stock tok etc.

..et d'autres discussions ennuyeuses
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Re: stock tok etc.

Post #1351 by pk shredz » Thu Nov 15, 2018 6:52 am

Knowing the difference between contango and backwardation will help you avoid losses in the futures market.



Contango vs. Normal Backwardation

The shape of the futures curve is important to commodity hedgers and speculators. Both care about whether commodity futures markets are contango markets or normal backwardation markets. In 1993, the German company Metallgesellschaft famously lost more than $1 billion dollars, mostly because management deployed a hedging system that profited from normal backwardation markets but did not anticipate a shift to contango markets. In this article, we'll lay out the difference between contango and backwardation and show you how to avoid serious losses.

Normal and Inverted Futures Curve
A contango market is often confused with a normal futures curve; and a normal backwardation market is confused with an inverted futures curve.

Let's start by getting an understanding of the difference between the two. Start with a static picture of a futures curve. A static picture of the futures curve plots futures prices (y-axis) against contract maturities (i.e., terms to maturity). This is analogous to a plot of the term structure of interest rates: We are looking at prices for many different maturities as they extend into the horizon. The chart below plots a normal market in green and an inverted market in red:

Image

In the chart above, the spot price is $60. In the normal (green line) market, a one-year futures contract is priced at $90. Therefore, if you take a long position in the one-year contract, you promise to purchase one contract for $90 in one year. Your long position is not an option in the future, it is an obligation in the future.

Supply/Demand Determines the Shape
The red line in Figure 1, on the other hand, depicts an inverted market. In an inverted market, the futures price for faraway deliveries is less than the spot price. Why would a futures curve invert? Because, in the case of a physical asset, there may be some benefit to owning the asset (called the convenience yield) or, in the case of a financial asset, ownership may confer a dividend to the owner.

A few fundamental factors (i.e., the cost to carry a physical asset or finance a financial asset) inform supply/demand for the commodity, which ultimately determines the shape of the futures curve. If we really want to be precise, we could say fundamentals like storage cost, financing cost (cost to carry) and convenience yield inform supply and demand. Supply meets demand where market participants are willing to agree about the expected future spot price. Their consensus view sets the futures price. And that's why a futures price changes over time: Market participants update their views about the future expected spot price.

The traditional crude oil futures curve, for example, is typically humped: it is normal in the short-term but gives way to an inverted market for longer maturities.

Contango and Normal Backwardation

A futures market is normal if futures prices are higher at longer maturities and inverted if futures prices are lower at distant maturities.

This is where the concept gets a little tricky, so we'll start with two key ideas:

As we approach contract maturity (we might be long or short the futures contract, it doesn't matter), the futures price must converge toward the spot price. The difference is called the basis. That's because, on the maturity date, the futures price must equal the spot price. If they don't converge on maturity, anybody could make free money with an easy arbitrage.
The most rational futures price is the expected future spot price.

For example, if you and your counterparty both could foresee the spot price in crude oil would be $80 in one year, you would rationally settle on an $80 futures price. Anything above or below would represent a loss for one of you. Now we can define contango and normal backwardation. The difference is normal/inverted refers to the shape of the curve as we take a snapshot in time. Contango and normal backwardation refer to the pattern of prices over time, specifically if the price of the contract is rising or falling.

Suppose we entered into a December 2012 futures contract today for $100. Now go forward one month. The same December 2012 futures contract could still be $100, but it also might have increased to $110 (this implies normal backwardation) or it might have decreased to $90 (implies contango). The definitions are as follows:

Contango is when the futures price is above the expected future spot price. Because the futures price must converge on the expected future spot price, contango implies futures prices are falling over time as new information brings them into line with the expected future spot price.

Normal backwardation is when the futures price is below the expected future spot price. This is desirable for speculators who are net long in their positions: they want the futures price to increase.

So, normal backwardation is when the futures prices are increasing.

Consider a futures contract we purchase today, due in exactly one year. Assume the expected future spot price is $60 (the blue flat line in Figure 2 below). If today's cost for the one-year futures contract is $90 (the red line), the futures price is above the expected future spot price. This is a contango scenario. Unless the expected future spot price changes, the contract price must drop. If we go forward in time one month, we will be referring to an 11-month contract; in six months, it will be a six-month contract.

Image


https://www.investopedia.com/articles/0 ... dation.asp
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Re: stock tok etc.

Post #1352 by Craig » Thu Nov 15, 2018 8:12 am

It's only promising if you want to decentralize the registry of shares, land, etc for some reason.
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Re: stock tok etc.

Post #1353 by Craig » Thu Nov 15, 2018 9:56 am

How are they more efficient?
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Re: stock tok etc.

Post #1354 by pk shredz » Thu Nov 15, 2018 9:57 am

Tell me more about this 'Bitcoin' and how I'll be a billionaire in no time.
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Re: stock tok etc.

Post #1355 by Slick Nick » Thu Nov 15, 2018 10:55 am

Dog wrote:
Craig wrote:It's only promising if you want to decentralize the registry of shares, land, etc for some reason.


What I think you’ll get is registries / stock markets adopting their own blockchains. It makes sense for stock markets -much more efficient. What I don’t see, is these orgs adopting existing coins and saying “these are now Amazon shares”. They’ll source tech and knowhow and “grow” their own chains. So, only value I see is in any company owning IP on processes and knowhow that they can can sell to orgs. Sales and Service contracts. Basically, a nothing burger to invest in at present-especially not in coins that aren’t legally linked to anything.


Growing your own chains is like being in the 90s and saying "we'll just copy the tech and build our own private internets" ... those exist, they are called intranets. They can have uses, but they're really nothing special and rely on a wider public network. Private chains will have uses, but a private chain that is not part of global blockchain network is really just an immutable automated data registry. Now, a bunch of of these data registries communicating between themselves and accessible by anyone anywhere to build any application on top of, this is truly revolutionary. In the future, there will be one or a couple of main protocols.. now whether it will be bitcoin, ethereum or cardano based, or something completely new, is up to speculation.. but they are the front runners in blockchain tech. You hear Ethereum and think, magical internets money for money laundering, but you don't realize that thousands of the most talented developers in the world are working on the project. Public blockchains are light years ahead of private blockchain initatives (in terms of tech but also in terms of infrastructure and adoption), so there's a really good reason to believe that one of them will become the main network on top of which everything else runs. The best people in that sphere don't run to Microsoft to work on their private blockchain, the best people are either working on exisiting public chains or launching their own applications on top of those existing chains. When you think of the 5000 cryptos, you have to understand that apart from the 90% of scams, there are 10% of very serious side projects working to complement the ecosystem. Those are the projects I try to invest in.

Now I'm not saying buy eth or btc and you will be tremendously wealthy... but I don't think you guys understand where this is all going.
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Re: stock tok etc.

Post #1356 by Slick Nick » Thu Nov 15, 2018 11:00 am

Dog wrote:
Craig wrote:How are they more efficient?


Simplifies clearing/settlement process. There is a whole army of back office clearance work being done now.


The ability for a third world kid to be able to invest any amount in anything (equity, bonds, commodities, real estate) is kinda revolutionary. Sadly, the dream of decentralization will probably bring even more centralization in the hands of the largest corps.
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Re: stock tok etc.

Post #1357 by Craig » Thu Nov 15, 2018 11:12 am

Dog wrote:
Craig wrote:How are they more efficient?


Simplifies clearing/settlement process. There is a whole army of back office clearance work being done now.


I don't believe that this is true, and I spent 10 years working in tech in the back office of a bank.
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Re: stock tok etc.

Post #1358 by Slick Nick » Thu Nov 15, 2018 11:17 am

Craig wrote:
Dog wrote:
Craig wrote:How are they more efficient?


Simplifies clearing/settlement process. There is a whole army of back office clearance work being done now.


I don't believe that this is true, and I spent 10 years working in tech in the back office of a bank.


screencapd for future shaming.
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Re: stock tok etc.

Post #1359 by Craig » Thu Nov 15, 2018 11:18 am

Good luck with that.
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Re: stock tok etc.

Post #1360 by Slick Nick » Thu Nov 15, 2018 2:22 pm

Dog wrote:
Slick Nick wrote:
Dog wrote:
What I think you’ll get is registries / stock markets adopting their own blockchains. It makes sense for stock markets -much more efficient. What I don’t see, is these orgs adopting existing coins and saying “these are now Amazon shares”. They’ll source tech and knowhow and “grow” their own chains. So, only value I see is in any company owning IP on processes and knowhow that they can can sell to orgs. Sales and Service contracts. Basically, a nothing burger to invest in at present-especially not in coins that aren’t legally linked to anything.


Growing your own chains is like being in the 90s and saying "we'll just copy the tech and build our own private internets" ... those exist, they are called intranets. They can have uses, but they're really nothing special and rely on a wider public network. Private chains will have uses, but a private chain that is not part of global blockchain network is really just an immutable automated data registry. Now, a bunch of of these data registries communicating between them and accessible by anyone anywhere to build applications on top of, this is truly revolutionary. In the future, there will be one or a couple of main protocols.. now whether it will be bitcoin, ethereum or cardano based, or something completely new, is up to speculation.. but they are the front runners in blockchain tech. You hear Ethereum and think, magical internets money for money laundering, but you don't realize that thousands of the most talented developers in the world are working on the project. Public blockchains are light years ahead of private blockchain initatives (in terms of tech but also in terms of infrastructure and adoption), so there's a really good reason to believe that one of them will become the main network on which everything runs.

Now I'm not saying buy eth or btc and you will be tremendously wealthy... but I don't think you guys understand where this is all going.


How do you propose publicly traded stocks get “tokenized”?


To draw a parallel with present day equity share ownership – say, you purchased shares of a listed company during its initial public offering (IPO), or bought them on the stock exchange. These shares are then credited to your demat account. Tokenized equity shares work the same way, except that those shares are in the digital form of cryptocoins or tokens, and instead of going into your demat account, they are credited to your blockchain-hosted account.


Read more: Tokenized Equity Definition | Investopedia https://www.investopedia.com/terms/t/to ... z5Wx16t7jT

I think it will start with STOs this year, a lot of companies will try to raise capital through this regulation compliant fund raising vehicle. The ecosystem will mature and most traditional stocks will eventually move to the smartcontract world where the protocol is the settlement and distributes dividends instantly and automatically.

Issue a corresponding token for each of the company's share -> propose to investors to swap their paper stocks for blackchain version -> huge bubble/bullrun occurs in the new space-> everyone wants to ride the bubble -> companies save operational money and have access to a larger pool of investors.. it's the effective death of paper stocks. There are still a ton of things to be figured out like the relation between the paper stock and the corresponding token, investor rights and protection, etc. Like I said it's going to take a couple of years, but it's clearly the way it will go. Meanwhile, there will be a lot of speculative money to be made on STO's next year.. allowing a small percentage of your portoflio to it might be an interesting thing.

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Re: stock tok etc.

Post #1361 by Craig » Thu Nov 15, 2018 2:42 pm

Paper stocks haven't been a thing for like 20 years.
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Re: stock tok etc.

Post #1362 by Slick Nick » Thu Nov 15, 2018 3:00 pm

Craig wrote:Paper stocks haven't been a thing for like 20 years.


Exactly, the current system is 20 years outdated and will be replaced by blockchain based tech...
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Re: stock tok etc.

Post #1363 by Craig » Thu Nov 15, 2018 3:05 pm

Wha? How does that follow?
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Re: stock tok etc.

Post #1364 by Slick Nick » Thu Nov 15, 2018 10:13 pm

Dog wrote:Explain to me in simple words: how do you expect a share of Amazon to become “tokanized” by being replaced by an existing issued token and why would the value of those tokens be anything else than the value of an amazon share?


The technical stuff will be solved, but as I said there the process had just begun, going to take years.

Increased liquidity, larger accessibility, possibility to fraction shares.. African peasant can't afford 1400$ for one amazon share and even if he could he could hardly gain access to the markets... but he can easily buy 10$ a month worth of it once it's tokenized. You don't think that the soon to be 10billion peeps gaining full access to all world markets at a fraction of the current transaction fees is a negligible thing for financial markets?

The idea is so terrible that a bunch of national exchanges and Nasdaq are all developing their own platforms for security tokens trading.

https://bravenewcoin.com/insights/nasda ... s-platform
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Re: stock tok etc.

Post #1365 by AD » Thu Nov 15, 2018 10:50 pm

Nasdaq and TMX and pretty much every exchange in the world is already looking at and trying to be the regulatory handler of a blockchain exchange. They just need the jurisdictions to allow them to let go of the clearing houses.
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Re: stock tok etc.

Post #1366 by AD » Thu Nov 15, 2018 10:50 pm

Oh sorry Nick. I hadn't read your post

Well. Carry on.
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Re: stock tok etc.

Post #1367 by Slick Nick » Thu Nov 15, 2018 10:51 pm

Polymath is one of the leading security tokens platform, it's based in Toronto. They raised $60M in their ICO...

This is how easy it is to create a security token on that platform.



bam! Investors are ready to send you money (crypto for now) and national crypto sooner than later, and you send them back tokens (shares) in your company, which are traded on largely capitalized markets.

I mean do you understand how profoundly disruptive it will be... when voting rights, dividends, eventually your tax info, will be integrated inside this protocol. If you don't see the potential of this thing.. you are really riding donkeys watching the hyperloop being built.
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Re: stock tok etc.

Post #1368 by Slick Nick » Thu Nov 15, 2018 11:13 pm

There's also a good possibility that many of last year's ICOs, the serious ones like the one I invested in, not the 1000s of scammy pump and dump ones, will want to switch their status from "utility token" to "security token" ... and that's the magic of the smartcontracts.

Send 10 XYZ ICO tokens to 0x address.
Burn ICO tokens and automatically send XYZ security token to the 0x address of origin.
No middle man. No paperwork. Not hackable.
Everything is forever registered in the ethereum blockchain.
You now own 10 shares in XYZ co trading on the nasdaq security token exchange.
and all it took is a couple of lines of smartcontract code and a couple of seconds of transaction time.
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Re: stock tok etc.

Post #1369 by Slick Nick » Fri Nov 16, 2018 1:49 am

I'm not telling any of you to remortgage your house and go all in in some shady crypto. My only advice is, open an account on a national crypto exchange, open an account on an international altcoin exchange (Bittrex, Binance, Coinbase)... buy a couple of 100$ worth of it and fuck around with it. Understand the tech and the ecosystem. Just in case it actually really booms.. y'all quite wealthy and spending 1000$ on ties and gloves... what's the big risk of buying 500$ worth of crypto... and by buying, I really mean having 500$ worth of american dollars on an exchange. Bittrex, the largest american exchange, has a USD option.. means you buy 500$ of btc/eth/whateves on a Canadian exchange, send it to your bittrex account then sell your btc for USD, and stay in USD until opportunities arise. I've been in fiat for a month, waiting for the market to solve itself. Or you just buy it on coinbase using your credit card and send it to an exchange.

Obviously you will have fees to pay to transfer your money on an exchange, then transaction fees to send the crypto to an altcoin exchange, then fees to convert to fiat.. but it's not that much. The important part is that you will have figured out how it works and will be registered for further use if you find it's a good idea going forward in this world.

That being said, if you don't know anything about any of the crypto projects, you're not very advanced... it's very time consuming and there's a pretty steep learning curve.

Just throwing the idea around if anyone is interested. I can guide you through the process, but I won't guide you through trading...
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Re: stock tok etc.

Post #1370 by Slick Nick » Fri Nov 16, 2018 2:41 am

Dog wrote:
Slick Nick wrote:The technical stuff will be solved,


It’s not “technical stuff”, it’s fundamental. I’m on board with blockchain technology’s potential for title chains...what I’m not on board with is going from that to “this token bought today will be worth so much more”. There is no link between today’s token and an Amazon share. In the future, the share may be offered through the vehicle of a token but that won’t affect the value of the share.

Why would anybody in their right mind pay more for a share of Amazon because it is in token form rather than electronic form? It makes absolutely no sense.


This is what I meant by:

There are still a ton of things to be figured out like the relation between the paper stock and the corresponding token


That Craig smartassed (dumbassed really) like I believe that stocks are still traded on SPX floors through gangsigns.

I'm not entirely sure of how it will play out. But my own personal theory is that once shares are tokenized, they will enjoy massive gains vs those that are not, by virtue of being exposed to the larger mass and to the thousands of crypto millionaires who can't cash out because of illiquidity. Exemple: 2 companies of streaming: Netflix goes tokenized while Buttflix doesn't. Netflix gets exposed to this new booming market and price soars while Buttflix's price plummets since it's stuck on a local legacy exchange. There's a game theory issue involved, you really want your share to be accessible by the largest investor group. Meanwhile, the tricky thing is that traditional stock owners also enjoy those gains because both equities are linked. This being said, there will be a major pressure on companies to tokenize. How it will play out, I don't know... but let's say that your argument sounds a lot like: why do we need cellphones because we have telegraphs already.

In the end, all of the benefits of blockchain (and there are so many) vs legacy systems will definitely push the balance towards the blockchain... I mean it will become 100x more efficient for the issuers while exposing them to all of humanity and 100x simpler for investors. Necessarily it will go that way. It's not a 6 month thing... legacy systems are here for a whiiile, no one is going to put the world's wealth on an unproved system. The big legacy systems with humongous capital need to figure out how to take the largest bite at this thing. They are doing it right now.. all of them are deeply invested in the blockchain ecosystem.

But as I said, this year we will have the first STOs, maybe the first Central Banked cryptocurrencies, maybe bonds, loans, name it.... and a gazillion scams and pump and dumps. But this market will most likely explode even harder than the crypto market. A lot of money will be made and lost. If you play it smartly...
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Re: stock tok etc.

Post #1371 by Slick Nick » Fri Nov 16, 2018 2:46 am

Dog wrote:And Nick, companies can make share splits at will. Having 50 shares at $100 or 100 shares at $50 or 1,000 ahares at $5 is purely marketing. And further, selling “fractions of shares” isn’t something awaiting for a tech fix (shares are already transacted in fully electronic format and super easy to divide as you will)....it’s a corporate law matter.

Blockchain simply may make backoffice custodianship and clearing more efficient (kill CDS) making transaction costs a little cheaper. But nobody will pay double for an Amazon share in order to save $3 per trade in fees.

Think about it. A share is a “unit of property of a company”. Why would anybody in their right mind pay more per unit of property because it is in “token” rather than “electronic” form? It makes no sense. Tech gets adopted when it makes things cheaper and more convenient, not when it makes the same thing more expensive.


I could multifax my paper to any country in the world!!!

Why can't you just accept that a new tech is so much more efficient and will replace the last one? It is. Waiting for The Economist and the Wallstreet Journal to tell you? Can't figure out things on your own?

Besides, people are not going to pay more for the token than the share, they will be pegged to eachother. But the companies that won't tokenize their shares, don't give the option to buy either, will suffer from a loss of exposure to the new global markets... and thus they all will tokenize their shares. Both systems will coexist, like the e-mail and postal do... but one will cannibalize the other, because it's so much more efficient. In the end, the legacy shareholders will push the company to tokenize their stock...they have nothing to gain by remaining in the legacy system and everything to gain by being part of that new one.

Take this as exemple:

You need a shit ton of employees to make issue shares, check over dividends, over settlements, etc. It all takes paperwork, 3 days waitings, etc.

You need a line of standardized code of smartcontracts that do all of this instantly and freely and incorruptibly. And not only they do that, but they also send your tax info to your local government, freely, instantly... etc.

Blockchain is the automation of white collar jobs. Accounting, tax, layering... most of y'all (lower echelons) are done for. We got robots for manual tasks and blockchain/smartcontracts for you educated cunts. Wake up!
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Re: stock tok etc.

Post #1372 by Slick Nick » Fri Nov 16, 2018 3:37 am

I've said it last year ... every friggen thing that can be databsed, will be on the blockchain.

Imagine this scenario:

as of now:

You go to the doctor and he issues you some spermicide.

-Doctor has to print a paper-
-Doctor has to put it in your medical record
-An e-mail is sent to the pharmacist
-You have to keep the receipt and put it in your taxes
-you have to pay for it

Now this:

You go to the doctor and he issues you some spermicide.

-A smartcontract executes simultaneously everything above because every of the above is on a chain and all of them speak to each other.
- your medical record is updated, the pharmacy has received the order, your insurance company has been notified, your tax exemptions have been filled, an amount of money has been deduced from your bank account. You walk in and collect your spermicide.

Which one has more future?

As of now, we have 70 different databases hardly communicating with each other. All are centralized, all have security issues, etc. The promise of the blockchain is exactly what I described above. And it will happen. You still see cryptos as drug pedo money while in fact they are all startups working on this.. you have medical coins that want to put your medical record on the ecosystem, you have identity coins, you have tax coins, you have parking coins, insurance, electricity usage, games, tickets, you have think of anything coins.. all of them are working out systems to make everything automated on a central blockchain protocol. It's really just a matter of time before all of it all pans out.
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Re: stock tok etc.

Post #1373 by Slick Nick » Fri Nov 16, 2018 5:42 am

Nick Szabo is a 550iq autist long considered as the creator of bitcoin.. he denies it, but his works are the basis on which bitcoin was created. I think this piece of autism fully projects you in what/why/how the blockchain will work.

https://nakamotoinstitute.org/the-god-protocols/
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Re: stock tok etc.

Post #1374 by PredsFan77 » Fri Nov 16, 2018 6:26 am

$FRMO
CDX.NA.IG.9









[LEFT]Image[/LEFT]
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Re: stock tok etc.

Post #1375 by pk shredz » Fri Nov 16, 2018 9:07 am

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Re: stock tok etc.

Post #1376 by AD » Fri Nov 16, 2018 1:55 pm

You're talking about different things.

It does make sense in the theoretical short term when shady Russian arms dealers will finally be able to liquidate their bitcoin into a "token" of a company with theoretical more... uhm… substantive value, than just bitcoin.

That said Nick, regulators allow stocks to be traded on these transparent markets for the exact reason that they can't and shouldn't be traded on a parallel market where the origin of the money is unknown.

Its not a technology problem Nick, its a legal/fairness problem. Stocks are a legal fiction, not a technical thing. The legal fiction allows the sort of transaction Dog is talking about and it fundamentally opposes the sort of transaction you're talking about. In an irreconcilable way,

When the blockchain world finally gets to a stage where it will be as transparent and equitable as the current model, there will no longer be any value advantage of trading in one form vs the other, THEN we can move to your model. But by then, there will not be a price difference. In fact there can't be a price difference. If there was a price difference, there would have to be a full stop on trading.
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Re: stock tok etc.

Post #1377 by Slick Nick » Fri Nov 16, 2018 2:43 pm

Dog wrote:Nicolas, it’s so simple.

Option 1: buy 1/500,000,000,000,000th of Amazon as an electronic share with two clicks on the internets. Pay, say, $100 (whatever it’s trading price) + $10 commission and a 2 cent buy-sell spread to the market maker.

Option 2: do the exact same thing, but pay more because you bought it in token form.

It doesn’t make sense!

The vehicle may make sense, but you are conflating “independant token value” into the share price. Why would anybody pay for that? Shares trade seemlessly in electronic format right now. The backside clerance is folded into a small extra charge. It neither affects liquidity or speed of transaction.

You think somebody will pay you to buy your coin to fold that into the value of an Amazon share? That makes no sense. An investor in Amazon wants an investment in Amazon -he wants to pay for Amazon. He doesn’t want a separate investment folded in to that investment. It makes no sense. One is a “ressource scarcity” play (the token) and the other an equity play on a company. Whybin the world would anybody want to bundle the two? To give token holders money?

The ONLY shares get tokanized is if it makes share transaction costs cheaper -get you closer to just paying for the share. Nobody is going to pay token holders to get a vehicle through which to deliver shares at exorbitant cost. You’re going in the wrong direction, dude.

This happens often with new tech investment. People (especially laymens, but also pros) get all scared of missing out and buy nonesensical things.

Blockchain tech makes sense for title chains. Trying to cash in by buying token today think that value will magically get folded in with share prices or house prices is ridiculous. You say “that will be addressed in the future” and brush it off. That’s actually the key. It doesn’t make sense. At all.


Have you read my post? No one is going to pay more for the token vs the share... it's a long process of setting up a new market, maturing it, and then finally migrating the current assets on the new platform. Anyway, time will tell.
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Re: stock tok etc.

Post #1378 by Slick Nick » Fri Nov 16, 2018 2:45 pm

Dog wrote:You’re talking about letting people pay for stocks with bitcoins and whatnot, banes?

Not of course what we were talking about (tokanizing shares).

On accepting bitcoins and whatnot as payment, TSX will just do whatever nyse/nasdaq/lse does. I very much doubt any (non Trump) regulators allow public stock markets to be a platform to liquidate laundered money.


99% of the laundered money is done in the traditionnal banking system.. give me a break. Offshore bank accounts don't run on the blockchain.. yet. Tell me again how regulators don't let offshore bank accounts pour their capital in the markets.
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Re: stock tok etc.

Post #1379 by AD » Fri Nov 16, 2018 2:46 pm

Dog wrote:You’re talking about letting people pay for stocks with bitcoins and whatnot, banes?.


No.
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Re: stock tok etc.

Post #1380 by Slick Nick » Fri Nov 16, 2018 2:48 pm

AD wrote:You're talking about different things.

It does make sense in the theoretical short term when shady Russian arms dealers will finally be able to liquidate their bitcoin into a "token" of a company with theoretical more... uhm… substantive value, than just bitcoin.

That said Nick, regulators allow stocks to be traded on these transparent markets for the exact reason that they can't and shouldn't be traded on a parallel market where the origin of the money is unknown.

Its not a technology problem Nick, its a legal/fairness problem. Stocks are a legal fiction, not a technical thing. The legal fiction allows the sort of transaction Dog is talking about and it fundamentally opposes the sort of transaction you're talking about. In an irreconcilable way,

When the blockchain world finally gets to a stage where it will be as transparent and equitable as the current model, there will no longer be any value advantage of trading in one form vs the other, THEN we can move to your model. But by then, there will not be a price difference. In fact there can't be a price difference. If there was a price difference, there would have to be a full stop on trading.


By the time the ecosystem is ready, thousands of legit business will have emerged on that new market.. when nation states will issue their own digital currencies, regular Joe will invest his sound money in those legit business. Bitcoin money will be a negligible portion of it. Regulations will evolve. I believe it's a very plausible scenario.
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Re: stock tok etc.

Post #1381 by AD » Fri Nov 16, 2018 2:49 pm

I'm responding to one of Nick's rationales for why this is a better system for stock exchanging.
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Re: stock tok etc.

Post #1382 by AD » Fri Nov 16, 2018 2:51 pm

Slick Nick wrote:
AD wrote:You're talking about different things.

It does make sense in the theoretical short term when shady Russian arms dealers will finally be able to liquidate their bitcoin into a "token" of a company with theoretical more... uhm… substantive value, than just bitcoin.

That said Nick, regulators allow stocks to be traded on these transparent markets for the exact reason that they can't and shouldn't be traded on a parallel market where the origin of the money is unknown.

Its not a technology problem Nick, its a legal/fairness problem. Stocks are a legal fiction, not a technical thing. The legal fiction allows the sort of transaction Dog is talking about and it fundamentally opposes the sort of transaction you're talking about. In an irreconcilable way,

When the blockchain world finally gets to a stage where it will be as transparent and equitable as the current model, there will no longer be any value advantage of trading in one form vs the other, THEN we can move to your model. But by then, there will not be a price difference. In fact there can't be a price difference. If there was a price difference, there would have to be a full stop on trading.


By the time the ecosystem is ready, thousands of legit business will have emerged on that new market.. when nation states will issue their own digital currencies, regular Joe will invest his sound money in those legit business. Bitcoin money will be a negligible portion of it. Regulations will evolve. I believe it's a very plausible scenario.


Then what are you saying?

I mean we all Agree that the technology for exchanges will evolve. It has often times in the last 150 years.
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Re: stock tok etc.

Post #1383 by Slick Nick » Fri Nov 16, 2018 2:55 pm

I'm saying:

1)the future of markets will be on the blockchain.
2)loads of speculative money to be made in the early stages.
3)maybe loads of sound investment money to be made investing early for the long term in this new tech.
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Re: stock tok etc.

Post #1384 by Slick Nick » Fri Nov 16, 2018 2:59 pm

Like this, I think it's a profoundly stupid application of tokenization:



Buy 1/7439th of a building... you don't own anything, the value of your token is entirely speculative and prone to pump and dump schemes. But there are many smart applications for tokenization. Stocks are by nature speculative tools, putting them on a more efficient system that allows anyone with a cellphone to trade it, will be the future.
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Re: stock tok etc.

Post #1385 by AD » Fri Nov 16, 2018 2:59 pm

1) definitely
2) absolutely not. The very nature of this system contradicts the ability to buy specific assets in a form that somehow is not on as equal a playing field as possible
3) maybe. But that new tech has been being developed for years by the existing players themselves.
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Re: stock tok etc.

Post #1386 by Slick Nick » Fri Nov 16, 2018 3:12 pm

AD wrote:2) absolutely not. The very nature of this system contradicts the ability to buy specific assets in a form that somehow is not on as equal a playing field as possible


$7 Billion has been raised in ICOs last year. ICO's were shady enterprises, hard to invest in for the regular Joe, illegal in many countries including the US, non compliant with local regulations, super unfriendly for the tech noob, with shady Chinese exchanges to trade your shitcoins on... And billions have been made.

in 2019, STOs will launch legal, complaint, user friendly way of buying shares of legit companies with legit products, and those will be traded on platforms created by Nasdaq and such. The amount of money that will pour in STOs might just be 10 times what it was for ICOs. There will be mucho mucho dineros to be made.. if you have some appetite for big risk big gains.

The major boom, however, will happen later when national currencies will be released. As of now, you still have to go through BTC or ETH to buy those shares.. This why I expect all the crypto money to migrate to these new legit tokens, unregulated crypto markets will die aside from maybe Bitcoin as a store of value of some sort and privacy coins (illegal activity coins). Major exchanges will make new money, brokers and banks will serve as insurance compliant token vaults. It's all coming.
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Re: stock tok etc.

Post #1387 by Slick Nick » Fri Nov 16, 2018 3:48 pm

In other news, just found out that Air Canada is partnering with Winding Tree (the ICO I invested in.. soon to be turned STO)

https://aircanada.mediaroom.com/2018-10 ... n-Platform

Partners:

So far they have:

- Luftansa
- Air France
- KLM
- SwissAir
- Austrian
- Air Canada
- Brussels Airlines
- Eurowings
- Air New Zeland
- a couple of hotels and tech firms

Image

I might buy some more!
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Re: stock tok etc.

Post #1388 by Slick Nick » Fri Nov 16, 2018 4:29 pm

Dog wrote:
Slick Nick wrote:
AD wrote:You're talking about different things.

It does make sense in the theoretical short term when shady Russian arms dealers will finally be able to liquidate their bitcoin into a "token" of a company with theoretical more... uhm… substantive value, than just bitcoin.

That said Nick, regulators allow stocks to be traded on these transparent markets for the exact reason that they can't and shouldn't be traded on a parallel market where the origin of the money is unknown.

Its not a technology problem Nick, its a legal/fairness problem. Stocks are a legal fiction, not a technical thing. The legal fiction allows the sort of transaction Dog is talking about and it fundamentally opposes the sort of transaction you're talking about. In an irreconcilable way,

When the blockchain world finally gets to a stage where it will be as transparent and equitable as the current model, there will no longer be any value advantage of trading in one form vs the other, THEN we can move to your model. But by then, there will not be a price difference. In fact there can't be a price difference. If there was a price difference, there would have to be a full stop on trading.


By the time the ecosystem is ready, thousands of legit business will have emerged on that new market.. when nation states will issue their own digital currencies, regular Joe will invest his sound money in those legit business. Bitcoin money will be a negligible portion of it. Regulations will evolve. I believe it's a very plausible scenario.


Token aren’t shares. Shares trade very efficiently in digital form. They’ll only get “tokanized” if it lowers costs compared to electronic share transfers, not increases it. None of this makes sense.

:why:


Be gentle with that donkey, it's kinda old and slow...
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Re: stock tok etc.

Post #1389 by Slick Nick » Fri Nov 16, 2018 4:35 pm

Why can't you understand that the Token is not the share.. the share is assigned to the token, the token is only a vehicle (a data point in a ledger). You used to buy paper stocks, then binary strings of 0s and 1s, tomorrow randomly generated strings of letters and numbers. You own the share because it's assigned to your identity in the cloud. Why can't you see that you can do exactly the same with a token..

You will not buy a token of Amazon.. you will buy a share of amazon that is on the blockchain (it is tokenized).. just like you can tokenize anything you want.. it's just a means of automating transactions and contracts more efficiently, safely and cheaply.
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Re: stock tok etc.

Post #1390 by Craig » Fri Nov 16, 2018 4:56 pm

Slick Nick wrote:Why can't you understand that the Token is not the share.. the share is assigned to the token, the token is only a vehicle (a data point in a ledger). You used to buy paper stocks, then binary strings of 0s and 1s, tomorrow randomly generated strings of letters and numbers. You own the share because it's assigned to your identity in the cloud. Why can't you see that you can do exactly the same with a token..

You will not buy a token of Amazon.. you will buy a share of amazon that is on the blockchain (it is tokenized).. just like you can tokenize anything you want.. it's just a means of automating transactions and contracts more efficiently, safely and cheaply.


Blockchain is, by definition, less efficient (in terms of speed) than traditional databases. By its very nature it has to be slower and less private than other solutions.

Also...1s and 0s, then characters? What the fuck? Why would you say something transparently nonsensical like that?
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Re: stock tok etc.

Post #1391 by Slick Nick » Fri Nov 16, 2018 5:01 pm

Craig wrote:
Slick Nick wrote:Why can't you understand that the Token is not the share.. the share is assigned to the token, the token is only a vehicle (a data point in a ledger). You used to buy paper stocks, then binary strings of 0s and 1s, tomorrow randomly generated strings of letters and numbers. You own the share because it's assigned to your identity in the cloud. Why can't you see that you can do exactly the same with a token..

You will not buy a token of Amazon.. you will buy a share of amazon that is on the blockchain (it is tokenized).. just like you can tokenize anything you want.. it's just a means of automating transactions and contracts more efficiently, safely and cheaply.


Blockchain is, by definition, less efficient (in terms of speed) than traditional databases. By its very nature it has to be slower and less private than other solutions.

Also...1s and 0s, then characters? What the fuck? Why would you say something transparently nonsensical like that?


New technologies don't improve over time. Thank you for your input Greg, brilliant as always.
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Re: stock tok etc.

Post #1392 by Craig » Fri Nov 16, 2018 5:07 pm

That's not at all what I said. Don't put up stupid straw man arguments, Nick.

Calculating hashes and chain validation will never be computationally free. Making the entire chain public will never be as private as not. These are the things that make blockchain useful, but there are drawbacks depending on the use case.
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Re: stock tok etc.

Post #1393 by Slick Nick » Fri Nov 16, 2018 5:21 pm

That said, how do you go from “buying a token now” to....profit is beyond me.


Buy solid crypto projects like the one I did for litteral pennies or invest in solid STOs next year. Major partners, solid team, etc. Keep tokens in wallet. Tokens become securities, they are listed on Nasdaq. Company becomes the leader in travel blockchain. Share value explodes. You are rich.


If Amazon shares get “tokanized”, then great. It basically kills clearing houses. Nobody is going to pay more for the shares, though (otherwise, non tokanized shares would simply be preferred). If nobody is going to pay more....how do you as a pre-emptive investor in token cash in?


a) By tokenizing your equity as a company (this really just means offering the possibility to buy it on the blockchain), you are exposing yourself to 8 Billion potential buyers any where in the world. Right now, those buyers keep their money in socks or if lucky, bank accounts. Tomorrow, they will be able to invest in your company as long as they count as cellphone in their belongings. One click on your cellphone from Burkina Faso, you now own 5$ of Amazon. Simple supply and demand law. Supply of shares stays the same, potential buyers dramatically increases. Equilibrium is thus pushed upwards.

b) Again. Companies will be incentivized to move to those larger liquid markets.. those that will move to this space will see their valuation/profits rise as demonstraded in a). Those that don't, stay in a legacy system confined to local markets being fled by investors, will see their value dramatically reduced. Simple game theory here. You either join the newly improved ecosystem or you die. Your choice.

And lastly, since the system will be much more efficient, fast and safe.. then why would you want to remain in the slower and more flawed system?

Yes blockchain is now slower than electronic trading systems. But remember that time that you'd go to dépanneur and someone in front of you was paying with his debut card and the little lady had to connect to the internet, then the signal had to be processed and 20 seconds later it was finaly done and on top of the waiting times you had to pay 25 cents fee.. well, yeah, paying with cash was so much faster and efficient. But the tech improved, and blockchain tech is improving very quickly. It will become much more faster, safe and reliable than what we have now.

Again, Banes is very correct on saying that we don't have any form of regulations for this and that this will take an amazing amount of time... but it will get there eventually.
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Re: stock tok etc.

Post #1394 by Slick Nick » Fri Nov 16, 2018 5:26 pm

Craig wrote:That's not at all what I said. Don't put up stupid straw man arguments, Nick.

Calculating hashes and chain validation will never be computationally free. Making the entire chain public will never be as private as not. These are the things that make blockchain useful, but there are drawbacks depending on the use case.



Tell that to the 1000s of PhDs working on improving scalability, transaction times, proof of stake shifts.
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Re: stock tok etc.

Post #1395 by Slick Nick » Fri Nov 16, 2018 6:02 pm

Slick Nick wrote:
Buy solid crypto projects like the one I did for litteral pennies or invest in solid STOs next year. Major partners, solid team, etc. Keep tokens in wallet. Tokens become securities, they are listed on Nasdaq. Company becomes the leader in travel blockchain. Share value explodes. You are rich.


Take the exemple of the ICO I invested in.

Winding Tree (LIF).

Current market capitalization is: $4,1 Million
Total supply of tokens is: 24 976 439 (LIF) No more can be printed. Coin supplies have a hard cap determined by the protocol. You can't print any more tokens even if your life was depending on it.

The company is partnering with 5 of the largest carriers in the world. I think the project is serious.

Current share (token) price is 0,20$

If Winding Tree becomes a leader in the travel industry, where do you expect the market cap to be? Couple of millions? Maybe a couple of hundred millions? Maybe billions?

Yeah you can say it's like investing in penny stocks.. but I don't know a lot of penny stock partnerships being announced by official press releases from Air Canada. The project can crash and burn and I will have lost some money... but if the project actually succeeds, the upside is very very interesting.
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Re: stock tok etc.

Post #1396 by PredsFan77 » Fri Nov 16, 2018 6:13 pm

CDX.NA.IG.9



















[LEFT]Image[/LEFT]
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Re: stock tok etc.

Post #1397 by Craig » Fri Nov 16, 2018 7:00 pm

Slick Nick wrote:
Craig wrote:That's not at all what I said. Don't put up stupid straw man arguments, Nick.

Calculating hashes and chain validation will never be computationally free. Making the entire chain public will never be as private as not. These are the things that make blockchain useful, but there are drawbacks depending on the use case.



Tell that to the 1000s of PhDs working on improving scalability, transaction times, proof of stake shifts.


I don't have to. It's commonly accepted fact. Doing something takes longer than literally not doing that thing.
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Re: stock tok etc.

Post #1398 by Craig » Fri Nov 16, 2018 7:03 pm

All the poor people combined who want to buy 5 bucks of a stock aren't even that relevant to demand for stocks, compared to the big institutional investors. Nor will their added demand change the share price, as the majority of the market is rational and will just sell as shares get overvalued.
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Re: stock tok etc.

Post #1399 by Slick Nick » Fri Nov 16, 2018 7:17 pm

Dog wrote:Is Winding Tree a company?


But I never thought that I was buying shares in a company dog. I found the project interesting and wanted to speculate a little, gain some bitcoin. I'm up 250% on my initial investment, I could sell it now and cash it out. But with the emergence of regulated security token markets, my perspective on this is changing.

The way an ICO works, is that a portion of the issued tokens remain for the company. In the case of LIF, it's 25%. This is a strong incentive to make them as valuable as possible. And the best way to do that is to transform those "worthless" ICO tokens into fully compliant Security Tokens that would be traded on a major exchange.

If this was simply a money grab, they wouldn't be announcing partnerships. Besides, the money that 25% of a billion dollar company that it could potentially become dwarfs the couple of millions that they gathered. The shareholders of Winding Tree either own 25% of potential shares in their publicly traded stock or they own nothing. They can't sell those tokens right now, no one will buy them and they will make the price crash to zero and kill their project... pretty good idea to go the STO route, don't you think?

This means that, like it has been suggested by many important people in this field, that these companies are only waiting for Security Markets to finally advent to change their status from ICO to STO, this process would give every actual token holder a legal share in that company.

They also probably don't want to piss off the large investors, tarnish their names and those of Lufthansa, KLM and Air Canada.. and I'm sure those companies made sure they would not.

So yeah, it's a gamble dog... I never pretended that I was investing in an official company.. but if it plays out like I think it will...

besides, I cashed out 300% profits on my crypto trading and everything that I have in this game is free money. I could lose all of it and still made more much money than I would have, had I invested in an ETF.
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Re: stock tok etc.

Post #1400 by Slick Nick » Fri Nov 16, 2018 7:22 pm

Dog wrote:Also, you do know that electronic shares trade very easily by two clicks on a smartphone from anywhere in the world and Amazon could, tomorrow morning, make its per share price $1 if it so wished (by way of a share split). They don’t cause marketing -there is a perception against penny stock. Also higher volatility. Apple split it’s stock not long ago (in half) to bring down its price. RBC has a higher market cap than TD and, look, TD’s share price is higher! Market cap is of course number of issued shared X price. Divide existing shares in two and you also half the per share stock price (a share split). Perfectly legal and done all the time.

The possible advantage of blockchain for public stock down the road is possibly cutting out the middle mens (like clearing houses that operate in the background). Litterally, save you a few bucks per trade. It doesn’t increase liquidity (which is already wide open) or ease/speed of trade.


You're not splitting the share.. that's the magic dog, you're fractionning it.. and that, your stupid legacy system can't do. Neither cant it flawlessly and automatically issue dividens to anyone with a cellphone, or send your tax info to the government. Explain to me again how your legacy system is so much superior? Dog why can't you accept the simple fact that blockchain is the new tech? Is it because you've been told that bitcoin is for buying heroin on the deep web?

:wink:

In the end, you might be right and I'm not advising you to take part in any of this... but let's see how it unfolds.

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