NHL33 wrote:Minor league baseball doesn't count. Nobody knows what they're talking about when it comes to baseball prospects, you might as well be talking about fictitious characters tbqh. It's like pretending to be a hockey scout from your basement but with even less accountability.
When I was scouting, I was making around $15k a year doing it. I supplemented that by selling sports memorabilia online. One of my biggest sources of income within that was selling cards of baseball prospects.
I came up with a formula that predicted not major league success, but which guys had the best chance of making the majors and being the type of player that collectors pay the most for. And price of the card was a factor.
For example, for pitchers I think the formula had something to do with the ratio of K/IP to WHIP. For hitters, I can't remember how the formula worked, but I looked at AB, SO, HR, OPS, age and level of play. For both hitters and pitchers, I specifically looked for players who were stuck behind All Stars at their position in their organization, as those are the players most likely to be dealt (or better yet, they start pushing the All Star to where the team deals the All Star). Those prospects sold for a lot less, because most prospectors were too dumb to see the second half of the equation.
For most prospectors, being correct about 12-15% of the time was usually profitable, as the cards of prospects usually sell for a small fraction of what they do when they make the majors. I was at 30% in the 06 RC class, 34% in 07, and 40% in 08. I stopped when the economy collapsed - the first thing people cut back on is their hobby. But I made my money back several times over and still have a garage full of stock. When I get the time, I'm gonna start selling again just to get rid of it.