stock tok etc.

..et d'autres discussions ennuyeuses
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Re: stock tok etc.

Post #1751 by PredsFan77 » Sat Aug 18, 2018 9:38 am

buy commodities
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Re: stock tok etc.

Post #1752 by mayoradamwest » Sat Aug 18, 2018 10:00 am

I actually just bought a coffee
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Re: stock tok etc.

Post #1753 by Ricard_Persson » Fri Sep 07, 2018 10:25 am

A hot tip came in to the desk.

CNSX: HUGE

Insanely risky, closed at 38 cents yesterday.
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Re: stock tok etc.

Post #1754 by Craig » Fri Sep 07, 2018 10:26 am

But what's the upside?
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Re: stock tok etc.

Post #1755 by Ricard_Persson » Fri Sep 07, 2018 12:40 pm

Probably 200%-300%, I don't know. It's up 32% today.

I didn't buy any yet.
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Re: stock tok etc.

Post #1756 by Craig » Fri Sep 07, 2018 12:43 pm

... It's not....HUGE?
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Re: stock tok etc.

Post #1757 by Ricard_Persson » Fri Sep 07, 2018 1:06 pm

It could be huge. I've been slacking, have been 100% cash since selling SHOP a few months back. Missed a couple runs on RCH. HUGE is probably one that I should put a little bit in and forget about it. It's not on Stockcharts since it's new and small and it's weird, but it's like I can't "see" it unless I see the chart. I feel like I'm buying blind.

Speaking of charts Currency Exchange is crazy. So sideways and so even every day since May. It's gotta go to the next level soon. It's got a great base at $30. And some large buys over the past while.

http://schrts.co/PTqe6f
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Re: stock tok etc.

Post #1758 by Ricard_Persson » Mon Sep 10, 2018 10:25 am

I guess I should have bought some HUGE.
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Re: stock tok etc.

Post #1759 by Ricard_Persson » Fri Sep 14, 2018 10:30 am

So I'll try and buy some HUGE at 40 cents. Not sure if it will get that low. Possibly. I don't like putting and order in but I think I will leave an order at 40 cents for a few days. A bit dangerous if it really tanks but long term 40 is safe,

Shopify with a nice breakout after in closed over $193 and now has leveled out the 50DMA. I should have bought, just didn't pull the trigger. I think it will probably run to test $232 for a third time.

http://schrts.co/jdNpBi
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Re: stock tok etc.

Post #1760 by Ricard_Persson » Wed Sep 19, 2018 11:07 am

I bought some more shopify. I don't know. It should go up? Chart looks decent? 4/20 is coming next month to Ontario so maybe the baked sales numbers will be better than expected.
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Re: stock tok etc.

Post #1761 by Ricard_Persson » Wed Sep 19, 2018 11:07 am

I bought some more shopify. I don't know. It should go up? Chart looks decent? 4/20 is coming next month to Ontario so maybe the baked sales numbers will be better than expected.
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Re: stock tok etc.

Post #1762 by PredsFan77 » Thu Oct 04, 2018 11:06 pm

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Re: stock tok etc.

Post #1763 by Slick Nick » Thu Oct 11, 2018 2:41 am

Ricard_Persson wrote:I bought some more shopify. I don't know. It should go up? Chart looks decent? 4/20 is coming next month to Ontario so maybe the baked sales numbers will be better than expected.


Hindsight is 20/20 but the chart looked pretty bad on sept 19th...

double topped, MACD way off, TD sequential 7, heading for resistance.. you should be buying breakouts or support, never potential breakouts after a double top, you bought straight into resistance.


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Re: stock tok etc.

Post #1764 by PredsFan77 » Thu Oct 11, 2018 9:56 am

Wtf is a sequential 7
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Re: stock tok etc.

Post #1765 by PredsFan77 » Thu Oct 11, 2018 9:56 am

Also the double top and declining MACD (or RSI) is called divergence
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Re: stock tok etc.

Post #1766 by Slick Nick » Thu Oct 11, 2018 11:06 am

PredsFan77 wrote:Also the double top and declining MACD (or RSI) is called divergence


Didn't want to get too technical.

PredsFan77 wrote:Wtf is a sequential 7


Tom Demark sequential indicator... not the best indicator but I always found it helpful to visualize momentum.



Daily Shopify chart: The red lines are "red nines" and indicate buying opportunities... pretty much indicates seller exhaustion. Tomorrow is going to be a "red nine", technically a good buy but the market looks very much like it's about to take a dump... pretty much every major stock is on or near a red nine..next few days are going to be make or break for the whole market.

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Re: stock tok etc.

Post #1767 by Dog » Thu Oct 11, 2018 10:50 pm

Guys, you peeps are basically doing horoscopes.
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Re: stock tok etc.

Post #1768 by Slick Nick » Thu Oct 11, 2018 11:11 pm

Dog wrote:Guys, you peeps are basically doing horoscopes.


I came to the conclusion that indicators are pretty much self fulfilling prophecy.. if everyone uses them, then they dictate the market. If every one sees that the RSI is way overbought, people start selling and the price falls, then when it's way oversold, people start buying... if you're cautious and patient, use stop losses, then you will make more better trades. This being said, long term investment is a different thing, but weekly and monthly charts are helpful to find a good entry point.
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Re: stock tok etc.

Post #1769 by Slick Nick » Thu Oct 11, 2018 11:18 pm

DJI weekly with TD:

Image

Every buy signal except for one (2008 crash) was a great entry point, same for Shopify, same for pretty much every FANG. While people are panic selling because the market is dropping, you're waiting patiently for a buy signal, buy, set a stop loss about 10% lower than your entry point. It's a better way of trading than just buying whatever you feel is a good investement without any actual idea of where the market should be heading. If you have 5 or 6 indicators telling you it's a really good time to buy, well, it should be... if it goes lower, then you lost 10% and wait to find another opportunity.
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Re: stock tok etc.

Post #1770 by Slick Nick » Fri Oct 12, 2018 12:55 am

Slick Nick wrote:
Dog wrote:Had a quick look at ICOs. Seems like the stupidest way to invest (unless you have money to launder).


I invested some dust in this one...

https://windingtree.com


Image

wish I invested more than some measly dust..

They just added KLM, SuissAir and Austrian as partners... probably money laundering and stuff.
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Re: stock tok etc.

Post #1771 by Dog » Fri Oct 12, 2018 10:57 am

Slick Nick wrote:
Dog wrote:Guys, you peeps are basically doing horoscopes.


I came to the conclusion that indicators are pretty much self fulfilling prophecy.. if everyone uses them, then they dictate the market. If every one sees that the RSI is way overbought, people start selling and the price falls, then when it's way oversold, people start buying... if you're cautious and patient, use stop losses, then you will make more better trades. This being said, long term investment is a different thing, but weekly and monthly charts are helpful to find a good entry point.


No doubt prices are about future expectations and psychology plays a large part into that. That said, it still doesn’t mean charts are effective. Lots of players out there, with the bulk being far more sophisticated institutionals. You’re right that the long term game is different. Long term, well diversified, geographically and by sector, on a market cap basis, you’re basically betting on capitalism surviving (which long term has to have earnings above inflation). Short term momentum trades, my take is that you’re unlikely to beat supercomputers transacting in miliseconds. Happy to be shown otherwise, as in studies showing a clustered outperformance from certain retail chart based traders over time (there is next to none for active fund managers and my understanding is that retail based investing returns even worse). There is a few « free lunches » in the public markets, but they are very costly (in terms of volume and time) to uncover and the market self corrects -opportunities quickly disapear as money pours in. In a world of massive multi-billion institutions with deep algorithms and powerful computers mining for arbitrage and other opportunities, I don’t think there are many free lunches left for retail investors to devine by looking at charts.

Could be wrong. Just sharing because to my understanding studies show this type of retail investing to not outperform a passive index strategy and I thought I’d share. Do with it as you will.
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Re: stock tok etc.

Post #1772 by Dog » Fri Oct 12, 2018 11:00 am

Slick Nick wrote:
Slick Nick wrote:
Dog wrote:Had a quick look at ICOs. Seems like the stupidest way to invest (unless you have money to launder).


I invested some dust in this one...

https://windingtree.com


Image

wish I invested more than some measly dust..

They just added KLM, SuissAir and Austrian as partners... probably money laundering and stuff.


The problem with ICOs is that you are not buying an ownership stake in the company. A company’s earnings and assets (and thus value) is held by its shareholders. Coin issuances are issuances of thin air (without legal ownership rights). You can make money in stupid bubbles, just have to ensure tou aren’t the greater fool left holding the bag. Not my type of investing.
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Re: stock tok etc.

Post #1773 by PredsFan77 » Fri Oct 12, 2018 1:00 pm

Dog wrote:
Slick Nick wrote:
Dog wrote:Guys, you peeps are basically doing horoscopes.


I came to the conclusion that indicators are pretty much self fulfilling prophecy.. if everyone uses them, then they dictate the market. If every one sees that the RSI is way overbought, people start selling and the price falls, then when it's way oversold, people start buying... if you're cautious and patient, use stop losses, then you will make more better trades. This being said, long term investment is a different thing, but weekly and monthly charts are helpful to find a good entry point.


No doubt prices are about future expectations and psychology plays a large part into that. That said, it still doesn’t mean charts are effective. Lots of players out there, with the bulk being far more sophisticated institutionals. You’re right that the long term game is different. Long term, well diversified, geographically and by sector, on a market cap basis, you’re basically betting on capitalism surviving (which long term has to have earnings above inflation). Short term momentum trades, my take is that you’re unlikely to beat supercomputers transacting in miliseconds. Happy to be shown otherwise, as in studies showing a clustered outperformance from certain retail chart based traders over time (there is next to none for active fund managers and my understanding is that retail based investing returns even worse). There is a few « free lunches » in the public markets, but they are very costly (in terms of volume and time) to uncover and the market self corrects -opportunities quickly disapear as money pours in. In a world of massive multi-billion institutions with deep algorithms and powerful computers mining for arbitrage and other opportunities, I don’t think there are many free lunches left for retail investors to devine by looking at charts.

Could be wrong. Just sharing because to my understanding studies show this type of retail investing to not outperform a passive index strategy and I thought I’d share. Do with it as you will.


THIS IS THE FUTURE, BUY BUY BUY BUY
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Re: stock tok etc.

Post #1774 by Ricard_Persson » Fri Oct 12, 2018 3:38 pm

Yes, I missed SHOP this time for sure. Just checked in this morning. Missing and then getting complacent is a bad combo. Would have liked to have got out before the 200. Now we'll see. I should have stuck with my gut, but did like that it bounced up from $172 three times.

Oh well. We'll see if it can level off here.
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Re: stock tok etc.

Post #1775 by mayoradamwest » Fri Oct 12, 2018 4:43 pm

I'm debating investing in a burrito, or some type of sushi delivered. My sandwich heavy portfolio has never let me down.
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Re: stock tok etc.

Post #1776 by Slick Nick » Fri Oct 12, 2018 9:57 pm

Dog wrote:
Slick Nick wrote:
Dog wrote:Guys, you peeps are basically doing horoscopes.


I came to the conclusion that indicators are pretty much self fulfilling prophecy.. if everyone uses them, then they dictate the market. If every one sees that the RSI is way overbought, people start selling and the price falls, then when it's way oversold, people start buying... if you're cautious and patient, use stop losses, then you will make more better trades. This being said, long term investment is a different thing, but weekly and monthly charts are helpful to find a good entry point.


No doubt prices are about future expectations and psychology plays a large part into that. That said, it still doesn’t mean charts are effective. Lots of players out there, with the bulk being far more sophisticated institutionals. You’re right that the long term game is different. Long term, well diversified, geographically and by sector, on a market cap basis, you’re basically betting on capitalism surviving (which long term has to have earnings above inflation). Short term momentum trades, my take is that you’re unlikely to beat supercomputers transacting in miliseconds. Happy to be shown otherwise, as in studies showing a clustered outperformance from certain retail chart based traders over time (there is next to none for active fund managers and my understanding is that retail based investing returns even worse). There is a few « free lunches » in the public markets, but they are very costly (in terms of volume and time) to uncover and the market self corrects -opportunities quickly disapear as money pours in. In a world of massive multi-billion institutions with deep algorithms and powerful computers mining for arbitrage and other opportunities, I don’t think there are many free lunches left for retail investors to devine by looking at charts.

Could be wrong. Just sharing because to my understanding studies show this type of retail investing to not outperform a passive index strategy and I thought I’d share. Do with it as you will.


I'm not day trading.. I've done it for a couple of months and it was one of the most depressing activities I've done in my life. It's almost the same as gambling. I prefer swing trading, hold a couple of days/weeks. Basically just find a nice entry point on a pullback, sell higher and rebuy on the next dip, basically accumulating... and charting is very helpful for this. The goal is not to beat anyone, but to make better trades. Like not buy Shopify when every indicator tells you not to. High frequency trading is really about skimming nanocents on each transaction, big institutional buyers buy on longer time frames and they use pretty much the same indicators that any joebloe can use at home. I would use passive strategy if I had a large sum of money to invest, for the amounts I've put in, I'm trying to make higher returns..
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Re: stock tok etc.

Post #1777 by Slick Nick » Fri Oct 12, 2018 10:04 pm

Dog wrote:
The problem with ICOs is that you are not buying an ownership stake in the company. A company’s earnings and assets (and thus value) is held by its shareholders. Coin issuances are issuances of thin air (without legal ownership rights). You can make money in stupid bubbles, just have to ensure tou aren’t the greater fool left holding the bag. Not my type of investing.


Sooner than later you will buy your stocks the same way I buy my coins.. it's inevitable. The stakes will be attached by smart contracts, it will just become much more easy to gain access to the markets. The problem is that the tech is really not ready yet.. Had great expectations for this year, but no significant progress has been made; still no scaling, still security issues, still unfriendly as fuck to use. I think we're still 5 to 10 years away from it being ubiquitous. And, yes, there's a very valid point that as of now I'm really just holding strings of letters and numbers, but if those coins are used by the companies involved in the ecosystem, then they have some value...
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Re: stock tok etc.

Post #1778 by Slick Nick » Tue Oct 16, 2018 11:07 pm

Was reading about Tom DeMark indicators.. and found a new tool of his, looks super helpful and much more intuitive than EMAs and RSIs.

The range expansion index (REI) is a technical indicator used in the technical analysis of financial markets. It is intended to chart the relative strength or weakness of a trading vehicle based on the comparison of the recent price changes and the overall price changes for the period.

The REI can be classified as a momentum oscillator, measuring the velocity and magnitude of directional price movements. The REI shows overbought/oversold price conditions by measuring the relation between the sum of "strong" price changes (such that form a trend) and all price changes for the period.

The REI is most typically used on an 8 day timeframe. It changes on a scale from −100 to +100, with the overbought and oversold levels marked at +60 and −60, respectively.

if the indicator value exceeds the +60 level and then falls below it, a signal to sell is generated. If the indicator value moves below the -60 level and then surges above it, a signal to buy is generated.


The red lines I drew indicate the moment the REI dipped under the the 60 level after surging above it. Indicating selling.
The green lines are the opposite, indicating buying.

Image

Crazy how astrology helps time the market. Wish I found about REI sooner.. always had trouble making sense of RSIs and MACDs... trying to spot divergences, this thing does the job for you.

Following religiously REI in that period: 135% gains
Passive: 16% gains
Gut feeling buys: -13% gains.
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Re: stock tok etc.

Post #1779 by Slick Nick » Wed Oct 17, 2018 12:30 am

Thomas DeMark is the founder and CEO of DeMark Analytics, LLC,[1] creator of the DeMark Indicators, and has been a special consultant to Steven A. Cohen of Point 72 Asset Management, formerly known as S.A.C. Capital Advisors,[2] for 20 years.[3][4][5] DeMark's indicators are used in the market timing and technical analysis of financial markets. Some of his indicators include the following: Sequential, Combo, Setup, Setup Trend, Countdown, Range Expansion Index, D-Wave, TD Lines, Differential and Camouflage.[3][4][5] DeMark’s recent stock market predictions include having forecast months in advance the October 4, 2011 US market bottom to within 1 point of the exact low[6][7] and the precise Shanghai Composite market low on December 4, 2012,[8] precise subsequent February 6, 2013 high,[9] then June low[10] and September 2013 high to the exact day.[11]

DeMark received his B.A. and M.B.A. in Wisconsin and attended law school there as well from 1965 through 1972.[3] From 1972 to 1978, DeMark was an officer of National Investment Services (NIS), a multibillion-dollar pension fund manager. From 1979 to 1982, he was president of Financial Markets Consulting, a market-timing consulting subsidiary of NIS. In 1982, DeMark founded DeMark Investment Advisory, an advisor to many of the largest and most successful hedge funds, fund managers, mutual funds, and investment counseling firms. His clients included George Soros, Goldman Sachs, Union Carbide, IBM, Minnesota Mining, Steinhardt Partners, Atlantic Richfield, First Investors, Hoisington Investment, among many others. In 1988, DeMark became executive vice president of Tudor (Paul Tudor Jones), a multibillion-dollar hedge fund. In 1990, DeMark established a partnership with Chicago Board of Trade Treasury Bond legend[12] Charlie DiFrancesca ("Charlie D"). In 1990, DeMark and multibillion-dollar fund manager Van Hoisington[13][14] formed Devan Futures. In 1994, DeMark served as special advisor to Leon Cooperman, a $5 billion hedge fund manager. At the same time, DeMark formed Market Studies, a provider of DeMark's suite of market-timing software to data vendors, such as Bloomberg and CQG.[5][15] Formerly, DeMark was Chairman of Logical Information Machines (LIM).
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Re: stock tok etc.

Post #1780 by Dog » Wed Oct 17, 2018 1:14 pm

Godspeed, Nicolai.
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Re: stock tok etc.

Post #1781 by Slick Nick » Thu Oct 18, 2018 1:18 am

Dog wrote:Godspeed, Nicolai.


It's fun dog... nerd fun.
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Re: stock tok etc.

Post #1782 by Ricard_Persson » Thu Oct 18, 2018 3:04 pm

My stockcharts don't have Range Expansion Index. :fingered:
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Re: stock tok etc.

Post #1783 by Slick Nick » Thu Oct 18, 2018 3:32 pm

Ricard_Persson wrote:My stockcharts don't have Range Expansion Index. :fingered:


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Re: stock tok etc.

Post #1784 by Slick Nick » Mon Oct 29, 2018 2:12 am

Tomorrow is going to be inerdasting..
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Re: stock tok etc.

Post #1785 by shredz » Mon Oct 29, 2018 10:34 am

Everyone's an expert on Red Hat.
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Re: stock tok etc.

Post #1786 by AD » Thu Nov 01, 2018 2:23 pm

So lets talk re-entry into the market broadly.

I've had about 40% of my portfolio (overall net worth as I don't own real estate at all anymore) just sitting on the sidelines for the past 6 months. Do I jump back in with it now? Is November going to be bad. My gut feeling is that we'll have a fake recovery over the next 60 days but a very rocky 2019.

The other 60% was doing marvelously well from January to September... but at this point is about back to January level. :why:
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Re: stock tok etc.

Post #1787 by PredsFan77 » Thu Nov 01, 2018 7:21 pm

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Re: stock tok etc.

Post #1788 by Slick Nick » Fri Nov 02, 2018 2:04 am

AD wrote:So lets talk re-entry into the market broadly.

I've had about 40% of my portfolio (overall net worth as I don't own real estate at all anymore) just sitting on the sidelines for the past 6 months. Do I jump back in with it now? Is November going to be bad. My gut feeling is that we'll have a fake recovery over the next 60 days but a very rocky 2019.

The other 60% was doing marvelously well from January to September... but at this point is about back to January level. :why:


It's extremely hard to say right now from any level of analysis... give it a week or two and you'll have a much better idea. The much deserved rebound is about to encounter resistance levels. I think next week will be positive albeit lower progression and then it might drop further... I personally would not invest money right now for the long term... swing a couple of trades maybe, but I don't think it's your thing.

I mean, look at this monthly chart.. technically still in an uptrend but looks a bit toppy to me.

Image
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Re: stock tok etc.

Post #1789 by Slick Nick » Fri Nov 02, 2018 2:13 am

Also, take like 5% of that 40% sidelined and put it in crypto. Next bull run will be surreal.
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Re: stock tok etc.

Post #1790 by Dog » Fri Nov 02, 2018 9:27 am

AD wrote:So lets talk re-entry into the market broadly.

I've had about 40% of my portfolio (overall net worth as I don't own real estate at all anymore) just sitting on the sidelines for the past 6 months. Do I jump back in with it now? Is November going to be bad. My gut feeling is that we'll have a fake recovery over the next 60 days but a very rocky 2019.

The other 60% was doing marvelously well from January to September... but at this point is about back to January level. :why:


Still overvalued. Don’t be in any rush. Economy is at full steam, inflation is going up and rates are going up. This means most likely ahead is increased inflation and rates will slow economy, cost of money will go up at same time as purchasing power gets eroded.

Very high level broadly speaking, you have two eras. Eras when rates trend down (high return) and eras where rates trend up (low returns). We’ve yingged for decades, we starting to yang now. Don’t mean it will be terrible, but slow crawl is best that can be expected long term. If you already have 60% of your net worth into equities, that may be enough....at least to not be in a hurry. I’m not.

Of course, the real question is in comparing expected shitty equity returns with expected shitty bond/fixed income returns. You “should” always have an equity premimum. With a long enough time horizon (decades), you should go for return. That said, US 10 year rolling PE ratios are still massively high (indicative of a low rate environment). As rates go up, I would expect a PE correction back to more historic levels. I’m in no hurry whatsoever. Bought back some emerging market indices as those are starting to get cheap, but not much and nothing else so far.

Of course #2, timing is a bit/lot of a fools game. Illussion of control.
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Re: stock tok etc.

Post #1791 by Ricard_Persson » Fri Nov 02, 2018 11:43 am

From that chart, I just don't see how it doesn't drop to 20000 or very close to that in the short to mid term range.

I'll eat my Peter Schaefer jersey if it doesn't.
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Re: stock tok etc.

Post #1792 by Ricard_Persson » Fri Nov 02, 2018 11:46 am

Big test for Shopify today if it can close above the 50 day moving average of 189.33 CDN. It closed over the 200DMA yesterday but showed some weakness when it drop at the close below the 50. Both moving averages are the closest to each other that they've been in a better part of a year.

It's sitting over the 50 now, but needs to close there.
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Re: stock tok etc.

Post #1793 by shredz » Fri Nov 02, 2018 12:32 pm

Hello, Mr. Ricard Persson, Shedz here from BroadsTradeDirect. How are you today?

Excellent.

I just need your social.
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Re: stock tok etc.

Post #1794 by AD » Fri Nov 02, 2018 1:07 pm

So buy an income property. Good. Noted.

Thanks.
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Re: stock tok etc.

Post #1795 by Dog » Fri Nov 02, 2018 1:16 pm

AD wrote:So buy an income property. Good. Noted.

Thanks.


No, same. Rates rising, purchsing power eroding, prices stagnating or trending lower.

Moral of the story: expect and plan for low returns long term. When the next cycle starts in like 30 years, well your kids can invest and become rich(er).
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Re: stock tok etc.

Post #1796 by AD » Fri Nov 02, 2018 1:18 pm

Lock in a rate now. Hope for inflation.

Noted. Thanks.
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Re: stock tok etc.

Post #1797 by Dog » Fri Nov 02, 2018 1:45 pm

AD wrote:Lock in a rate now. Hope for inflation.

Noted. Thanks.


Borrow money now to lend later ala Trump!
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Re: stock tok etc.

Post #1798 by Craig » Fri Nov 02, 2018 3:47 pm

Rates are low but going up. Lock in a rate now and leverage your investments to make up for lower returns!
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Re: stock tok etc.

Post #1799 by Dog » Fri Nov 02, 2018 4:04 pm

Craig wrote:Rates are low but going up. Lock in a rate now and leverage your investments to make up for lower returns!


Borrow now and invest in triple leveraged funds!
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Re: stock tok etc.

Post #1800 by Craig » Fri Nov 02, 2018 4:23 pm

Leverage your leverage, I like it!

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