Who needs the playoffs when we have the draft?

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Re: Who needs the playoffs when we have the draft?

Post #201 by LeafOfBread » Wed Jun 27, 2018 11:41 pm

AGENT ZERO wrote:
LeafOfBread wrote:
AGENT ZERO wrote:The more I read about the Leafs draft picks the more encouraged I become. This is obviously excluding the last two picks because there is next to no information pertaining to them, but in Tommy we trust.

Scott Wheeler ranked us dead last in his draft ratings. What a virgin that guy is.


He gave the Leafs an average draft ranking. Are you thinking of someone else?

My friend told me Wheeler put us last. I was kinda dumbfounded since I could've sworn Wheeler was a Dubas nuthugger. Perhaps my friend is the virgin instead..
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Re: Who needs the playoffs when we have the draft?

Post #202 by AGENT ZERO » Thu Jun 28, 2018 12:22 am

LOL
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Re: Who needs the playoffs when we have the draft?

Post #203 by Thomas Malthus » Thu Jun 28, 2018 7:35 am

Most people’s take is that the Leafs has a solid if unspectacular draft. People’s main criticisms seem to be passing on Veleno and Addison with the first two picks, reaching on SDA, and picking Stotts in general.

They didn’t really reach on Sandin or Durzi and after the second round it’s tough to call players a reach since there’s so much variation in those player’s rankings.
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Re: Who needs the playoffs when we have the draft?

Post #204 by paulster » Thu Jun 28, 2018 9:26 am

Ranking a draft is ridiculous. Who knows how any of these guys will turn out?
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Re: Who needs the playoffs when we have the draft?

Post #205 by Thomas Malthus » Thu Jun 28, 2018 10:39 am

paulster wrote:Ranking a draft is ridiculous. Who knows how any of these guys will turn out?


That's why some people advocate ranking drafts based only right after they happen. That it only makes sense to evaluate based on the information known at the time (this line of thinking is the same as never evaluating trades containing picks using the proceeds of those picks). So in that sense it's an evaluation of the process and expected outcomes rather than the realized outcomes that are undoubtedly influenced by randomness and other shit.

*shrug*
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Re: Who needs the playoffs when we have the draft?

Post #206 by Whit Dickman » Thu Jun 28, 2018 12:09 pm

Thomas Malthus wrote:
paulster wrote:Ranking a draft is ridiculous. Who knows how any of these guys will turn out?


That's why some people advocate ranking drafts based only right after they happen. That it only makes sense to evaluate based on the information known at the time (this line of thinking is the same as never evaluating trades containing picks using the proceeds of those picks). So in that sense it's an evaluation of the process and expected outcomes rather than the realized outcomes that are undoubtedly influenced by randomness and other shit.

*shrug*


It makes sense, but it also implies that the evaluators aren't also just throwing darts at a board.
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Re: Who needs the playoffs when we have the draft?

Post #207 by Thomas Malthus » Thu Jun 28, 2018 12:29 pm

Whit Dickman wrote:
Thomas Malthus wrote:
paulster wrote:Ranking a draft is ridiculous. Who knows how any of these guys will turn out?


That's why some people advocate ranking drafts based only right after they happen. That it only makes sense to evaluate based on the information known at the time (this line of thinking is the same as never evaluating trades containing picks using the proceeds of those picks). So in that sense it's an evaluation of the process and expected outcomes rather than the realized outcomes that are undoubtedly influenced by randomness and other shit.

*shrug*


It makes sense, but it also implies that the evaluators aren't also just throwing darts at a board.


Yeah, there's gotta be a huge degree of uncertainty in ranking these players based on the information that teams have at the time of selection. The main concern i have with after the fact comparisons is that everything after the selection of a player is endogenous—at that point the NHL club's development, nutrition, etc. staff and coaches are working with the player to improve them. The counterfactual of simply selecting a "better" player and assuming the same development path despite these confounding factors is obviously suspect.
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Re: Who needs the playoffs when we have the draft?

Post #208 by Geo » Fri Jun 29, 2018 2:51 pm

Imagine trading the 1st round pick for overrated, one-dimensional, made-of-glass Chris Tanev. Sandin and SDA for Tanev.

That's Filip Forsberg-for-Martin Erat bad. Thank goodness the team didn't do anything that stupid.
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Re: Who needs the playoffs when we have the draft?

Post #209 by Curry Rage » Fri Jun 29, 2018 5:31 pm

Geo wrote:Imagine trading the 1st round pick for overrated, one-dimensional, made-of-glass Chris Tanev. Sandin and SDA for Tanev.

That's Filip Forsberg-for-Martin Erat bad. Thank goodness the team didn't do anything that stupid.


No joke. I just wrote this exact thing in the other thread before reading this post.

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Re: Who needs the playoffs when we have the draft?

Post #210 by Whit Dickman » Mon Jul 23, 2018 11:49 pm

hey have you guys noticed how good the Leafs are at drafting d-men? And by good I mean absolute shit.

Dermott (2nd round, 34th overall)
Rielly (1st round, 5th overall)
Schenn (1st round, 5th overall)
Pateryn (5th round, 128th overall)
Holzer (4th round, 111 overall)
Stralman (7th round, 216 overall)
White (6th round, 191 overall)
Colaiacovo (1st round, 17th overall)
Harrison (3rd round, 82nd overall)

That's it from 20 years of drafting. One first pairing defenseman (outside shot for Dermott). Two, maybe three 2nd pairing d-men (at peak). 4-5 bottom pairing players. Hopefully at least one of Sandin, Liljegren, Rasanen, and Durzi work out.

Dumpster (starting in 2014):

Valiev, Finn, Loov, Percy, Nilsson, Robertson, Everson, Granberg, Blacker, Knodel, Smith,
MacWilliam, Mikus, Oreskovic, Vorobiev, Semenov, Doherty, D'Amour, Turon, Kronwall, Pilar, Bell, Kondratiev, Mojzis, Seikola, Velebny, Cote, Reynolds, Zion, Zavoral, Hedin, Metcalf, Svoboda, Rourke, Wolfe, Marchand.


Look who Nashville drafted:
Girard (2nd round), Jones (1st round), Ellis (1st round), Ekholm (4th round), Josi (2nd round), Franson (3rd round), Suter (1st round), Klein (2nd round), Weber (2nd round), Hamhuis (1st round), Skrastins (9th round)


Anyway, no one has said anything hockey related for a while.
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Re: Who needs the playoffs when we have the draft?

Post #211 by paulster » Tue Jul 24, 2018 8:53 am

At least they are good at picking forwards.

Time to make a trade?
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Re: Who needs the playoffs when we have the draft?

Post #212 by Zardoz » Tue Jul 24, 2018 8:37 pm

Did we not draft Gunnar?
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Re: Who needs the playoffs when we have the draft?

Post #213 by LeafOfBread » Tue Jul 24, 2018 9:15 pm

Go figure that the second best guy on that list and arguably the best in his own zone we traded away. Susf.
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Re: Who needs the playoffs when we have the draft?

Post #214 by Whit Dickman » Tue Jul 24, 2018 11:41 pm

Zardoz wrote:Did we not draft Gunnar?


Ooops missed him somehow
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Re: Who needs the playoffs when we have the draft?

Post #215 by Whit Dickman » Tue Jul 24, 2018 11:42 pm

LeafOfBread wrote:Go figure that the second best guy on that list and arguably the best in his own zone we traded away. Susf.


Didn't like that trade when it happened. And we traded him to make room for Jeff fucking Finger.

Oh and the 2nd rounder we got for Stralman was used to move up in the draft for Tyler fucking Biggs.

Oh and it turned into Brandon Saad.

Sigh
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Re: Who needs the playoffs when we have the draft?

Post #216 by Dynrehab » Wed Jul 25, 2018 1:07 am

Whit Dickman wrote:
LeafOfBread wrote:Go figure that the second best guy on that list and arguably the best in his own zone we traded away. Susf.


Didn't like that trade when it happened. And we traded him to make room for Jeff fucking Finger.

Oh and the 2nd rounder we got for Stralman was used to move up in the draft for Tyler fucking Biggs.

Oh and it turned into Brandon Saad.

Sigh


I thought Biggs was using the Gibson and Rackell picks?
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Re: Who needs the playoffs when we have the draft?

Post #217 by Curry Rage » Wed Jul 25, 2018 9:32 am

Must be summer. We're doing forensics on the past like my wife in an argument and genealogy of traded draft picks. Hope you boys are well. We're having something like actual summer here and everyone is all-a-tizzy. Plus the government is planning to stockpile food and medicine in case of a no-deal Brexit. Big uptick in discussion of moving back to Canada in "Canadians in the UK" type groups on Facebook. Fuck oil stocks, I'm putting my money in air conditioning, SPAM and Air Canada. If I go dark after March 29, 2019, wish me luck.

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Re: Who needs the playoffs when we have the draft?

Post #218 by Whit Dickman » Wed Jul 25, 2018 10:00 am

Dynrehab wrote:
Whit Dickman wrote:
LeafOfBread wrote:Go figure that the second best guy on that list and arguably the best in his own zone we traded away. Susf.


Didn't like that trade when it happened. And we traded him to make room for Jeff fucking Finger.

Oh and the 2nd rounder we got for Stralman was used to move up in the draft for Tyler fucking Biggs.

Oh and it turned into Brandon Saad.

Sigh


I thought Biggs was using the Gibson and Rackell picks?


Hmmmm might have gotten crossed up somewhere

Someone fact check me please
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Re: Who needs the playoffs when we have the draft?

Post #219 by Whit Dickman » Wed Jul 25, 2018 10:05 am

My bad, it was used for Brad Ross. Saad is still who was picked, though.
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Re: Who needs the playoffs when we have the draft?

Post #220 by AGENT ZERO » Wed Jul 25, 2018 10:42 am

Whit Dickman wrote:
LeafOfBread wrote:Go figure that the second best guy on that list and arguably the best in his own zone we traded away. Susf.


Didn't like that trade when it happened. And we traded him to make room for Jeff fucking Finger.

Oh and the 2nd rounder we got for Stralman was used to move up in the draft for Tyler fucking Biggs.

Oh and it turned into Brandon Saad.

Sigh


Brian Burke, Dave Nonis and JFJ set this organization so far back, it's a miracle that they were able to recover as quickly as they did.
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Re: Who needs the playoffs when we have the draft?

Post #221 by Whit Dickman » Wed Jul 25, 2018 12:05 pm

AGENT ZERO wrote:
Whit Dickman wrote:
LeafOfBread wrote:Go figure that the second best guy on that list and arguably the best in his own zone we traded away. Susf.


Didn't like that trade when it happened. And we traded him to make room for Jeff fucking Finger.

Oh and the 2nd rounder we got for Stralman was used to move up in the draft for Tyler fucking Biggs.

Oh and it turned into Brandon Saad.

Sigh


Brian Burke, Dave Nonis and JFJ set this organization so far back, it's a miracle that they were able to recover as quickly as they did.


Actually, JFJ was decent at the draft table. His problem was trading away picks.

Defining success as a player simply getting to 100 games played, this is Quinn's success per round:
1st: 75%
2nd: 20%
3rd: 37.5%
4th: 0%
5th: 67%
6th: 20%
7th: 0%

JFJ
1st: 100% (2 picks)
2nd: 100% (1 pick)
3rd: 0%
4th: 60%
5th: 0%
6th: 33.3%
7th: 50%

Burke:
1st: 50%
2nd: 0%
3rd: 0%
4th: 0%
5th: 0%
6th: 20%
7th: 0%

That is, Burke had 29 picks (including 8 in the first 2 rounds) and drafted 3 NHLers. Kadri, Rielly, and Brown. Which means he drafted two good players high in the draft (both good choices, but still) and got one hidden gem.

Just using the hfboard consensus probably would have done better.


okay I really need to get back to work
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Re: Who needs the playoffs when we have the draft?

Post #222 by mooseOAK » Wed Jul 25, 2018 1:48 pm

AGENT ZERO wrote:
Whit Dickman wrote:
LeafOfBread wrote:Go figure that the second best guy on that list and arguably the best in his own zone we traded away. Susf.


Didn't like that trade when it happened. And we traded him to make room for Jeff fucking Finger.

Oh and the 2nd rounder we got for Stralman was used to move up in the draft for Tyler fucking Biggs.

Oh and it turned into Brandon Saad.

Sigh


Brian Burke, Dave Nonis and JFJ set this organization so far back, it's a miracle that they were able to recover as quickly as they did.

Reilly
Kadri
Bozak
Van Riemsdyk
Nylander
Johnsson
Sparks
Leivo
Gardiner
Brown

From last year’s great season.

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Re: Who needs the playoffs when we have the draft?

Post #223 by Whit Dickman » Wed Jul 25, 2018 2:25 pm

mooseOAK wrote:
AGENT ZERO wrote:
Whit Dickman wrote:
Didn't like that trade when it happened. And we traded him to make room for Jeff fucking Finger.

Oh and the 2nd rounder we got for Stralman was used to move up in the draft for Tyler fucking Biggs.

Oh and it turned into Brandon Saad.

Sigh


Brian Burke, Dave Nonis and JFJ set this organization so far back, it's a miracle that they were able to recover as quickly as they did.

Reilly
Kadri
Bozak
Van Riemsdyk
Nylander
Johnsson
Sparks
Leivo
Gardiner
Brown

From last year’s great season.



still a first round exit, Moose.

Imagine if instead of Ross, Biggs, Percy, Finn, Gauthier we had even one quality NHL player (some players picked near our guys: Orlov, Namestnikov, Rakell, McCabe, Burakovsky, Theodore, Dano).
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Re: Who needs the playoffs when we have the draft?

Post #224 by mooseOAK » Wed Jul 25, 2018 2:57 pm

I don’t spend one second of my life worrying about that stuff.
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Re: Who needs the playoffs when we have the draft?

Post #225 by Whit Dickman » Wed Jul 25, 2018 3:54 pm

mooseOAK wrote:I don’t spend one second of my life worrying about that stuff.

good, leave it to me
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Re: Who needs the playoffs when we have the draft?

Post #226 by AGENT ZERO » Wed Jul 25, 2018 4:50 pm

Whit Dickman wrote:
AGENT ZERO wrote:
Whit Dickman wrote:
Didn't like that trade when it happened. And we traded him to make room for Jeff fucking Finger.

Oh and the 2nd rounder we got for Stralman was used to move up in the draft for Tyler fucking Biggs.

Oh and it turned into Brandon Saad.

Sigh


Brian Burke, Dave Nonis and JFJ set this organization so far back, it's a miracle that they were able to recover as quickly as they did.


Actually, JFJ was decent at the draft table. His problem was trading away picks.

Defining success as a player simply getting to 100 games played, this is Quinn's success per round:
1st: 75%
2nd: 20%
3rd: 37.5%
4th: 0%
5th: 67%
6th: 20%
7th: 0%

JFJ
1st: 100% (2 picks)
2nd: 100% (1 pick)
3rd: 0%
4th: 60%
5th: 0%
6th: 33.3%
7th: 50%

Burke:
1st: 50%
2nd: 0%
3rd: 0%
4th: 0%
5th: 0%
6th: 20%
7th: 0%

That is, Burke had 29 picks (including 8 in the first 2 rounds) and drafted 3 NHLers. Kadri, Rielly, and Brown. Which means he drafted two good players high in the draft (both good choices, but still) and got one hidden gem.

Just using the hfboard consensus probably would have done better.


okay I really need to get back to work


It was more of a general criticism than an indictment of any one area of management.
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Re: Who needs the playoffs when we have the draft?

Post #227 by AGENT ZERO » Wed Jul 25, 2018 4:54 pm

mooseOAK wrote:
AGENT ZERO wrote:
Whit Dickman wrote:
Didn't like that trade when it happened. And we traded him to make room for Jeff fucking Finger.

Oh and the 2nd rounder we got for Stralman was used to move up in the draft for Tyler fucking Biggs.

Oh and it turned into Brandon Saad.

Sigh


Brian Burke, Dave Nonis and JFJ set this organization so far back, it's a miracle that they were able to recover as quickly as they did.

Reilly
Kadri
Bozak
Van Riemsdyk
Nylander
Johnsson
Sparks
Leivo
Gardiner
Brown

From last year’s great season.



And made the playoffs once from 2005-06 to 2014-15 when Shanny took over.
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Re: Who needs the playoffs when we have the draft?

Post #228 by Whit Dickman » Wed Jul 25, 2018 5:37 pm

AGENT ZERO wrote:
Whit Dickman wrote:
AGENT ZERO wrote:
Brian Burke, Dave Nonis and JFJ set this organization so far back, it's a miracle that they were able to recover as quickly as they did.


Actually, JFJ was decent at the draft table. His problem was trading away picks.

Defining success as a player simply getting to 100 games played, this is Quinn's success per round:
1st: 75%
2nd: 20%
3rd: 37.5%
4th: 0%
5th: 67%
6th: 20%
7th: 0%

JFJ
1st: 100% (2 picks)
2nd: 100% (1 pick)
3rd: 0%
4th: 60%
5th: 0%
6th: 33.3%
7th: 50%

Burke:
1st: 50%
2nd: 0%
3rd: 0%
4th: 0%
5th: 0%
6th: 20%
7th: 0%

That is, Burke had 29 picks (including 8 in the first 2 rounds) and drafted 3 NHLers. Kadri, Rielly, and Brown. Which means he drafted two good players high in the draft (both good choices, but still) and got one hidden gem.

Just using the hfboard consensus probably would have done better.


okay I really need to get back to work


It was more of a general criticism than an indictment of any one area of management.


STFU AZ
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Re: Who needs the playoffs when we have the draft?

Post #229 by mooseOAK » Wed Jul 25, 2018 7:01 pm

AGENT ZERO wrote:
mooseOAK wrote:
AGENT ZERO wrote:
Brian Burke, Dave Nonis and JFJ set this organization so far back, it's a miracle that they were able to recover as quickly as they did.

Reilly
Kadri
Bozak
Van Riemsdyk
Nylander
Johnsson
Sparks
Leivo
Gardiner
Brown

From last year’s great season.



And made the playoffs once from 2005-06 to 2014-15 when Shanny took over.


With tremendous assistance from Burke era players.
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Re: Who needs the playoffs when we have the draft?

Post #230 by Dynrehab » Wed Jul 25, 2018 11:34 pm

Why no mention of Fletch? He was the worst of the group.
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Re: Who needs the playoffs when we have the draft?

Post #231 by paulster » Thu Jul 26, 2018 8:12 am

Dynrehab wrote:Why no mention of Fletch? He was the worst of the group.


I don’t know how you keep your job for a second after you mistakenly give Jeff fucking Finger a 15 year contract for $5M a season or whatever it was... BECAUSE YOU THOUGHT HE WAS ANOTHER GUY.

Seriously that’s something a fantasy noob does in his first year ever in a pool. Not a goddamn professional.
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Re: Who needs the playoffs when we have the draft?

Post #232 by AGENT ZERO » Thu Jul 26, 2018 9:25 am

Dynrehab wrote:Why no mention of Fletch? He was the worst of the group.


Honestly, I forgot he even existed, much less managed this team for a short period.
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Re: Who needs the playoffs when we have the draft?

Post #233 by LeafOfBread » Thu Jul 26, 2018 10:35 am

Dynrehab wrote:Why no mention of Fletch? He was the worst of the group.

I think we'd all like to forget about him, just like how he forgot Jeff Finger was not Kurt Sauer :fingered:

AGENT ZERO wrote:
Dynrehab wrote:Why no mention of Fletch? He was the worst of the group.


Honestly, I forgot he even existed, much less managed this team for a short period.

The damage he did in such a short time though was pretty impressive. If there was a damage/60 metric he'd be #1.

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