Everybody vs. Everybody Middle East GDT III

bloop bloop blah
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Post #951 by NyQuil » Wed Dec 17, 2014 11:43 am

I remember the Tamil Tigers had an "air force".
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Post #952 by AD » Wed Dec 17, 2014 12:11 pm

mooseOAK wrote:An air force is a very technically involved and very expensive entity so it can't really be a militia doing this, can it?


All you need is money. The people with the expertise haven't vanished.
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Post #953 by Sturminator » Thu Dec 18, 2014 2:58 pm

dempsey_k wrote:This isn't really a first. Islamists were flying F-14 Tomcats in Iran years before Top Gun was released.


Yes, but were they trading homosexual innuendos in the shower with men named Slider and getting sunshine blown up their asses by Tom Skerritt?
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Post #954 by NyQuil » Thu Dec 18, 2014 3:05 pm

It was tough to keep them flying without US parts.
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Post #955 by NyQuil » Fri Dec 19, 2014 10:46 am

The coalition air campaign in Iraq has killed several senior ISIS officials, including its military chief, U.S. officials said Thursday, as Canada confirmed CF-18 warplanes had destroyed two of the terror group’s positions.

The Pentagon said “multiple senior and mid-level leaders” of the Islamic State of Iraq and Al-Sham had died in “targeted coalition air strikes” over the past month. The attacks took place in mid-November and early December, but the deaths were only recently confirmed.

Those killed were identified as Haji Mutazz, ISIS boss Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi’s deputy in Iraq, and Abd al Basit, the military emir for Iraq. Radwan Talib, the ISIS commander for the city of Mosul, was also killed.


http://news.nationalpost.com/2014/12/18/coalition-air-strikes-kill-multiple-key-isis-leaders-in-iraq-pentagon-says/
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Post #956 by Sturminator » Fri Dec 19, 2014 1:49 pm

This whole "let's stop just being terrorists and control territory" thing was never a good idea.
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Post #957 by PredsFan77 » Fri Dec 19, 2014 2:29 pm

dempsey_k wrote: y'all

[RIGHT]
Image[/RIGHT]
CDX.NA.IG.9









[LEFT]Image[/LEFT]
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Post #958 by Sturminator » Fri Dec 19, 2014 3:40 pm

dempsey_k wrote:It'll be utterly disastrous for Sunni Arabs. Debaathification becomes Dedaeshification, with added ethnic cleansing.


By the time the world gives enough of a fuck to worry much about the fate of normal Sunni living in northern Iraq, the Kurds and Shi'a will have thoroughly fucked them. Mosul will become the capital of a new and muscular Kurdistan, and Erdogan's ass will pucker with joy. The Sunni jihadist movement will go back underground and continue blowing up Iraqi Shi'a on a weekly basis. Good times.
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Post #959 by The Virus » Fri Dec 19, 2014 5:26 pm

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Post #960 by Sturminator » Sat Dec 20, 2014 7:45 am

dempsey_k wrote:However, Kirkuk is already problematic for the KRG. There have been several suicide VBIEDs there. Just this week during Kurdistan Flag Day, a bunch of Arabs started beating up Kurds and prancing around with ISIS flags in Kirkuk. It's by no means a cakewalk taking it, and Mosul might be far tougher without some kind of mass exodus of Orcs and collaborators fleeing town and a bit of ethnic cleansing, which the KRG has shown itself not to be above in its retaking of Maxmur, Gwer, and Jalawla. And I heavily doubt the KCK and its many tentacles have any interest whatsoever in participating in that, but it's possible their pie in the sky talk of expanding "democratic confederalism" to other ethnicities could have a role in a retaken Mosul as they spread their Murray Bookchin gospel to Arabs - something they've already begun in Syria and Turkey.


Even Kirkuk is about 75% Arab. Controlling it with clean hands will be impossible. If the Kurds are serious about building a respectable state, they will need a capital, and if they designate Kirkuk as their capital and leave Mosul in the hands of the Sunni, they will place themselves in an indefensible position. The logic is CIV-level simple, but compelling, nonetheless. If Mosul does not fall under the control of the Kurds, it will be very difficult for them to maintain a geographically contiguous state which includes Kirkuk.

The Shi'a government in Baghdad will have approximately zero leverage to demand Mosul back once the dust settles, so the only question is how serious are the Kurds about holding it? Let's not forget how fresh the wounds still are, and that Mosul is the historic home of a great portion of Ba'ath party bigwigs. Lots of scores to settle there, even before ISIS came to town. A siege and invasion of ISIS-held Mosul would provide the perfect cover for the Peshmerga to drive Arab civilians out of the city in droves. The Kurds haven't been this close to autonomy since the fall of the Ottoman Empire; I doubt they soft-shoe it. This will get worse before it gets better.
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Post #961 by Sturminator » Sat Dec 20, 2014 10:50 am

Question for you demps: do you think an ascendent Kurdistan will handle its enemies with restraint on ideological grounds, or will the Kurds end up like basically every other pseudomarxist group that has come before them once they manage to consolidate power?

For my part, I must admit a certain skepticism regarding how much "atypical revolutionary behavior" we should expect from the Kurds on account of this Boochkin fella. This belief system, such as it is, seems to be emanating from a codex whose dissemination was very much a top-down affair, and occurred not so long ago, at that. One wonders how much the lower-level leadership (nevermind the trigger-pullers) really gives a shit about the beliefs of some distant American theorist. It would be an uplifting story if, as they fill the power vacuum, the KCK handles the Arabs of northern Iraq with some modicum of respect, but I see a large potential for disappointment here.
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Post #962 by The Virus » Sat Dec 20, 2014 11:34 am

Sturminator wrote:Even Kirkuk is about 75% Arab. Controlling it with clean hands will be impossible. If the Kurds are serious about building a respectable state, they will need a capital, and if they designate Kirkuk as their capital and leave Mosul in the hands of the Sunni, they will place themselves in an indefensible position. The logic is CIV-level simple, but compelling, nonetheless. If Mosul does not fall under the control of the Kurds, it will be very difficult for them to maintain a geographically contiguous state which includes Kirkuk.

The Shi'a government in Baghdad will have approximately zero leverage to demand Mosul back once the dust settles, so the only question is how serious are the Kurds about holding it? Let's not forget how fresh the wounds still are, and that Mosul is the historic home of a great portion of Ba'ath party bigwigs. Lots of scores to settle there, even before ISIS came to town. A siege and invasion of ISIS-held Mosul would provide the perfect cover for the Peshmerga to drive Arab civilians out of the city in droves. The Kurds haven't been this close to autonomy since the fall of the Ottoman Empire; I doubt they soft-shoe it. This will get worse before it gets better.


Minor clash at University of Kirkuk. Arabs and Kurds going at it.

[YOUTUBE]vg3aHUqM3q8[/YOUTUBE]
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Post #963 by The Virus » Sun Dec 21, 2014 11:23 am

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Post #964 by IcE ColD » Sun Dec 21, 2014 12:05 pm

embracedbias wrote:I fucking hate titles like this. "And this is what he discovered" go fuck yourself


I think I'm getting it backward... because every time I see such a title, it prevents me from clicking the link.

FB ruined me.
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Post #965 by The Virus » Sun Dec 21, 2014 12:24 pm

embracedbias wrote:I fucking hate titles like this. "And this is what he discovered" go fuck yourself


It's tabloid-ish for sure. He'll be really sympathetic to them, but at least some sort of insight will be given.

Iranian Airstrikes in Iraq Are a Warning and a Sign of Progress
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Post #966 by Sturminator » Sun Dec 21, 2014 1:21 pm

embracedbias wrote:I fucking hate titles like this. "And this is what he discovered" go fuck yourself


The best part is that "what he discovered" is nothing new, whatsoever.
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Post #967 by The Virus » Sun Dec 21, 2014 1:33 pm

Fuck you all. It's for the common folk who don't really pay attention (and it's mostly just a preview). I'd post Listers latest piece, but I think maybe Sturminator and Dempsey are the only ones who will read the whole thing.

Anbar sounds fucked. Talked to Quentin Sommerville and he confirms clashes took place between ISIS and US forces. We'll see just how committed we are to Anbar, because there is no way it holds up without US ground support.

Iranian Airpower In Iraq
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Post #968 by The Virus » Mon Dec 22, 2014 11:53 am

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Post #969 by Sturminator » Tue Dec 23, 2014 2:33 am

I'm waiting with baited breath for a duchy of lesbian nouveau valkyries to pop up in ISIS-occupied territory.
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Post #970 by Ernie » Tue Dec 23, 2014 12:09 pm

dempsey_k wrote:God bless you girls

[tweet]547048011407577088[/tweet]
[tweet]547015668147953664[/tweet]


$20 says you had a couple of good rounds of fapping to this.
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Post #971 by Ernie » Tue Dec 23, 2014 2:27 pm

dempsey_k wrote:I'm not paying you $20 for thinking about me masturbating.


so you're admitting it?
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Post #972 by AD » Tue Dec 23, 2014 2:32 pm

I'm masturbating to this conversation right now!
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Post #973 by Ernie » Tue Dec 23, 2014 3:02 pm

ok that's TMI.
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Post #974 by The Virus » Wed Dec 24, 2014 4:39 am

ISIS managed to shoot down a Jordanian jet over Raqqa, Syria and captured the pilot alive. Yikes.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/12/24/us-mideast-crisis-syria-crash-idUSKBN0K20GJ20141224
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Post #975 by Sturminator » Wed Dec 24, 2014 6:33 am

dempsey_k wrote:When this op is over, it'll be much easier for the next two offensives in Mosul and Hasakah now that they're split.


Mosul is essentially encircled. ISIS fighters could still flee south into the Sunni triangle, but there are no more escape routes east. This is where the terrain of the middle east really favors western forces. Few major thoroughfares and lots of open space make it easy to deny passage through areas without putting boots on the ground. ISIS must know that there will be tight overwatch of the eastern roads out of Mosul from this point forward. I am curious to see if they fight to the last man in Mosul or retreat to the Sunni heartland and regroup. If they decide to fight to the last man, the battle for Mosul could get really ugly - like Aleppo bad. We shall see.
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Post #976 by Sturminator » Thu Dec 25, 2014 1:41 pm

dempsey_k wrote:We've already been engaging ISIS in Anbar alongside the ISF, with more troops on the way. ISIS still poses a serious threat, but their mystique of invincibility has vanished to say the least. More realistically, it's costed them in morale among their subjects. Lot of dying left to do, but the tide has turned.


We probably shouldn't underestimate just how pissed off the Sunni of Iraq are at this point. They have been murdered by the tens of thousands, driven out of Baghdad by force, and effectively disenfranchised by the Shi'a majority. Populations can be subdued by sufficient force, but it is an ugly process. The awakening worked in large part because we were able to convince the Sunni that they had something to lose by siding with al Qaeda. What have they got left to lose today?

I wish I could say that I see a diplomatic path out of the mire, but I do not. The Sunni have grossly overplayed their hand, and will be made to bleed for it. In other news, alQ claims to have developed an ass bomb. Merry christmas.
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Post #977 by The Virus » Thu Dec 25, 2014 9:22 pm

dempsey_k wrote: Religion isn't like politics, it grabs you much deeper. I think the Sunnis have condemned themselves to something far worse than the fate of the Third Reich.


I've read a few times that they have even resorted to sending delegations of tribal members to...Iran..basically to beg for guns. Has this ever happened before? Something tells Khameini does not mind this one bit.
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Post #978 by Sturminator » Fri Dec 26, 2014 12:40 pm

Not counting Hamas, you mean.
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Post #979 by Ernie » Mon Dec 29, 2014 8:22 pm

Doesn't really seem like a fair fight. Haftar / Thinni will control the oil revenues and have the international recognition.

Algeria, Tunisia, and Egypt are all coming down on the side of Haftar. Qatar and Turkey might sympathize with Libya Dawn, but it's doubtful they could come out and outright support it.
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Post #980 by Sturminator » Tue Dec 30, 2014 5:05 am

dempsey_k wrote:Libya is about to get as fucked up as Syria


Predicting that this or any conflict will become a Syria-level epic clusterfuck is pretty bold. This could drag on and leave Tripoli in ruins, or it could be over quickly. From one point of view, it could be seen as progress that there are now only two main factions vying for power as opposed to the dozen or so that we had two years ago. Analyzing the current crisis in terms of the "last narrative" (Syria, in this case) is a questionable method.

I don't think we'll see a full-on regional conflagration in Libya, no. We can revisit this in a couple more years and see who was right.
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Post #981 by The Virus » Tue Dec 30, 2014 2:12 pm

dempsey_k wrote:Libya is about to get as fucked up as Syria:

http://foreignpolicy.com/2014/12/29/a-ground-invasion-of-the-capital-is-imminent-libya-dawn-haftar-militias/

Won't be surprising to see Algeria and Egypt get into the mix, and possibly affecting Tunisia's fragile new democracy.


Hmm. The reports of ISIS and other Islamists trying to build one cohesive ground force to take this on makes a bit more sense now.

Deaths in Iraq show two sides of Iran's role in sectarian conflict
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Post #982 by jester » Wed Dec 31, 2014 9:16 am

dempsey_k wrote:Lol rumors via both Baghdad and Erbil that ISIS has an Ebola outbreak in Mosul.

Gonna put that one on the hot take stove for a while and let it simmer.


In all seriousness, let's pray that isn't true.
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Post #983 by Sturminator » Wed Dec 31, 2014 9:39 am

jester wrote:In all seriousness, let's pray that isn't true.


Almost shades of Athens during the Peleponnesian war. The Kurds would surely do a happy dance at the prospect of a suddenly depopulated Mosul ripe for the taking.

If disease turns the seemingly inevitable battle for Mosul into a simple affair, it might actually be a good thing. Hard to say.
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Post #984 by jester » Wed Dec 31, 2014 9:47 am

The problem would be containment. Given the international element, it isn't impossible it would show up there. But, man, that could get scary quick if it starts spreading East from there.

(I do suspect it's BS, though.)
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Post #985 by AD » Wed Dec 31, 2014 10:07 am

God works in mysterious ways.
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Post #986 by Sturminator » Wed Dec 31, 2014 10:29 am

jester wrote:The problem would be containment. Given the international element, it isn't impossible it would show up there. But, man, that could get scary quick if it starts spreading East from there.


Given the way arabs wipe their asses and handle corpses, it could get pretty fucking gory.
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Post #987 by Ernie » Wed Dec 31, 2014 11:21 am

Ebola would make a pretty good biological weapon. Drop it on ISIS territory and it wipes out most of the problem.
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Post #988 by Ernie » Wed Dec 31, 2014 11:39 am

Ha that's what they did in the middle ages, except they flung from catapults instead of dropped from planes.
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Post #989 by The Virus » Wed Jan 07, 2015 7:37 pm

Kataib al-Imam Ali: Portrait of an Iraqi Shiite Militant Group Fighting ISIS

On Sunday, Mr. Rouhani said the economy was in a bad state and that it could no longer be held hostage to an anti-American and anti-Western ideology and should be treated less ideologically. He also said that direct referendums must be organized so that ordinary Iranians could exercise more influence over important national decisions, like the nuclear deal.

Mr. Khamenei seemed to be answering those remarks, saying the nation had enjoyed great success, in contrast to the “wrong and uncalculated remarks that some make.”


http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/08/world/middleeast/irans-supreme-leader-is-skeptical-of-nuclear-talks-with-us.html
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Post #990 by The Virus » Thu Jan 08, 2015 1:28 pm

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Post #991 by The Virus » Sun Jan 11, 2015 7:45 pm

http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Middle-East/2015/Jan-10/283677-intelligence-shows-assad-building-nuclear-plant-report.ashx

Totally not a pretext for military action in Syria. Unnamed sources. All the major outlets pushing this story. Unbelievable.
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Post #992 by Sturminator » Mon Jan 12, 2015 5:24 am

Shredder wrote:http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Middle-East/2015/Jan-10/283677-intelligence-shows-assad-building-nuclear-plant-report.ashx

Totally not a pretext for military action in Syria. Unnamed sources. All the major outlets pushing this story. Unbelievable.


Lol...you're right, it probably isn't a pretext for military action in Syria. If you're looking for a western regime mouthpiece to push a cooked-up story in prelude to a war, Der Spiegel is pretty much the last place you'd look. Der Spiegel was one of the publications that most harshly criticized the "yellow cake presentation" at the UN in the run-up to the Iraq war, for your edification. Germans aren't about invading foreign countries right now, nor are they feeling particularly friendly towards the Anglo-American intelligence community. If Der Spiegel broke this story, it is almost certainly because they believe it to be true.

You can go back to wrapping your head in cellophane now.
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Post #993 by The Virus » Mon Jan 12, 2015 10:51 am

Sturminator wrote:Lol...you're right, it probably isn't a pretext for military action in Syria. If you're looking for a western regime mouthpiece to push a cooked-up story in prelude to a war, Der Spiegel is pretty much the last place you'd look. Der Spiegel was one of the publications that most harshly criticized the "yellow cake presentation" at the UN in the run-up to the Iraq war, for your edification. Germans aren't about invading foreign countries right now, nor are they feeling particularly friendly towards the Anglo-American intelligence community. If Der Spiegel broke this story, it is almost certainly because they believe it to be true.

You can go back to wrapping your head in cellophane now.


Chill, I was being Alex Jones. My point was it's shameful major outlets would publish this bullshit. How dumb do they think their audiences are?

And you of all people know how slimy politicians try to use "unnamed sources" etc to push their political/military agendas. What's sick is the media goes right along with it.
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Post #994 by The Virus » Mon Jan 12, 2015 11:49 am

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Post #995 by zamboner » Mon Jan 12, 2015 1:04 pm

Who cares. JeSuisCharlie
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Post #996 by The Virus » Mon Jan 12, 2015 1:16 pm

Ok Col. Ralph Peters. Nuke all the Muslims.


Someone hacked CENTCOM as ISIS, but ISIS doesn't refer to themselves as ISIS. Even CENTCOMS YouTube page has been hacked. IS does not like when people refer to them as ISIS now.

I have Martin Dempseys info now though, which is cool.
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Post #997 by The Virus » Mon Jan 12, 2015 7:27 pm

Sturminator wrote:Lol...you're right, it probably isn't a pretext for military action in Syria. If you're looking for a western regime mouthpiece to push a cooked-up story in prelude to a war, Der Spiegel is pretty much the last place you'd look. Der Spiegel was one of the publications that most harshly criticized the "yellow cake presentation" at the UN in the run-up to the Iraq war, for your edification. Germans aren't about invading foreign countries right now, nor are they feeling particularly friendly towards the Anglo-American intelligence community. If Der Spiegel broke this story, it is almost certainly because they believe it to be true.

You can go back to wrapping your head in cellophane now.


Neo-con scumbags already using it. https://www.commentarymagazine.com/2015/01/12/new-syria-threat-requires-u-s-action-nuclear-wmd-iran/

Encouraging regional ownership of the fight against the Islamic State

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