2017-18 Pertinent Philadelphia Flyers News

[FlyHigh]

Flyers Twitterverse has been melting down because Pronman had us at No.12 in his latest prospect rankings. The methodology is kind of interesting, a couple points to consider.

1) Pronman seems to put a huge premium on "elite" NHL prospects and how much they boost a pool. For example, Detroit moved from 24 to 7 largely based on drafting Zadina (who Pronman sees as elite). I think Chicago got a similar bump because of Boqvist. According to Pronman, Flyers/NYR have the deepest systems in the league (ranked 11 and 12), but are lacking that top-end talent. Seems justifiable to me as guys like Frost/Farabee/Myers probably all fall into the category of "very good" NHL prospects rather than "top 10 in the world" prospects.

That being said, it seems a little odd to me to have Detroit go up 17 spots based on one player. I've never seen Zadina play, but just because you're viewed as an elite talent in your draft year doesn't mean you're going to be a gamebreaking player. The top-7 in the 2014 draft were Ekblad, Reinhart, Draisaitl, Dal Colle, Virtanen, and Fleury. Not exactly a murderer's row.

It seems like you have 1-2 sure thing prospects per year and then everybody else is basically a "we hope he's really good but we don't know for sure" type player, not sure if owning a top-10 draft pick in and of itself justifies massive reshuffles in rankings.

2) I do have a lot of sympathy for the "goalies are voodoo" argument and I think Pronman basically discounts Hart, but it does seem a little shortsighted to me. Goalies are notoriously tough, but at the same time, you're talking about a position that has 10x the impact on a game of any skater. I'm not sure what the solution is, but my understanding is that Hart is the best/2nd best prospect in the world at the most important position in the game, seems like that would necessitate a bit more consideration.

In the end, it's just rankings and seeing the fanbase freak out about it has been worth it.

[Rogers Pancreas]

In the end, it's a lazy list that isn't worth the bandwidth.

[CantSeeColors]

Not sure how one guy can accurately rate that many players anyway. It was an interesting read, but ultimately "meh" in terms of caring where we fall compared to other teams. Definitely agree that a guy like Zadina shouldn't swing a team that much on his own - if you're not at like the Matthews level, you're not worth more than all the rest of Harts, Frosts, Farabees, Myerses, etc. combined.

Also thought it was pretty crazy to just remove Sanheim from the ranks when he clearly didn't establish himself (edit: in the coach's eyes) last year. While I think he should have and is a shoo in this year, I'd still consider him a prospect.

[jester]

Not sure how one guy can accurately rate that many players anyway. It was an interesting read, but ultimately "meh" in terms of caring where we fall compared to other teams. Definitely agree that a guy like Zadina shouldn't swing a team that much on his own - if you're not at like the Matthews level, you're not worth more than all the rest of Harts, Frosts, Farabees, Myerses, etc. combined.

Also thought it was pretty crazy to just remove Sanheim from the ranks when he clearly didn't establish himself (edit: in the coach's eyes) last year. While I think he should have and is a shoo in this year, I'd still consider him a prospect.

It's all subjective, of course. One should, however, have an objective definition of a "prospect."

[FlyHigh]

Apparently we have a new mascot, "Gritty", and apparently it's not a prank? Yikes.

[Kilgore Trout]

It’s every bit as terrible as I feared it would be.

[FlyHigh]

I can't tell if they know it's awful and they're deliberately steering into it for the publicity. That creature is the thing nightmares are made of.

[Rogers Pancreas]

Are we sure it isn't Voracek?

[jester]

I can't tell if they know it's awful and they're deliberately steering into it for the publicity. That creature is the thing nightmares are made of.

Yeah ... I've seen people defending that monstrosity with "folks, calm yourself, it's for kids!" I can all but guarantee my 3 year old son will be terrified of that thing. Kids get freaked out by the Phanatic, and that thing is 100x crazier to look at. I would also like to talk to whomever put that whole thing together and then thought, "You know what, this guy needs googly eyes!"

[Kilgore Trout]

The eyes are genuinely unsettling.

[Hovercraft]

I can't believe Gritty is real but he does seem hilarious.

Lehtera is apparently a suspect in a finnish cocaine trafficking case. So that's great.

[Kilgore Trout]

Maybe they can cut him for that.

[chaosof99]

Dean Lombardi on the case.

[CantSeeColors]

They don't need to cut him, they're just going to ship him up the NE Extension.

[Hovercraft]

Leier and Weise cleared waivers. We picked up Pickard (G) from TOR. I guess he'll backup Elliot with Neuvirth hurt.

[FlyHigh]

Lehtera apparently will be in the opening night lineup, buckle up.

[chaosof99]

Eric Wellwood is becoming a head coach in the OHL

[Konecny HypeTrain Captain]

Didn't somebody show him the forum name one time? Could've sworn I remember one of you fucks meeting him somewhere and telling him about it.

[JLHockeyKnight]

Didn't somebody show him the forum name one time? Could've sworn I remember one of you fucks meeting him somewhere and telling him about it.

Someone definitely did.

[DeadPhish]

We traded Weise and Folin to the Canadiens for Schlemko and Froese.

[chaosof99]

We've traded Stolarz to Edmonton for Cam Talbot. I think that is a bad trade overall. Edmonton has all the benefits, and with Hart I don't think Stolarz was ever going to be a starter here, I think he was our best option for backup next season, though I understand why the organization would be nervous to start the season with such an inexperienced tandem. Talbot is okay, but also needs a new contract next season. All of this amounts to us doing Edmonton a solid, giving them cap relief, for no additional value. They could have at least thrown in a 7th round pick or something, but maybe "future considerations" are implicit in those kinds of deals. Also basically means that Elliott will be traded soon-ish. Apparently Talbot is also best friends with Hart, or at least they're off-season training partners.

[jester]

Stolie hasn't proven he can stay healthy for any stretch. Tough to go into next year counting on him as a backup. Don't have a strong opinion on Talbot, but it gives the Flyers exclusive negotiating rights and a test drive this season.

[jester]

Added aspect: it seems Stolarz was pretty much assured of being an UFA this summer, and all things being equal I bet he would have looked to sign elsewhere.

[FlyHigh]

I don’t mind it, Talbot had a really good track record before getting run into the ground a couple years ago and then the Oilers have been a total crapshow, change of scenery could be good. And Hart is probably the most important prospect we’ve had since Lindros, anything that gets him more comfortable is worth it.

[JLHockeyKnight]

Added aspect: it seems Stolarz was pretty much assured of being an UFA this summer, and all things being equal I bet he would have looked to sign elsewhere.

With him becoming a UFA and Hart clearly being our future starter, I fully expected Stolarz to test the open market for a starting role. So I think this trade benefits him immensely since I wouldn't expect him to start many games here the rest of the year. While his injuries sucked, I do feel a sense of loyalty to our players to give them a chance to prove themselves elsewhere if we won't be using them to their fullest extent. I see it at work all the time; if a supervisor doesn't support an employee's career goals which are outside of the supervisor's group, and tries to restrict them from leaving, it's a really ugly breakup. If the supervisor accepts they'll eventually move on, plan accordingly to replace them, and support the employee in their career goals, I've seen plenty of times where that employee comes back around in their new role in a way that benefits the supervisor and their group. Puts in a good word for the supervisor, does something supportive of their group, etc.

If Talbot walks this off-season I think we can find a solid backup to sign for a reasonable price.

[Hovercraft]

I think it's a low risk move, hopefully Talbot will stay around as a backup/1B for Hart for a year or 2. Apparently they train together and are friends so that's positive. He should be more reliable than any other other non Hart goalie we've had this year.

Definitely rooting for Stolarz to succeed though, good opportunity for him.

[Rogers Pancreas]

The Flyers should have come away with a mid-round pick for doing the Oilers a favor they needed done expeditiously. But, I'll be pulling for Stolarsz all the same. He wasn't going to get a fair shot in Philadelphia, and he's been a good sport all along. He deserves a chance to prove himself.

[JLHockeyKnight]

I think it's a low risk move, hopefully Talbot will stay around as a backup/1B for Hart for a year or 2. Apparently they train together and are friends so that's positive. He should be more reliable than any other other non Hart goalie we've had this year.

Definitely rooting for Stolarz to succeed though, good opportunity for him.

I did get a kick reading on people complaining about this trade on Reddit and thinking to myself "this trade isn't a big deal, Talbot starts at most 4 games the rest of the year." Yeah, low risk.

[jester]

I think it's a low risk move, hopefully Talbot will stay around as a backup/1B for Hart for a year or 2. Apparently they train together and are friends so that's positive. He should be more reliable than any other other non Hart goalie we've had this year.

Definitely rooting for Stolarz to succeed though, good opportunity for him.

I did get a kick reading on people complaining about this trade on Reddit and thinking to myself "this trade isn't a big deal, Talbot starts at most 4 games the rest of the year." Yeah, low risk.

Well, hopefully he plays a few more games than that ... but definitely agree that people get way too animated about roster decisions around the margins.

[Rogers Pancreas]

I think it's a low risk move, hopefully Talbot will stay around as a backup/1B for Hart for a year or 2. Apparently they train together and are friends so that's positive. He should be more reliable than any other other non Hart goalie we've had this year.

Definitely rooting for Stolarz to succeed though, good opportunity for him.

I did get a kick reading on people complaining about this trade on Reddit and thinking to myself "this trade isn't a big deal, Talbot starts at most 4 games the rest of the year." Yeah, low risk.

Well, hopefully he plays a few more games than that ... but definitely agree that people get way too animated about roster decisions around the margins.

Yes and no.

The league affords every team x-amount of assets to construct a roster with. If you aren't actively trying to maximize the return on every asset that passes through the organization you're responsible for, you aren't actively competing for the Stanley Cup. You're just another bloke getting in the way.

[jester]

I did get a kick reading on people complaining about this trade on Reddit and thinking to myself "this trade isn't a big deal, Talbot starts at most 4 games the rest of the year." Yeah, low risk.

Well, hopefully he plays a few more games than that ... but definitely agree that people get way too animated about roster decisions around the margins.

Yes and no.

The league affords every team x-amount of assets to construct a roster with. If you aren't actively trying to maximize the return on every asset that passes through the organization you're responsible for, you aren't actively competing for the Stanley Cup. You're just another bloke getting in the way.

Sure, but people vastly overestimate the importance there. Chicago, LA, and Pittsburgh have won multiple cups because of top-end talent ... not because Taylor Leier is in the AHL, or a mid-20s goalie with limited experience and a lengthy injury record.

When you got the top end guys, that's when you can fret about the bottom of the roster.

[Rogers Pancreas]

Again. Yes and no.

You have a lower chance of finding success with guys from round three on, and they take longer to develop. That much is certain. You can draft the best player in the world, as the Oilers have done, and it won't mean a fucking thing unless you have a roster behind said player. The rub in all of this is, of course, is that the players you've drafted, regardless of where they're drafted and extenuating circumstances (i.e. injuries, diseases, fatalities), all tend to peak out between the ages of twenty-seven and thirty. So, in order to be as good as you can be, your players need to peak within (roughly speaking) a five year window. Otherwise, the roster is in constant flux, and you're drafting in the ten to twenty range until the end of time. Like the Flyers.

The ideal scenario, which hardly anyone fucking does, is to load up on late round selections early in the building process as well as additional mid-late first-round picks; you do this because you know it's going to take a while to find out what you really have there. And also, you know that first-round picks can be valuable in other ways beyond just the draft. Do not give up the first-round entirely, but use it instead on a player in the fifteen to thirty range after dropping down a couple of times because, in all likelihood, they're still a couple years away themselves. This process should be repeated at least one more time, at which point a team can really turn the suck on, and come away with (hopefully) those franchise players. By then, those mid-late first-round picks are breaking onto the scene at the same time as your star players to be, and the late-round picks are taking shape.

The Blackhawks, Los Angeles, Pittsburgh, yeah they won on the backs of their star forwards. But there have plenty of teams that failed because they couldn't surround those guys with talent. Atlanta, Edmonton, New York (Islanders), BUFFALO, etc. You need the whole thing.

[jester]

Yeah, you're skimming past my point. Yes, you need depth. No, you shouldn't have a conniption about roster moves at the margins. There are a lot of serviceable guys at the margins if put in the right role, and you aren't winning and losing based on those guys at a basic level.

You just rattled off teams with much bigger problems than the last few guys on the roster. Edmonton has 5 guys clearing 20 pts right now. FIVE. They had 3 players clear 40 pts last year. Their problem isn't filling out the bottom of the roster, it's filling out the top of the roster.

BTW, a middling Flyers squad had 7 clear 40 pts last year. A stacked TB squad had 9.

[Kilgore Trout]

I don’t put the same amount of thought into buying lunch that I would a new car. Neither should the Flyers.

[jester]

I don’t put the same amount of thought into buying lunch that I would a new car. Neither should the Flyers.

Depending where you are, maybe you should. Food poisoning is no joke.

[FlyHigh]

The issue is when talent evaluation failures start to effective meaningful lineup decisions. Guys like Leier were symptoms of a broader problem. Sure, Leier vs. VDV isn't a big deal in the context of an 82-game season, completely agree.

On the other hand, the organizational belief that Brandon Manning and Andrew MacDonald are better NHLers than Travis Sanheim and playing them ahead of him in an actual playoff series was...more of an issue.

I'd also add that Pitt only started contending strongly again when they stopped relying on overpaid vets and found guys like Guentzel/Rust/Sheary, etc.

[jester]

The issue is when talent evaluation failures start to effective meaningful lineup decisions. Guys like Leier were symptoms of a broader problem. Sure, Leier vs. VDV isn't a big deal in the context of an 82-game season, completely agree.

On the other hand, the organizational belief that Brandon Manning and Andrew MacDonald are better NHLers than Travis Sanheim and playing them ahead of him in an actual playoff series was...more of an issue.

Every coach is going to have favorites ... and, look, I wish Sanheim got more time last year, but the hard reality is that he did very little to "earn" more time beyond the process stuff that analytics favors. He was an offense-fist, work-in-progress defensively D last year that wasn't producing much offensively despite his good underlying numbers. If he had put up points, he would have earned more ice time.

This team has had a pretty mediocre lineup in recent years, and none of these decisions had much of an impact on that reality.

I'd also add that Pitt only started contending strongly again when they stopped relying on overpaid vets and found guys like Guentzel/Rust/Sheary, etc.

... since '05-'06, the Penguins have a single season where they finished below 2nd in the division and consistently been a 100+ point team. Their problems tended to have less to do with depth, and more to do with the fact that they only sometimes wanted to play two-way hockey which burned them come playoff time (e.g., their infamous series with us). Not to mention a couple of MAF meltdowns. Lets not act like they slinked into obscurity and struggled.

But, yes, you're absolutely better off if you have better role players ... but Guentzel/Rust/Sheary are not the guys I am talking about. All of those guys were not marginal players on the roster when they arrived. Guentzel and Sheary played almost 16 minutes a night when they last won the cup, and both scored at 60+ point pace that season. Rust was 24 years old that season (after some cups of coffee), ditto for Sheary after a minor role the year before, and Guentzel destroyed the AHL before getting the call up that year (22). Sanheim is 22 right now, and playing a much harder position.

That ain't the margins of the roster, in any event.

[Hovercraft]

We can clearly see how much Hakstol was holding back guys like Sanheim/Lindblom especially now with how much their roles and play has improved under Gordon. Our team is mediocre, just let the young guys play and develop in key roles and accept some growing pains.

[jester]

We can clearly see how much Hakstol was holding back guys like Sanheim/Lindblom especially now with how much their roles and play has improved under Gordon.

To an extent ... but we also pretty routinely see young players take steps in the second half of seasons. It is also sometimes pretty complicated. Ghost flourished a year ago, but struggled this year under Hakstol ... why? Patrick didn't build off his second half last year and only started to come around lately. Why?

[Hovercraft]

Either way, playing Sanheim like ~12 mins a game with no special teams was poor usage by Hak. Young players are hard to predict and very inconsistent but you have to at least give them minutes and let them learn.

[jester]

Either way, playing Sanheim like ~12 mins a game with no special teams was poor usage by Hak. Young players are hard to predict and very inconsistent but you have to at least give them minutes and let them learn.

Easier said than done when you're worried about getting fired. There's a reason coaches are generally pretty conservative with young players.

[JLHockeyKnight]

So after the last 2 games, are we sellers this weekend?

[jester]

So after the last 2 games, are we sellers this weekend?

Should move Simmonds. Not sure I'd get too aggressive beyond that

[CantSeeColors]

Should have been sellers even before that, but beyond Simmonds the only worthwhile expiring player we have is raffl.

[jester]

Well that all escalated quickly and got more fun.

[chaosof99]

Thank fuck we finally managed to win an outdoor game, even with a bit of luck.

[Konecny HypeTrain Captain]

[Hovercraft]

Gonna be sad to see Simmonds go but its the right business decision. Hopefully he can go win a cup.

Deadline prices are pretty high, Dzingel and Montour returned a crazy amount. Interested to see how much we can get for Simmonds

[FlyHigh]

Lower price on Nyquist though. Unless someone gets desperate at this point, I'd be quite surprised if they got a 1st for him, I think teams are too smart now. There's a difference between guys like Hayes and Wayne Train unfortunately.

[jester]

So, yeah, NHL GMs are not unaware of Simmonds' limitations. Good luck to him.