DD2013 Semifinal: Tampa Bay vs Winnipeg

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Who Advances?

Poll ended at Fri Sep 13, 2013 9:44 am

Nibblet and the Tampa Bay Lightning
8
80%
Rogers Pancreas and the Winnipeg Jets
2
20%
 
Total votes: 10
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DD2013 Semifinal: Tampa Bay vs Winnipeg

Post #1 by Nibblet » Thu Sep 05, 2013 11:51 am

To GMs:
Post your line-ups, special teams, captains, style of play, tactics and anything else you can imagine about your team here. Explain why you think your team would prevail in a 7 game playoff series and what strategies your team would use to do so.

It is up to you to ensure that your opponent is cap compliant. If you find out they aren't, you may win by DQ.

As a GM you must vote in every contest once the poll is up. This is to ensure we have the bare minimum number of votes in case other broads don't step up. If you don't vote in all other match-ups, your own team will not progress.

No vote rigging is allowed. You are allowed to encourage other posters to vote in this thread but you cannot ask them to vote for you.

To non-GMs:
Please look at the line-ups and the arguments of each GM for their respective teams. Then vote for the team you think will win a 7 game playoff series. Try to remain impartial. It's not a requirement but please explain in a post why you vote for the team you voted for.

Poll will be up later, once both GMs have posted their line-ups and opening arguments.
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Post #2 by Nibblet » Thu Sep 05, 2013 11:52 am

[CENTER][SIZE="7"]Tampa Bay Lightning[/size]
Image[/CENTER]
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Post #3 by Pennywise » Thu Sep 05, 2013 12:01 pm

Wheres Scott Thornton?
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The Winnipeg Hawerjets

Post #4 by Rogers Pancreas » Thu Sep 05, 2013 11:09 pm

Evander Kane - Henrik Zetterberg (C) - Steve Downie
Andrew Ladd (A) - Eric Staal (A) - Matt Read
Colin Wilson - Shawn Matthias - David Moss
Tye McGinn - Brian Boyle - Jamie McGinn

Marc Staal - Alex Pietrangelo
Tobias Enstrom - Zach Bogosian
Erik Gustafsson - Justin Braun

Jamie Reimer
Jason Labarbera


Some minor adjustments were made to reach this iteration, all of which were justifiable with a bit of data.

Downie and Zetterberg give Crosby a face full of spunk.
* In three years, Downie's outscored his opposite by a margin of 0.60GF/60MIN, averaging well over 3.00 GFON/60 in each of his last three seasons. When he's not on the ice, his teammates have been outscored to the tune of 0.38 GA/60MIN. With a Penalties Drawn/60MIN to Penalties Taken/60MIN ratio of 1.10, it only makes sense to have him out against an ill-tempered star-forward such as Crosby. If the event the two wind up in the box together, it's a net win for the Hawerjets.

* Evander Kane's the run-away candidate for LW, using the same criterion. He has a 0.09 differential relative to his teammates which isn't earth-shattering, but he's damn competent, averaging a 2.90 GFON/60. Nail Yakupov, by comparison, has a 2.62 GFON/60, but brings none of the grit. Kane's also the Jets second most efficient rat, with an average Penalties Drawn/60MIN to Penalties Taken/60MIN ratio of 1.7.

* That Viking carrying a Conn Smythe leads the pack with a Penalties Drawn efficiency of 1.9. He's also the most well-rounded defensive center of the team, averaging 2.72 GAON/60 since 2008, and an average GFON/60 of 3.19. There might be no Lidstrom on the back-end, but he has two damn fine defensemen in Staal and Pietrangelo backing him.

Staal brings his O-game to the party.
* Ladd and Read are both excellent complimentary players, but they'd be worthless in a 7-game series against Stamkos and St. Louis without a little help. Enter Staal. Superficially, he's the third best offensive weapon this team has (behind Downie and Zetterberg), but he comes with asterisk. Staal has been playing on a miserable Carolina squad for his entire career, and to fully illustrate the point consider the goal differentials between Staal and his teammates:

At even-strength, Staal has been out-scored by approximately .02 Goals/60Min. Compared to his teammates, however, his -0.02 Goals/60MIN differential pales to their -0.32 Goals/60MIN. Not even Zetterberg's Wings suffer as the Hurricanes do without their captain. At a blush, he'll at least be able to keep pace with Stamkos, St. Louis, and Johansson who was a liability until Ovechkin exploded in 2013. (Johansson was outscored at even-strength in 2012, while his teammates outscored the opposition, making him one of the weakest players on Washington's roster.)

SEASON NAME GFON/60 GAON/60 GFOFF/60 GAOFF/60 OZS OZF PT/60 PD/60[SIZE="1"]

2011-12 STEVE DOWNIE 3.26 3.26 2.48 2.46 51.1 50.3 1.2 0.9
2010-11 STEVE DOWNIE 3.38 2.60 2.42 2.58 50.0 50.4 1.6 1.9
2009-10 STEVE DOWNIE 3.38 2.36 1.80 2.81 55.7 52.2 1.8 2.2
0.60 -0.38 0.98 1.3 0.1

2011-12 HENRIK ZETTERBERG 3.57 2.64 2.51 1.71 54.5 52.8 0.5 0.7
2010-11 HENRIK ZETTERBERG 2.79 2.89 2.60 2.48 47.6 50.8 0.7 1.1
2009-10 HENRIK ZETTERBERG 3.32 2.78 1.92 2.25 50.9 50.7 0.7 1.0
2008-09 HENRIK ZETTERBERG 3.07 2.57 2.88 2.32 51.6 53.4 0.4 1.6
0.47 0.29 0.18 -0.8 0.5

2011-12 ANDREW LADD 2.61 2.95 2.31 2.33 57.8 57.4 0.9 0.8
2010-11 ANDREW LADD 2.73 3.09 2.04 2.52 50.6 53.1 0.6 0.4
2009-10 ANDREW LADD 3.09 2.91 2.66 2.11 56.1 53.6 0.7 0.7
-0.17 0.02 -0.19 0.1 -0.1


2011-12 EVANDER KANE 3.13 2.64 2.27 2.58 57.6 53.0 1.0 1.5
2010-11 EVANDER KANE 2.39 3.39 2.27 2.47 54.5 54.3 0.6 1.2
2009-10 EVANDER KANE 3.19 3.04 2.72 2.85 47.1 52.2 1.6 2.6
-0.12 -0.21 0.09 -0.1 0.7

2011-12 ERIC STAAL 2.65 3.45 1.93 2.18 50.1 52.3 0.9 1.1
2010-11 ERIC STAAL 2.98 3.22 2.24 2.26 49.8 51.4 1.1 1.1
2009-10 ERIC STAAL 3.57 3.17 1.96 2.59 51.8 51.1 1.1 0.9
2008-09 ERIC STAAL 3.12 2.57 1.91 2.29 52.0 51.9 0.7 1.6
-0.02 -0.32 0.30 -0.8 0.2[/size]
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Post #5 by Ironchef Chris Wok » Fri Sep 06, 2013 12:32 am

PLAY JUSTIN BRAUN OVER MIKE WEBER DAMMIT
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Post #6 by mayoradamwest » Fri Sep 06, 2013 2:14 pm

Eric Staal is offensively behind Downie? What?
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Post #7 by Rogers Pancreas » Fri Sep 06, 2013 4:21 pm

mayoradamwest wrote:Eric Staal is offensively behind Downie? What?
Superficially, he's the third best offensive weapon this team has (behind Downie and Zetterberg)
If you're looking purely at the numbers, he is. There exists a caveat, however. Staal has received more ESTOI compared to Downie over the course of their respective careers, so his offensive production per 60 minutes played isn't as impressive. If you were to look at how many goals he's assisted in scoring, or goals he's been on the ice for, (848 through 642), Staal would have a decided edge. You have to decide what's important to you. Total goals, which can be influenced by TOI (i.e. Kyle Calder), or goals relative to minutes played, or maybe a judgement call based on the two figures.

EDIT: I'd almost be interested in exploring how productive Eric Staal has been at ES compared to Crosby over their respective careers.
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Post #8 by clawfirst » Fri Sep 06, 2013 5:48 pm

Proof that statistical analysis is not only unecessary but will cause brain trauma.
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Post #9 by Cao » Fri Sep 06, 2013 6:10 pm

Rogers Pancreas wrote:If you're looking purely at the numbers, he is. There exists a caveat, however. Staal has received more ESTOI compared to Downie over the course of their respective careers, so his offensive production per 60 minutes played isn't as impressive. If you were to look at how many goals he's assisted in scoring, or goals he's been on the ice for, (848 through 642), Staal would have a decided edge. You have to decide what's important to you. Total goals, which can be influenced by TOI (i.e. Kyle Calder), or goals relative to minutes played, or maybe a judgement call based on the two figures.

EDIT: I'd almost be interested in exploring how productive Eric Staal has been at ES compared to Crosby over their respective careers.


of forwards with 4000 minutes played from 07-13

1. Sidney Crosby 3.46 points/60
2. Evgeni Malkin 2.73
3. Henrik Sedin 2.68
4. Daniel Sedin 2.63
...
33. Alex Burrows 2.11
34. Eric Staal 2.10
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Post #10 by mayoradamwest » Sat Sep 07, 2013 12:00 pm

i remain undecided.
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Post #11 by Bow Tie » Sat Sep 07, 2013 12:43 pm

mayoradamwest wrote:i remain undecided.


I echo maw's statement. Nibblet's top 5 are dirty but I still don't like his defense much, while I really like RP's defense and the rest of the team might just have enough piss and vinegar to take it


Nibblet. RP. Persuade me.
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Post #12 by Pennywise » Sat Sep 07, 2013 12:48 pm

Nigglet. I like his forwards and goaltending more. Both are solidly constructed teams but Crosby tips the scale for me. Anderson is capable of stealing games as well. Reimer has the worst rebound control I have ever seen and I'm also a Leafs fan (second team)

Throw pucks on net and watch them bounce right back into the slot for Stamkos/Crosby etc to put home.
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Post #13 by Cao » Sat Sep 07, 2013 1:19 pm

Reimer is also capable of stealing games, and Anderson's '13 season seems to be more of a statistical outlier than anything else.
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Post #14 by Rogers Pancreas » Sat Sep 07, 2013 2:47 pm

Cao wrote:Reimer is also capable of stealing games, and Anderson's '13 season seems to be more of a statistical outlier than anything else.
I don't see a huge difference between the two, honestly. They're both good, capable starters, but certainly not to be confused with Hall-of-Famers (players that have historically stood out for their high-level of play and consistency.) This especially holds true for Anderson who, at 32, has never spent more than three season with a single organization because of his inconsistency. Reimer still has time to prove himself, but in the end they'll both be lost in the history books.
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Post #15 by Nibblet » Sat Sep 07, 2013 2:57 pm

Eric Staal is one of the most overrated players in the NHL.

He's had exactly 2 seasons above 80 points. He's a perennial 70 point player who's regarded as a franchise center by many.
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Post #16 by Rogers Pancreas » Sat Sep 07, 2013 3:44 pm

mayoradamwest wrote:i remain undecided.


Prison Mike wrote:I echo maw's statement. Nibblet's top 5 are dirty but I still don't like his defense much, while I really like RP's defense and the rest of the team might just have enough piss and vinegar to take it


Nibblet. RP. Persuade me.
I don't know what you're looking for. To me, it's pretty clear. Tampa Bay's advantages, which are pretty impressive, were offset by their own personnel decisions.

Sidney Crosby
Position: C ▪ Shoots: Left
Height: 5-11 ▪ Weight: 200 lbs.
36GP 49GF 21GA

Henrik Zetterberg
Position: C ▪ Shoots: Left
Height: 5-11 ▪ Weight: 197 lbs.
48GP 27GF 24GA

Is that enough of an advantage to mask Yakupov?

Steven Stamkos
Position: C ▪ Shoots: Right
Height: 6-1 ▪ Weight: 188 lbs.
48GP 47GF 46GA

Eric Staal
Position: C ▪ Shoots: Left
Height: 6-4 ▪ Weight: 205 lbs
48GP 52GF 41GA

How about Jack Johnson?

David Backes
Position: C ▪ Shoots: Right
Height: 6-3 ▪ Weight: 225 lbs.
48GP 27GF 23GA

Shawn Matthias
Position: C ▪ Shoots: Left
Height: 6-4 ▪ Weight: 220 lbs.
48GP 27GF 35GA

Tim Jackman?

... Shawn Thornton?

--------------------

Cao, thank you for http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/players.php It pointed out that Downie isn't nearly as good as I was making him out to be, and Yakupov, Jackman, and Thornton aren't complete liabilities. It also pointed out that I have a decided advantage at wing, from the first-line down to the fourth. At center, I have the advantage with Staal outclassing Stamkos, Zetterberg outclassing Crosby, and Boyle severely outclassing McClement. Backes had the decided advantage against Matthias, which shouldn't have been all that surprising given his history.

A look at the defense was surprising as well, as it indicates Yandle and Hedman hold up well against Pietrangelo and Staal. Johnson and Alzner don't, however, compare all that favorably to Enstrom and Bogosian. And the same holds true for Larsson and MacDonald, who are severely outclassed by Gustafsson and Braun.
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