The Battle for the Fenwick Cup - Out of Town GDT and Discussion

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Re: The Battle for the Fenwick Cup - Out of Town GDT and Discussion

Post #8101 by Curry Rage » Thu Jan 24, 2019 4:05 pm

I imagine for a 30 year old guy who’s been stuck in Russia for years, 14 million to do just about anything looks like #winning.
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Re: The Battle for the Fenwick Cup - Out of Town GDT and Discussion

Post #8102 by Honus Joglund » Tue Jan 29, 2019 7:54 pm

Honus Joglund wrote:Buffalo is in the middle of probably the luckiest ten game winning streak in history.

They've won nine one-goal games and seven overtime/shootout games in this run. The tenth game was a 4-2 game until they scored an empty netter. They've been out-shot seven times and only out-shot the opposition twice. They've faced four backup goalies, and one third stringer who got pulled for the fourth stringer. Their expected goals for percentage in these ten games is a revolting 43.7%. Last year the worst xGF% in the league (Buffalo, coincidentally) was 45.0%.

This team is going to fall apart soon.


7-12-4 since I posted this. Image

Better luck next year, Sabs.
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Re: The Battle for the Fenwick Cup - Out of Town GDT and Discussion

Post #8103 by Zardoz » Wed Jan 30, 2019 10:27 pm

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Re: The Battle for the Fenwick Cup - Out of Town GDT and Discussion

Post #8104 by Honus Joglund » Thu Jan 31, 2019 12:01 am

I read on Twitter yesterday that he played something like 20 matches of Fortnite before they played the Bruins, which would (apparently) take like three hours to do. Between morning skate, media, meetings/video, meals, nap, pregame soccer, warm-ups and the actual game itself, how do you find three hours to play video games?

He has 4 goals in 26 games and played 10:55 against Boston. This is probably 100% unrelated.
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Re: The Battle for the Fenwick Cup - Out of Town GDT and Discussion

Post #8105 by Whit Dickman » Thu Jan 31, 2019 9:29 am

My guess is fortnite is a symptom, not the cause.

That is, he isn't engaged with the sport enough to be at the top of his game (might be depressed or is just unmotivated for whatever reason). He fills the gap with fortnite.

Insofar as fortnite had a causal role, it would be in allowing him to distract himself from the problem. But if it wasn't fortnite it would probably be something else. Drinking, for example.
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Re: The Battle for the Fenwick Cup - Out of Town GDT and Discussion

Post #8106 by MonkeyWrench » Thu Jan 31, 2019 9:49 am

Respect. Keep 'er goin Paul.

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Re: The Battle for the Fenwick Cup - Out of Town GDT and Discussion

Post #8107 by MonkeyWrench » Thu Jan 31, 2019 12:29 pm

Forgot this was released a year ago. I just saw it was posted on the tsn yt page this morning.
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Re: The Battle for the Fenwick Cup - Out of Town GDT and Discussion

Post #8108 by vf » Thu Jan 31, 2019 2:05 pm

Laine is the new Kovalev. Tons of talent with zero fucks given.
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Re: The Battle for the Fenwick Cup - Out of Town GDT and Discussion

Post #8109 by Honus Joglund » Thu Jan 31, 2019 6:43 pm

Here's someone who's having an under the radar unbelievable season: Mattias Ekholm.

He has 37 points in 51 games. He's leading the Nashville D is scoring and PPG despite getting by far the least PP time (1:14 less than Ellis). He's also a total stud in his own zone.

He should be getting Norris buzz.
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Re: The Battle for the Fenwick Cup - Out of Town GDT and Discussion

Post #8110 by MonkeyWrench » Thu Jan 31, 2019 7:25 pm

I watch preds every now and again. He's been arguably their best overall D this year.
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Re: The Battle for the Fenwick Cup - Out of Town GDT and Discussion

Post #8111 by Thomas Malthus » Thu Jan 31, 2019 11:22 pm

I’ve low key coveted him for a while but Poile won’t ever trade him.
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Re: The Battle for the Fenwick Cup - Out of Town GDT and Discussion

Post #8112 by Thomas Malthus » Sat Feb 02, 2019 10:18 am



Read this whole thread, fucking great.
"If you torture the data long enough, it will confess to anything." - Ronald Coase
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Re: The Battle for the Fenwick Cup - Out of Town GDT and Discussion

Post #8113 by Geo » Wed Feb 06, 2019 12:39 pm

The Anaheim Ducks are 3-13-4 in their last 20 games.

The Edmonton Oilers are 5-13-2 in their last 20 games. Those 5 wins: at Ari 3-1, at Ana 4-0, vs FLA 4-3 (SO), vs BUF 7-2, at VAN 3-2 (SO).

The Colorado Avalanche are also 5-13-2 in their last 20 games.
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Re: The Battle for the Fenwick Cup - Out of Town GDT and Discussion

Post #8114 by MonkeyWrench » Wed Feb 06, 2019 2:28 pm

I was shocked when i saw anaheim's overall season record. Bad, but not as bad as i thought. Western conf is a dumpster fire.
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Re: The Battle for the Fenwick Cup - Out of Town GDT and Discussion

Post #8115 by Whit Dickman » Wed Feb 06, 2019 8:13 pm

Update: Josh Leivo has 8 points in 22 games with the Canucks and is who we thought he was.
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Re: The Battle for the Fenwick Cup - Out of Town GDT and Discussion

Post #8116 by clawfirst » Wed Feb 06, 2019 8:43 pm

An NHLer that can play in the top 9 of most teams. Just not on our deep team
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Re: The Battle for the Fenwick Cup - Out of Town GDT and Discussion

Post #8117 by Whit Dickman » Wed Feb 06, 2019 11:23 pm

3rd liner but not one that kills penalties. No big loss
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Re: The Battle for the Fenwick Cup - Out of Town GDT and Discussion

Post #8118 by Dynrehab » Thu Feb 07, 2019 3:06 pm

Whit Dickman wrote:Update: Josh Leivo has 8 points in 22 games with the Canucks and is who we thought he was.


So 4 points in his 1st 6 games and 4 points in 16 games since?
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Re: The Battle for the Fenwick Cup - Out of Town GDT and Discussion

Post #8119 by mooseOAK » Thu Feb 07, 2019 9:58 pm

Goal and an assist so far tonight.
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Re: The Battle for the Fenwick Cup - Out of Town GDT and Discussion

Post #8120 by AGENT ZERO » Sun Feb 10, 2019 2:50 pm

Don't look now but Leivo currently has more G/60 and P/60 than any Leafs LW not named Johnsson, and his defensive impact has somehow been very good as well.
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Re: The Battle for the Fenwick Cup - Out of Town GDT and Discussion

Post #8121 by Whit Dickman » Sun Feb 10, 2019 4:16 pm

STFU AZ
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Re: The Battle for the Fenwick Cup - Out of Town GDT and Discussion

Post #8122 by Thomas Malthus » Sun Feb 10, 2019 6:09 pm

We're talking about a small sample here, why use G/60 or P/60? His sh% with Vancouver is like 15% while with us it was like 7%. His 5v5 sh% over his career is like 10%. That G/60 is gonna fall off. A nice part of his increase in P/60 is coming from secondary assists (Not that Johnsson's free from benefitting from secondary assists). His individual xG/60 is below Ennis and Hyman. With Vancouver he's above Hyman and Marleau. While he was with the Leafs he's below Johnsson and tied with Marleau.

Don't get me wrong, from a value perspective, I think Leivo would have been a fine and inexpensive replacement for Marleau. If Marleau made what Leivo made then everyone would love him. Aside from Marleau being a better skater, they are pretty similar IMO: can cycle and forecheck, great shot, but opportunistic players reliant on other to drive play. I think Leivo type players are what Dubas should be looking for going forward to fill out our roster and the cap gets tighter ad precludes us from buying depth through free agency.

But from an actual production perspective, it makes sense that he wasn't displacing anyone in our lineup. Take what I've said above and add to it that looking at ixG/60 over the past three years has Leivo below Hyman and Marleau and pretty much tied with Ennis and Johnsson.You can look at a bunch of different metrics, he's right there with all of these guys. He's good value for what he brings but would the team be better with him instead of Marleau, Hyman, Johnsson, or even Ennis? It's not clear at all that this is the case.
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Re: The Battle for the Fenwick Cup - Out of Town GDT and Discussion

Post #8123 by Whit Dickman » Sun Feb 10, 2019 7:04 pm

STFU TM
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Re: The Battle for the Fenwick Cup - Out of Town GDT and Discussion

Post #8124 by AGENT ZERO » Sun Feb 10, 2019 7:25 pm

Thomas Malthus wrote:We're talking about a small sample here, why use G/60 or P/60? His sh% with Vancouver is like 15% while with us it was like 7%. His 5v5 sh% over his career is like 10%. That G/60 is gonna fall off. A nice part of his increase in P/60 is coming from secondary assists (Not that Johnsson's free from benefitting from secondary assists). His individual xG/60 is below Ennis and Hyman. With Vancouver he's above Hyman and Marleau. While he was with the Leafs he's below Johnsson and tied with Marleau.

Don't get me wrong, from a value perspective, I think Leivo would have been a fine and inexpensive replacement for Marleau. If Marleau made what Leivo made then everyone would love him. Aside from Marleau being a better skater, they are pretty similar IMO: can cycle and forecheck, great shot, but opportunistic players reliant on other to drive play. I think Leivo type players are what Dubas should be looking for going forward to fill out our roster and the cap gets tighter ad precludes us from buying depth through free agency.

But from an actual production perspective, it makes sense that he wasn't displacing anyone in our lineup. Take what I've said above and add to it that looking at ixG/60 over the past three years has Leivo below Hyman and Marleau and pretty much tied with Ennis and Johnsson.You can look at a bunch of different metrics, he's right there with all of these guys. He's good value for what he brings but would the team be better with him instead of Marleau, Hyman, Johnsson, or even Ennis? It's not clear at all that this is the case.


Why would we use raw point totals for a forward who has played bottom 6 minutes? Additionally, this is not a new trend. Leivo has always been an effective scorer for the minutes he plays.
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Re: The Battle for the Fenwick Cup - Out of Town GDT and Discussion

Post #8125 by AGENT ZERO » Sun Feb 10, 2019 7:27 pm

Also to be clear, I would not pick Leivo over Hyman. I would easily take him over Marleau, Ennis, Brown and Lindholm/Goat though.
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Re: The Battle for the Fenwick Cup - Out of Town GDT and Discussion

Post #8126 by Thomas Malthus » Sun Feb 10, 2019 8:26 pm

AGENT ZERO wrote:
Thomas Malthus wrote:We're talking about a small sample here, why use G/60 or P/60? His sh% with Vancouver is like 15% while with us it was like 7%. His 5v5 sh% over his career is like 10%. That G/60 is gonna fall off. A nice part of his increase in P/60 is coming from secondary assists (Not that Johnsson's free from benefitting from secondary assists). His individual xG/60 is below Ennis and Hyman. With Vancouver he's above Hyman and Marleau. While he was with the Leafs he's below Johnsson and tied with Marleau.

Don't get me wrong, from a value perspective, I think Leivo would have been a fine and inexpensive replacement for Marleau. If Marleau made what Leivo made then everyone would love him. Aside from Marleau being a better skater, they are pretty similar IMO: can cycle and forecheck, great shot, but opportunistic players reliant on other to drive play. I think Leivo type players are what Dubas should be looking for going forward to fill out our roster and the cap gets tighter ad precludes us from buying depth through free agency.

But from an actual production perspective, it makes sense that he wasn't displacing anyone in our lineup. Take what I've said above and add to it that looking at ixG/60 over the past three years has Leivo below Hyman and Marleau and pretty much tied with Ennis and Johnsson.You can look at a bunch of different metrics, he's right there with all of these guys. He's good value for what he brings but would the team be better with him instead of Marleau, Hyman, Johnsson, or even Ennis? It's not clear at all that this is the case.


Why would we use raw point totals for a forward who has played bottom 6 minutes? Additionally, this is not a new trend. Leivo has always been an effective scorer for the minutes he plays.


Rate stats are fine, I never said otherwise. I used them too, if you noticed. The issue is that you're looking at goals and points which are subject to lots of noise in small samples. Again, I'm not saying that Leivo isn't effective in the minutes he plays, just that if you're looking at what he brings to the table, it's tough to fault Babcock for not playing him over guys who are pretty much the same as he is. Switching from one of the guys I mentioned to Leivo doesn't really move the needle. And this is coming from a guy who wrote a long ass post talking about issues with the coaching staff. If you want to talk about Leivo's production v. cap hit then that shifts the blame from Babcock to Dubas for having a $6M guy on the roster when he could be replaced with a $1M guy.
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Re: The Battle for the Fenwick Cup - Out of Town GDT and Discussion

Post #8127 by Curry Rage » Mon Feb 11, 2019 1:43 pm

Nate Thompson to the Habs.
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Re: The Battle for the Fenwick Cup - Out of Town GDT and Discussion

Post #8128 by AGENT ZERO » Mon Feb 11, 2019 2:26 pm

Thomas Malthus wrote:
AGENT ZERO wrote:
Thomas Malthus wrote:We're talking about a small sample here, why use G/60 or P/60? His sh% with Vancouver is like 15% while with us it was like 7%. His 5v5 sh% over his career is like 10%. That G/60 is gonna fall off. A nice part of his increase in P/60 is coming from secondary assists (Not that Johnsson's free from benefitting from secondary assists). His individual xG/60 is below Ennis and Hyman. With Vancouver he's above Hyman and Marleau. While he was with the Leafs he's below Johnsson and tied with Marleau.

Don't get me wrong, from a value perspective, I think Leivo would have been a fine and inexpensive replacement for Marleau. If Marleau made what Leivo made then everyone would love him. Aside from Marleau being a better skater, they are pretty similar IMO: can cycle and forecheck, great shot, but opportunistic players reliant on other to drive play. I think Leivo type players are what Dubas should be looking for going forward to fill out our roster and the cap gets tighter ad precludes us from buying depth through free agency.

But from an actual production perspective, it makes sense that he wasn't displacing anyone in our lineup. Take what I've said above and add to it that looking at ixG/60 over the past three years has Leivo below Hyman and Marleau and pretty much tied with Ennis and Johnsson.You can look at a bunch of different metrics, he's right there with all of these guys. He's good value for what he brings but would the team be better with him instead of Marleau, Hyman, Johnsson, or even Ennis? It's not clear at all that this is the case.


Why would we use raw point totals for a forward who has played bottom 6 minutes? Additionally, this is not a new trend. Leivo has always been an effective scorer for the minutes he plays.


Rate stats are fine, I never said otherwise. I used them too, if you noticed. The issue is that you're looking at goals and points which are subject to lots of noise in small samples. Again, I'm not saying that Leivo isn't effective in the minutes he plays, just that if you're looking at what he brings to the table, it's tough to fault Babcock for not playing him over guys who are pretty much the same as he is. Switching from one of the guys I mentioned to Leivo doesn't really move the needle. And this is coming from a guy who wrote a long ass post talking about issues with the coaching staff. If you want to talk about Leivo's production v. cap hit then that shifts the blame from Babcock to Dubas for having a $6M guy on the roster when he could be replaced with a $1M guy.


I didn't bring up Leivo's numbers as a criticism of the Leafs. It was moreso to refute the claim that he has been as bad as some thought he was. The reality is that we will not what Leivo truly is until a team gives him an extended look in the top 6 with consistent minutes and pp opportunities.
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Re: The Battle for the Fenwick Cup - Out of Town GDT and Discussion

Post #8129 by Whit Dickman » Mon Feb 11, 2019 8:18 pm

Leivo is getting 2 minutes per game on the PP.
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Re: The Battle for the Fenwick Cup - Out of Town GDT and Discussion

Post #8130 by AGENT ZERO » Mon Feb 11, 2019 8:56 pm

And?
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Re: The Battle for the Fenwick Cup - Out of Town GDT and Discussion

Post #8131 by MonkeyWrench » Mon Feb 11, 2019 10:37 pm

Dipietro is getting a game tonight. 19 freaking years old!
What does his team do? They dont have a SOG until around the 12 minute mark of the 1st. And one of the dmen actually throws it into his own net past Dipietro.
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Re: The Battle for the Fenwick Cup - Out of Town GDT and Discussion

Post #8132 by LeafOfBread » Mon Feb 11, 2019 11:26 pm

MonkeyWrench wrote:Dipietro is getting a game tonight. 19 freaking years old!
What does his team do? They dont have a SOG until around the 12 minute mark of the 1st. And one of the dmen actually throws it into his own net past Dipietro.

5 goals on 15 shots :rudy:

Edit: correction, *6*goals on 15 shots

Might need to call CPS on Vancouver for allowing this kind of abuse
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Re: The Battle for the Fenwick Cup - Out of Town GDT and Discussion

Post #8133 by Whit Dickman » Tue Feb 12, 2019 9:37 am

AGENT ZERO wrote:And?

If you love Leivo so much why don't you marry him
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Re: The Battle for the Fenwick Cup - Out of Town GDT and Discussion

Post #8134 by Thomas Malthus » Tue Feb 12, 2019 9:40 am

I smell an avatar wager in here somewhere.
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Re: The Battle for the Fenwick Cup - Out of Town GDT and Discussion

Post #8135 by Honus Joglund » Tue Feb 12, 2019 10:13 am

LeafOfBread wrote:
MonkeyWrench wrote:Dipietro is getting a game tonight. 19 freaking years old!
What does his team do? They dont have a SOG until around the 12 minute mark of the 1st. And one of the dmen actually throws it into his own net past Dipietro.

5 goals on 15 shots :rudy:

Edit: correction, *6*goals on 15 shots

Might need to call CPS on Vancouver for allowing this kind of abuse


They could have kept him out until Wednesday, when they play the worst team in the world (Anaheim). Instead they gave him one of the best teams in the league.

:nucks:
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Re: The Battle for the Fenwick Cup - Out of Town GDT and Discussion

Post #8136 by paulster » Tue Feb 12, 2019 11:08 am

Honus Joglund wrote:
LeafOfBread wrote:
MonkeyWrench wrote:Dipietro is getting a game tonight. 19 freaking years old!
What does his team do? They dont have a SOG until around the 12 minute mark of the 1st. And one of the dmen actually throws it into his own net past Dipietro.

5 goals on 15 shots :rudy:

Edit: correction, *6*goals on 15 shots

Might need to call CPS on Vancouver for allowing this kind of abuse


They could have kept him out until Wednesday, when they play the worst team in the world (Anaheim). Instead they gave him one of the best teams in the league.

:nucks:


With a backup goalie on the bench who is unavailable due to injury so there’s no way they can pull the poor fucker.

Guess having your AHL team 3,000 miles away isn’t very convenient.
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Re: The Battle for the Fenwick Cup - Out of Town GDT and Discussion

Post #8137 by mooseOAK » Tue Feb 12, 2019 1:28 pm

Last night was my Canucks game for the season, poor kid.
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Re: The Battle for the Fenwick Cup - Out of Town GDT and Discussion

Post #8138 by WTF » Tue Feb 12, 2019 1:33 pm

LeafOfBread wrote:
MonkeyWrench wrote:Dipietro is getting a game tonight. 19 freaking years old!
What does his team do? They dont have a SOG until around the 12 minute mark of the 1st. And one of the dmen actually throws it into his own net past Dipietro.

5 goals on 15 shots :rudy:

Edit: correction, *6*goals on 15 shots

Might need to call CPS on Vancouver for allowing this kind of abuse


Speaking of Dipietros, what's Rick up to these days? Maybe the Canucks can give him a call?
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Re: The Battle for the Fenwick Cup - Out of Town GDT and Discussion

Post #8139 by LeafOfBread » Tue Feb 12, 2019 4:00 pm

mooseOAK wrote:Last night was my Canucks game for the season, poor kid.

Were you at Rogers Arena last night?
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Re: The Battle for the Fenwick Cup - Out of Town GDT and Discussion

Post #8140 by mooseOAK » Tue Feb 12, 2019 4:22 pm

LeafOfBread wrote:
mooseOAK wrote:Last night was my Canucks game for the season, poor kid.

Were you at Rogers Arena last night?

Yeah, took the daughters to the game. Chose the Sharks because they both grew up in the area and remember when Devon Setoguchi was the heart throb on the team.

Not a well attended game but the fans there gave Dipietro a big hand at the end.
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Re: The Battle for the Fenwick Cup - Out of Town GDT and Discussion

Post #8141 by LeafOfBread » Tue Feb 12, 2019 4:33 pm

mooseOAK wrote:
LeafOfBread wrote:
mooseOAK wrote:Last night was my Canucks game for the season, poor kid.

Were you at Rogers Arena last night?

Yeah, took the daughters to the game. Chose the Sharks because they both grew up in the area and remember when Devon Setoguchi was the heart throb on the team.

Not a well attended game but the fans there gave Dipietro a big hand at the end.

Ah nice, must be fun to be able to watch the Canucks shit the bed live and not be invested in any way, can only imagine the priceless reactions around you. I recall Canucks fans complaining about exorbitant ticket prices, is that still the case?
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Re: The Battle for the Fenwick Cup - Out of Town GDT and Discussion

Post #8142 by mooseOAK » Tue Feb 12, 2019 6:16 pm

I stopped listening to sports talk radio here a long time ago. The fan base as a whole truly believes that they are smarter than professional hockey people and the hosts are twits.

$85.00 for upper bowl tickets, don’t really know how that ranks.
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Re: The Battle for the Fenwick Cup - Out of Town GDT and Discussion

Post #8143 by Whit Dickman » Wed Feb 13, 2019 10:43 pm

Thomas Malthus wrote:I smell an avatar wager in here somewhere.

Does it smell like shit
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Re: The Battle for the Fenwick Cup - Out of Town GDT and Discussion

Post #8144 by AGENT ZERO » Thu Feb 14, 2019 4:52 pm

Dylan Strome has 31 points in 33 games since being traded to Chicago. Apparently Puljujaarvi is on the block in Edmonton, I wouldn't mind the Leafs picking him up for the right price as a similar high profile reclamation project.
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Re: The Battle for the Fenwick Cup - Out of Town GDT and Discussion

Post #8145 by Geo » Thu Feb 14, 2019 8:45 pm


Tanev injured. Act surprised, everyone.
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Re: The Battle for the Fenwick Cup - Out of Town GDT and Discussion

Post #8146 by Thomas Malthus » Thu Feb 14, 2019 9:30 pm

Chris TaNEVER IN THE LINEUP.
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Re: The Battle for the Fenwick Cup - Out of Town GDT and Discussion

Post #8147 by Dynrehab » Thu Feb 14, 2019 10:19 pm

AGENT ZERO wrote:Dylan Strome has 31 points in 33 games since being traded to Chicago. Apparently Puljujaarvi is on the block in Edmonton, I wouldn't mind the Leafs picking him up for the right price as a similar high profile reclamation project.


Connor Brown?

How much cap will that save?
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Re: The Battle for the Fenwick Cup - Out of Town GDT and Discussion

Post #8148 by MonkeyWrench » Thu Feb 14, 2019 11:01 pm

Dynrehab wrote:
AGENT ZERO wrote:Dylan Strome has 31 points in 33 games since being traded to Chicago. Apparently Puljujaarvi is on the block in Edmonton, I wouldn't mind the Leafs picking him up for the right price as a similar high profile reclamation project.


Connor Brown?

How much cap will that save?


Can he forechek? :babs:

Semi-serious question. I don't watch alot of Oilers hockey aside from maybe a HNIC game. If he's just not "clicking" with his current team, I could see him being dealt. If he's not skating, GMs will stay away until he proves otherwise.
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Re: The Battle for the Fenwick Cup - Out of Town GDT and Discussion

Post #8149 by clawfirst » Thu Feb 14, 2019 11:03 pm

As a rule always disagree with AZ. If he wants him, he'll be playing in Europe by 2021
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Re: The Battle for the Fenwick Cup - Out of Town GDT and Discussion

Post #8150 by Curry Rage » Fri Feb 15, 2019 6:27 am

Poolparty is big and skates really well. Seem to remember him having a bomb too. You’d have to think Babs could turn him into something useful. Those Finnish guys tend to have good fundamentals and are used to having to work and play a system.

A quick look tells me they’ve buried him in his own zone this year, turning a thoroughbred into a plowhorse at 20. Dumb. Better to put him in the AHL and let him get his feet under him and have him work on his 200’ game there. Their history developing top end picks that need a little more work isn’t stellar. They just toss them in the chel and then pull the reins when they fuck up.
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