Who needs the playoffs when we have the draft?

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Who needs the playoffs when we have the draft?

Post #1 by cawbber » Thu Apr 26, 2018 12:04 pm

Playoffs are so yesterday.

Who are interesting options in our relative draft reach?
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Re: Who needs the playoffs when we have the draft?

Post #2 by paulster » Thu Apr 26, 2018 12:07 pm

Gards + 1st for young RHD shoe-in.
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Re: Who needs the playoffs when we have the draft?

Post #3 by cawbber » Thu Apr 26, 2018 12:39 pm

paulster wrote:Gards + 1st for young RHD shoe-in.

candidates?
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Re: Who needs the playoffs when we have the draft?

Post #4 by MonkeyWrench » Thu Apr 26, 2018 2:10 pm

Win the 2nd overall draft pick via lottery.
Trade Gardiner + 2nd ov to Calgary for Hamilton + ~20 ov so they can connect the Tkachuk bros.
Draft a decent Dman at that pick.

*dusts armchair gm hands thusly*
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Re: Who needs the playoffs when we have the draft?

Post #5 by AGENT ZERO » Thu Apr 26, 2018 2:23 pm

cawbber wrote:Playoffs are so yesterday.

Who are interesting options in our relative draft reach?


Ty Smith is one of the most interesting prospects in this years class because he has posted the best (draft year) ppg totals of any defender in WHL history, and by all accounts is also strong defensively, but for whatever reason is not a consensus top 10 selection. Might be a good trade up candidate if he falls to the teens.
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Re: Who needs the playoffs when we have the draft?

Post #6 by cawbber » Thu Apr 26, 2018 5:23 pm

AGENT ZERO wrote:
cawbber wrote:Playoffs are so yesterday.

Who are interesting options in our relative draft reach?


Ty Smith is one of the most interesting prospects in this years class because he has posted the best (draft year) ppg totals of any defender in WHL history, and by all accounts is also strong defensively, but for whatever reason is not a consensus top 10 selection. Might be a good trade up candidate if he falls to the teens.

Thx. Will check out him out.
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Re: Who needs the playoffs when we have the draft?

Post #7 by Thomas Malthus » Fri Apr 27, 2018 1:31 pm




"If you torture the data long enough, it will confess to anything." - Ronald Coase
"[...]all models are wrong, some are useful." - George E. P. Box
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Re: Who needs the playoffs when we have the draft?

Post #8 by AGENT ZERO » Fri Apr 27, 2018 3:17 pm

This year is really weak on forwards, particularly centers, but loaded on defense. Hopefully we can take full advantage.
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Re: Who needs the playoffs when we have the draft?

Post #9 by Thomas Malthus » Tue May 01, 2018 9:26 pm

Cool resource with a google sheets page that as a tonne of really neat metrics and info on some of these players: https://dobberprospects.com/analytics-and-the-draft/

Here's a consolidated ranking for the first round: https://canucksarmy.com/2018/04/20/2018 ... pril-2018/

Merkley looks like he might be a guy who's available when we pick. Overager Sean Durzi looks kind of intriguing. I'm also interested in Axel Andersson (a swedish righty defender) and Linus Karlsson (a swedish center) both of whom have decently high adjusted NHL equivalent points but who are ranked into the third round. Nicolas Beaudin has some good looking stats and falls into the early second round (with Dubas in charge we might trade down).

I'm also curious about K'Andre Miller, a defender from who looks to be a late first round pick but his placements in lists range from top half of the first round to end of the second. Nils Lundkvist a swedish right defender is drawing a lot of interest right now and rising up several lists.
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Re: Who needs the playoffs when we have the draft?

Post #10 by Thomas Malthus » Fri May 04, 2018 8:28 pm

Another interesting resource: https://canucksarmy.com/2018/05/04/2018 ... -rankings/

The creator is Jeremy Davis, who created the consolidated ranking I listed above. I like the idea of the pGPS (essentially creating comparison groups for each player based on observable characteristics and measuring the success of the players in these comparison groups) and I think he's very up front about what his rankings do and do not include.
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Re: Who needs the playoffs when we have the draft?

Post #11 by Thomas Malthus » Tue May 08, 2018 1:56 pm

"If you torture the data long enough, it will confess to anything." - Ronald Coase
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Re: Who needs the playoffs when we have the draft?

Post #12 by AGENT ZERO » Tue May 08, 2018 2:45 pm

I really hope Ty Smith drops to us.
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Re: Who needs the playoffs when we have the draft?

Post #13 by Philthy Thrillz » Tue May 08, 2018 4:28 pm

By that list, looks like we will be picking a center. So my question is, what centers are the homerun picks? Who is big, fast, gritty, two way player? Emphasis on speed...
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Re: Who needs the playoffs when we have the draft?

Post #14 by Philthy Thrillz » Tue May 08, 2018 4:32 pm

Is it set where we are picking?
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Re: Who needs the playoffs when we have the draft?

Post #15 by Philthy Thrillz » Tue May 08, 2018 4:40 pm

How about Akil Thomas? Good kid, loves the game.
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Re: Who needs the playoffs when we have the draft?

Post #16 by cawbber » Tue May 08, 2018 4:42 pm

AGENT ZERO wrote:I really hope Ty Smith drops to us.

do you think that's a possibility? It happened with Timmy, surprisingly.

Quick, someone give that kid mono
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Re: Who needs the playoffs when we have the draft?

Post #17 by Thomas Malthus » Tue May 08, 2018 6:06 pm

Philthy Thrillz wrote:Is it set where we are picking?


We have three picks in the first 3 rounds. Our own first and the Sharks' 2nd and 3rd rounders. We pick 25, 52, 83. You can see our picks here: https://www.capfriendly.com/draft/2018

I know people seem really high on Berggren's skill, though he has quite a range of opinions on him. Seems like he projects more as a winger than centre and his defensive game needs some work but people like his playmaking, finishing and tenacity on the forecheck.

If some really talented player is falling it seems more likely to be Merkeley. He has behavioural issues apparently and a poor commitment to defense (though some people think that playing on a bad team makes this look much worse than it is). I'd be down to grab him if he fell as he seems like a borderline top 10 talent.

Kupari looks interesting but I'm not sure he's around for our pick.

If nobody is falling I'd be a big fan of moving down and hopefully grabbing at least another second or third round pick. It seems like towards the end of the first round in this draft we get into a bunch of guys that have a very wide range of opinions/rankings and having another bullet to throw out there on a someone who likely falls from the end of the first or early second round would be nice.
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Re: Who needs the playoffs when we have the draft?

Post #18 by Philthy Thrillz » Wed May 16, 2018 3:57 pm

Have the inside scoop on Merkeley. He's a real fuckhead, apparently. Doubt we pick him. With the first anyway.
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Re: Who needs the playoffs when we have the draft?

Post #19 by Thomas Malthus » Wed May 16, 2018 4:39 pm

Really? Well, I'm all for trading down and trying to grab someone like Nils Lundkvist or Jonatan Berggren and taking some flyer with the additional pick.
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Re: Who needs the playoffs when we have the draft?

Post #20 by Philthy Thrillz » Wed May 16, 2018 4:45 pm

Really.
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Re: Who needs the playoffs when we have the draft?

Post #21 by Thomas Malthus » Wed May 16, 2018 5:13 pm

PT, Hockey Insider.
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Re: Who needs the playoffs when we have the draft?

Post #22 by Philthy Thrillz » Wed May 16, 2018 5:31 pm

Lol
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Re: Who needs the playoffs when we have the draft?

Post #23 by Honus Joglund » Wed May 16, 2018 6:03 pm

Yes, he's a complete fucking idiot. As in terrible attitude, fights with teammates and coaches, doesn't even try to play defense, gives up on plays. He's like a Josh Ho-Sang, Kyle Beach, Kirill Kabanov, etc., but probably worse. I would surprised if he's not DND'd (do not draft) by several teams.

The funniest thing I've seen is someone on Twitter claim that he shit talks people on Reddit for criticizing him: https://www.reddit.com/user/brantchanterelles/overview/

Who knows if that's really him, or some dork pretending to be him. Every post is a reply to someone who criticized Ryan Merkley though. :donger:
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Re: Who needs the playoffs when we have the draft?

Post #24 by Philthy Thrillz » Thu May 17, 2018 7:34 am

For todays insider scoop. I've met Akil Thomas a bunch of times away from the ice. Mom is real nice, dad is a gud man, Akil is a well mannered young man. Not sure about his on ice shit, but he'll be a real gud pro.
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Re: Who needs the playoffs when we have the draft?

Post #25 by Honus Joglund » Thu May 17, 2018 7:58 am

Philthy Thrillz wrote:Mom is real nice


Image

Philthy Thrillz wrote:dad is a gud man


Image

Philthy Thrillz wrote:well mannered young man.


ImageImageImageImageImage
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Re: Who needs the playoffs when we have the draft?

Post #26 by Thomas Malthus » Wed May 23, 2018 10:56 am

Pronman has his rankings up at the Athletic. Big surprise right away: Kotkaniemi ranked fourth.
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Re: Who needs the playoffs when we have the draft?

Post #27 by AGENT ZERO » Wed May 23, 2018 12:12 pm

I think I'm warming up to Ryan Merkley as a pick. I am concerned about the rumors around his attitude, but he has top 5 ability and it feels like the type of risk that the Leafs should be more willing to take given their position in the draft. I'm also a bit intrigued by the fact that Merkley has made it this far with such a poor commitment to the defensive end, if that improves (and it will be up to the Leafs staff to determine if this is just a teen phase vs someone who will never figure it out) then his development could sky rocket.
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Re: Who needs the playoffs when we have the draft?

Post #28 by AGENT ZERO » Wed May 23, 2018 12:20 pm

Honus Joglund wrote:Yes, he's a complete fucking idiot. As in terrible attitude, fights with teammates and coaches, doesn't even try to play defense, gives up on plays. He's like a Josh Ho-Sang, Kyle Beach, Kirill Kabanov, etc., but probably worse. I would surprised if he's not DND'd (do not draft) by several teams.

The funniest thing I've seen is someone on Twitter claim that he shit talks people on Reddit for criticizing him: https://www.reddit.com/user/brantchanterelles/overview/

Who knows if that's really him, or some dork pretending to be him. Every post is a reply to someone who criticized Ryan Merkley though. :donger:


Josh Ho Sang is the only one of those three that actually produced in his draft year, and if you adjust for position Merkley's production is even more impressive than that. Merkley was also more productive than any of those players in the lead up to his draft year. He may be a douche, but he has been legitimately productive up to this point.
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Re: Who needs the playoffs when we have the draft?

Post #29 by Philthy Thrillz » Wed May 23, 2018 1:39 pm

AGENT ZERO wrote:I think I'm warming up to Ryan Merkley as a pick. I am concerned about the rumors around his attitude, but he has top 5 ability and it feels like the type of risk that the Leafs should be more willing to take given their position in the draft. I'm also a bit intrigued by the fact that Merkley has made it this far with such a poor commitment to the defensive end, if that improves (and it will be up to the Leafs staff to determine if this is just a teen phase vs someone who will never figure it out) then his development could sky rocket.



My source is a player that has played with him, sat beside him in the dressing room. I'm taking his word that he's an asshat cunt. Not a good teammate.
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Re: Who needs the playoffs when we have the draft?

Post #30 by AGENT ZERO » Wed May 23, 2018 2:03 pm

Philthy Thrillz wrote:
AGENT ZERO wrote:I think I'm warming up to Ryan Merkley as a pick. I am concerned about the rumors around his attitude, but he has top 5 ability and it feels like the type of risk that the Leafs should be more willing to take given their position in the draft. I'm also a bit intrigued by the fact that Merkley has made it this far with such a poor commitment to the defensive end, if that improves (and it will be up to the Leafs staff to determine if this is just a teen phase vs someone who will never figure it out) then his development could sky rocket.



My source is a player that has played with him, sat beside him in the dressing room. I'm taking his word that he's an asshat cunt. Not a good teammate.


I believe you, but Merkley is 18 years old. He would have to be a terrible human being (and he may be) for me to write him off at that age.
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Re: Who needs the playoffs when we have the draft?

Post #31 by Thomas Malthus » Wed May 23, 2018 2:24 pm

The interview will be super important for getting a handle on Merkley. I know these kids are coached out the ass for them, but still a great chance to see if he's somebody that's gonna be redeemable. If he's as bad as it seems, then he might fall a lot on draft day. Then, maybe trade down and see if he's still around for one of the lower picks. That way you can insulate yourself against that swing for the fence. There are some other interesting and talented players who might be available where we pick or slightly below if we trade down that aren't fuck heads (Berggren, Lundkvist, Bokk, Wilde, Miller, Tychonick).
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Re: Who needs the playoffs when we have the draft?

Post #32 by AGENT ZERO » Wed May 23, 2018 2:44 pm

Thomas Malthus wrote:The interview will be super important for getting a handle on Merkley. I know these kids are coached out the ass for them, but still a great chance to see if he's somebody that's gonna be redeemable. If he's as bad as it seems, then he might fall a lot on draft day. Then, maybe trade down and see if he's still around for one of the lower picks. That way you can insulate yourself against that swing for the fence. There are some other interesting and talented players who might be available where we pick or slightly below if we trade down that aren't fuck heads (Berggren, Lundkvist, Bokk, Wilde, Miller, Tychonick).


Are there any good looking players from the USHL in that range? It seems like there have been some steals from the USHL in recent years at the back end of the first round, and beginning of the second round.
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Re: Who needs the playoffs when we have the draft?

Post #33 by Thomas Malthus » Wed May 23, 2018 3:02 pm

AGENT ZERO wrote:
Thomas Malthus wrote:The interview will be super important for getting a handle on Merkley. I know these kids are coached out the ass for them, but still a great chance to see if he's somebody that's gonna be redeemable. If he's as bad as it seems, then he might fall a lot on draft day. Then, maybe trade down and see if he's still around for one of the lower picks. That way you can insulate yourself against that swing for the fence. There are some other interesting and talented players who might be available where we pick or slightly below if we trade down that aren't fuck heads (Berggren, Lundkvist, Bokk, Wilde, Miller, Tychonick).


Are there any good looking players from the USHL in that range? It seems like there have been some steals from the USHL in recent years at the back end of the first round, and beginning of the second round.


In addition to Wilde and Miller, here are a few that various people have going from end of the first to somewhere in the third (some of these players have quite the split in opinions): Jake Wise, Jack Drury, Blake McLaughlin, Mattias Samuelsson, Johnny Gruden.
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Re: Who needs the playoffs when we have the draft?

Post #34 by AGENT ZERO » Wed May 23, 2018 3:23 pm

I like Jack Wise and Drury's stat-lines, and assuming Samuelsson can skate those numbers on the back end with his size are intriguing as well.
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Re: Who needs the playoffs when we have the draft?

Post #35 by Honus Joglund » Wed May 23, 2018 6:15 pm

If you fellas want good value per pick, go to Denmark. From 2004 to 2014, 10 out of 13 players made the NHL at some capacity. That's an absurd hit rate. Some quality players in there, too (Ehlers, Andersen, Boedker, Bjorkstrand, Hansen, Eller).

https://www.eliteprospects.com/draft/nh ... nation/dnk

Jacob Schmidt-Svejstrup all day.
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Re: Who needs the playoffs when we have the draft?

Post #36 by Thomas Malthus » Wed May 23, 2018 8:26 pm

Honus Joglund wrote:If you fellas want good value per pick, go to Denmark. From 2004 to 2014, 10 out of 13 players made the NHL at some capacity. That's an absurd hit rate. Some quality players in there, too (Ehlers, Andersen, Boedker, Bjorkstrand, Hansen, Eller).

https://www.eliteprospects.com/draft/nh ... nation/dnk

Jacob Schmidt-Svejstrup all day.


I haven't seen that guy on any list that I've looked at. I didn't even know he was a real player o.O

He's committed to U of Maine, I suspect people will just wait to see if he's good enough to turn pro in a few years instead of throwing a pick at him. CSS has him at 205 among NA skaters.
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Re: Who needs the playoffs when we have the draft?

Post #37 by WTF » Wed May 23, 2018 8:33 pm

Thomas Malthus wrote:
Honus Joglund wrote:If you fellas want good value per pick, go to Denmark. From 2004 to 2014, 10 out of 13 players made the NHL at some capacity. That's an absurd hit rate. Some quality players in there, too (Ehlers, Andersen, Boedker, Bjorkstrand, Hansen, Eller).

https://www.eliteprospects.com/draft/nh ... nation/dnk

Jacob Schmidt-Svejstrup all day.


I haven't seen that guy on any list that I've looked at. I didn't even know he was a real player o.O

He's committed to U of Maine, I suspect people will just wait to see if he's good enough to turn pro in a few years instead of throwing a pick at him. CSS has him at 205 among NA skaters.


I'll be honest: I thought it was just a John Jacob Jingleheimer Schmidt setup.
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Re: Who needs the playoffs when we have the draft?

Post #39 by cawbber » Sun May 27, 2018 8:34 pm

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Re: Who needs the playoffs when we have the draft?

Post #40 by AGENT ZERO » Sun May 27, 2018 8:43 pm



I would drop down if I could pick up a 2nd and 3rd. There are a ton of interesting guys in that range.
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Re: Who needs the playoffs when we have the draft?

Post #41 by Curry Rage » Sun May 27, 2018 9:57 pm



Looks pretty nifty. What are the knocks on him?
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Re: Who needs the playoffs when we have the draft?

Post #42 by AGENT ZERO » Mon May 28, 2018 9:29 am

Curry Rage wrote:


Looks pretty nifty. What are the knocks on him?


On the slender side, was not considered a high end guy coming into the year, and projects more as a winger than a center at the next level. I've also read that he isn't polished away from the puck. On the plus side, the hands, IQ and speed are all high end and he has been improving dramatically as the year has gone on. He also has the production to back up the tools.
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Re: Who needs the playoffs when we have the draft?

Post #43 by Curry Rage » Mon May 28, 2018 10:52 am

Listed at 5'10" and 183lbs at 17. When are these guys going to learn that you can put 10lbs on a kid just by waiting? Likely he'll grow an inch too. I used to call that "Detroit size" as they used to roll out all those high skill guys like Z, Datsyuk, Tatar, Nyqvist, Hudler, Filppula, etc. who we're all 6' or under but athletic and mobile.

Al Arbour knew you could teach a guy to play away from the puck if he had brains. Keefe has been specialising in taking our high skill forward prospects and getting them to play the white way.

Within reason regarding size, I'm a results guy. If he's putting up points and there are no clear skill deficiencies - I.e. Skating - you have to seriously consider them. Squats and protein shakes aren't exactly rocket science. Let alone the kind of sorcery the fitness guys use these days.

5'10" and 192lb at a low body fat percentage is still going to be a difficult guy to handle if he's solid on his skates, especially the way the game is called and played now.
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Re: Who needs the playoffs when we have the draft?

Post #44 by AGENT ZERO » Mon May 28, 2018 11:18 am

Curry Rage wrote:Listed at 5'10" and 183lbs at 17. When are these guys going to learn that you can put 10lbs on a kid just by waiting? Likely he'll grow an inch too. I used to call that "Detroit size" as they used to roll out all those high skill guys like Z, Datsyuk, Tatar, Nyqvist, Hudler, Filppula, etc. who we're all 6' or under but athletic and mobile.

Al Arbour knew you could teach a guy to play away from the puck if he had brains. Keefe has been specialising in taking our high skill forward prospects and getting them to play the white way.

Within reason regarding size, I'm a results guy. If he's putting up points and there are no clear skill deficiencies - I.e. Skating - you have to seriously consider them. Squats and protein shakes aren't exactly rocket science. Let alone the kind of sorcery the fitness guys use these days.

5'10" and 192lb at a low body fat percentage is still going to be a difficult guy to handle if he's solid on his skates, especially the way the game is called and played now.


I'm with you, I also think it's encouraging that he already has blazing speed and is said to be on the skinny side. Can you imagine how fast he can be if he starts squatting and deadlifting like a pro?
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Re: Who needs the playoffs when we have the draft?

Post #45 by vf » Mon May 28, 2018 2:19 pm

I was 5'10 170lbs when I was 17. Admittedly I'm heavier then I'd like to be but I walk around at 6'3 235 now.
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Re: Who needs the playoffs when we have the draft?

Post #46 by AGENT ZERO » Thu Jun 14, 2018 9:42 am

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Re: Who needs the playoffs when we have the draft?

Post #47 by AGENT ZERO » Thu Jun 14, 2018 9:43 am

It really does seem like offer sheets are a massive opportunity to get better that no one is taking advantage of.
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Re: Who needs the playoffs when we have the draft?

Post #48 by Whit Dickman » Tue Jun 19, 2018 1:06 am

AGENT ZERO wrote:https://twitter.com/regressIan/status/1002370336552308736


Cool analysis. One gripe is that he's calling the analysis "strong links" for some reason, but that refers simply to the justification for focusing on the likelihood of drafting a top 31 player based on GAR. That is, it doesn't describe the value at all and is therefore needlessly confusing. Should call it Top31GAR or something

#pedant
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Re: Who needs the playoffs when we have the draft?

Post #49 by Whit Dickman » Tue Jun 19, 2018 1:12 am

He also comes to the wrong conclusion. Yes, top players are more influential for winning than bottom players are for losing, but that doesn't mean that top players explain 100% of winning. This is an extremely common error in statistical inference.

There's a small difference b/w first and second (etc) rounds in terms of top 31 in GAR, but there's still a large difference in overall quality. Given that the likelihood of obtaining stars is low, it makes sense to maximize the likelihood of adding a good player. In fact, predicting which player will be a star (outside of the top 3) is so noisy that it's best to just maximize assets.

Still supports trading down. But not as extremely as he makes it seem.
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Re: Who needs the playoffs when we have the draft?

Post #50 by mcphee » Tue Jun 19, 2018 7:20 am

vf wrote:I was 5'10 170lbs when I was 17. Admittedly I'm heavier then I'd like to be but I walk around at 6'3 235 now.

I'm 5'9 , 225. Maybe we could meet for coffee.

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