The Hero You Deserve

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Re: The Hero You Deserve

Post #101 by Philthy Thrillz » Wed Jul 04, 2018 10:25 am

And that's why I thanked Stammer for choosing TB. JT is a much better complete center.
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Re: The Hero You Deserve

Post #102 by LeafOfBread » Wed Jul 04, 2018 12:20 pm

Philthy Thrillz wrote:And that's why I thanked Stammer for choosing TB. JT is a much better complete center.

Stammer can go fuck himself!
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Re: The Hero You Deserve

Post #103 by paulster » Wed Jul 04, 2018 3:01 pm

LeafOfBread wrote:
Philthy Thrillz wrote:And that's why I thanked Stammer for choosing TB. JT is a much better complete center.

Stammer can go fuck himself!


Fuckin’ pussy.
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Re: The Hero You Deserve

Post #104 by Whit Dickman » Wed Jul 04, 2018 3:24 pm

Thomas Malthus wrote:Just hopped over to reddit and saw a post discussing Tavares' defensive game. These were posted in the comments and are interesting reads (especially since they were written before he became a Leaf).

Andrew Berkshire - How Tavares stacks up against top centres on free agency suitors. Berkshire compares Tavares to the centres from the teams Tavares listened to pitches from using that Sportslogiq data (where definitions are absent from the public realm, so take with some salt) and there's quite a lot to say about Matthews in there too.

Tavares has taken great leaps in his play without the puck in recent years, though he was better in 2016-17 than he was last year. In fact in 2016-17 he was one of, if not the most effective defensive forwards in the entire league.

Last season he remained strong, but on an Islanders team that was particularly bad defensively, his individual statistics suffered as well.

What’s interesting in looking at the plays without the puck by this group isn’t that Patrice Bergeron crushes everyone, that’s to be expected. It’s that Auston Matthews looks almost comparable. Matthews is once again far ahead of Tavares in impact in this area, and Bergeron’s contributions here also might be enough to push him ahead.


Berkshire has another article from 2016-17 season where he considers the top 5 finalists for the Selke and puts Tavares at 3rd behind Stone and Bergeron.

Ian Tulloch - The arguments for and against Toronto signing John Tavares. This one's paywalled at the Athletic. Tavares had the 7th best defensive Goals Above Replacement component last season. He's also had the third highest cumulative Goals Above Replacement since 2015 behind Crosby and Bergeron. Here's a snippet.

Adding a player like Tavares would go a long way towards improving the team’s defensive play, given that he’s become one of the better defensive centres in hockey over the past couple years. It’s flown under the radar, but when you compare his on-ice results to centres who face top lines (75th percentile in Quality of Competition or higher), he’s among the NHL’s truly elite two-way centres.


The difference between JT and Bozak, who's line was a complete liability in the Boston series, is astronomical.

If Kadri's line can score when forced into soft minutes by opposing coaches, it will become extremely difficult to beat the Leafs.

Projecting our goal scoring without even considering whoever becomes our LW and C on the 4th line and who ends up on our bottom pairing (but assuming a full season), we end up at around 280 goals.

AM = 45, JT = 40, Kadri = 30, Marleau = 25, Nylander = 25, Marner = 25, Brown = 20, Hyman, Kapanen, Johnsson = 15 each, Rielly = 8, Gardiner = 5, Zaitsev = 7, Demott = 5.
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Re: The Hero You Deserve

Post #105 by Whit Dickman » Wed Jul 04, 2018 3:25 pm

paulster wrote:
LeafOfBread wrote:
Philthy Thrillz wrote:And that's why I thanked Stammer for choosing TB. JT is a much better complete center.

Stammer can go fuck himself!


Fuckin’ pussy.


Hopefully, we get a cup. will feel quite a sting
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Re: The Hero You Deserve

Post #106 by Thomas Malthus » Wed Jul 04, 2018 6:30 pm

Stolen from reddit:

"If you torture the data long enough, it will confess to anything." - Ronald Coase
"[...]all models are wrong, some are useful." - George E. P. Box
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Re: The Hero You Deserve

Post #107 by mooseOAK » Wed Jul 04, 2018 10:00 pm

It was only a matter of time before someone would explain Tavares with numbers for us.
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Re: The Hero You Deserve

Post #108 by shredz » Thu Jul 05, 2018 3:03 am

I've seen Tavares grow over the years and he is a much more complete player then Stamkos. I'd even say he's more dynamic in a bunch of aspects. When he wants to really win a game, he is a dominant force.
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Re: The Hero You Deserve

Post #109 by shredz » Thu Jul 05, 2018 3:06 am

I'd be lying if I said I wasn't jealous to be honest. He's really fucking good. :why:
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Re: The Hero You Deserve

Post #110 by Curry Rage » Thu Jul 05, 2018 3:41 am

mooseOAK wrote:It was only a matter of time before someone would explain Tavares with numbers for us.


Is he still good?
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Re: The Hero You Deserve

Post #111 by AGENT ZERO » Thu Jul 05, 2018 9:02 am

Whit Dickman wrote:
Thomas Malthus wrote:Just hopped over to reddit and saw a post discussing Tavares' defensive game. These were posted in the comments and are interesting reads (especially since they were written before he became a Leaf).

Andrew Berkshire - How Tavares stacks up against top centres on free agency suitors. Berkshire compares Tavares to the centres from the teams Tavares listened to pitches from using that Sportslogiq data (where definitions are absent from the public realm, so take with some salt) and there's quite a lot to say about Matthews in there too.

Tavares has taken great leaps in his play without the puck in recent years, though he was better in 2016-17 than he was last year. In fact in 2016-17 he was one of, if not the most effective defensive forwards in the entire league.

Last season he remained strong, but on an Islanders team that was particularly bad defensively, his individual statistics suffered as well.

What’s interesting in looking at the plays without the puck by this group isn’t that Patrice Bergeron crushes everyone, that’s to be expected. It’s that Auston Matthews looks almost comparable. Matthews is once again far ahead of Tavares in impact in this area, and Bergeron’s contributions here also might be enough to push him ahead.


Berkshire has another article from 2016-17 season where he considers the top 5 finalists for the Selke and puts Tavares at 3rd behind Stone and Bergeron.

Ian Tulloch - The arguments for and against Toronto signing John Tavares. This one's paywalled at the Athletic. Tavares had the 7th best defensive Goals Above Replacement component last season. He's also had the third highest cumulative Goals Above Replacement since 2015 behind Crosby and Bergeron. Here's a snippet.

Adding a player like Tavares would go a long way towards improving the team’s defensive play, given that he’s become one of the better defensive centres in hockey over the past couple years. It’s flown under the radar, but when you compare his on-ice results to centres who face top lines (75th percentile in Quality of Competition or higher), he’s among the NHL’s truly elite two-way centres.


The difference between JT and Bozak, who's line was a complete liability in the Boston series, is astronomical.

If Kadri's line can score when forced into soft minutes by opposing coaches, it will become extremely difficult to beat the Leafs.

Projecting our goal scoring without even considering whoever becomes our LW and C on the 4th line and who ends up on our bottom pairing (but assuming a full season), we end up at around 280 goals.

AM = 45, JT = 40, Kadri = 30, Marleau = 25, Nylander = 25, Marner = 25, Brown = 20, Hyman, Kapanen, Johnsson = 15 each, Rielly = 8, Gardiner = 5, Zaitsev = 7, Demott = 5.


Those all seem high, where are you getting those numbers from?
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Re: The Hero You Deserve

Post #112 by LeafOfBread » Thu Jul 05, 2018 10:40 am

Image
:donger:
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Re: The Hero You Deserve

Post #113 by mooseOAK » Thu Jul 05, 2018 11:19 am

Curry Rage wrote:
mooseOAK wrote:It was only a matter of time before someone would explain Tavares with numbers for us.


Is he still good?

I still can’t tell which numbers are good and which aren’t so can only hope.
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Re: The Hero You Deserve

Post #114 by Philthy Thrillz » Thu Jul 05, 2018 11:43 am

LeafOfBread wrote:Image
:donger:



Could you please do the same charts for maxipad?
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Re: The Hero You Deserve

Post #115 by WTF » Thu Jul 05, 2018 11:49 am

R.I.P. Weber's knee
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Re: The Hero You Deserve

Post #116 by Whit Dickman » Thu Jul 05, 2018 12:19 pm

AGENT ZERO wrote:
Whit Dickman wrote:
Thomas Malthus wrote:Just hopped over to reddit and saw a post discussing Tavares' defensive game. These were posted in the comments and are interesting reads (especially since they were written before he became a Leaf).

Andrew Berkshire - How Tavares stacks up against top centres on free agency suitors. Berkshire compares Tavares to the centres from the teams Tavares listened to pitches from using that Sportslogiq data (where definitions are absent from the public realm, so take with some salt) and there's quite a lot to say about Matthews in there too.



Berkshire has another article from 2016-17 season where he considers the top 5 finalists for the Selke and puts Tavares at 3rd behind Stone and Bergeron.

Ian Tulloch - The arguments for and against Toronto signing John Tavares. This one's paywalled at the Athletic. Tavares had the 7th best defensive Goals Above Replacement component last season. He's also had the third highest cumulative Goals Above Replacement since 2015 behind Crosby and Bergeron. Here's a snippet.



The difference between JT and Bozak, who's line was a complete liability in the Boston series, is astronomical.

If Kadri's line can score when forced into soft minutes by opposing coaches, it will become extremely difficult to beat the Leafs.

Projecting our goal scoring without even considering whoever becomes our LW and C on the 4th line and who ends up on our bottom pairing (but assuming a full season), we end up at around 280 goals.

AM = 45, JT = 40, Kadri = 30, Marleau = 25, Nylander = 25, Marner = 25, Brown = 20, Hyman, Kapanen, Johnsson = 15 each, Rielly = 8, Gardiner = 5, Zaitsev = 7, Demott = 5.


Those all seem high, where are you getting those numbers from?


I made them up. If you project based on the last three seasons it totals to around 253 goals.
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Re: The Hero You Deserve

Post #117 by AGENT ZERO » Thu Jul 05, 2018 1:22 pm

Got it, thanks.
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Re: The Hero You Deserve

Post #118 by Thomas Malthus » Thu Jul 05, 2018 2:03 pm

Ian Tulloch has an Athletic piece about Tavares.

He looks at a bunch of numbers, including several GAR/WAR models, zone entry/exit, passing, penalty kill data. Tavares is awesome at transitioning he puck into the offensive zone and out of the defensive zone. Awesome at penalty killing. Awesome at passing. Awesome at scoring and only a handful of players are as awesome at all those things like him.

His conclusion is that Tavares is a top 5 centre and after applying standard aging curves he should provide Malkin value for like four years, Schiefele value for two years and Stastny value for the last year. Of course, superstars probably age differently and so that might be a fairly conservative estimate of the value we can expect.
"If you torture the data long enough, it will confess to anything." - Ronald Coase
"[...]all models are wrong, some are useful." - George E. P. Box
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Re: The Hero You Deserve

Post #119 by Curry Rage » Thu Jul 05, 2018 2:29 pm

So, he's like good and stuff?
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Re: The Hero You Deserve

Post #120 by Thomas Malthus » Thu Jul 05, 2018 2:34 pm

Curry Rage wrote:So, he's like good and stuff?


Apparently. And here I thought we were signing a younger version of Bozak.
"If you torture the data long enough, it will confess to anything." - Ronald Coase
"[...]all models are wrong, some are useful." - George E. P. Box
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Re: The Hero You Deserve

Post #121 by AGENT ZERO » Thu Jul 05, 2018 2:46 pm

Thomas Malthus wrote:Ian Tulloch has an Athletic piece about Tavares.

He looks at a bunch of numbers, including several GAR/WAR models, zone entry/exit, passing, penalty kill data. Tavares is awesome at transitioning he puck into the offensive zone and out of the defensive zone. Awesome at penalty killing. Awesome at passing. Awesome at scoring and only a handful of players are as awesome at all those things like him.

His conclusion is that Tavares is a top 5 centre and after applying standard aging curves he should provide Malkin value for like four years, Schiefele value for two years and Stastny value for the last year. Of course, superstars probably age differently and so that might be a fairly conservative estimate of the value we can expect.


What a great summer, I still can't believe any of this is for reals.
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Re: The Hero You Deserve

Post #122 by WTF » Thu Jul 05, 2018 2:51 pm

Thomas Malthus wrote:
Curry Rage wrote:So, he's like good and stuff?


Apparently. And here I thought we were signing a younger version of Bozak.


That would be McJesus as his favourite player is/was Bozie Bozak.
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Re: The Hero You Deserve

Post #123 by Geo » Thu Jul 05, 2018 9:31 pm



Image
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Re: The Hero You Deserve

Post #124 by LeafOfBread » Thu Jul 05, 2018 10:43 pm

Geo wrote:https://twitter.com/e_presement/status/1014920428567973888

Image

What a fucking virgin
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Re: The Hero You Deserve

Post #125 by shredz » Fri Jul 06, 2018 1:51 am

If you need a goal put Cory Matthews on Shawn Tavares wing and watch magic ensue. Tavares will get him the puck wherever he is in shooting position. He's made complete slugs look like All Star.First Team.
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Re: The Hero You Deserve

Post #126 by Thomas Malthus » Fri Jul 06, 2018 12:32 pm

Dellow has an interesting article talking about elite players driving results using Tavares and Bozak.

tl;dr Bozak isn't good without JvR or Marner. Tavares is fine without anybody he's played with (also obligatory LOLOLOL Buffalo).

Some people reading this are going to go “Great, you’ve made a reasonable case that there’s a difference between Tyler Bozak and John Tavares, which everybody already knew, dummy.”

That’s fair enough, I guess, but there’s utility in being able to work through this stuff. It also gives you some ideas about how the game works – non-elite players can put up elite numbers with elite players. Again, some might say that’s obvious but Buffalo spent $67-million betting that Matt Moulson and Kyle Okposo were bigger drivers of their numbers than they actually were.

This exercise also gives us some insight into a challenge that the Maple Leafs are going to face in the fall: how should they organize their lines to get the best out of them?
"If you torture the data long enough, it will confess to anything." - Ronald Coase
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Re: The Hero You Deserve

Post #127 by mooseOAK » Fri Jul 06, 2018 2:42 pm

Space does need to be filled.
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Re: The Hero You Deserve

Post #128 by LeafOfBread » Mon Jul 09, 2018 3:00 pm

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Re: The Hero You Deserve

Post #129 by Philthy Thrillz » Mon Jul 09, 2018 10:03 pm

Thats fucking awesome. Any full video out?
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Re: The Hero You Deserve

Post #130 by MonkeyWrench » Tue Jul 10, 2018 4:53 pm

Philthy Thrillz wrote:Thats fucking awesome. Any full video out?


I don't think they'll produce a video of usual episode length (10-12min).
They've done these little 1-3min vids in the past. None of them have had followups.
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Re: The Hero You Deserve

Post #131 by MonkeyWrench » Tue Jul 10, 2018 4:58 pm

If you guys are into it, they filmed a tournament where a bunch of leafs play each other in nhl 18.
Each game is 1on1. Twitch-like. ~6-10minutes highlights shown. You get some chirping, some serious straight faces, and some noobs. It's a good watch for something light and fun.
You have register to gain access to it though.

https://leafsnation.mapleleafs.com/lnn/tml-face
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Re: The Hero You Deserve

Post #132 by WTF » Tue Jul 10, 2018 5:08 pm

MonkeyWrench wrote:If you guys are into it, they filmed a tournament where a bunch of leafs play each other in nhl 18.
Each game is 1on1. Twitch-like. ~6-10minutes highlights shown. You get some chirping, some serious straight faces, and some noobs. It's a good watch for something light and fun.
You have register to gain access to it though.

https://leafsnation.mapleleafs.com/lnn/tml-face


It offers some pretty good behind-the-scenes clips. Some are easily memeable.

"This man's not on my level"


"That's the biggest joke I've ever friggin' seen in my life"


"Do you believe in miracles? WOOOOOOO!!!"


"Let's go! Let's go!"


All the streamable clips are shamelessly stolen from a Reddit thread. All credit goes to the original creator.
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Re: The Hero You Deserve

Post #133 by MonkeyWrench » Tue Jul 10, 2018 5:15 pm

Any game that involves Matty Martin and Marner was incredibly entertaining hah.
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Re: The Hero You Deserve

Post #134 by MonkeyWrench » Tue Jul 10, 2018 5:17 pm

WTF wrote:
MonkeyWrench wrote:If you guys are into it, they filmed a tournament where a bunch of leafs play each other in nhl 18.
Each game is 1on1. Twitch-like. ~6-10minutes highlights shown. You get some chirping, some serious straight faces, and some noobs. It's a good watch for something light and fun.
You have register to gain access to it though.

https://leafsnation.mapleleafs.com/lnn/tml-face


It offers some pretty good behind-the-scenes clips. Some are easily memeable.

"This man's not on my level"



Bahaha.
The meme is strong with this one.
:trump:
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Re: The Hero You Deserve

Post #135 by WTF » Tue Jul 10, 2018 5:27 pm

The best thing about these videos is that the personality of these guys come through. They usually give the stock hockey player answers during interviews so it's good to see the personalities behind the professional demeanours.

Funny as hell watching Marner repeatedly playing with Martin as one of his trio.
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Re: The Hero You Deserve

Post #136 by LeafOfBread » Tue Jul 10, 2018 8:52 pm

“I was extremely disappointed with the window of interviews; that was not the intention of how the league and union intended it,” said Lamoriello, declining to go into further details as to what irked him about the process. “I was very disappointed with the way the process was. I’ve never seen it like this one.”


Dubas - 1, Lou - 0
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Re: The Hero You Deserve

Post #137 by vf » Wed Jul 11, 2018 11:27 am

Re: Tavares?
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Re: The Hero You Deserve

Post #138 by LeafOfBread » Wed Jul 11, 2018 11:31 am

vf wrote:Re: Tavares?

Yes
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Re: The Hero You Deserve

Post #139 by vf » Wed Jul 11, 2018 11:36 am

Susf. Lou doesn't like getting caught on the other side of the swinging door.
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Re: The Hero You Deserve

Post #140 by LeafOfBread » Wed Jul 11, 2018 2:42 pm

https://www.theplayerstribune.com/en-us ... -leafs-nhl

Heh, after so much bitching from Islanders fans about not getting a thoughtful goodbye or a Players Tribune article, turns out Tavares did write one.

Also shows it was a tough decision unlike the asshole Islander fans who think John had his mind made up a year ago and he fucked the team by not asking for a trade 'knowing he was going to Toronto the whole time'.

But a lot has been made, over the last couple of weeks of this process, about my having grown up a Leafs fan — and I feel like I owe it to you all to at least explain (beyond some tweet, or sound byte, or someone else’s article or whatever) what that means to me.

And the truth is … it means a lot.

The Leafs weren’t just my first hockey love. They were basically my first human memory.

I’ll never forget it: May 3rd, 1993. Leafs vs. Blues, Game 1, second OT. And of course it all comes down to Dougie vs. CuJo. Gilmour — back of the net … Andreychuk in front with Borschevsky … and there is Gilmour, waiting, waiting … around the net, waiting … HE’S OPEN!! GILMOUR — SOLO JOB … AND HE’S WON IT!!



I don’t even think I was three years old yet for that game. But I can still remember — so exactly — where we were when Doug scored: Just my dad and I, sitting together in front of the TV, all nerves, up on the edge of our seats, on our old couch, way way way past my bedtime. And then the two of us, just — god. Erupting as that puck slipped through. I’m sure I didn’t know any of the rules, or even have the slightest clue of what it all meant. (My guess is that my father just said something like, “OK, Johnny — root for the team wearing white here.”) And it was as simple as that: I was a little kid, wanting to stay up late, taking cues from his dad. But, man — that first cue was all I needed. That game was it for me. I was hooked.

My first time in Maple Leaf Gardens, I think I was six years old — so it was probably around the winter of ‘96. And I just remember walking in … and being speechless. Like, truly speechless — you could have knocked me over with a feather. I was in total awe. You’re going through these hallways … seeing all this memorabilia from the ‘50s and ‘60s … all of these banners, and the old team portraits, and the action shots — and then of course the iconic images of those guys lifting the Cup. There’s almost this, like … glow to it, that you can’t really explain. The whole thing felt holy. It was like going to church.

And then you get to the rink, to the ice … to that first little patch of white that catches your eye through the concourse … and man, I’m telling you: it’s over. Or at least it was over for me. That first trip to Maple Leaf Gardens, with my mom and my dad — that was the day when I think I first sort of saw my future. That was the day when I started to put that puzzle together of, like, OK, this is something beyond very cool. This is something beyond just, you know, being a kid from this city, and loving this team, and watching this game. This is … I mean … this is me, now. This is what I want to do with my life. Right here, in this building, like these guys are doing tonight. Just — that was it. You know what I mean?

I’d played hockey before.

But now I was a hockey player.

So then as far as my Boyhood Leafs Dream goes — just to set the record straight:

I absolutely was “Pajama Boy.”

You know, guilty as charged. And I absolutely deserve every bit of ribbing that I got on that one: I had the pajamas, I had the bedsheets, the blankets, the pillow cases. Man, it was just — it was an absurd, obsessed amount of Leafs stuff. And it was the time of my life.


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Philthy Thrillz
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Re: The Hero You Deserve

Post #141 by Philthy Thrillz » Wed Jul 11, 2018 3:21 pm

Its better on a personal to go quietly. Whoin there mind would ask for a trade cause hes going to a different team. That's horseshit.

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