he signs this summer. If he waits he may get Kane money.


I bet he tops out at Drai money, no way he gets 10.5.

Look at the Pasternak and Ehlers deal. I think he's pretty much on their level as of today. I'm sure there are other comparables, but those two are the most used that make sense.


I meant that if Marner waits until after next season to sign he might get Kane money. He played at a 90 point pace in the back half of last season with Bozak. Imagine what he’s going to do next year with Tavares entering him and his natural growth. He could challenge for the Art Ross (possible but probably not likely).
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Re: Buy low trade options for this offseason

Post #187 by AGENT ZERO » Fri Jul 06, 2018 4:55 pm

paulster wrote:The Leafs aren’t going to lose their star players. There’s nothing to worry about.


We are keeping the big 4 for sure, it is Gardiner who will likely be lost to make this all work.
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Re: Buy low trade options for this offseason

Post #188 by AGENT ZERO » Fri Jul 06, 2018 4:57 pm

Thomas Malthus wrote:
paulster wrote:The Leafs aren’t going to lose their star players. There’s nothing to worry about.


I’m not very worried about it. Dubas said they can and will sign and keep the big three plus Tavares. I believe in Dubie.

Turning to the defense, you think you can get Chiarelli to take Zaitsev for Klefbom?


I doubt it, but maybe Gardiner for Klefbom? Fills a need on the RS, and Klefbom has an awesome contract. My only concern about Klefbom is injuries, when he is healthy he is terrific.
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Re: Buy low trade options for this offseason

Post #189 by AGENT ZERO » Fri Jul 06, 2018 4:57 pm

Philthy Thrillz wrote:
Thomas Malthus wrote:For sure Marner wants to wait. I think he gets Draisaitl money if he signs this summer. If he waits he may get Kane money.


I bet he tops out at Drai money, no way he gets 10.5.

Look at the Pasternak and Ehlers deal. I think he's pretty much on their level as of today. I'm sure there are other comparables, but those two are the most used that make sense.


Marner has outscored both at the same age, and the cap has gone up. There is really no reason to expect either him or Nylander to sign for those deals unless it is a bridge.
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Re: Buy low trade options for this offseason

Post #190 by paulster » Fri Jul 06, 2018 9:48 pm

I’ve become a fan of not trading for players we’ve heard of.

Shanaplan seems to be working with the homegrown strategy. Just get a reliable system in place that we can cycle supporting players in and out of. Work on keeping the stars employed and it’s all good.

It’s why I like the Leafs’ young prospects: I keep getting older; they stay the saaaaaammme age...
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Re: Buy low trade options for this offseason

Post #191 by Philthy Thrillz » Fri Jul 06, 2018 10:32 pm

And they'll be like, hey fuck faces, you guys are playing with John Fucking Tavares and Auston Fucking Matthews. You'll take 7.5 and like it.
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Re: Buy low trade options for this offseason

Post #192 by cawbber » Sun Jul 08, 2018 8:44 pm

paulster wrote:I’ve become a fan of not trading for players we’ve heard of.

Shanaplan seems to be working with the homegrown strategy. Just get a reliable system in place that we can cycle supporting players in and out of. Work on keeping the stars employed and it’s all good.

It’s why I like the Leafs’ young prospects: I keep getting older; they stay the saaaaaammme age...

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Re: Buy low trade options for this offseason

Post #193 by chicpea » Sun Jul 08, 2018 10:04 pm

Thomas Malthus wrote:Imagine what he’s going to do with Tavares entering him and his natural growth.


:creeper2:
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Re: Buy low trade options for this offseason

Post #194 by Dynrehab » Tue Jul 10, 2018 12:25 pm

AGENT ZERO wrote:
paulster wrote:The Leafs aren’t going to lose their star players. There’s nothing to worry about.


We are keeping the big 4 for sure, it is Gardiner who will likely be lost to make this all work.


I think you move Zaitsev and keep Jake if losing Jake is the concern.
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Re: Buy low trade options for this offseason

Post #195 by AGENT ZERO » Tue Jul 10, 2018 2:42 pm

Dynrehab wrote:
AGENT ZERO wrote:
paulster wrote:The Leafs aren’t going to lose their star players. There’s nothing to worry about.


We are keeping the big 4 for sure, it is Gardiner who will likely be lost to make this all work.


I think you move Zaitsev and keep Jake if losing Jake is the concern.


It would take Marleau and Zaitsev to realistically fit it in, and even then I'm not sure that you want to commit 6M with term to a non core player. I think if Gardiner wants to stay with the Leafs he needs to be at 5.5M
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Re: Buy low trade options for this offseason

Post #196 by vf » Tue Jul 10, 2018 4:26 pm

I think if Gardiner wants to stay he can't make more then Mo
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Re: Buy low trade options for this offseason

Post #197 by Philthy Thrillz » Tue Jul 10, 2018 4:47 pm

I think Dermott will replace Gardiner after this year.
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Re: Buy low trade options for this offseason

Post #198 by AGENT ZERO » Tue Jul 10, 2018 4:47 pm

If the cap goes up to 83-84M next year, Gardiner at 6M could work. It would be really tight in 2019-20, but after one year the Leafs would get 11.55M in cap relief with Marleau and Horton coming off of the books. This also assumes that Zaitsev is traded, and the bottom of the roster is filled with cheap ELC contracts.
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Re: Buy low trade options for this offseason

Post #199 by AGENT ZERO » Tue Jul 10, 2018 4:58 pm

Philthy Thrillz wrote:I think Dermott will replace Gardiner after this year.


You still need a top 4 D.
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Re: Buy low trade options for this offseason

Post #200 by Philthy Thrillz » Tue Jul 10, 2018 5:19 pm

AGENT ZERO wrote:
Philthy Thrillz wrote:I think Dermott will replace Gardiner after this year.


You still need a top 4 D.


Mo and Dermott on the left side, and someone like Rosen or Borgman. We need to find two top 4 righties. Hope Lilly pans out then just need one.

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